Iran

[Scoop20906]

Did the US ever need any of this? F*ck this idiot.

[malchior]

If you are hearing something it is the sound of a massive deplorable army that was worshipping him because he wouldn't get us into a war starting to pound on their war drums.

Also, there is word Trump is going to get on tv. That will not go well.

[Stefan Stirzaker]

Tweet for every occasion. Trump 2013

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 36256?s=19

[malchior]

Gorka is on Fox News goading on Trump. Hopefully Trump isn't watching.

[Isgrimnur]

The Twitter pic is 2.5 years old at least. Obviously the missiles aren't.

[malchior]

Sounds like Trump isn't going on tv. That sounds positive. Maybe the attack didn't cause any casualties.

[Smoove_B]

He's not going on TV because it's after 8pm and it would take at least an hour for him to get his hair into position. He can't just throw on a ball cap like he usually does - this is serious. Here's hoping cooler heads prevail, but I don't think we''ll know until after 3am tomorrow. And I think so much will depend on the damage that was done. Given his personality, I'm having a hard time imagining he won't retaliate. If god forbid an American serviceman died, all bets are off.

[hepcat]

Israel must be super happy this is happening.

<sarcasm off>

[gameoverman]

What happens if tomorrow Trump says "We proved our point" and the Iranians say "We proved our point" and it's business as usual? Will the people freaking out over this finally relax?

Have you ever seen a road rage incident where each driver is aggressive and they jostle for superiority until they are satisfied and they each go their separate ways? That's what this is, on a national scale.

It hurts people's credibility to cry out about WWIII breaking out when not even a regional war has broken out. That Saudi oil plant got attacked awhile back, so it's not like rocket or missile attacks are a new thing there.

[malchior]

What happens if tomorrow Trump says "We proved our point" and the Iranians say "We proved our point" and it's business as usual? Will the people freaking out over this finally relax?

Have you ever seen a road rage incident where each driver is aggressive and they jostle for superiority until they are satisfied and they each go their separate ways? That's what this is, on a national scale.

It hurts people's credibility to cry out about WWIII breaking out when not even a regional war has broken out. That Saudi oil plant got attacked awhile back, so it's not like rocket or missile attacks are a new thing there.

Wow. This is just a *little more serious* than a 'national road rage incident'. The Saudi missile attack wasn't even in the same league. Even if this cools down - there is no "return to business as usual".Relations have been massively set back and we now have Iran committed to the development of nuclear weapons. It is at *best* a return to the pre-deal except now Iran will not work with the United States anymore. Tensions will continue to rise and Iran will continue to agitate in the region with risk that there are other incidents.

In the grand scheme this still has the potential over time to turn into a regional conflict no matter how the next couple of days go. These hostilities were predicted when we walked about from the Iran deal. The Iranians who fought to negotiate that deal all got burned and paved the way for hardliners to push for a more aggressive posture. That turned into this. Many are saying that the situation is going to continue to be extremely dangerous and we have hard line factions of our own agitating for more action on our side as well. It isn't time to freak out yet but we can still look at this as an abject failure of our nation's foreign policy machinery. This action was taken with no strategic plan or positive outcome. On top it was incredibly risky and taken without consultation with any of our allies and we put their people in harms way. It was a massive fuck up so in retrospect it still is an utter disaster even without a conflict breaking out.

[Isgrimnur]

This wasn’t failure of our foreign policy machinery. It was a complete disregard and sabotage of norms and precedence.

[Smoove_B]

No worries, Trump believes he has no choice but to launch a massive retaliation.

On Tuesday’s edition of CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360,” chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta reported that Trump believes he is boxed into escalating against Iran after the ballistic missile strikes on U.S. troops.

“I wanted to pass along something I picked up from a source close to the White House who has spoken with the president in recent days,” said Acosta. “This source essentially saying that the president has no choice at this point but to retaliate against Iran, based on some of the talk that this source heard down at Mar-a-Lago and some of the other things that the president has been saying.”

“According to source, he’s already set a standard that he’s going to do a massive retaliation,” continued Acosta. “‘If he fails to do that, I think he looks weak.’ Those are the words coming to a source close to the White House that has spoken with the president in recent days. I have spoken with other Republican officials up on Capitol Hill, and there is a concern … even on the Republican side of the aisle that this thing could get out of control.”

I think this is overblown. It's not like Trump cares what people think about him in any way.

