Iran

[Default]

I'm still gobsmacked that you would start a shooting war over a device designed to be destroyed without a loss of life. Jesus fucking Christ, what is wrong with these assholes? Do we have to occupy every middle eastern country? Is it a penis size thing, or what?

[Holman]

Trump ordered an attack on Iran, then changed his mind.

WTF

Incidentally, the narrative here (as Trump tells it) is bullshit.

There is no way that the president ordered a strike and then was informed about the scale of potential casualties 10 minutes before Go simply because it occurred to him to ask about them.

A casualty assessment would have been one of the first things anyone reported to him the first time he mentioned the possibility.

This is just more Trump myth-making.

[LawBeefaroni]

I'm sure the shoot-down was traumatic for the drone pilot. He's probably just now recovering from his hangover.

I really hope we're not going to war to avenge an expensive appliance.

If Iran did shoot down one of our drones, in international waters [I know, a mighty big IF] I'd love to see the US yank on their chain a bit. Mess with their infrastructure or something for a few days, just in the areas where the leadership live. Something completely deniable. Bonus points for manufacturing evidence that an ally did it... Say Russia.

We already are "yanking their chain" in several ways. This is why they are doing risky shit like shooting down drones the first place. We're arming their enemies in the region and imposing heavy sanctions.

[Kraken]

Posturing and sending every signal that you are going to war without a truly good reason--including ordering an attack before calling it off--and then suddenly shifting course is better than actually going to war but worse than doing none of this at all.

It is important to acknowledge an adversary's strengths and successes, even when they're only of the stopped clock/blind squirrel variety. Trump at least has anti-war instincts, even though he created this Iran crisis by withdrawing from the treaty, embargoing their oil, encouraging their enemies, and surrounding himself with hawks.

But yeah, "erratic" is not an encouraging quality. This is still likely to end badly.

[NickAragua]

I'd argue that Trump doesn't really have anti-war instincts, but when Putin pulls him by the ear, he listens.

[Remus West]

Posturing and sending every signal that you are going to war without a truly good reason--including ordering an attack before calling it off--and then suddenly shifting course is better than actually going to war but worse than doing none of this at all.

It is important to acknowledge an adversary's strengths and successes, even when they're only of the stopped clock/blind squirrel variety. Trump at least has anti-war instincts, even though he created this Iran crisis by withdrawing from the treaty, embargoing their oil, encouraging their enemies, and surrounding himself with hawks.

But yeah, "erratic" is not an encouraging quality. This is still likely to end badly.

I think he is mostly just amazed that they are willing to stand up to his bullying. He, himself, is too much the coward to ever consider that they might be willing to go to war over things they view as principles.

[Max Peck]

Trump approved cyber-strikes against Iran’s missile systems

President Trump approved an offensive cyberstrike that disabled Iranian computer systems used to control rocket and missile launches, even as he backed away from a conventional military attack in response to its downing Thursday of an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone, according to people familiar with the matter.

The cyberstrikes, launched Thursday night by personnel with U.S. Cyber Command, were in the works for weeks if not months, according to two of these people, who said the Pentagon proposed launching them after Iran’s alleged attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman earlier this month.

The strike against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was coordinated with U.S. Central Command, the military organization with purview of activity throughout the Middle East, these people said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the operation remains extremely sensitive.

Though crippling to Iran’s military command and control systems, the operation did not involve a loss of life or civilian casualties — a contrast to conventional strikes, which the president said he called back Thursday because they would not be “proportionate.”

The administration on Saturday warned industry officials to be alert for cyberattacks originating from Iran.

So I guess the cyberwar is on.

[em2nought]

...and just like that liberal elitists became war hawks.

[GungHo]

...and just like that liberal elitists became war hawks.

I'm certainly not an elitist liberal and while I don't object, on principle, to US intervention around the globe I don't think I'm a war hawk either. What bothers me about trump (ya know this time) is his erratic behavior. Bomb them, don't bomb them. But pick one. Saying you were going to bomb but backed out makes you look weak and indecisive. Saying you did it for easily disproven BS lies makes you look scared. Iran already knows we can hit them with literally anything (including nukes...tho there's obvious, serious problems with that tactic). We effectively threaten Iran every day we share the same planet with them. Telling them you are threatening them gains us nothing.
As much as I hate trump, as Americans we need him to be successful in dealing with Iran. A war with them will have global consequences for decades. Iraq was a cakewalk compared to what war with Iran would be.

[Drazzil]

Trump approved cyber-strikes against Iran’s missile systems

President Trump approved an offensive cyberstrike that disabled Iranian computer systems used to control rocket and missile launches, even as he backed away from a conventional military attack in response to its downing Thursday of an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone, according to people familiar with the matter.

