The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Max Peck]

Former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos sentenced to 14 days in plea deal with Mueller probe

A once low-profile foreign policy campaign adviser whose offhand remark in a London bar in May 2016 helped trigger an FBI counterintelligence investigation into President Trump’s campaign was sentenced to 14 days of incarceration Friday by a federal judge in Washington.

George Papadopoulos, 31, pleaded guilty in October to lying to the FBI about key details of his conversations with a London-based professor who had told him the Russians held “dirt,” in the form of thousands of emails, on Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Papadopoulos tried futilely for months to arrange a meeting between top campaign aides and Russian officials.

In asking the court for leniency, Papadopoulos said he made “a terrible mistake, for which I have paid a terrible price, and am deeply ashamed,” and that he was motivated to lie to the FBI try to “create distance between the issue, myself, and the president.”

In hindsight, he said in court, he recognizes that was wrong and “might have harmed the investigation.”

Sure, it seems like a harsh sentence, but at least there's hope that Trump might pardon him.

[Pyperkub]

Manafort seeking plea deal in second trial?

Paul Manafort’s lawyers have talked to U.S. prosecutors about a possible guilty plea to avert a second criminal trial set to begin in Washington this month, according to a person familiar with the matter...

...Manafort, President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, was convicted of bank and tax fraud last month in a Virginia federal court. He’s accused in Washington of financial crimes including conspiring to launder money, as well as acting as an unregistered foreign agent of Ukraine and obstructing justice.

The negotiations over a potential plea deal have centered on which charges Manafort might admit and the length of the sentence to be recommended by prosecutors working for Special Counsel Robert Mueller

And the NY State is going after the Trump Org execs:

The Trump Organization is a stable of private companies heavily invested in real estate that’s been run by the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, since he took office.

Central to the inquiry will be longtime Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg, who has already provided narrow cooperation with authorities over Cohen’s activities and hush agreements, according to the person. It’s not clear whether Weisselberg is a focus of the continuing inquiry.

Weisselberg didn’t respond to emails and phones calls seeking comment.

Last month, prosecutors said in indicting Cohen that two Trump company executives -- one of whom is believed to be Weisselberg -- approved the improper payments to Cohen in violation of campaign-finance laws. Investigators are looking at those people and others who may have been aware of the activities, according to the person.

[Scoop20906]

Manafort to plead guilty tomorrow. Heard it on MSNBC. Not sure about cooperation.

[Max Peck]

He's probably cooperating with somebody, just maybe not Mueller.

[Smoove_B]

Manafort to plead guilty tomorrow. Heard it on MSNBC. Not sure about cooperation.

Cooperating

Paul Manafort, who once headed President Donald Trump's campaign, pleaded guilty Friday to conspiracy charges and has agreed to cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller's ongoing investigations under a new plea deal.

Manafort's plea deal with Mueller, which dramatically ramps up the legal and political danger already facing Trump, came just three days before Manafort was set to begin jury selection for the second of his two federal criminal trials.

Probably smart to do this during Hurricane Florence. Regardless, he's really sticking it to the libs!

[Pyperkub]

[Url=https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/ ... eal-823882[/url]

The deal dismisses deadlocked charges against Manafort from an earlier trial, but only after "successful cooperation” with Mueller’s probe into Russian election interference and whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Moscow on its efforts. Mueller prosecutor Andrew Weissmann did not immediately expand on what cooperation is required under the deal.

[Sepiche]

So any bets on how quickly Manafort goes from being a poor, average joe, ruthlessly attacked by the Mueller Cabal to "a dishonest criminal I had very few dealings with"?

[Zaxxon]

So any bets on how quickly Manafort goes from being a poor, average joe, ruthlessly attacked by the Mueller Cabal to "a dishonest criminal I had very few dealings with"?

I'ma gonna go with 'today.'

[Sepiche]

So any bets on how quickly Manafort goes from being a poor, average joe, ruthlessly attacked by the Mueller Cabal to "a dishonest criminal I had very few dealings with"?

