SCOTUS Watch

[noxiousdog]

I totally get what he's saying.

Did you ever talk about Mueller or the investigation with someone who works for Exxon? Maybe? Exxon employs a lot of people.

Why didn't she just be more specific?

I think its fair he should have said "probably."

It is a law firm directly tied to Trump. She literally named the lawyer involved. The fact that he pretends not to know the name of the firm was preposterous and frankly a huge tell. Once he did that he was caught. Lee threw him a lifeline for a reason - he was flat out caught out.

Is there some reason to believe he actually has discussed it with someone at the firm?

[geezer]

I totally get what he's saying.

Did you ever talk about Mueller or the investigation with someone who works for Exxon? Maybe? Exxon employs a lot of people.

Why didn't she just be more specific?

I think its fair he should have said "probably."

It is a law firm directly tied to Trump. She literally named the lawyer involved. The fact that he pretends not to know the name of the firm was preposterous and frankly a huge tell. Once he did that he was caught. Lee threw him a lifeline for a reason - he was flat out caught out.

Is there some reason to believe he actually has discussed it with someone at the firm?

She claimed she had credible information that he did. I don't recall if it was in the CNN clip or elsewhere that I saw that.

[noxiousdog]

I totally get what he's saying.

Did you ever talk about Mueller or the investigation with someone who works for Exxon? Maybe? Exxon employs a lot of people.

Why didn't she just be more specific?

I think its fair he should have said "probably."

It is a law firm directly tied to Trump. She literally named the lawyer involved. The fact that he pretends not to know the name of the firm was preposterous and frankly a huge tell. Once he did that he was caught. Lee threw him a lifeline for a reason - he was flat out caught out.

Is there some reason to believe he actually has discussed it with someone at the firm?

She claimed she had credible information that he did. I don't recall if it was in the CNN clip or elsewhere that I saw that.

Why didn't she just ask a more specific question?

[malchior]

I totally get what he's saying.

Did you ever talk about Mueller or the investigation with someone who works for Exxon? Maybe? Exxon employs a lot of people.

Why didn't she just be more specific?

I think its fair he should have said "probably."

It is a law firm directly tied to Trump. She literally named the lawyer involved. The fact that he pretends not to know the name of the firm was preposterous and frankly a huge tell. Once he did that he was caught. Lee threw him a lifeline for a reason - he was flat out caught out.

Is there some reason to believe he actually has discussed it with someone at the firm?

It never came to that. I however doubt she asked the question without knowing the answer. She said it was very specific for a reason. Again the guy nominated for the SCOTUS pretended to not know a law firm that represents the President who nominated him. There is a 0% chance that was real.

[noxiousdog]

It never came to that. I however doubt she asked the question without knowing the answer. She said it was very specific for a reason. Again the guy nominated for the SCOTUS pretended to not know a law firm that represents the President who nominated him. There is a 0% chance that was real.

Ok. Fair enough. I wish she would have said it like that.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

BREAKING: Kavanaugh testified he never received any docs that even “appeared to … have been drafted or prepared by Democratic staff.” Well, he got 8 pages of material taken VERBATIM from my files, obviously written by Dem staff, LABELED “not [for] distribution”.

Wait - so what's happening here? Someone on Leahy's staff sent documents to Kavanaugh to help him prepare?

[malchior]

It never came to that. I however doubt she asked the question without knowing the answer. She said it was very specific for a reason. Again the guy nominated for the SCOTUS pretended to not know a law firm that represents the President who nominated him. There is a 0% chance that was real.

Ok. Fair enough. I wish she would have said it like that.

I think she might have gotten there but she was getting interrupted. Also she probably reasoned she made the point above and the clock was running. The trouble is he wiggled out IMO by avoiding it. It won't be used in his eventual impeachment. (Kidding...hopeful kidding...since this guy is incredibly crooked and this whole thing is a goddamn shame).

[malchior]

BREAKING: Kavanaugh testified he never received any docs that even “appeared to … have been drafted or prepared by Democratic staff.” Well, he got 8 pages of material taken VERBATIM from my files, obviously written by Dem staff, LABELED “not [for] distribution”.

Wait - so what's happening here? Someone on Leahy's staff sent documents to Kavanaugh to help him prepare?

No No. This is some wayback machine stuff. Back in the day someone stole documents from Leahy's office and provided it to people amongst them Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh testified in the past and in this process that he never saw any "spy" emails come to his attention. Leahy is basically saying how can he pretend to not know considering it literally was "marketed" as spy material and was stamped with confidentiality markers.