[Kurth]

From everything I'm seeing, it looks like the Iranians were really smart about this. They were transparent about their intended actions and took them with an eye toward Iranian domestic consumption. They limited their response to an attack on military assets tied to the drone attack on Suleimani, and it appears they did so in a way that avoided any U.S. casualties. Still, by openly carrying out and claiming the attack and by using Iranian-made ballistic missiles - arguably the most sophisticated weapons they have - they will be able to spin their retaliation in a way that should help assuage wounded Iranian pride.

If so, this is probably the best possible outcome. So much better than if they had gone the route of a series of attacks carried out by proxies.

Who knows with Trump, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we may be able to retreat to our corners at this point and avoid further escalation.

[Isgrimnur]

Not real people, anyway. If they’re rich, powerful, or sycophantic, he does.

[Alefroth]

Have you ever seen a road rage incident where each driver is aggressive and they jostle for superiority until they are satisfied and they each go their separate ways? That's what this is, on a national scale.

Do you think that's how Trump would behave in a road rage incident?

[Kurth]

Ukrainian Airlines plane crashes in Tehran shortly after takeoff

(CNN)A Boeing 737 plane carrying 180 passengers and crew crashed shortly after takeoff from Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran early Wednesday local time, Iran's semi-official news agency ISNA reported.

The Ukranian Airlines plane crashed due to technical difficulties, according to ISNA.
This is a developing story and will be updated.

Uh oh. I hope this is just really, really bad timing.

[YellowKing]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd like to live in a world where we don't have to go back and retcon every action the President takes, or explain why he didn't really mean what he said, or tell everyone to chill because that colossal blunder he made wasn't as bad as it appeared.

If the guy can't put together a coherent sentence, or take a rational action without a third party explaining it afterward, then he doesn't need to be the President. I wouldn't let someone like that work on my CAR. And I've got a 2005 Corolla that has been paid off for years.

[UsulofDoom]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd like to live in a world where we don't have to go back and retcon every action the President takes, or explain why he didn't really mean what he said, or tell everyone to chill because that colossal blunder he made wasn't as bad as it appeared.

If the guy can't put together a coherent sentence, or take a rational action without a third party explaining it afterward, then he doesn't need to be the President. I wouldn't let someone like that work on my CAR. And I've got a 2005 Corolla that has been paid off for years.

So being an eloquent speech presenter makes you a lawful good being? I don't care what you say but what you do.

[gbasden]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd like to live in a world where we don't have to go back and retcon every action the President takes, or explain why he didn't really mean what he said, or tell everyone to chill because that colossal blunder he made wasn't as bad as it appeared.

If the guy can't put together a coherent sentence, or take a rational action without a third party explaining it afterward, then he doesn't need to be the President. I wouldn't let someone like that work on my CAR. And I've got a 2005 Corolla that has been paid off for years.

So being an eloquent speech presenter makes you a lawful good being? I don't care what you say but what you do.

OK. So tell me what you liked about his actions. The point YK is making is that his actions are so blundering other people are having to try to explain it away to make it look rational. Feel free to try, but nobody has been doing a particularly good job so far.

[El Guapo]

Who knows with Trump, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we may be able to retreat to our corners at this point and avoid further escalation.

Yeah, he's famous for taking sensible, measured actions.

I do agree that Iran's retaliation was sufficiently measured that Trump has the option to take the off-ramp, if he's so inclined. I just wish I had more faith that he'll take it.

[Alefroth]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd like to live in a world where we don't have to go back and retcon every action the President takes, or explain why he didn't really mean what he said, or tell everyone to chill because that colossal blunder he made wasn't as bad as it appeared.

If the guy can't put together a coherent sentence, or take a rational action without a third party explaining it afterward, then he doesn't need to be the President. I wouldn't let someone like that work on my CAR. And I've got a 2005 Corolla that has been paid off for years.

So being an eloquent speech presenter makes you a lawful good being? I don't care what you say but what you do.

Who said anything about speech presenting?

[malchior]

They shot that shit down. They immediately announced the cause of the crash as technical difficulties (without an investigation) and there is video of the plane on fire before it crashed.

[Paingod]

They shot that shit down.

...it was not clear which country Iran would send the box to so that its data could be analyzed

Just because they're not sending it to Boeing doesn't mean they won't get a complete investigation done. I'll admit the timing is horrific and suspicious, but there's a possibility that Iranian air control was talking with the pilots about technical difficulties before the crash and the Black Box doesn't just have people yelling "We're hit! We're hit!"