I'ma gonna go with 'today.'

Boy, it's almost like Rudy Giuliani isn't a very smart person or good lawyer.

[GreenGoo]

Way, way out of his element. Plus, skeletons.

That's my take. He's got skeletons so bad that any time drumpf is even remotely threatened Guiliani goes into a cold, panicky sweat.

[LawBeefaroni]

So any bets on how quickly Manafort goes from being a poor, average joe, ruthlessly attacked by the Mueller Cabal to "a dishonest criminal I had very few dealings with"?

I thought he was a good capo. I can't keep track any more.

[Holman]

[LordMortis]

So any bets on how quickly Manafort goes from being a poor, average joe, ruthlessly attacked by the Mueller Cabal to "a dishonest criminal I had very few dealings with"?

I'ma gonna go with 'today.'

Sorry to disappoint today. He appears to be doing the minimum. He pretty much has his focus on Florence. Be that concern for his golf courses or vinyards he says he owns or the people. He's doing what he's supposed to, at least by all things twitter.

http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/archive

[GreenGoo]

Sorry to disappoint today. He appears to be doing the minimum. He pretty much has his focus on Florence. Be that concern for his golf courses or vinyards he says he owns or the people. He's doing what he's supposed to, at least by all things twitter.

http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/archive

I don't even have to look. If he's not tweeting about Manafort, then it's a surrogate posting on his account today. Zero chance it's him. He doesn't worry about anyone's wellbeing.

[LordMortis]

Sorry to disappoint today. He appears to be doing the minimum. He pretty much has his focus on Florence. Be that concern for his golf courses or vinyards he says he owns or the people. He's doing what he's supposed to, at least by all things twitter.

http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/archive

I don't even have to look. If he's not tweeting about Manafort, then it's a surrogate posting on his account today. Zero chance it's him. He doesn't worry about anyone's wellbeing.

It's definitely as a surrogate. His twitter is being used to broadcast prepared safety messages, encouragement, and status. You know the minimum....

[Zaxxon]

[Max Peck]

I know y'all are used to be saying "no, this is typical, it happens all the time," but I've never seen anything like that Manafort superseding information -- the charging instrument he'll plead to.

[non-sarcastic tag goes here]

/1

/2 Review: in federal court if you're charged with a felony you have a right to be indicted by grand jury. An "information" is a charging instrument used when (a) it's a minor crime for which indictment isn't required or (b) you're going to waive indictment and plead guilty.

/3 Informations are usually relatively concise and not too performative. This one is -- wow. It's 38 pages. It has EXHIBITS. I cannot remember ever seeing an Information with exhibits. Any other fedcrim practitioners out there ever see one?

/3 It's only two counts -- conspiracy to defraud the united states (all the pre-charge stuff he did) and conspiracy to obstruct justice (the post-charge witness tampering). But the descriptions are lavishly detailed.

/4 but actually 5 because i did two 3's:

Now, it's not unusual to have the defendant admit to a robust statement of facts. But this level of detail in the information strikes me as unusual. The exhibits are especially a novelty to me.

/6 I could be wrong of course. But it appears that the information is calculated to make it more politically painful to pardon Manafort -- to make a preemptive strike on the "he was unfairly prosecuted for old stuff that was nothing" narrative.

/7 Not yet seen: the plea agreement, which will discuss how the two cases (this DC one and the Virginia one where he was convicted) will be harmonized and what sentencing range they will be talking about.
/end

[Unagi]

This is a great win for Mueller
Take aways from the plea deal....


The plea offer, for your own reading:
https://doc-0o-a0-apps-viewer.googleuse ... qr7d5u6pr8


Summary:
Pleading guilty to 2 counts of conspiracy against the US. (max of 5 years each).
Manafort agrees that under the Sentencing Guidelines, the recommended sentencing range would be above 10 years - more like 18-23 years., and he agrees not to challenge that calculation, even though 10 years would be the max imposed in DC.
Government agrees to recommend that the sentence for the DC case and the Virginia convictions to run concurrently, however the recommendation for concurrent time is not binding on either the DC or Virginia court.


