[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Isgrimnur]

Because today is somehow worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis.

[LawBeefaroni]

Because today is somehow worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Nuclear end times are only part of the equation. I think they feel that the global climate change coefficient makes up for the lack of a hot cold war.

Edit: in their words:

As the statement issued today by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists explains: “Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode.”

Not a great time for a global pandemic.

[Kraken]

Because today is somehow worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Yup.

Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode.

During the missile crisis we had a functional government and accurate information.

[stessier]

Because today is somehow worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The clock is amusing. Like, if you compared malchior and I running it, the results would be drastically different despite having the same inputs. Which is not a knock on malchior, just saying that there is nothing scientific or meaningful about it. It's just one particular take on the facts.

[Dogstar]

Given that the quarantine has expanded twice again since I posted and forbidden any tourist groups from traveling internationally, I'm not entirely sure that Doomsday clock is wrong. It might be time for everyone to rewatch Contagion.

[Smoove_B]

My discussion in the last 48 hours or so have been filled with people asking me about this outbreak. My first question back is to ask whether or not they received a flu vaccination, and so far it's 50/50 on y/n. There's definitely reason to watch what's happening, but in terms of real risk *right now*, you're more likely to be exposed to and suffer from the flu. Not as sexy or exciting, but it's the truth.

[Defiant]

I would imagine you could probably find a similar "pattern" for any decade prior to, say, the last 50 years or so.

[Defiant]

The doomsday clock just moved to 100 seconds to midnight. Closest it's ever been to EOtW IIRC.

We're going to be screwed come March, when it's time to move the clocks ahead an hour because of daylight savings.

[Isgrimnur]

My discussion in the last 48 hours or so have been filled with people asking me about this outbreak. My first question back is to ask whether or not they received a flu vaccination, and so far it's 50/50 on y/n. There's definitely reason to watch what's happening, but in terms of real risk *right now*, you're more likely to be exposed to and suffer from the flu. Not as sexy or exciting, but it's the truth.

And while the flu vaccine stacks the odds in your favor, it is not a silver bullet.

Lancet, 2011

Efficacy of [trivalent inactivated vaccine] was shown in eight (67%) of the 12 seasons analysed in ten randomised controlled trials (pooled efficacy 59% [95% CI 51–67] in adults aged 18–65 years). ... Efficacy of [live attenuated influenza vaccine] was shown in nine (75%) of the 12 seasons analysed in ten randomised controlled trials (pooled efficacy 83% [69–91]) in children aged 6 months to 7 years. ... Vaccine effectiveness was variable for seasonal influenza: six (35%) of 17 analyses in nine studies showed significant protection against medically attended influenza in the outpatient or inpatient setting. Median monovalent pandemic H1N1 vaccine effectiveness in five observational studies was 69% (range 60–93).

[Dogstar]

To be clear, I don't think that there's much risk here right now. But the rumors, misinformation, and use of the PLA to quarantine 56 million people (and that number is likely to grow) leads me to believe that it's not a great time to be living in China in terms of being at risk.

To me, the threat is the apparent 2-5 days where a person isn't showing symptoms but is contagious that's the real challenge of this illness, especially considering the R naught was estimated by one paper to be around 3.6-4, which would be way ahead of the WHO's estimate of 1.4 to 2.5.

[em2nought]

With all the "stuff" people like to poke into their bodies, swallow, or inhale, I'm confused by the resistance to getting a flu shot.

[naednek]

With all the "stuff" people like to poke into their bodies, swallow, or inhale, I'm confused by the resistance to getting a flu shot.

Here have a flu shot, No that has chemcicals in it and it might kill me or mess me up.

Here, want a cig? Hey thanks! I've been dying for one all day. DYING!

[Smoove_B]

This is a bit confusing to me in that the actions don't match the message we're all hearing (publicly and privately). This smacks a bit of what I remember shortly after the anthrax attacks in 2001 when politicians were demanding Cipro despite very little evidence they were exposed.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1221130664273203200

[The Meal]

I've been assuming the Chinese response has been to try to cool things down in Hong Kong, but I'm not sure how this plays into that.

