SCOTUS Watch

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:36 am

I woke up this morning unable to believe yesterday actually happened.

There are so many nauseating pieces to it, but the simple unambiguous fact of the nominee's declaration of naked partisanship should be enough to disqualify him. That's not how it's supposed to work, and every senator knows it.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:40 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:15 amFacts are no longer mandatory, or even appreciated, by the R base.

They have fully embraced the ideology of "Anti-Intellectualism"

Holman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:36 am...the simple unambiguous fact of the nominee's declaration of naked partisanship should be enough to disqualify him. That's not how it's supposed to work, and every senator knows it.

And still, less than half of them care. This is their chance to install hardcore Republican values into the courts.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:44 am

Just one more exhibit in the 'facts don't matter' line:

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:52 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:44 am Just one more exhibit in the 'facts don't matter' line:

Yeah, it seems to be like, "Hey, don't ruin this guy's life for what may or may not have happened 30 some years ago. ". But even that line is so fucking asinine. No one is ruining this guy's life, just his highest career aspirations. Whether he gets the seat or not, he and his family are set for generations. A supreme Court appointment isn't a right that he has somehow earned. The sense of entitlement is sickening.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:04 am

So already this morning I was called a liar and told that Dr. Ford is clearly either a paid liberal activist or "off her rockers".

Darkest timeline indeed.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:08 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:44 am Just one more exhibit in the 'facts don't matter' line:

Based on the conservatives I've spoken to this morning, the Republican Senators absolutely refuted Dr. Ford's facts in the case. They proved that the party either didn't happen, discredited Ford because she can't remember how she got there or how she got home, and questioned how she could be certain it was Kavanaugh.

In addition to Ford making it up, I've also heard a lot of "I believe something happened to her, but it wasn't Kavanaugh".

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:11 am

Our country is fucked right now. The divide just got even wider and I'm not sure there's any coming back now. At least not in any form we're used to. I used to believe we could recover, but the vitriol is so bad that I've lost hope.

And to be fair, I think this whole debacle over Kavanaugh was handled poorly by Dems as well. They introduced this shit in the 11th hour, thus assuring that its timing would be called into question and used as a way to say "hey, they're just trying to save their bacon" (which, I'll be honest, I actually do believe now). I'm pretty much done with both parties at this point. This whole country is ruled by extremes and I hate that.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:18 am

Sorry, but there's no room for BothSidesism here.

Maybe the Dems were tactically stupid, but the GOP we saw yesterday is morally bankrupt.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:21 am

Yep. No equivalency at all.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:24 am

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:11 am This whole country is ruled by extremes and I hate that.

The ruling class are extemes like the Mets and Yankees are extremes. Rivals sure, but at the end of the day they are both getting rich playing the same game and drink in the same clubs. It's the fans, who never set foot on the field, that learn to actually hate each other. And pay for that privilege.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:38 am

FWIW the magazine of the Jesuit Order of America called on Kavanaugh to withdraw this morning, and the ABA is calling for a delay and investigation. I suspect others will follow today, of varying importance. Though obviously little of this matters to McConnell.

This is reminding me of the health care and tax bill debacles. Shit keeps happening that makes going forward more and more insane, but McConnell is completely amoral and Trump periodically pops in to urge everyone forward in the insane path, and so the crazy train keeps rolling. It looks like it probably will ultimately come down to a vote, and thereby to whether there are two Republican senators (plus Manchin) willing to do the ol' thumbs down. They ultimately did with health care, but not with the tax bill, and now...

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:39 am

News: Flake to vote Yes today. Full senate vote expected Tuesday.

Kavanaugh will be on the court. There have been leaks that Manchin (a Republican in all but name) will vote for him too, so even Collins and Murkowski voting No wont stop it.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:40 am

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:11 am Our country is fucked right now. The divide just got even wider and I'm not sure there's any coming back now. At least not in any form we're used to. I used to believe we could recover, but the vitriol is so bad that I've lost hope.

And to be fair, I think this whole debacle over Kavanaugh was handled poorly by Dems as well. They introduced this shit in the 11th hour, thus assuring that its timing would be called into question and used as a way to say "hey, they're just trying to save their bacon" (which, I'll be honest, I actually do believe now). I'm pretty much done with both parties at this point. This whole country is ruled by extremes and I hate that.

This is a rare occasion where got your back.

I'm angry that my hand if forced though. And I resent the coercion that surrounds it from every side. While I desperately want to be done with a Democratic party I think is horrible, I don't fear their end game is JustUs. I don't know what else to do, short of buy guns and store them basement. And that's not hyperbole. We have a vote to keep us peaceful. We have to keep using it until a circumstance show the vote is an illusion. I pray that circumstance never becomes reality.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:40 am

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:11 am Our country is fucked right now. The divide just got even wider and I'm not sure there's any coming back now. At least not in any form we're used to. I used to believe we could recover, but the vitriol is so bad that I've lost hope.