The cyberstrikes, launched Thursday night by personnel with U.S. Cyber Command, were in the works for weeks if not months, according to two of these people, who said the Pentagon proposed launching them after Iran’s alleged attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman earlier this month.

The strike against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was coordinated with U.S. Central Command, the military organization with purview of activity throughout the Middle East, these people said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the operation remains extremely sensitive.

Though crippling to Iran’s military command and control systems, the operation did not involve a loss of life or civilian casualties — a contrast to conventional strikes, which the president said he called back Thursday because they would not be “proportionate.”

The administration on Saturday warned industry officials to be alert for cyberattacks originating from Iran.

So I guess the cyberwar is on.

This scares me because all that I read says our cyber defences aren't that great.

[Kraken]

Trump approved cyber-strikes against Iran’s missile systems

President Trump approved an offensive cyberstrike that disabled Iranian computer systems used to control rocket and missile launches, even as he backed away from a conventional military attack in response to its downing Thursday of an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone, according to people familiar with the matter.

The cyberstrikes, launched Thursday night by personnel with U.S. Cyber Command, were in the works for weeks if not months, according to two of these people, who said the Pentagon proposed launching them after Iran’s alleged attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman earlier this month.

The strike against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was coordinated with U.S. Central Command, the military organization with purview of activity throughout the Middle East, these people said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the operation remains extremely sensitive.

Though crippling to Iran’s military command and control systems, the operation did not involve a loss of life or civilian casualties — a contrast to conventional strikes, which the president said he called back Thursday because they would not be “proportionate.”

The administration on Saturday warned industry officials to be alert for cyberattacks originating from Iran.

So I guess the cyberwar is on.

This scares me because all that I read says our cyber defences aren't that great.

This is an area where the best defense really is a good offense. Cyber attacks can be launched without warning, and their origin can be obscured or misdirected (e.g., a Chinese attack could be made to look like it came from Iran or Russia or NK). This being a highly secretive realm, it could escalate out of control before the public even realizes it's happening. You want to be really, really careful before you take down an adversary's power grid or water supply or financial system...especially if that adversary is known to be highly capable.

That said, I would expect that US capabilities run rings around Iran.

[Drazzil]

Trump approved cyber-strikes against Iran’s missile systems

President Trump approved an offensive cyberstrike that disabled Iranian computer systems used to control rocket and missile launches, even as he backed away from a conventional military attack in response to its downing Thursday of an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone, according to people familiar with the matter.

The cyberstrikes, launched Thursday night by personnel with U.S. Cyber Command, were in the works for weeks if not months, according to two of these people, who said the Pentagon proposed launching them after Iran’s alleged attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman earlier this month.

The strike against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was coordinated with U.S. Central Command, the military organization with purview of activity throughout the Middle East, these people said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the operation remains extremely sensitive.

Though crippling to Iran’s military command and control systems, the operation did not involve a loss of life or civilian casualties — a contrast to conventional strikes, which the president said he called back Thursday because they would not be “proportionate.”

The administration on Saturday warned industry officials to be alert for cyberattacks originating from Iran.

So I guess the cyberwar is on.

This scares me because all that I read says our cyber defences aren't that great.

This is an area where the best defense really is a good offense. Cyber attacks can be launched without warning, and their origin can be obscured or misdirected (e.g., a Chinese attack could be made to look like it came from Iran or Russia or NK). This being a highly secretive realm, it could escalate out of control before the public even realizes it's happening. You want to be really, really careful before you take down an adversary's power grid or water supply or financial system...especially if that adversary is known to be highly capable.

That said, I would expect that US capabilities run rings around Iran.

You would think, but North Korea, Syria, China and Russia have all made fools of the US at some point. Given further consideration I think a cyberattack by Russia in retaliation would be my biggest fear.

[Max Peck]

Cyberwar is hell...

The U.S. Government has blocked League of Legends in Iran and Syria

League of Legends has been blocked in Iran and Syria due to rising political tensions between the two countries and the United States, meaning players in both regions can no longer access one of the most popular games in the world.

The relationship between Iran and the U.S. has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks after the Iranian army shot down a U.S. drone it claimed had crossed into its airspace -- although U.S. military officials maintain the drone was in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Government responded to that incident by tightening sanctions on Iran and its strategic ally Syria, and is now preventing League players in both countries from accessing Riot Games' popular MOBA.

As spotted by Dot Esports, anyone who tries to play the game are simply shown a message that reads "due to U.S. laws and regulations, players in your country cannot access League of Legends at this time."

[hepcat]

...and just like that liberal elitists became war hawks.

And just like that, tough talking Republican war hawk becomes little scared rabbit with no backbone.

North Korea, Russia, Iran...they're gonna own America if your favorite coward stays in the oval office much longer.

