SCOTUS Watch

[Carpet_pissr]

Double post.

Can't delete posts anymore? Weird

[Carpet_pissr]

I've stopped reading opinion pieces. They can be entertaining, but do little for political discourse.

That includes opinions from both sides. They often read like comment sections, only better written.

Which means I don't give a crap about opinions from authors with an agenda.

Dilly, dilly!

[msteelers]

I've stopped reading opinion pieces. They can be entertaining, but do little for political discourse.

That includes opinions from both sides. They often read like comment sections, only better written.

Which means I don't give a crap about opinions from authors with an agenda.

This. So much this.

[El Guapo]

If he does fall that'll push the nomination into lame duck for sure. They'll definitely do it but it'll be even less legitimate and will do immense damage to the nation. Especially if they lose the Senate. It will be bedlam. We are in a very dangerous period and the risks that we have some constitutional crack up just keep mounting. It is extremely scary.

The trick they're facing now is that the worst case scenario is that Kavanaugh lasts another 2 - 4 weeks, and *then* has to withdraw (after quite possibly further damaging the GOP midterm prospects in the meantime). If they restart now with another judge on the existing list (that doesn't have a bunch of documents from a previous stint in government that would need to be produced), then there's probably enough time to have hearings before the midterm. The judge might not be confirmed before the midterms, but if it's just a couple weeks afterwards, and the judge isn't a sex offender, the GOP can probably hold onto their caucus and get the judge confirmed.

But god, how excited must the GOP be to have an extremely public hearing about sexual assault allegations of their court nominee less than two months before the midterms, eh?

[Carpet_pissr]

If he does fall that'll push the nomination into lame duck for sure. They'll definitely do it but it'll be even less legitimate and will do immense damage to the nation. Especially if they lose the Senate. It will be bedlam. We are in a very dangerous period and the risks that we have some constitutional crack up just keep mounting. It is extremely scary.

The trick they're facing now is that the worst case scenario is that Kavanaugh lasts another 2 - 4 weeks, and *then* has to withdraw (after quite possibly further damaging the GOP midterm prospects in the meantime). If they restart now with another judge on the existing list (that doesn't have a bunch of documents from a previous stint in government that would need to be produced), then there's probably enough time to have hearings before the midterm. The judge might not be confirmed before the midterms, but if it's just a couple weeks afterwards, and the judge isn't a sex offender, the GOP can probably hold onto their caucus and get the judge confirmed.

But god, how excited must the GOP be to have an extremely public hearing about sexual assault allegations of their court nominee less than two months before the midterms, eh?

As others have said, I really don't think it hurts his chances much in the current political environment. On one hand we are in the middle of #metoo, but on the other hand, you have a trifecta of political power by the party that is mostly if not strongly "anti-#metoo". In this case, political power trumps social power I think.

[El Guapo]

If he does fall that'll push the nomination into lame duck for sure. They'll definitely do it but it'll be even less legitimate and will do immense damage to the nation. Especially if they lose the Senate. It will be bedlam. We are in a very dangerous period and the risks that we have some constitutional crack up just keep mounting. It is extremely scary.

The trick they're facing now is that the worst case scenario is that Kavanaugh lasts another 2 - 4 weeks, and *then* has to withdraw (after quite possibly further damaging the GOP midterm prospects in the meantime). If they restart now with another judge on the existing list (that doesn't have a bunch of documents from a previous stint in government that would need to be produced), then there's probably enough time to have hearings before the midterm. The judge might not be confirmed before the midterms, but if it's just a couple weeks afterwards, and the judge isn't a sex offender, the GOP can probably hold onto their caucus and get the judge confirmed.

But god, how excited must the GOP be to have an extremely public hearing about sexual assault allegations of their court nominee less than two months before the midterms, eh?

As others have said, I really don't think it hurts his chances much in the current political environment. On one hand we are in the middle of #metoo, but on the other hand, you have a trifecta of political power by the party that is mostly if not strongly "anti-#metoo". In this case, political power trumps social power I think.