I'm for waiting to see what comes of this. If the content of the Box never gets published, then yes - I would probably believe that someone in Iran, maybe not directly the state itself, shot the plane down. I think that even crashes in the US can take days or weeks before the contents of the Box are made public, if ever.

[Smoove_B]

Let's wait and see who was on the plane. Government officials? Scientists? Political targets? Legit plane crashes from mechanical failure aren't out of the question, but happening on the same day Iran is launching attacks against American interests (and likely anticipating retaliation) certainly warrants careful examination.

[Kurth]

Of the 176 people on board, 63 were Canadian. That seems odd considering this was a Ukraine International Airlines flight. What’s the connection to Canada?

Victims from seven countries: The victims include 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three British nationals, according to Ukraine's Foreign Minister.

[Paingod]

That's an oddly high number of Canadians for one flight, unless they were maybe something like aid workers being routed through the Ukraine to get back home.

A little quick Googling indicates Canada may also be a popular immigration destination for Iranians. There may have been some of that in the math here, with immigrants flying home after visiting with family in Iran? Would they be initially identified as Canadians or Iranian-Canadians?

[malchior]

Let's wait and see who was on the plane. Government officials? Scientists? Political targets? Legit plane crashes from mechanical failure aren't out of the question, but happening on the same day Iran is launching attacks against American interests (and likely anticipating retaliation) certainly warrants careful examination.

Was between 30 minutes and an hour after the missile strikes according to reports. We also now know the answer to what airline says...there is fighting going on...well let's take to the skies...

[malchior]

They shot that shit down.

...it was not clear which country Iran would send the box to so that its data could be analyzed

Just because they're not sending it to Boeing doesn't mean they won't get a complete investigation done. I'll admit the timing is horrific and suspicious, but there's a possibility that Iranian air control was talking with the pilots about technical difficulties before the crash and the Black Box doesn't just have people yelling "We're hit! We're hit!"

Obviously I don't know. I am however very skeptical about the authoritarian regime that announced the possible general cause of a crash for a relatively new plane, that was on fire, in the time window of hostilities, and without an investigation. They apparently couldn't even approach the plane because the fire was too hot.

I'm for waiting to see what comes of this. If the content of the Box never gets published, then yes - I would probably believe that someone in Iran, maybe not directly the state itself, shot the plane down. I think that even crashes in the US can take days or weeks before the contents of the Box are made public, if ever.

We're all waiting. Still chances it was shot down have to be north of 50% if not much higher.

Let's wait and see who was on the plane. Government officials? Scientists? Political targets? Legit plane crashes from mechanical failure aren't out of the question, but happening on the same day Iran is launching attacks against American interests (and likely anticipating retaliation) certainly warrants careful examination.

Funny enough I saw some chatter from people on the right asking the same things with speculation that someone with evidence on Biden must have been on the plane.

[Smoove_B]

With enough time for hair and makeup, Trump will be speaking to the nation (and world) at 11am (allegedly). CNN suggesting Iran's response was measured:

There is a growing belief among administration officials that Iran deliberately missed areas populated by Americans, multiple administration officials told CNN on Wednesday.

These officials floated the notion that Iran could have directed their missiles to hit areas that are populated by Americans, but intentionally did not. Iraq did receive advance warning that the strike was coming and were able to take "necessary precautions," according to a statement from Iraq's Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi.

So I fully expect Trump to announce nuclear retaliation this morning.

[El Guapo]

They shot that shit down.

...it was not clear which country Iran would send the box to so that its data could be analyzed

Just because they're not sending it to Boeing doesn't mean they won't get a complete investigation done. I'll admit the timing is horrific and suspicious, but there's a possibility that Iranian air control was talking with the pilots about technical difficulties before the crash and the Black Box doesn't just have people yelling "We're hit! We're hit!"

Obviously I don't know. I am however very skeptical about the authoritarian regime that announced the possible general cause of a crash for a relatively new plane, that was on fire, in the time window of hostilities, and without an investigation. They apparently couldn't even approach the plane because the fire was too hot.

I'm for waiting to see what comes of this. If the content of the Box never gets published, then yes - I would probably believe that someone in Iran, maybe not directly the state itself, shot the plane down. I think that even crashes in the US can take days or weeks before the contents of the Box are made public, if ever.

We're all waiting. Still chances it was shot down have to be north of 50% if not much higher.

Let's wait and see who was on the plane. Government officials? Scientists? Political targets? Legit plane crashes from mechanical failure aren't out of the question, but happening on the same day Iran is launching attacks against American interests (and likely anticipating retaliation) certainly warrants careful examination.