TLDR; Kavanaugh has basically been caught with his hand in the cookie jar and possibly perjured himself to Congress in the past and present. Much SCOTUS very WOW.

[GreenGoo]

Wait - so what's happening here? Someone on Leahy's staff sent documents to Kavanaugh to help him prepare?

Thanks for asking. I've given up even trying to follow along at home.

[El Guapo]

BREAKING: Kavanaugh testified he never received any docs that even “appeared to … have been drafted or prepared by Democratic staff.” Well, he got 8 pages of material taken VERBATIM from my files, obviously written by Dem staff, LABELED “not [for] distribution”.

Wait - so what's happening here? Someone on Leahy's staff sent documents to Kavanaugh to help him prepare?

No No. This is some wayback machine stuff. Back in the day someone stole documents from Leahy's office and provided it to people amongst them Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh testified in the past and in this process that he never saw any "spy" emails come to his attention. Leahy is basically saying how can he pretend to not know considering it literally was "marketed" as spy material and was stamped with confidentiality markers.

TLDR; Kavanaugh has basically been caught with his hand in the cookie jar and possibly perjured himself to Congress in the past and present. Much SCOTUS very WOW.

Yeah, this relates to the confirmation process of various W. Bush court appointees, including Kavanaugh. The e-mails were stolen in order to help the nominees prepare for Democratic questioning at their confirmation hearing.

[Holman]

Of course it's a thread.

This guy isn't Trump's creation. He was already a damned lying ideologue when Trump was still just a tabloid-level punchline.

[Moliere]

Cory Booker Risks Senate Expulsion, Releases Confidential Kavanaugh Emails About 'Racial Profiling'

[msteelers]

Cory Booker Risks Senate Expulsion, Releases Confidential Kavanaugh Emails About 'Racial Profiling'

The GOP supposedly cleared those documents for release the night before. But I'm sure Booker would love for you to think he could be kicked out of the Senate.

[Zarathud]

Booker would also like you to notice the nomination process is so rushed that no one knows what documents they can refer to. Not a single Republican knew the email was unclassified at the time.

That said, I would have preferred that the Democrats establish Kavanaugh has a clear bias despite claiming to "just follow the law" and "better arguments." As someone who was heavily involved in preparing Bush nominees, his agenda is well-known.

[Defiant]

Brett Kavanaugh Referred to Contraception as 'Abortion-Inducing Drugs' During Confirmation Hearing

[Vorret]

Brett Kavanaugh Referred to Contraception as 'Abortion-Inducing Drugs' During Confirmation Hearing

is this real life?

[Holman]

Maddow made the interesting point last night that the Dems are not just throwing a fit for the sake of political theater.

The "committee confidential" documents being highlighted have not been seen by non-committee Republicans either. When Dems show private emails where Kavanaugh discusses the possibility of overturning Roe, it very publicly demolishes Kav's assurance to Senators Collins and Murkowski (both pro-choice Republicans) that "Roe is settled law." When they show emails where Kav dismisses the concerns and status (and funding) of native peoples in Hawaii and Alaska, it puts Murkowski on the spot over an issue that matters to her state.

There are a couple more targeted examples like this, all designed to give a small number of Republicans very particular, local reasons to withdraw support if it looks like Kav is taking on too much water.

He'll probably still be confirmed, but it's no longer a foregone conclusion.

[malchior]

Maddow made the interesting point last night that the Dems are not just throwing a fit for the sake of political theater.

The "committee confidential" documents being highlighted have not been seen by non-committee Republicans either. When Dems show private emails where Kavanaugh discusses the possibility of overturning Roe, it very publicly demolishes Kav's assurance to Senators Collins and Murkowski (both pro-choice Republicans) that "Roe is settled law." When they show emails where Kav dismisses the concerns and status (and funding) of native peoples in Hawaii and Alaska, it puts Murkowski on the spot over an issue that matters to her state.

There are a couple more targeted examples like this, all designed to give a small number of Republicans very particular, local reasons to withdraw support if it looks like Kav is taking on too much water.

He'll probably still be confirmed, but it's no longer a foregone conclusion.