Yeah, but even with McConnell and the GOP leadership being completely willing to disregard public opinion, there are still limits. Unless this is all part of a political science experiment to see if the GOP can actually drive its votes from college-educated women down to literally zero.

[El Guapo]

Powerful piece on Kavanaugh.

[Isgrimnur]

Powerful piece on Kavanaugh.

I love the Athletic.

[GreenGoo]

Not to belittle her experience, but we already knew things like this happen. Hearing a personal anecdote means nothing to me with regard to the case at hand.

There are literally thousands of true stories out there just like the one in this article.

Perhaps this is one of them. Perhaps not. How do you decide? Credibility of the the two involved?

Transposing personal experiences onto the two is neither helpful or honest, even if it is human.

[Kurth]

Not to belittle her experience, but we already knew things like this happen. Hearing a personal anecdote means nothing to me with regard to the case at hand.

There are literally thousands of true stories out there just like the one in this article.

Perhaps this is one of them. Perhaps not. How do you decide? Credibility of the the two involved?

Transposing personal experiences onto the two is neither helpful or honest, even if it is human.

So, honestly, what is going to happen if this hearing actually happens on Monday? Even if we assume these Senators are acting in good faith and willing to give both sides a fair hearing (and, to be clear, I do not believe that for a minute), how are they supposed to assess Kavanaugh and his accuser? How is something that happened 38 years ago supposed to be corroborated? Is it just a gut level credibility check? Is there any burden of proof or presumption that should be applied in favor of one party or the other?

Seems to me that those Senators that were going to vote for Kavanaugh are going to do so regardless and those who were not are not.

Someone tell me why this isn't all just shitty theater.

[Isgrimnur]

Maybe they'll put them both in the same room and perform some mediation.

[msteelers]

Not to belittle her experience, but we already knew things like this happen. Hearing a personal anecdote means nothing to me with regard to the case at hand.

There are literally thousands of true stories out there just like the one in this article.

Perhaps this is one of them. Perhaps not. How do you decide? Credibility of the the two involved?

Transposing personal experiences onto the two is neither helpful or honest, even if it is human.

On the way home last night I was listening to the Tom Sullivan show. The gist from the host and his callers were that even if the allegations are true she wasn't actually raped, and being almost raped isn't something that will traumatize you. That getting pinned to a bed and groped isn't a big deal.

So yeah, I think there's value in pieces like this.

[Captain Caveman]

Not to belittle her experience, but we already knew things like this happen. Hearing a personal anecdote means nothing to me with regard to the case at hand.

There are literally thousands of true stories out there just like the one in this article.

Perhaps this is one of them. Perhaps not. How do you decide? Credibility of the the two involved?

Transposing personal experiences onto the two is neither helpful or honest, even if it is human.

So, honestly, what is going to happen if this hearing actually happens on Monday? Even if we assume these Senators are acting in good faith and willing to give both sides a fair hearing (and, to be clear, I do not believe that for a minute), how are they supposed to assess Kavanaugh and his accuser? How is something that happened 38 years ago supposed to be corroborated? Is it just a gut level credibility check? Is there any burden of proof or presumption that should be applied in favor of one party or the other?

Seems to me that those Senators that were going to vote for Kavanaugh are going to do so regardless and those who were not are not.

Someone tell me why this isn't all just shitty theater.

If they only interview the two of them, it's shitty theater. According to her, Kavanaugh's friend was present, and well before Kavanaugh was on the SCOTUS radar, she talked about the incident with a therapist who has notes about it, and she told her husband and others. Seems strange if she was making up the allegations that she'd claim another person was present.

In any case, these are witnesses who all could be called to provide context and corroboration to her allegations. My guess is that they only want to hear from the two of them so they can manufacture "he said she said" ambiguity, contrast the allegations with what they perceive to be Kavanaugh's good character (his lying, IMO, calls this into question), and call it a day. But even that plan has a lot of uncertainty around what might happen and how the public will react, so my money is on somehow this not happening. It's incredibly risky politically for the GOP this close to the mid-term elections.

