[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Smoove_B]

Confirmed in this grouping, yes. It's also not unusual. Measles is another example of a disease that can be spread before you have visible signs and symptoms. This is also why public health pushes vaccinations - because it's possible in some cases to get people ill before you even know you're sick.

From the article:

This case of 2019-nCoV infection was diagnosed in Germany and transmitted outside of Asia. However, it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture.

The real bigger picture and practical implications are more related to travel bans and/or airport/border screening. If we're collectively relying on visual assessment and the use of a thermometer to gauge whether or not someone is ill (and therefore likely spreading illness), this study would suggest that it won't work.

[Kurth]

Just an update: After contacting some of the leaders of the company that runs the trade show I was planning on attending in Vegas next week, I learned that a "significant number" of the vendors attending from China have cancelled, and the show is anticipating most -- if not all -- will pull out. Makes sense given I don't see how they can even get here given recent news about airlines cancelling flights. So that makes it an easy call for me: No Vegas next week.

[Freyland]

But think of the marketing if they had to quarantine the city....

"What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas."

[Daehawk]

2 people I follow on YT have videos up on this. They both lived in China for over 10 years and have Chinese wives and family there. Winston(Serpentza) now lives in the US and China as work demands and Matt(laowhy86) still lives in China I believe.

[Daehawk]

Nigerians added to travel ban.

Ok now how is Prince Ghandi going to bring my suitcase of money to me my rich Aunt Sumi left me?

[gameoverman]

I've been thinking of the math on this. They say it can take up to two weeks to manifest in a person, and that person could be spreading it that entire time. Okay, so if we count this past week as Week 1 of it being outside of China that means by mid February we'll see one of two things.

One, the worst case scenario, we'll see a massive jump in foreign(to China) cases. That would be all the travelers from China who were infected but we didn't know. Then by the end of February, which is another two weeks, we'll see another massive jump in cases. That's from all the people who were infected by the travelers. If we have thousands and thousands of sick Americans by the end of February then I'll start to get nervous.

Two, best case, mid February shows some new cases but nothing large scale. This would mean it's not as contagious, or as hard to fight off, as everyone thinks. It would mean not that many travelers were infected. By the end of February there will be more cases but again the numbers will be small. This would mean the returning travelers didn't spread it all over the place. If this is what happens then I'd consider that proof that this pandemic is running out of gas.

[Freyland]

Posting just because I didn't want the last entry about an epidemic being by a person named "gameoverman".

[Alefroth]

Nigerians added to travel ban.

Ok now how is Prince Ghandi going to bring my suitcase of money to me my rich Aunt Sumi left me?

Wrong thread. That's because they are the wrong color and religion, not because they are sick.

[Kraken]

First case reported in Boston. Hysteria to follow.

[Smoove_B]

I've been thinking of the math on this. They say it can take up to two weeks to manifest in a person, and that person could be spreading it that entire time. Okay, so if we count this past week as Week 1 of it being outside of China that means by mid February we'll see one of two things.

I think it's more likely that this will peak some time in February, though we won't know that until March when it's declared to be over. Again, total speculation on my part but I'm using SARS as a basis for comparison.

I think we'll see it's highly contagious and spreads relatively easily with close contacts (like norovirus). However, I'm still not seeing anything suggesting virulence. This might just end up being something on the level of the "common cold", which can unfortunately cause problems for individuals suffering from other illness and/or the elderly - but even that remains to be seen.

What I'm confident about is that we're going to see more and more cases being discovered globally in the coming weeks and many more cases being discovered in the United States. This isn't a time to panic, it's really just a function of how the system works.

Also, if I haven't said it enough - wash your hands and get a flu shot!

Don't worry about masks if you can't get them.

[gameoverman]

First case reported in Boston. Hysteria to follow.

This is something we'll see as the two weeks for the first wave of infected travelers comes to an end. Popping up in Boston isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's about how many more places it pops up. We have to expect some were infected, it's impossible for there to be zero cases. It will be interesting to see what the situation in Boston is in two or three weeks.

[Daehawk]

Wonder if the Super Bowl will cause an outbreak?

[Kraken]

First case reported in Boston. Hysteria to follow.

This is something we'll see as the two weeks for the first wave of infected travelers comes to an end. Popping up in Boston isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's about how many more places it pops up. We have to expect some were infected, it's impossible for there to be zero cases. It will be interesting to see what the situation in Boston is in two or three weeks.

This fellow developed symptoms a day after flying in from Wuhan, and was quickly diagnosed and isolated. He's only mildly ill and recovering nicely. So either they caught it right away and stopped it there, or he was infectious before he was symptomatic and more cases will pop up. As I understand it, that's still an unanswered question.

[Smoove_B]

Wonder if the Super Bowl will cause an outbreak?

The Super Bowl has been implicated in other outbreaks....

EDIT: I still think people are more likely to get measles, the flu, norovirus or any number of other illnesses at the Super Bowl than this new coronavirus variant.

[Roman]

2 people I follow on YT have videos up on this. They both lived in China for over 10 years and have Chinese wives and family there. Winston(Serpentza) now lives in the US and China as work demands and Matt(laowhy86) still lives in China I believe.

These 2 videos ring very very true in my experience. I work with a guy from mainland China and he is fiercely protective of anything critical of Chinese country/people.