As in now there is a 99.999% chance of confirmation? This is all theater. This is just more reinforcement that our government is completely broken. The Republicans are abusing the process so the Dems are 'acting out'. They are being called petulant but honestly it is more like a jester pointing out that this is a farce (and flexing for 2020 -natch). It feels that the serious types are criticizing it out of some misguided duty to keep pretending this is still a legitimate process.

[El Guapo]

Booker would also like you to notice the nomination process is so rushed that no one knows what documents they can refer to. Not a single Republican knew the email was unclassified at the time.

That said, I would have preferred that the Democrats establish Kavanaugh has a clear bias despite claiming to "just follow the law" and "better arguments." As someone who was heavily involved in preparing Bush nominees, his agenda is well-known.

Also my understanding is that Booker referred to the documents in the hearings on Tuesday evening, *before* they were cleared for public release. The in hearing arguments on this were Wednesday after they were cleared, but when Booker first referred to them in hearing they were not.

[El Guapo]

Maddow made the interesting point last night that the Dems are not just throwing a fit for the sake of political theater.

The "committee confidential" documents being highlighted have not been seen by non-committee Republicans either. When Dems show private emails where Kavanaugh discusses the possibility of overturning Roe, it very publicly demolishes Kav's assurance to Senators Collins and Murkowski (both pro-choice Republicans) that "Roe is settled law." When they show emails where Kav dismisses the concerns and status (and funding) of native peoples in Hawaii and Alaska, it puts Murkowski on the spot over an issue that matters to her state.

There are a couple more targeted examples like this, all designed to give a small number of Republicans very particular, local reasons to withdraw support if it looks like Kav is taking on too much water.

He'll probably still be confirmed, but it's no longer a foregone conclusion.

As in now there is a 99.999% chance of confirmation? This is all theater. This is just more reinforcement that our government is completely broken. The Republicans are abusing the process so the Dems are 'acting out'. They are being called petulant but honestly it is more like a jester pointing out that this is a farce (and flexing for 2020 -natch). It feels that the serious types are criticizing it out of some misguided duty to keep pretending this is still a legitimate process.

His chance of confirmation isn't 99.999%. It's very likely, but likely in the order of 90% - heavy favorite, not a sure thing. Republicans have a thin margin for error, and polling already shows Kavanaugh underwater in terms of public support (e.g., more people think he should be rejected than confirmed). Now, this is important enough to both establishment and conservative Republicans that they'll swallow a lot of unpopularity in order to confirm him (they were willing to do the same in health care and taxes, by reference), but it is absolutely worth democrats taking a lot of shots to see if they can find something that resonates with (say) Collins, Murkowski, Heller, etc. Or that will get people to start knocking down Collins's door.

[malchior]

That is old world thinking. Pre-Trump thinking. Kavanaugh has been pretty much caught perjuring himself. For this, he has so far received a pass so I still put his odds at way higher than 90%. There is no thin margin since this is a sham. Everyone of these R Senators knows they'll be put on Twitter blast if they don't toe the line. They are all scared of Trump. That much is certain. They'll pretend to be concerned about his positions but they have no good reason to vote No. Thus, I also agree that the Dems should take shots because why the hell not. We don't live in a world with meaningful consequences anymore...well importantly except for the angry polarized primary voter but that only makes this whole thing worse.

[El Guapo]

That is old world thinking. Pre-Trump thinking. Kavanaugh has been pretty much caught perjuring himself. For this, he has so far received a pass so I still put his odds at way higher than 90%. There is no thin margin since this is a sham. Everyone of these R Senators knows they'll be put on Twitter blast if they don't toe the line. They are all scared of Trump. That much is certain. They'll pretend to be concerned about his positions but they have no good reason to vote No. Thus, I also agree that the Dems should take shots because why the hell not. We don't live in a world with meaningful consequences anymore...well importantly except for the angry polarized primary voter but that only makes this whole thing worse.

I don't want to get too hung up on specific odds. I'm just saying that there's a non-zero chance that he gets voted down, basically dependent upon the right kind of political bomb coming out of his White House documents. Remember that McConnell didn't want Kavanaugh (reports are due to fears about his White House documents potentially being a problem), and the conservative base didn't really want Kavanaugh (they wanted Barrett, who is younger and more evangelical). So it's just that the right amount of pressure could cause the whole thing to collapse. Very unlikely, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.