[GreenGoo]

Just because something is a foregone conclusion doesn't mean it's theater to give an opportunity for a victim's voice to be heard.

The ramifications of testifying against an SCOTUS nominee go far beyond his appointment.

Maybe her testimony gives a girl fighting off her own attacker today the courage to testify today, instead of waiting 35 years when it's too late.

Maybe that helps that girl stay sane and avoid a lifetime of therapy and mental anguish.

Maybe that helps an entire generation of Americans find the courage and strength to do what's right in their own lives.

Or maybe Kavanaugh just sits quietly on the bench 'til the end of his days, never asking a question in court, silently brooding over how his nomination is forever tainted.

Giving a victim a voice is never a bad thing, even if you're not planning on doing anything about it.

[Captain Caveman]

Just because something is a foregone conclusion doesn't mean it's theater to give an opportunity for a victim's voice to be heard.

The ramifications of testifying against an SCOTUS nominee go far beyond his appointment.

Maybe her testimony gives a girl fighting off her own attacker today the courage to testify today, instead of waiting 35 years when it's too late.

Maybe that helps that girl stay sane and avoid a lifetime of therapy and mental anguish.

Maybe that helps an entire generation of Americans find the courage and strength to do what's right in their own lives.

Or maybe Kavanaugh just sits quietly on the bench 'til the end of his days, never asking a question in court, silently brooding over how his nomination is forever tainted.

Giving a victim a voice is never a bad thing, even if you're not planning on doing anything about it.

Yes, these are all possible public benefits. But I mean it would be "theater" if votes were already pre-determined regardless of the hearing, and this was just a way for the GOP to do damage control and claim they didn't suppress or dismiss the allegations.

[El Guapo]

The hope on the GOP side was that Ford would be unwilling to publicly testify (and endure a smear campaign over all of this), and that they could then use that as a justification for shutting the whole inquiry down). But she was, so now they're kind of stuck with the hearing.

[GreenGoo]

It's still the right thing to do.

[Captain Caveman]

It's still the right thing to do.

But that's not why they're doing it.

[GreenGoo]

It's still the right thing to do.

But that's not why they're doing it.

So what? Are we to not do the right thing because it might help the GOP?

[pr0ner]

Powerful piece on Kavanaugh.

I love the Athletic.

[Captain Caveman]

It's still the right thing to do.

But that's not why they're doing it.

So what? Are we to not do the right thing because it might help the GOP?

What?

I'm just saying that if, as I suspect, the hearing is not an attempt to evaluate the truth-- which it clearly isn't because they're restricting testimony to Kavanaugh and Ford-- then this reeks of a pro-forma "going through the motions" escapade designed to increase ambiguity surrounding the allegations, give them political cover by saying they gave Ford a chance to speak, and then confirm Kavanaugh regardless.

So yeah, I can simultaneously think that 1) having Ford speak publicly has benefit and 2) question the motives of what the GOP is doing here.

[El Guapo]

It's still the right thing to do.

But that's not why they're doing it.

So what? Are we to not do the right thing because it might help the GOP?

I think it's more that the GOP's bad faith in calling the hearing is probative of how the hearing is likely to go, and what will happen afterwards.

But god, what do you do if you're a GOP senator on the committee? You want to poke holes in Ford's story, but a bunch of old white guys pushing hard on an assault victim is not a good look. I'd guess they'll ask minimal questions of her while serving up softballs for Kavanaugh, and then plan on Fox News re-running a bunch of forceful Kavanaugh remarks.

[Carpet_pissr]

plan plan on Fox News re-running a bunch of forceful Kavanaugh remarks.

I think more and more this is the GOP's (can they even be called that anymore?) MO or strategy. Just let their frothing media mouthpieces do the heavy lifting with the voters.