Manafort agrees to cooperate with Special Counsel's Office (aka "the Government") and "other law enforcement authorities identified by the Government in any and all matter as to which the Government deems the cooperation relevant." where in "other law enformcements" mostly likely will mean the state law enforcement authorities in New York or Virginia, where Trump's pardons have no power. Which of course could involve the potential prosecution of Jared Kushner or Donald Jr. who attended the 2016 Trump Tower Meeting with the Russians).

Manafort will drop his challenge to the Virginia convictions and will not appeal anything about the sentencing in the DC case.

Of note:
Manafort will not be sentenced until after his cooperation is completed, which could take years.

Until the cooperation is complete, the additional charges in Virginia where the jury was hung will remain pending, otherwise if they are satisfied with his cooperation - those hung charges will be dropped.

If the government is ever not satisfied with Manafort's cooperation, they can rip the whole deal up.


Manafort gives up about $45 million in assets to the government (perhaps paying for all of this).
And then there is language that appears to cover the possibility of an eventual pardon fixing the above forfeiture... the plea agreement specifically provides that the forfeitures "will survive him notwithstanding the abatement of any underlying criminal conviction".



So there is that.

[Max Peck]

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Down. Mueller’s Is Up. Is There A Connection?

Since taking office, President Trump has faced an onslaught of controversies — allegations of infidelity and shady connections with Russia, backlashes to family separations at the border and criticism of the government’s hurricane response. His poll numbers, although historically low, have remained relatively steady, giving rise to the idea that nothing can move opinions of Trump. That was never really true. And a drop in Trump’s approval ratings in recent weeks is further evidence of that.

What’s behind the decline in Trump’s approval rating? It’s impossible to pinpoint the exact cause(s), but polls released this week suggest that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia interference in the 2016 election might have a role in it all.

The important thing here is the timing: On Aug. 20, Trump had a net approval rating of -10 percentage points. On Aug. 21, Paul Manafort, former chairman of Trump’s presidential campaign, was found guilty of bank and tax fraud, and Michael Cohen, who used to be Trump’s lawyer, pleaded guilty to federal crimes related to the Trump campaign. Both were implicated as a result of Mueller’s investigation. And it’s really been since then that we’ve seen the movement in Trump’s approval rating (now -14 points), the generic congressional ballot and, notably, views of the Russia investigation itself.

[Holman]

link

This is incredibly reckless and an absurd attempt to sabotage the investigation.

There must be some pretty bad news coming--I don't the news that Flynn is ready for sentencing is enough by itself to provoke this.

Of course it seems likely to blow up in his face.

[malchior]

The tldr; version of the thread below - the former head of the DOJ natsec division is saying that Trump is overriding the judgement of experts in his own narrow interest. I'd saying a shocking abuse of power but it is Trump. Any one of these actions should be impeachable. Fuck the GOP.

[GreenGoo]

Don't worry, top men are on it, stealing things from his desk when he's not looking.

Problem solved!

[Blackhawk]

This one, more than anything else in this investigation, is terrifying.

[Holman]

It's going to be selective and de-contextualized. Expect a whole lot of nonsense similar to what they tried to make of the Strzok-Page texts.

Collusion2016 aside, Putin must be very pleased to see Trump attempting to ruin some of the FBI's top experts on the Russian mafia.

[Carpet_pissr]

This whole bit from Seth Meyers is hilarious, but especially the part where Manafort is equated to a broken down Chucky Cheese robot in trying to answer questions about Trump and Russia. Ha!!

https://youtu.be/MOAGsQzNI9E

[El Guapo]

Also, if this is (as Schiff indicates) a redline for the DOJ / FBI, I wonder if part of the point is to provoke people either to resign, or to be insubordinate and thereby justify firing.

[Blackhawk]

That's why I find this so terrifying. The White House and DOJ have been opponents for a while now, but this is drawing battle lines. And we all lose the battle.