And to be fair, I think this whole debacle over Kavanaugh was handled poorly by Dems as well. They introduced this shit in the 11th hour, thus assuring that its timing would be called into question and used as a way to say "hey, they're just trying to save their bacon" (which, I'll be honest, I actually do believe now). I'm pretty much done with both parties at this point. This whole country is ruled by extremes and I hate that.

I hate keeping hearing this whole timing thing. Feinstein kept it under wraps at the request of the victim here. That's at least defensible. Second, it's only last minute IF THE VOTING SCHEDULE IS FIXED. It's *not*. There is no really defensible reason why the Senate can't take its time in deciding whether or not to confirm someone to a lifetime appointment. Even if there were a defensible non-partisan reason for confirming before the new Congress (itself hilarious in light of the GOP rationale for not voting on Garland), there's plenty of time to evaluate and investigate the allegations before a vote.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:41 am

So, Will Ferrell pretty much has to play Kavanaugh on the SNL cold open this week, right?

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:42 am

And Flake is in with a thumbs-up.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:42 am

Holman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:39 am Kavanaugh will be on the court.

This was inevitable the moment he was nominated. It continued to be inevitable even after the accusations came out. I hope no one here is genuinely surprised his nomination survived.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:44 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:40 am
hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:11 am Our country is fucked right now. The divide just got even wider and I'm not sure there's any coming back now. At least not in any form we're used to. I used to believe we could recover, but the vitriol is so bad that I've lost hope.

And to be fair, I think this whole debacle over Kavanaugh was handled poorly by Dems as well. They introduced this shit in the 11th hour, thus assuring that its timing would be called into question and used as a way to say "hey, they're just trying to save their bacon" (which, I'll be honest, I actually do believe now). I'm pretty much done with both parties at this point. This whole country is ruled by extremes and I hate that.
I hate keeping hearing this whole timing thing. Feinstein kept it under wraps at the request of the victim here. That's at least defensible. Second, it's only last minute IF THE VOTING SCHEDULE IS FIXED. It's *not*. There is no really defensible reason why the Senate can't take its time in deciding whether or not to confirm someone to a lifetime appointment. Even if there were a defensible non-partisan reason for confirming before the new Congress (itself hilarious in light of the GOP rationale for not voting on Garland), there's plenty of time to evaluate and investigate the allegations before a vote.

+1

Complaints about the "last minute" make no sense unless you think examining the nominee is a mere formality.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:45 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:42 am And Flake is in with a thumbs-up.

Flake is such a turd. It's amazing how he's managed to wind up his Senate career by making himself useless to everyone of all political stripes.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:47 am

pr0ner wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:42 amI hope no one here is genuinely surprised his nomination survived.

All you need to do is look and see the person elevated to the oval office. If that was possible, this was nothing in comparison.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:47 am

pr0ner wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:42 am
Holman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:39 am Kavanaugh will be on the court.
This was inevitable the moment he was nominated. It continued to be inevitable even after the accusations came out. I hope no one here is genuinely surprised his nomination survived.

I go back and forth. Yesterday I was like, "he can't possibly survive this" and then I remembered the whole health care and tax bill procedures.

That said, even assuming Flake votes yes, the confirmation is not inevitable. It's entirely plausible (possibly even likely) that more will come out over the weekend, plus there's going to be more polling. I do think that this is going to come down to some midnight vote like healthcare, with the outcome uncertain.

I also think that it's political insanity for the GOP to be going ahead with this rather than just subbing in Barrett.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:48 am

There are no consequences (for them) in this timeline.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:48 am

pr0ner wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:42 am
Holman wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:39 am Kavanaugh will be on the court.
This was inevitable the moment he was nominated. It continued to be inevitable even after the accusations came out. I hope no one here is genuinely surprised his nomination survived.

Some of us have maintained hope against all odds, but seeing that things are still full steam ahead I get the same ill feeling in the pit of my stomach I had late Nov 8, 2016.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:49 am

Just a reminder that Kavanaugh would be almost certainly doomed in a representative body.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:49 am

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:41 am So, Will Ferrell pretty much has to play Kavanaugh on the SNL cold open this week, right?

For every reason, I think the role belongs to Kevin Spacey.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:49 am

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:48 am There are no consequences (for them) in this timeline.

That remains to be seen. The consequences-setting event isn't for a month or so.

Wow, that's closer than I had thought.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:51 am

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:53 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:49 amJust a reminder that Kavanaugh would be almost certainly doomed in a representative body.

I mean, literally the entire GOP platform would be certainly doomed in a representative body. As would many of the specific representatives (we'd surely no longer have nearly as uniformly old white mannish of a body).

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:54 am

Also, Bob Corker is a turd.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:56 am

Still is, yes.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:59 am

El Guapo wrote: I also think that it's political insanity for the GOP to be going ahead with this rather than just subbing in Barrett.