[GreenGoo]

So yeah, I can simultaneously think that 1) having Ford speak publicly has benefit and 2) question the motives of what the GOP is doing here.

Sure. Kurth was asking what the point of it all is if it's just theater. I responded that just because nothing is likely to come of it directly doesn't mean it is pointless.

Then you responded with a "yeah, but..." when my response was clearly a "yeah, but...". So you're "yeah, butt..."ing my "yeah, butt..." to agree with me?

Ok.

[Captain Caveman]

It's shitty theater in terms of the GOP motivation for holding the hearing. It's to give them political cover and probably appease a couple GOP senators who feel they can't vote yes without it. Any broader benefit as incidental to the bad faith at play here on the part of the GOP.

[GreenGoo]

Hating the GOP for doing the right thing because it's to their benefit is a rabbit hole I'm not willing to go down. It's not like this exonerates them for all the shitty things they do. Like when Drumpf accidentally does the right thing, it's not celebration worthy, but neither do I condemn him for it.

Now that I think I understand your viewpoint, have at it, I guess.

Perhaps that was Kurth's point all along. *shrug*

[em2nought]

Looks like they're not sure if she'll show up or not now. Real brinkmanship would have been for her to have found out she has a terminal disease, orchestrate this, and then commit suicide to make it look like it was over this. That would cook his goose.

[malchior]

If he does fall that'll push the nomination into lame duck for sure. They'll definitely do it but it'll be even less legitimate and will do immense damage to the nation. Especially if they lose the Senate. It will be bedlam. We are in a very dangerous period and the risks that we have some constitutional crack up just keep mounting. It is extremely scary.

The trick they're facing now is that the worst case scenario is that Kavanaugh lasts another 2 - 4 weeks, and *then* has to withdraw (after quite possibly further damaging the GOP midterm prospects in the meantime). If they restart now with another judge on the existing list (that doesn't have a bunch of documents from a previous stint in government that would need to be produced), then there's probably enough time to have hearings before the midterm. The judge might not be confirmed before the midterms, but if it's just a couple weeks afterwards, and the judge isn't a sex offender, the GOP can probably hold onto their caucus and get the judge confirmed.

But god, how excited must the GOP be to have an extremely public hearing about sexual assault allegations of their court nominee less than two months before the midterms, eh?

As others have said, I really don't think it hurts his chances much in the current political environment. On one hand we are in the middle of #metoo, but on the other hand, you have a trifecta of political power by the party that is mostly if not strongly "anti-#metoo". In this case, political power trumps social power I think.

They are really putting it front and center that the will of the American people means absolutely nothing. Absolute power is all that matters.

It's shitty theater in terms of the GOP motivation for holding the hearing. It's to give them political cover and probably appease a couple GOP senators who feel they can't vote yes without it. Any broader benefit as incidental to the bad faith at play here on the part of the GOP.

It is definitely crucial to Collins' double game. She has to pretend *so much* concern.

[Skinypupy]

Next week Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh will testify to the Senate Judiciary Committee under oath. But we should not have gotten to this point. That this process has played out with so little order and so little sensitivity lies solely at the feet of Senate Democrats.

The fact McConnell can say this with a straight face is astounding.

[Smoove_B]

I don't understand how reporters don't hammer him after making this ridiculous statements. Like...using his quotes, have him explain his position in light of the goddamn shenanigans he pulled with Obama. Why isn't this something they just absolutely pester him with at every opportunity?

I hate him in a way that is probably unhealthy.

[Captain Caveman]

Kavanaugh accuser has not yet agreed to attend hearing

I don't blame her... she's in a completely terrible position. I'm guessing part of the GOP strategy here to limiting testimony to just Ford and Kavanaugh and otherwise signal they aren't on a fact-finding mission is to try to reduce the chances she wants to go through with her testimony. If she doesn't appear, they can claim credit for trying and move forward with the vote.