[Daehawk]

Diseases from China and Africa are going to kill this planet one day from the looks of things. When you hear of a new deadly form of a bug its those two contries more than other combined.

With the antivaxers these days though mo telling what will mutate and pop up here in the States. If the low brain power people of the world dont get us a bug will.

[Dogstar]

The Lancet with an initial study on the first 41 patients that might suggest why China dropped the curtain over Wuhan and other other infected areas. I have to think the infection and mortality rates are are way, way high (but I'm not an epidemiologist or any sort of health expert) simply because the novelty of the illness and before any sort of treatment protocol was developed.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... estitle180

[malchior]

Because today is somehow worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The clock is amusing. Like, if you compared malchior and I running it, the results would be drastically different despite having the same inputs. Which is not a knock on malchior, just saying that there is nothing scientific or meaningful about it. It's just one particular take on the facts.

No offense taken. In the end it is an awareness device that is meant to spur conversation. It does that. Is it effective? I don't think so. People end up arguing about it stuck to whatever they believed anyway.

The clock is interesting in the sense that big picture risks are difficult to handicap and get people to care about because...they don't happen often or ever. The disease stuff is easier to effectively communicate about. Either people get sick or they don't. It gets contained or it spreads. It is much more concrete and relatively immediate.

[msduncan]

Can we all agree to nickname this new outbreak the “Kung Flu”?

[LawBeefaroni]

I thought, "No way this will significantly impact Corona beer sales," giving people say too much credit.

The searches have been prevalent in North America (but not in Mexico, where the beer is produced) and western Europe (we see you, Finland), as well as in Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, and New Zealand.

It's disappointing that this needs to be written, but the only thing that Corona beer and nCoV have in common is the origin of their names.

Haha, well, harmless fun mostly.


But this? Ugh.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, conflating a respiratory virus with a brand of beer isn't the dumbest piece of misinformation that has appeared on the internet. The Daily Beast reports that the conspiracy purveyors at QAnon are suggesting that the best way to protect yourself from coronavirus is by drinking bleach. In both tweets and videos, QAnon associates have suggested that their followers should purchase and consume a product called Miracle Mineral Solution, Miracle Mineral Supplement, or simply MMS.

“I’m going to have to get home, and MMS the whole state,” the outlet quoted QAnon promoter Jordan Sather as saying during a recent video. “MMS the whole shit out of everything.” There are a number of problems with that, including the fact that MMS is made with an industrial bleaching agent.

[Jeff V]

Well, you have to admit, bleach is more palatable than Corona.

[morlac]

So they had a 30% increase in confirmed cases in one day in mainland China. Russia is closing borders, airlines are grounding flights, etc. I'm usually not one for fear mongering but this one is worrying me. Not sure I can recall this kind of reaction from any previous virus outbreaks. I suspect the mortality rate is worse than what we know so far.

How worried should we be on this one?

[LordMortis]

Perhaps unsurprisingly, conflating a respiratory virus with a brand of beer isn't the dumbest piece of misinformation that has appeared on the internet. The Daily Beast reports that the conspiracy purveyors at QAnon are suggesting that the best way to protect yourself from coronavirus is by drinking bleach. In both tweets and videos, QAnon associates have suggested that their followers should purchase and consume a product called Miracle Mineral Solution, Miracle Mineral Supplement, or simply MMS.

“I’m going to have to get home, and MMS the whole state,” the outlet quoted QAnon promoter Jordan Sather as saying during a recent video. “MMS the whole shit out of everything.” There are a number of problems with that, including the fact that MMS is made with an industrial bleaching agent.

That's gotta make Smoove dance at least.

[Smoove_B]

So they had a 30% increase in confirmed cases in one day in mainland China. Russia is closing borders, airlines are grounding flights, etc. I'm usually not one for fear mongering but this one is worrying me. Not sure I can recall this kind of reaction from any previous virus outbreaks. I suspect the mortality rate is worse than what we know so far.

It continues to be a moving target. I can tell you that domestically, we're on it. Well, at least my state is. I can only assume by extension other states are as well (and that's the message I've heard). By "on it" I mean actively monitoring.