Locking in another hard right lifetime SCJ >possibility of losing one term to the dems

No brainer, from a party perspective. Individually sucks for those having to run , of course, but everyone seems on board to die on this SC nomination hill if necessary.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:02 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:49 amThat remains to be seen.

Has the past two years taught you nothing? Not only is the coming outcome obvious, we will be sitting here in mid-November, shocked that once again a majority of white women have voted for this nonsense to continue. Which will in turn embolden these garbage humans to let loose for another two years.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:05 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:59 amLocking in another hard right lifetime SCJ >possibility of losing one term to the dems

Yup. This is their contingency plan, knowing they're in trouble.

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:02 am Which will in turn embolden these garbage humans to let loose for another two years.

Yup.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:07 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:40 am
hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:11 am Our country is fucked right now. The divide just got even wider and I'm not sure there's any coming back now. At least not in any form we're used to. I used to believe we could recover, but the vitriol is so bad that I've lost hope.

And to be fair, I think this whole debacle over Kavanaugh was handled poorly by Dems as well. They introduced this shit in the 11th hour, thus assuring that its timing would be called into question and used as a way to say "hey, they're just trying to save their bacon" (which, I'll be honest, I actually do believe now). I'm pretty much done with both parties at this point. This whole country is ruled by extremes and I hate that.
I hate keeping hearing this whole timing thing. Feinstein kept it under wraps at the request of the victim here. That's at least defensible. Second, it's only last minute IF THE VOTING SCHEDULE IS FIXED. It's *not*. There is no really defensible reason why the Senate can't take its time in deciding whether or not to confirm someone to a lifetime appointment. Even if there were a defensible non-partisan reason for confirming before the new Congress (itself hilarious in light of the GOP rationale for not voting on Garland), there's plenty of time to evaluate and investigate the allegations before a vote.

The Democrats really should have made this point - I don't remember of any of them doing so.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:10 am

Flake probably realized that if he had any further presidential ambitions, it would be best to keep the evangelical voters happy. Or he voted his conscience, but if supporting an extreme right wing unhinged nominee fixated on blaming liberals who are getting revenge for Clinton then his conscience needs a bit of examination.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:15 am

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:02 am
El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:49 amThat remains to be seen.
Has the past two years taught you nothing? Not only is the coming outcome obvious, we will be sitting here in mid-November, shocked that once again a majority of white women have voted for this nonsense to continue. Which will in turn embolden these garbage humans to let loose for another two years.

This shit isn't magic. Have you seen the House polling lately? That the consequences will be sufficient (that is, that one or both chambers of Congress will flip) is of course bar from certain - it's entirely possible that the Republicans may hold onto a narrow House majority, and the Senate. But by far the most likely outcome at the moment is a narrow to large Democratic majority in the House. And the fact that the Democrats have a non-trivial shot at the Senate (~30% per 538, last I checked) on *this* Senate map is a testament to how the Republicans are definitely not magically defying political gravity.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:15 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:05 am
Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:59 amLocking in another hard right lifetime SCJ >possibility of losing one term to the dems
Yup. This is their contingency plan, knowing they're in trouble.

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:02 am Which will in turn embolden these garbage humans to let loose for another two years.
Yup.

McConnell could have easily gotten Barrett confirmed before January.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:16 am

$iljanus wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:10 am Flake probably realized that if he had any further presidential ambitions, it would be best to keep the evangelical voters happy. Or he voted his conscience, but if supporting an extreme right wing unhinged nominee fixated on blaming liberals who are getting revenge for Clinton then his conscience needs a bit of examination.

If he thinks he has any shot at the White House under either party, then he's a dumb turd.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:17 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:59 am No brainer, from a party perspective. Individually sucks for those having to run , of course, but everyone seems on board to die on this SC nomination hill if necessary.

If either a) you are believer, b) your palms have been properly greased and you are corrupt, c) you live in a state of believers, that's all it you need. 2016 was all about getting a SCJ seat for forty years, flipping one and unexpectedly extending another with a 20 year partisan direction setting trend insider, fixated on the Star, Rove, Clinton triangle? Bonus!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:20 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:15 am This shit isn't magic. Have you seen the House polling lately? That the consequences will be sufficient (that is, that one or both chambers of Congress will flip) is of course bar from certain - it's entirely possible that the Republicans may hold onto a narrow House majority, and the Senate. But by far the most likely outcome at the moment is a narrow to large Democratic majority in the House. And the fact that the Democrats have a non-trivial shot at the Senate (~30% per 538, last I checked) on *this* Senate map is a testament to how the Republicans are definitely not magically defying political gravity.

You say that as if RM9s fear isn't that his vote literally doesn't matter. As in if garbage people have no respect for anything beyond retaining power over others, what makes the integrity of the voting system different?