[LawBeefaroni]

I thought the win conditions for cyberwarefare included not announcing to the world that you are conducting cyberwarefare. At least while you were engaged is said warfare.

[Holman]

I thought the win conditions for cyberwarefare included not announcing to the world that you are conducting cyberwarefare. At least while you were engaged is said warfare.

Depends on whether you want other countries to know you're doing it.

Iran probably isn't the only country we're cyber-harassing right now, but it's the one we're putting on public notice.

[GungHo]

Cyberwar is hell...

The U.S. Government has blocked League of Legends in Iran and Syria
It's not a good thing when you can't tell from 2 paragraphs whether or not an article is legit or from The Onion.

Not sure if that's on me or a reflection of a shitty world.

Also, what in the world does this accomplish? Like this is the straw that breaks the camels back with Iran? No LOL? Really? If it's part of some larger strategy great. Hopefully there is some cohesive narrative to it; But on its own this just seems dumb. Like trump-thought-of-it dumb.

[Freyland]

Well, eliminating players will likely move him up the leaderboards.

[pr0ner]

Donald Trump is issuing sanctions on Ayatollah Khomeini, who, is...

...wait...

...*checks notes*...

...you mean he's dead? Oops?

[Holman]

The worst part is how he reads English without understanding how sentences work.

[hepcat]

Background Pence is always fun. I keep expecting Trump to hurl something across the room and demand Pence fetch.

[em2nought]

...and just like that liberal elitists became war hawks.

And just like that, tough talking Republican war hawk becomes little scared rabbit with no backbone.

I don't think you'll find me having said much that was hawk like. Most of what I say is that if an enemy isn't worthy of a nuclear response then we shouldn't be involving ourselves as they aren't bad enough.

[hepcat]

I was talking about Trump.

[Holman]

Because all national conflicts can be resolved by (and ONLY by) utterly destroying whole metropolitan areas at a minimum.

Smart!!

[em2nought]

Because all national conflicts can be resolved by (and ONLY by) utterly destroying whole metropolitan areas at a minimum.

Smart!!

No, because we are FAR FAR FAR FAR FAR less likely to be involved in these quagmires that way.

[hepcat]

We had diplomacy at work for us until you folks voted in Cletus McOrangeFuck and the Inbred Jug Band.

[$iljanus]

We had diplomacy at work for us until you folks voted in Cletus McOrangeFuck and the Inbred Jug Band.

This is hilarious. Then I remember how he's fucked our country and I'm sad again.

[em2nought]

We had diplomacy at work for us until you folks voted in Cletus McOrangeFuck and the Inbred Jug Band.

I hardly think gifting Iran $150 billion on your way out the door constitutes good diplomacy.

[LawBeefaroni]

We had diplomacy at work for us until you folks voted in Cletus McOrangeFuck and the Inbred Jug Band.

I hardly think gifting Iran $150 billion on your way out the door constitutes good diplomacy.

Can we just put that bullshit to bed, finally?

THE FACTS: There was no $150 billion payout from the U.S. treasury. The money he refers to represents Iranian assets held abroad that were frozen until the international deal was reached and Tehran was allowed to access its funds.

The payout of about $1.8 billion is a separate matter. That dates to the 1970s, when Iran paid the U.S. $400 million for military equipment that was never delivered because the government was overthrown and diplomatic relations ruptured.

That left people, businesses and governments in each country indebted to partners in the other, and these complex claims took decades to sort out in tribunals and arbitration. For its part, Iran paid settlements of more than $2.5 billion to U.S. citizens and businesses.

The day after the nuclear deal was implemented, the U.S. and Iran announced they had settled the claim over the 1970s military equipment order, with the U.S. agreeing to pay the $400 million principal along with about $1.3 billion in interest. The $400 million was paid in cash and flown to Tehran on a cargo plane, which gave rise to Trump’s dramatic accounts of money stuffed in barrels or boxes and delivered in the dead of night. The arrangement provided for the interest to be paid later, not crammed into containers.

TL;DWTR:

The $150B was Iran's assets that were previously frozen and released upon the nuke deal. They got nothing except access to their own money.

The $400M was a refund for an arms deal from the 70s, plus ~$1.4B in interest. Iran paid $2.5B for their obligations and misc compensation. So around a net $1.1B for US interests.

[LawBeefaroni]

We had diplomacy at work for us until you folks voted in Cletus McOrangeFuck and the Inbred Jug Band.

I hardly think gifting Iran $150 billion on your way out the door constitutes good diplomacy.

Can we just put that bullshit to bed, finally?

THE FACTS: There was no $150 billion payout from the U.S. treasury. The money he refers to represents Iranian assets held abroad that were frozen until the international deal was reached and Tehran was allowed to access its funds.