The fact that the publicly announced the hearing before confirming it with her raises my suspicion that they're hoping she won't agree, and then can paint her as uncooperative and therefore less credible.

[LordMortis]

I hate him in a way that is probably unhealthy.

There is no probably for me. Two years of president FuckO has nothing on that piece of shit.

[El Guapo]

Kavanaugh accuser has not yet agreed to attend hearing

I don't blame her... she's in a completely terrible position. I'm guessing part of the GOP strategy here to limiting testimony to just Ford and Kavanaugh and otherwise signal they aren't on a fact-finding mission is to try to reduce the chances she wants to go through with her testimony. If she doesn't appear, they can claim credit for trying and move forward with the vote.

The fact that the publicly announced the hearing before confirming it with her raises my suspicion that they're hoping she won't agree, and then can paint her as uncooperative and therefore less credible.

If Ford and her lawyer ultimately opt out of the GOP’s public hearing invitation — Democrats have skipped a staff-level call with Kavanaugh on the matter, casting doubt on their participation — Republicans will face another tough decision on whether to press ahead with the nomination.

Oh yeah, I'm sure that would be a really tough decision.

We'll see. One cynical strategy would be to put enough conditions on the hearing that it makes it undesirable for Ford to attend, and then blame her for not attending.

[GreenGoo]

I don't understand how reporters don't hammer him after making this ridiculous statements. Like...using his quotes, have him explain his position in light of the goddamn shenanigans he pulled with Obama. Why isn't this something they just absolutely pester him with at every opportunity?

I hate him in a way that is probably unhealthy.

I've always hated this about drumpf's insanity as well. But it's not a journalist's job to refute lies when they leave the mouths of politicians. They can do it when they write their article, but that makes them look partisan.

It's a loophole that politicians have been picking away at for years. Drumpf and McConnell take advantage of this in the exact same way, except one is "genius", so he does it much worse than the other.

If it helps, your hate has been infectious. I've gone from not knowing who he is before Obama to wondering why these people are not held accountable for the things they say and do.

So now I hate him too. Another stigginit moment for the deplorables I guess.

[LawBeefaroni]

Maybe they'll put them both in the same room and perform some mediation.

If she floats, she's lying.

Someone tell me why this isn't all just shitty theater.

Because it's great theater. Ratings will be through the roof.

[GreenGoo]

Maybe they'll put them both in the same room and perform some mediation.

If she floats, she's lying.

I thought Isgrim was referring to the practice of forced mediation between large corporations and the little guy, mediated by companies who's bills are paid by the large corps.

i.e. has the appearance of fairness on paper, but in reality is heavily stacked in the large corp's favour.

[Isgrimnur]

Maybe they'll put them both in the same room and perform some mediation.

If she floats, she's lying.

I thought Isgrim was referring to the practice of forced mediation between large corporations and little people, mediated by companies who's bills are paid by the large corps.

i.e. has the appearance of fairness on paper, but in reality is heavily stacked in the large corp's favour.

Bzzzt. College "solutions".

[GreenGoo]

Bzzzt. College "solutions".

For the record I included that "in my head", only I didn't recognize the direct and obviously more appropriate comparison. I consider the two mediation examples to be identical in all but name anyway.

In any case, I'll guess better next time!

[Rip]

It's just that there are a number of things that could go wrong, including "unknown unknowns", and any one of them could throw things into doubt. If a second accuser comes forward, for example, Kavanaugh is probably done, GOP will to power or not. Flake's already said that he wants the vote delayed - what is Flake finally says fuck it altogether? The latest is that apparently both Ford and Kavanaugh are going to testify on the allegations - what happens if Kavanaugh craps the bed and it runs on the nightly news for a few days? What if Heller starts to see his polling going south quickly and gets nervous? And I agree that Collins probably has more to fear from the GOP base than the GOP electorate in this case - but if the Ford situation gets worse, it's not crazy to think that that could change (and more to the point, it's not crazy to think that Collins's assessment of that could change).