Funny enough I saw some chatter from people on the right asking the same things with speculation that someone with evidence on Biden must have been on the plane.

Who was on the plane is certainly important. Otherwise I don't really see what Iran's motivation would be to shoot down the plane, although the timing is super suspicious. Also possible that it was shot down by some type of militia with at least ambiguous ties to the government.

[Blackhawk]

With enough time for hair and makeup, Trump will be speaking to the nation (and world) at 11am (allegedly). CNN suggesting Iran's response was measured:

There is a growing belief among administration officials that Iran deliberately missed areas populated by Americans, multiple administration officials told CNN on Wednesday.

These officials floated the notion that Iran could have directed their missiles to hit areas that are populated by Americans, but intentionally did not. Iraq did receive advance warning that the strike was coming and were able to take "necessary precautions," according to a statement from Iraq's Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi.

So I fully expect Trump to announce nuclear retaliation this morning.

There is a crisis in the middle east between the US and Iran.

And Iran is apparently the one being reasonable.

I don't even have words for this.

[Isgrimnur]

[Smoove_B]

And Iran is apparently the one being reasonable.I don't even have words for this.

Exactly Iran is the rational actor here. Everything has gone Topsy-turvey. Milhouse is absolutely correct.

[Kraken]

With enough time for hair and makeup, Trump will be speaking to the nation (and world) at 11am (allegedly). CNN suggesting Iran's response was measured:

There is a growing belief among administration officials that Iran deliberately missed areas populated by Americans, multiple administration officials told CNN on Wednesday.

These officials floated the notion that Iran could have directed their missiles to hit areas that are populated by Americans, but intentionally did not. Iraq did receive advance warning that the strike was coming and were able to take "necessary precautions," according to a statement from Iraq's Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi.

So I fully expect Trump to announce nuclear retaliation this morning.

There is a crisis in the middle east between the US and Iran.

And Iran is apparently the one being reasonable.

I don't even have words for this.

It does appear that Iranian restraint gives both sides the opportunity to back down from brinksmanship, and get back to the covert stuff that they enjoy. One hopes that Trump will play along.

[Blackhawk]

I don't enjoy being the bad guy.

[Paingod]

So I fully expect Trump to announce nuclear retaliation this morning.

I think all we need to do is change the channel to Fox News to see what he's being told to do. If they're preaching fire and brimstone and hellacious bombings, then grab your pants and hold on tight.

Now only a swift and resolute U.S. response to Wednesday’s attack and Iran’s continued state-sponsored terrorism will save Iraq and U.S. interests from Iranian fanatics lashing out to deflect tension from Iran’s economic free-fall caused by corrupt and unreasonable leadership.
...
We now have an administration that does not acquiesce and draw imaginary “red lines.” President Trump’s message is clear that if any American or U.S. interests are targeted by terrorists, we will respond swiftly and appropriately.

Translation: They slapped our collective faces. Blow them back to hell.

[Holman]

Funny enough I saw some chatter from people on the right asking the same things with speculation that someone with evidence on Biden must have been on the plane.

Well of course. Why else would Hillary have shot it down?

[malchior]

Who was on the plane is certainly important. Otherwise I don't really see what Iran's motivation would be to shoot down the plane, although the timing is super suspicious. Also possible that it was shot down by some type of militia with at least ambiguous ties to the government.

Honestly I think that if they shot it down it'll be because it was a mistake. Fog of war.

On the Trump front - he is set to speak any moment now. I hope it is measured but...there is probably a decent chance it will be a short statement that'll turn into a rambling, boasting word salad.

[stessier]

This happened in The West Wing. Iran shot down a plane because the radar signature is very similar to our AWACS because, like, it's the same plane.

It would actually make sense here - an hour after they hit us, they see a signature that might be part of a retaliatory strike and shoot it down. I'm sure crazier things have happened.

[ChaoZ]

Who was on the plane is certainly important. Otherwise I don't really see what Iran's motivation would be to shoot down the plane, although the timing is super suspicious. Also possible that it was shot down by some type of militia with at least ambiguous ties to the government.

Honestly I think that if they shot it down it'll be because it was a mistake. Fog of war.

I think this is the most likely answer (if the plane was indeed shot down). The plane took off an hour delayed, after the country has just launched a bunch of missiles and are on the highest state of alert. An unscheduled blip on the radar may have caused the mistake.