[malchior]

That is old world thinking. Pre-Trump thinking. Kavanaugh has been pretty much caught perjuring himself. For this, he has so far received a pass so I still put his odds at way higher than 90%. There is no thin margin since this is a sham. Everyone of these R Senators knows they'll be put on Twitter blast if they don't toe the line. They are all scared of Trump. That much is certain. They'll pretend to be concerned about his positions but they have no good reason to vote No. Thus, I also agree that the Dems should take shots because why the hell not. We don't live in a world with meaningful consequences anymore...well importantly except for the angry polarized primary voter but that only makes this whole thing worse.

I don't want to get too hung up on specific odds. I'm just saying that there's a non-zero chance that he gets voted down, basically dependent upon the right kind of political bomb coming out of his White House documents. Remember that McConnell didn't want Kavanaugh (reports are due to fears about his White House documents potentially being a problem), and the conservative base didn't really want Kavanaugh (they wanted Barrett, who is younger and more evangelical). So it's just that the right amount of pressure could cause the whole thing to collapse. Very unlikely, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.

Fair enough. I don't think McConnell factors in much anymore. Meaning once the die was cast McConnell was going to ensure the railroading happened no matter what. Also, the base might have been against it but the great leader picked someone. In other words, once the die was cast the fix was in. The real action was before he was announced. Deep in the drained swamp.

[El Guapo]

That is old world thinking. Pre-Trump thinking. Kavanaugh has been pretty much caught perjuring himself. For this, he has so far received a pass so I still put his odds at way higher than 90%. There is no thin margin since this is a sham. Everyone of these R Senators knows they'll be put on Twitter blast if they don't toe the line. They are all scared of Trump. That much is certain. They'll pretend to be concerned about his positions but they have no good reason to vote No. Thus, I also agree that the Dems should take shots because why the hell not. We don't live in a world with meaningful consequences anymore...well importantly except for the angry polarized primary voter but that only makes this whole thing worse.

I don't want to get too hung up on specific odds. I'm just saying that there's a non-zero chance that he gets voted down, basically dependent upon the right kind of political bomb coming out of his White House documents. Remember that McConnell didn't want Kavanaugh (reports are due to fears about his White House documents potentially being a problem), and the conservative base didn't really want Kavanaugh (they wanted Barrett, who is younger and more evangelical). So it's just that the right amount of pressure could cause the whole thing to collapse. Very unlikely, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.

Fair enough. I don't think McConnell factors in much anymore. Meaning once the die was cast McConnell was going to ensure the railroading happened no matter what. Also, the base might have been against it but the great leader picked someone. In other words, once the die was cast the fix was in. The real action was before he was announced. Deep in the drained swamp.

It just sort of expands the range of problematic bombs. Like say he sent some e-mail in 2003 that was basically, "I don't really give a shit about abortion but I gotta go along with it to satisfy the religious zealots around here."

[Paingod]

it very publicly demolishes Kav's assurance to Senators Collins and Murkowski (both pro-choice Republicans) that "Roe is settled law."

Left a message with Collins to remind her to vote "No" on someone she knows is lying to her, or more importantly, the public knows is lying to her.

None of my other calls have mattered, though. The best I get to do is try to vote her out.

[Paingod]

So there's a campaign up here in Maine asking people to make a minimum donation of $20.20 - and the collection will go to an opponent of Collins if she votes for Kavanaugh. Her office is calling it "Bribery" - only it's not at all, as far as I can tell. It's more of a promise that she's out if she votes Yes.

So far they've got $1m in contributions.

[Max Peck]

That's literally the exact opposite of bribery. Has Collins learned nothing about political corruption from the Trump administration?

[Zaxxon]

I feel like we need a link to donate to that campaign, as well as Beto O'Rourke's vs Cruz in TX.

[Vorret]

there you go

https://www.crowdpac.com/campaigns/3874 ... e-opponent

[El Guapo]

That's literally the exact opposite of bribery. Has Collins learned nothing about political corruption from the Trump administration?

I mean, I wouldn't call it the exact opposite of bribery. It's a promise of a net gain of campaign funds (not donating to your political opponent) in exchange for the carrying out of an official act (voting against Kavanaugh).

That said, calling this bribery would call into question the legality of the conduct of huge numbers of PACs / interest groups / campaign donations. "We'll only support you in the next election if you're with us on this" is pretty standard, and the promise of campaign donations with that support is pretty well explicit.

[Max Peck]

That's literally the exact opposite of bribery. Has Collins learned nothing about political corruption from the Trump administration?