It isn't that it is crazy to believe there is hope. I just don't think there is any hope. This feels like it is all about grasping at straws and I get it. This is another horrible development as our nation's heart is stolen away by and for the extremely wealthy.

Anyway I don't believe in absolutes which is pretty much why I don't say 100% on his confirmation. That said, I agree that more accusers coming out would be a tough one for the GOP to ignore but I think they might just try. Like I said before they are worried about a few seats in the Senate. They don't have time to vette another nom in time. I mean I guess the very slim option is they ditch him and literally balls to the wall and confirm a nom lame duck. I can't put anything beyond them anymore. They absolutely can not and will not let this the opportunity slip away. That would be unacceptable to their money base.

It isn't like they have shown they are anything but willing to do despicable things for power. In that vein Mrs. Ford is pretty brave because she is now in the cross-hairs of every dirty political operative and fortune seeker you can probably imagine. I will be less than shocked if dirt about her appears tout suite.

Has a SCOTUS nominee ever required a VP tiebreak vote to be confirmed?

This is hardly a norm they'd care about at this point. As long as he is legally confirmed and they don't risk total Armageddon they will do it.

They have other vetted candidates available. The emergency chute option would be to pull Kavanaugh and nominate Barrett (sp?), who is the one the conservatives really wanted anyway. They have through December to get the confirmation done. If they are going to try that, though, they're going to want to get started soon.

But yeah, not that I think the VP vote would be an issue, just curious if it had happened before.

Yep, this getting Barrett the seat would be awesome.

[El Guapo]

It's just that there are a number of things that could go wrong, including "unknown unknowns", and any one of them could throw things into doubt. If a second accuser comes forward, for example, Kavanaugh is probably done, GOP will to power or not. Flake's already said that he wants the vote delayed - what is Flake finally says fuck it altogether? The latest is that apparently both Ford and Kavanaugh are going to testify on the allegations - what happens if Kavanaugh craps the bed and it runs on the nightly news for a few days? What if Heller starts to see his polling going south quickly and gets nervous? And I agree that Collins probably has more to fear from the GOP base than the GOP electorate in this case - but if the Ford situation gets worse, it's not crazy to think that that could change (and more to the point, it's not crazy to think that Collins's assessment of that could change).

It isn't that it is crazy to believe there is hope. I just don't think there is any hope. This feels like it is all about grasping at straws and I get it. This is another horrible development as our nation's heart is stolen away by and for the extremely wealthy.

Anyway I don't believe in absolutes which is pretty much why I don't say 100% on his confirmation. That said, I agree that more accusers coming out would be a tough one for the GOP to ignore but I think they might just try. Like I said before they are worried about a few seats in the Senate. They don't have time to vette another nom in time. I mean I guess the very slim option is they ditch him and literally balls to the wall and confirm a nom lame duck. I can't put anything beyond them anymore. They absolutely can not and will not let this the opportunity slip away. That would be unacceptable to their money base.

It isn't like they have shown they are anything but willing to do despicable things for power. In that vein Mrs. Ford is pretty brave because she is now in the cross-hairs of every dirty political operative and fortune seeker you can probably imagine. I will be less than shocked if dirt about her appears tout suite.

Has a SCOTUS nominee ever required a VP tiebreak vote to be confirmed?

This is hardly a norm they'd care about at this point. As long as he is legally confirmed and they don't risk total Armageddon they will do it.

They have other vetted candidates available. The emergency chute option would be to pull Kavanaugh and nominate Barrett (sp?), who is the one the conservatives really wanted anyway. They have through December to get the confirmation done. If they are going to try that, though, they're going to want to get started soon.

But yeah, not that I think the VP vote would be an issue, just curious if it had happened before.

Yep, this getting Barrett the seat would be awesome.

FWIW word is that McConnell wanted Thaler, so presumably he would push things in that direction if Kavanaugh has to withdraw.