I think the article is a mix of the obvious (building a new company selling cars is difficult-to-impossible, Musk can be his own worst enemy, Tesla will not disappear as it's far too valuable at this stage) with the silly (Tesla needs to scale, also scaling is what's killing Tesla, ergo doomed from the outset so no need for the rest of the article).
The share price is in the shitter due to a mix of:
bad stuff outside of Tesla's control: China trade war on-again, off-again; seasonality of vehicle sales--Q1 sucked ass but was > 100% growth over Q1 2018).
and truly, epically, horrifically terrible execution lately: leaked S/X refresh well before it was ready to start taking orders, resulting in the order book collapsing for Q1; lack of any sort of consistent PR effort to counter the absolutely insane amount of bullshit that gets spewed about the company on a daily basis; pulling forward as much demand into Q4 2018 as they could in order to get buyers the most full US tax credits possible, leaving a gaping hole for Q1; botching the initial Model 3 European roll-out, leaving bunches of cars undelivered at the end of Q1; etc.
Combine these in a stew with the relentless FUD machine from short sellers (for a couple recent examples, see the prolific headlines suggesting that Musk said the company could run out of cash in 10 months [spoiler: not at all what he actually said], and that they're cost-cutting to the level of not buying toilet paper). Also analysts taking advantage of the headline-grabbing nature of Tesla (See Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas putting out a report with a price range of $10 to $391). Total bullshit. You're left with a company that partially can't (due to loss of credibility) and partially won't (due to Musk's aversion to marketing/PR) defend itself.
At the end of the day we have a few objective facts:
- Tesla makes the best electric vehicles, by a very wide margin. Recent competitors like the Audi e-Tron and Jaguar iPace are far inferior in significant measures. The established manufacturers behind them are also facing production issues as Tesla did. See Audi's recent 6-mo delay from confirmed delivery timing for early buyers for one example, and VW's mess from what initially seemed like a large and stable battery supply agreement. This could be expanded to simply 'Tesla makes the best vehicles,' something that I believe. But not everyone is on board with that assessment yet.
- More and more locales are putting hard stops on ICE vehicle sales or entry into their borders. At this stage it's inevitable that all or virtually all vehicle production will go electric. That does not mean that Tesla will continue to lead the pack, but it does mean that Tesla has significant value as the clear leader in EV tech. Other manufacturers have to figure out how they will move to EVs while winding down their ICE production, which is a task that is far, far more difficult than the one Tesla faces. Virtually everyone else must simultaneously scale EV design/production while destroying the profitable portion of their business.
- Tesla's got a huge lead on vehicle software. The S is seven years old next month and we *still* have zero competing vehicles capable of OTA-upgrading the entire software stack of the vehicle, much less also owning nearly the full hardware componentry (without owning the hardware, it's impossible to create the software stack advantages of Tesla since you don't have access to that level of development).
- Tesla's the clear leader in plug-in sales in the US. That's not even a fair comparison since the majority of the non-Tesla vehicles in that chart have ICE engines, as well. They're making significant dents in Europe now, and the Shanghai factory coming online late this year or early next will help replicate that chart in China.
- Tesla's got a huge lead on electric vehicle battery tech experience and ownership. Virtually all other manufacturers are using suppliers for their batteries, which has not worked out well for those companies thus far (see above with VW, also Audi's issues renegotiating with LG). Tesla also uses Panasonic as a supplier, but Tesla's designing the chemistry and houses most of Panasonic's production within Tesla's factory. Tesla also just bought Maxwell Technologies which should further reduce their battery cost via dry electrode tech in the near future.
- Other manufacturers are having difficulties in the current macro environment, as well, only they are shrinking in volume rather than continuing to rise.
- Other manufacturers without a plan to get emissions under control in the extremely near future are fucked and/or helping Tesla. See FCA's $1.8B agreement to pool European emissions credits with Tesla. Also see Renault/FCA talking merger.
- Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai will be the first wholly-foreign-owned vehicle manufacturing facility in China, which will greatly reduce the cost of Tesla vehicles in the China market (both from reduced tariffs and reduced labor/shipping/component costs). This will also finally help them smooth out delivery cadence both from a shipping perspective as well as not being reliant on a single factory for all of their vehicle production. This factory is going up at a crazy pace, as well.
- Tesla was going to run out of cash years ago. They raised with no trouble. Then they were going to run out of cash fewer years ago. They raised with no trouble. Tesla was going to run out of cash due to the March bond payment. They paid it in cash after two profitable quarters. Then they were going to run out of cash earlier this spring. They raised > $2B in a couple of days. This won't continue forever, but they've shown no concrete signs yet that future raises are off the table. And this is without Musk yet having to call up any of his friends for direct investment. I'm aware that it's gotten close more than once. I'm not saying they can't hit a funding wall and end up acquired. I'm saying the fact that we constantly hear that it's coming doesn't mean that it's coming.
This all leaves out Tesla Energy completely, as well as the possible autonomy benefits of the new Autopilot computer.
None of this means that Tesla will survive as an independent entity, nor that the stock will recover to prior highs even if they do. But it does mean I see a glimmer of a chance that Tesla becomes the juggernaut that I hope they will.
So... Am I happy with the drop? No. Can I say that Tesla didn't deserve this haircut? No. The ATH stock price levels were based on a projected level of growth that Q1 blew the air out of. Toss on the sideshow antics from Musk with the SEC/'pedo guy' suits, macro environment, etc, and the air has continued to leak out. I think Q2 results will patch the hole to a certain degree, but I don't see TSLA approaching the ATH for quite some time. I'm certainly glad that I have been playing the volatility to sell high and buy back low, though I of course in retrospect wish I had done a lot more of that.
In short, the sheen has been blown off of the stock, but I am still very confident that the company's tech is head-and-shoulders above everyone else. I'm invested in the company with a very long time horizon and got in at a very low price, and I'm up close first-hand on a daily basis with their tech and the latest competition. It's therefore easier for me to see through the noise. Further, Tesla's a company that I personally want to see succeed, so Imma just gonna keep on holding. I would not recommend anyone who's not committed to head-down holding for a 5+ year time horizon getting in now, though.
In short, I am on the bus that
Tasha Keeney is driving, though I think their $4k bull-case target is ridiculous. I also largely agree with 'Let's Go To YouTube Dude' Galileo Russell's
ongoing thoughts, though I wince at his 'what up' delivery and general lack of any blame-placing on Tesla.
What would get me to change my tune: a competitor producing a vehicle with the same performance as a Tesla, at the same price point, with the same battery efficiency (this is key so that it's unlikely to be a simple loss-leading trophy car), similar or greater volume, and the same level of tech upgrade-ability. Or a three- or four-quarter drop-off in Tesla sales. Q1--while terrible compared to guidance--was, I think, largely a fluke combining the tax credit cliff, leaked S/X refresh info, seasonality of the industry, bad execution in Europe/China, and was still a ridiculous YoY rise of > 100%.
OK, that got far longer than intended, and likely doesn't flow well at all, but that's all the time I've got.
Is this you being subtle? 
Just kidding lol