I mean, I wouldn't call it the exact opposite of bribery. It's a promise of a net gain of campaign funds (not donating to your political opponent) in exchange for the carrying out of an official act (voting against Kavanaugh).

That said, calling this bribery would call into question the legality of the conduct of huge numbers of PACs / interest groups / campaign donations. "We'll only support you in the next election if you're with us on this" is pretty standard, and the promise of campaign donations with that support is pretty well explicit.

I wasn't looking at as a bribe offered to Collins. In that context, it seems more like extortion ("That's a nice campaign advantage you have there. It'd be a shame if you were outspent."). At any rate, I suspect that most people that were willing to sign on for this will end up donating to the Democratic candidate regardless of how Collins votes on Kavanaugh.

[Defiant]

Murkowski pressured by Natives to vote ‘no’ on Kavanaugh

Pence acknowledges tie-breaker may be needed to confirm Kavanaugh

Of course, my guess is that if Collins or Murkowski vote no, you'll still have one or two or maybe three vulnerable Democrats voting yes. Although if both of them vote yes, then I would think that the Democrats might all vote no.

[Paingod]

At any rate, I suspect that most people that were willing to sign on for this will end up donating to the Democratic candidate regardless of how Collins votes on Kavanaugh.

Mainers aren't highly rigid in their political beliefs. It's the reason we have Angus King, Independent, out there. Funding her opposition could easily hamstring her. Her voters aren't strictly Red or Dead.

[Zarathud]

Supreme Court has already called this free speech. Kavanaugh would only make it worse, so she'd better vote against him for that reason.

[Defiant]

At any rate, I suspect that most people that were willing to sign on for this will end up donating to the Democratic candidate regardless of how Collins votes on Kavanaugh.

My guess is that most of these are coming from out of the state, and my understanding is that Collins is probably looking to run for Governor rather than run for reelection. I think if she does, those people from out of state would look elsewhere or not donate. Governor's have less influence outside of their state than a Senator does (they do sometimes have influence in gerrymandering, but that probably doesn't matter as much in a small state like Maine), and I would also think governor's are less likely to be as partisan as an equivalent Senator (where you're generally pressured to vote with your party).

[Paingod]

I would also think governor's are less likely to be as partisan as an equivalent Senator (where you're generally pressured to vote with your party).

Maine Republican Governor Paul LePage is like a little Trump. He was embarrassing Maine before Trump started mooning our allies. I don't know how he got elected and re-elected.

[El Guapo]

At any rate, I suspect that most people that were willing to sign on for this will end up donating to the Democratic candidate regardless of how Collins votes on Kavanaugh.

My guess is that most of these are coming from out of the state, and my understanding is that Collins is probably looking to run for Governor rather than run for reelection. I think if she does, those people from out of state would look elsewhere or not donate. Governor's have less influence outside of their state than a Senator does (they do sometimes have influence in gerrymandering, but that probably doesn't matter as much in a small state like Maine), and I would also think governor's are less likely to be as partisan as an equivalent Senator (where you're generally pressured to vote with your party).

The Maine governor's race is this year. Collins gave a lot of thought to leaving the Senate to run for governor, but decided not to, apparently in favor in seeking Senate reelection in 2020.

[El Guapo]

I would also think governor's are less likely to be as partisan as an equivalent Senator (where you're generally pressured to vote with your party).

Maine Republican Governor Paul LePage is like a little Trump. He was embarrassing Maine before Trump started mooning our allies. I don't know how he got elected and re-elected.

He got elected and reelected because both times the left wing ran more than one candidate, dividing the non LePage vote. He never got a majority vote either time - I think the highest percentage of the vote he ever got was like in the mid-40s.

So well done, Maine liberals.

[Defiant]

The Maine governor's race is this year. Collins gave a lot of thought to leaving the Senate to run for governor, but decided not to, apparently in favor in seeking Senate reelection in 2020.

Ah, ok. For some reason I had thought it was for the next run, in 2022, but I guess I just got confused.

[Captain Caveman]

What is going on here?



https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/stat ... 1741058049

Edit: From an article at the Intercept:

Different sources provided different accounts of the contents of the letter, and some of the sources said they themselves had heard different versions, but the one consistent theme was that it describes an incident involving Kavanaugh and a woman while they were in high school. Kept hidden, the letter is beginning to take on a life of its own.

The woman who is the subject of the letter is now being represented by Debra Katz, a whistleblower attorney who works with #MeToo survivors.