[Holman]

I haven't followed up, but I saw commentary earlier that the "declassification order" is not an order, and thus has no teeth. There has been no directive issued beyond the public intention to do it.

As of when I read that this morning, there was no movement on the materials.

Maybe this is just a stunt to distract from:

--Kavanaugh's trainwreck
--Flynn getting sentenced
--Stormy Daniels publishing that Trump has a below-average sized, mushroom-shaped penis and "yeti pubes."

[Captain Caveman]

--Stormy Daniels publishing that Trump has a below-average sized, mushroom-shaped penis and "yeti pubes."

[pr0ner]

--Stormy Daniels publishing that Trump has a below-average sized, mushroom-shaped penis and "yeti pubes."

You'll never be able to look at Toad the same way again.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'm considering Googling "yeti pubes". Unless someone wants to save me the resulting ocular trauma and just give me an exec. summary? kthanks

[wonderpug]

I'm considering Googling "yeti pubes". Unless someone wants to save me the resulting ocular trauma and just give me an exec. summary? kthanks

Just picture Trump pubes, but less blue.

[Carpet_pissr]

Just picture Trump pubes

No.

[Carpet_pissr]

Also, what is the reference - are we talking Star Wars yeti, or Rudolph the RNR Christmas special from the 70's yeti? Maybe she's trying to be hip (or paid by a movie studio) and she's referencing/tying in to the yeti movie coming out now? (Smallfoot)

[Fitzy]

I'm considering Googling "yeti pubes". Unless someone wants to save me the resulting ocular trauma and just give me an exec. summary? kthanks

Very hairy and white

[Skinypupy]

I haven't followed up, but I saw commentary earlier that the "declassification order" is not an order, and thus has no teeth. There has been no directive issued beyond the public intention to do it.

As of when I read that this morning, there was no movement on the materials.

Maybe this is just a stunt to distract from:

--Kavanaugh's trainwreck
--Flynn getting sentenced
--Stormy Daniels publishing that Trump has a below-average sized, mushroom-shaped penis and "yeti pubes."

JUST IN: Asked for the actual presidential directive(s) referenced in the White House declassification-related statement, @PressSec Sanders told @BuzzFeedNews, "There isn't anything else, just the statement."

So they made a big statement to generate headlines, but haven't completed any of the required action to declassify the materials.

Might mean it's all just red meat for the base with no intention of actually following through on the request.

[Carpet_pissr]

So they made a big statement to generate headlines, but haven't completed any of the required action to declassify the materials.

Might mean it's all just red meat for the base with no intention of actually following through on the request.

Jesus, how many times have they done that? I'm not complaining, mind you, it's just a little pathetic and sad.

[GreenGoo]

Ok, lol for the pubes comments.

[Max Peck]

So they made a big statement to generate headlines, but haven't completed any of the required action to declassify the materials.

Might mean it's all just red meat for the base with no intention of actually following through on the request.

Jesus, how many times have they done that? I'm not complaining, mind you, it's just a little pathetic and sad.

It's just another example of how Deep State® obstruction is preventing Trump from saving America. #DrainTheSwamp

[Pyperkub]

Only declassifying until 8/1/2017.

Not long after the release of the Flynn status hearing, Trump ordered the release of yet more stuff on the Steele dossier (the stuff in the first paragraph), plus unredacted texts on what the investigation looked like before August 1, 2017...

...Depending on how much the various parties put into these texts (I doubt Comey was much of a texter, for example), this will show unbelievable detail on how FBI runs counterintelligence investigations.

But it will also show voters what the investigation looked like before some key evidence came in, such as the communications surrounding the June 9 meeting and whatever the FBI seized from Paul Manafort’s home. Andrew McCabe was the last person in a key role on this investigation, and Christopher Wray took over that role on August 1.

It’s a desperate gambit, I think, throwing the last of the Steele dossier details out there, plus a picture of what the investigation looked like before the FBI learned that the President’s son entered into a conspiracy with Russians exchanging Hillary emails for sanction relief.