How worried should we be on this one?

Not very? Did you get your flu shot this season? You're more likely to contract and suffer from that than this. I have no doubts the data in China is and has been manipulated; I don't believe we're hearing the full story. It's entirely possible this outbreak is much larger and more widespread than they initially let on, so the numbers we're seeing could be reflecting that and not an rapid spread.

The global reaction (both in China and outside) is absolutely unprecedented. I can absolutely understand how it looks, but currently risk is very, very low for Americans. That might change in the coming weeks, but I'm still confident in our infrastructure overall to handle those that get it. The worried-well? That's going to be the challenge.

[Jeff V]

Not sure I can recall this kind of reaction from any previous virus outbreaks.

China was slammed internationally on their response to SARS, so yes, they are being intentionally more aggressive this time. We would hope as these things come about, experience will make the response quicker and more effective.

[LawBeefaroni]

We are getting direction to implement flu protocols. Which isn't unusual but they are stepping it up far more than usual. Patients getting issued masks, asking travel history up front, etc. Still looks precautionary but seems a lot stronger than regular flu season.

[Smoove_B]

Unofficially I was hearing about shortages of medical-grade masks and gloves so they might be pushing hospitals and larger medical centers to start inventory and response preparation to see if that's truly the case.

And doctors should be asking patients about travel normally. Slackers!

[Freyland]

Unofficially I was hearing about shortages of medical-grade masks and gloves so they might be pushing hospitals and larger medical centers to start inventory and response preparation to see if that's truly the case.

And doctors should be asking patients about travel normally. Slackers!

For what seems like a few years now, we have been told to ask patients about travel that might have exposed them to Ebola virus. Now of course we also have to ask about travel associated with upper respiratory infections.

I have decided to save time and just ask patients if they have traveled and now have nose-bleeds.

[LawBeefaroni]

Unofficially I was hearing about shortages of medical-grade masks and gloves so they might be pushing hospitals and larger medical centers to start inventory and response preparation to see if that's truly the case.

And doctors should be asking patients about travel normally. Slackers!

I'm talking front desk and MAs asking. Doctors do (should) already. But if you're checking in with flu-like and been to China? Here, let's go into this room and implement isolation protocol until the doctor can see you....


I've got a pile of N95 masks at home, mostly for working with sanders and such. And the wife said I was crazy for buying a 100 pack!



BTW, apparently the common respiratory viral panel includes coronavirus and there are numerous positives (229E, NL63, etc) that are NOT this coronavirus but are freaking people out if it's not explained very clearly. Only the CDC has a test for nCoV.

[LawBeefaroni]

Oh yay! US ground zero.

A relative of the Chicago woman who was diagnosed with coronavirus last week has now tested positive for the virus, marking the first instance of person-to-person spread in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday.

[LawBeefaroni]

Oh yay! US ground zero.

A relative of the Chicago woman who was diagnosed with coronavirus last week has now tested positive for the virus, marking the first instance of person-to-person spread in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday.

Technically they're in DuPage so not Chicago. But close enough.

[Smoove_B]

Hmm...I wonder if that was part of the CDC call I missed out on earlier today.

Regardless, I'm quite interested in learning more about the woman, but from what I understand she returned from China and remained at home and was in close-contact with her husband (as you'd expect). What's been shared isn't out of line with what we've been told is happening in terms of disease transmission. I feel bad for local investigators as they now need to figure out what her husband was doing (and if he was out and about) while he was potentially asymptomatic. If so, there are going to be generic "If you were at [Location X] on [Date] from [Time] to [Time], please notify..." messages that will be coming in the next 24 hours. Again, all normal; all expected.

Still no reason to panic, IMHO.

[morlac]

So they had a 30% increase in confirmed cases in one day in mainland China. Russia is closing borders, airlines are grounding flights, etc. I'm usually not one for fear mongering but this one is worrying me. Not sure I can recall this kind of reaction from any previous virus outbreaks. I suspect the mortality rate is worse than what we know so far.