The payout of about $1.8 billion is a separate matter. That dates to the 1970s, when Iran paid the U.S. $400 million for military equipment that was never delivered because the government was overthrown and diplomatic relations ruptured.

That left people, businesses and governments in each country indebted to partners in the other, and these complex claims took decades to sort out in tribunals and arbitration. For its part, Iran paid settlements of more than $2.5 billion to U.S. citizens and businesses.

The day after the nuclear deal was implemented, the U.S. and Iran announced they had settled the claim over the 1970s military equipment order, with the U.S. agreeing to pay the $400 million principal along with about $1.3 billion in interest. The $400 million was paid in cash and flown to Tehran on a cargo plane, which gave rise to Trump’s dramatic accounts of money stuffed in barrels or boxes and delivered in the dead of night. The arrangement provided for the interest to be paid later, not crammed into containers.

TL;DWTR:

The $150B was Iran's assets that were previously frozen and released upon the nuke deal. They got nothing except access to their own money.

The $400M was a refund for an arms deal from the 70s, plus ~$1.4B in interest. Iran paid $2.5B for their obligations and misc compensation. So around a net $700M net for US interests.

[hepcat]

It really did need to be said twice.

People like em2 are the same folks who believe Sandy Hook never happened, or that there’s a pizza place in Washington running a child sex ring for politicians. Gullible AND stubborn are no way to go through life.

[Kraken]

We had diplomacy at work for us until you folks voted in Cletus McOrangeFuck and the Inbred Jug Band.

While these are not the words I would have chosen, you do raise a good (and easily overlooked) point: The US has squandered its soft power. What diplomacy still takes place is a joke; nobody -- not even our allies -- trusts this administration, and rightly so. We capriciously cut foreign aid and impose tariffs willy-nilly. Goodwill toward America, always provisional, has all but disappeared. All that's left is hard power and threats.

[LawBeefaroni]

Do you mean to say that gutting the State Department and wiping out decades of institutional knowledge was possibly somehow detrimental to US self-interest?

[Kraken]

I'm saying we lost or broke all our tools except the hammer.

[em2nought]

The $400M was a refund for an arms deal from the 70s, plus ~$1.4B in interest.

Sort of makes me wish the Federales had seized my assets in 1983 and returned them in 2017. ...or that they put everything they take in for social security in whatever account they made sure to place Iran's moola in. Moola for Mullahs. LMAO Maybe they raided that as well and we're actually out an additional $400M?

Too bad Iran wasn't pulled over by a backwoods sheriff as they'd never have gotten that money back.

[LawBeefaroni]

Except we got $2.5B in compensation from Iran for that $400M deal too.

[hepcat]

I repeat, gullible AND stubborn are no way to go through life.

[pr0ner]

[Zarathud]

em2, the victim of international diplomacy.

Those who are worried about getting hoodwinked are so easy to swindle.

[Max Peck]

The Cybersecurity 202: Here's how Iran disrupted U.S. businesses the last time it launched major cyberattacks

Cyber pros are looking to history for guidance as they brace for retaliation following a U.S. cyberattack against Iran’s military command and control systems last week.

Iran has been one of the United States’ most consistent digital foes during the past decade. It’s also among the most nettlesome, with hackers targeting a broad swath of victims ranging from banks and hospitals to universities and government agencies.

Those digital strikes demonstrate patterns that might reveal how the Islamic Republic could use its hacking capabilities in an evolving tit-for-tat conflict that has included sanctions, cyber and physical attacks, and brinkmanship over Iran’s nuclear program, cyber pros told me.

“They want to punish us. They want to make a point, but they don’t want to do it in a way that leads to airstrikes,” Lewis said.

That could mean a series of attacks against smaller targets, such as pipelines or smaller electrical utilities, none of which rises to a level that necessitates a U.S. response, Lewis said.

Iran might also target U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, which would hurt U.S. interests but make it tougher to justify a U.S. counterstrike, he said.

Iran also has a long history of digital strikes in the Gulf region, most prominently a massive 2012 cyberstrike against the Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco, which destroyed or damaged the contents of thousands of computers and temporarily endangered the flow of a substantial portion of the world’s oil supply.

Finally, Iran is likely to aim for easy and poorly defended targets rather than go after a major company that’s better defended, Geoff Hancock, a principal at the company Advanced Cybersecurity Group, told me.

That means Iran is unlikely to target financial firms, which have vastly improved their defenses since Iran’s 2012 denial of service attacks, and they’re unlikely to aim for well-defended military targets, he said.

“They attack targets of opportunity,” Hancock said.

The oil and gas sector, which is generally a step behind the financial sector in developing digital protections, may be a possible target, though, Adam Meyers, vice president for intelligence at the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, told me.

“Oil and gas is a pretty routine target for Iranian intrusion, whether for intelligence collection or for disruptive or destructive attacks,” he said.