It continues to be a moving target. I can tell you that domestically, we're on it. Well, at least my state is. I can only assume by extension other states are as well (and that's the message I've heard). By "on it" I mean actively monitoring.

How worried should we be on this one?

Not very? Did you get your flu shot this season? You're more likely to contract and suffer from that than this. I have no doubts the data in China is and has been manipulated; I don't believe we're hearing the full story. It's entirely possible this outbreak is much larger and more widespread than they initially let on, so the numbers we're seeing could be reflecting that and not an rapid spread.

The global reaction (both in China and outside) is absolutely unprecedented. I can absolutely understand how it looks, but currently risk is very, very low for Americans. That might change in the coming weeks, but I'm still confident in our infrastructure overall to handle those that get it. The worried-well? That's going to be the challenge.

Thank you Smoove. This may be the first time you have responded in this thread and I have actually felt less worried

Yes, Flu shot has been procurred. Pretty sure I caught it anyhow as I got knocked sideways for few weeks with "something" flu like.

Won't lie, The global reaction is slightly terrifying me. I get the overreaction to the under reaction on SARS but the universal response makes it seem like officials know more than they are letting on. I'm sure I am personally over reacting but this seems like the opening montage of a virus based disaster/post apoc. movie/game. I'll not so patiently wait for this to blow over...in my bunk (by bunk I mean bunker).

[Dogstar]

Still a fun clip from Outbreak. That didn't bother me nearly as much when I saw it, as Stephen King pretty well scared the crap out of me with The Stand years before describing the initial spread of Captain Trip from the state patrol officer.

[Smoove_B]

Thank you Smoove. This may be the first time you have responded in this thread and I have actually felt less worried

Ok, I'll work on something new and terrifying to share as a distraction.

Yes, Flu shot has been procurred. Pretty sure I caught it anyhow as I got knocked sideways for few weeks with "something" flu like.

No matter what, you're always going to be better off having received that vaccination, even if you do get the flu.

Won't lie, The global reaction is slightly terrifying me. I get the overreaction to the under reaction on SARS but the universal response makes it seem like officials know more than they are letting on. I'm sure I am personally over reacting but this seems like the opening montage of a virus based disaster/post apoc. movie/game. I'll not so patiently wait for this to blow over...in my bunk (by bunk I mean bunker).

The global reaction has the opposite effect on me - it reassures me that everything I've learned, all the schooling, training and certifications I've gone through actually meant something because when we're faced with a crisis, the world is doing what we were told would happen. Now, what is happening (in terms of response scale) is unprecedented in China, but I'm hopeful we get more data and information about how it all went and what lessons can be learned. I'm also of the mind that humans are complacent creatures so if this gets us to "kick the tires" on a pandemic response, that's not a bad thing - assuming we can learn from it.

Regardless of response and how quickly this all seemed to escalate, the time to panic is when young, healthy adults are succumbing to the illness. It's not that we don't care about the elderly, it's just that they're likely already weakened by something so using them as a baseline for overall severity isn't very useful. Instead, when younger people are dying - and doing so quickly - that is the nightmare scenario. Thankfully no person-to-person spread, but still an eye-opener.

[Daehawk]

As others said...

Russia closes land border with China.

Can you imagine something like this wiping out China?

[em2nought]

Can you imagine something like this wiping out China?

Hmm, would the US debt to China get wiped out as well?

[Smoove_B]

Can you imagine something like this wiping out China?

When you realize that human pathogens don't respect borders, nationalities or religions it should help to guide best practice.

[morlac]

No I would not rather imagine it wiping out China. Viruses tend to be agnostic towards what flavor of human they infect. They like them all.


WHO is now declaring this a Global Health Emrgency.

Screw this, I'm heading for my Cabin in the woods

[Anonymous Bosch]

Can you imagine something like this wiping out China?

Given that China is the third largest country in the world in terms of land area with a population of 1.4 billion, that seems highly improbable from nCoV. I suspect the economic impact to China (and potentially the rest of the world) is likely to be the greater concern.

[Blackhawk]

Shorter version, if it wiped out China, it would wipe out the rest of us, too.