Just last week I asked him what if anything he was hearing over We-Chat and he replied that he was so proud of his people all coming together like this..... blah blah blah.

[ImLawBoy]

Boy twin has an adenovirus right now, but I'm telling people it's coronavirus for notoriety.

[em2nought]

Boy twin has an adenovirus right now, but I'm telling people it's coronavirus for notoriety.

Might be fun to get a "CDC" t-shirt printed up and walk around everywhere with a mask and clipboard.

[UsulofDoom]

Here is a good link to the John Hopkins reporting. Shows locations on a map. My closes is one case in Boston 150 miles a way.

Coronaviris Stats and map
Total Confirmed 17,491
Total Deaths 362
Total Recovered 536

[stessier]

Here is a good link to the John Hopkins reporting. Shows locations on a map. My closes is one case in Boston 150 miles a way.

Coronaviris Stats and map
Total Confirmed 17,491
Total Deaths 362
Total Recovered 536

BAM!

[UsulofDoom]

Here is a good link to the John Hopkins reporting. Shows locations on a map. My closes is one case in Boston 150 miles a way.

Coronaviris Stats and map
Total Confirmed 17,491
Total Deaths 362
Total Recovered 536

BAM!

Sorry Did not see that.
Todays Stats.

Total Confirmed 20,701
Total Deaths 427
Total Recovered 727

I was hoping the recovered would be much more.
Still 11 in US
Also none in South America or Africa seems strange.

[morlac]

Interesting...

This is the area closest to Ground Zero:

Confirmed Cases: Hubei Mainland China
Province/State Hubei
Country/Region Mainland China
Last Update 2/4/2020, 4:43 AM
Confirmed 13,522
Deaths 414
Recovered 397

Almost all the deaths here, and a mortality rate higher than recovery?

[stessier]

BAM!

Sorry Did not see that.

Nothing to be sorry about. I get to BAM so infrequently, that I like to make a point when it happens.

[LawBeefaroni]

Interesting...

This is the area closest to Ground Zero:

Confirmed Cases: Hubei Mainland China
Province/State Hubei
Country/Region Mainland China
Last Update 2/4/2020, 4:43 AM
Confirmed 13,522
Deaths 414
Recovered 397

Almost all the deaths here, and a mortality rate higher than recovery?

The death/recovery ratio isn't much to go on when you have 13,522 total cases (so over 12K still infected). Deaths may be he weakest/sickest. Many recovered may not be reported yet because hey weren't detected/diagnosed. It's still early to be doing mortality rates.

[Isgrimnur]

[Victoria Raverna]

Seem like the overall mortality rate at the end is going to be end up much lower than 2%?

If Hubei province has mortality rate of 414/13522 or around 3% then outside Hubei province is (493 - 414) / (24558 - 13522) = 79 / 11066 or around 0,7%.

Hubei's higher mortality rate is because they have too many patients and not enough medical facilities and staffs to handle them?

[UsulofDoom]

Here is a good link to the John Hopkins reporting. Shows locations on a map. My closes is one case in Boston 150 miles a way.

Coronaviris Stats and map
Total Confirmed 17,491
Total Deaths 362
Total Recovered 536

BAM!

Todays Stats.

Total Confirmed 28149
Total Deaths 565
Total Recovered 1146
Hope to see bigger recovery in the next week.

I was hoping the recovered would be much more.
Still 12 in US up one
Also none in South America or Africa.

[Isgrimnur]

The answer is always Greenland or Madagascar.

[em2nought]

The answer is always Greenland or Madagascar.

They won't sell.

[Jeff V]

[Jeff V]

Also none in South America or Africa seems strange.

Obviously the virus cannot coexist with ebola. Or Shakira.

[LordMortis]

I'm not one to be nervous easily, but I'm a bit nervous.

Hand hygiene is paramount. Having those masks is also helpful, just make sure you're changing them "as often as necessary". There's no magic number, but they're notoriously worn for far too long by the general public. They're really good at protecting people from splatter. But when you wear them all the time the moisture from your exhaled breath compromises the fabric and can allow viral particles through.

Honestly, being hyper-aware of your hands and what you're touching is arguably the most important thing. Sanitizing wipes and hand sanitizers are good but personally I'd be a little hesitant on over using them because of the microbial disruption they cause (i.e. killing off the good microbes as well as the bad). Handwashing is always ideal but I can appreciate the idea of going into an airport bathroom to disinfect your hands as being counter-intuitive.

I wouldn't be more nervous about this. I would just continue to maintain vigilance and awareness. Hand hygiene!

Smoove has been harrassing Patton Oswalt.

[Smoove_B]

[Anonymous Bosch]

I'm not one to be nervous easily, but I'm a bit nervous.

Hand hygiene is paramount. Having those masks is also helpful, just make sure you're changing them "as often as necessary". There's no magic number, but they're notoriously worn for far too long by the general public. They're really good at protecting people from splatter. But when you wear them all the time the moisture from your exhaled breath compromises the fabric and can allow viral particles through.

Honestly, being hyper-aware of your hands and what you're touching is arguably the most important thing. Sanitizing wipes and hand sanitizers are good but personally I'd be a little hesitant on over using them because of the microbial disruption they cause (i.e. killing off the good microbes as well as the bad). Handwashing is always ideal but I can appreciate the idea of going into an airport bathroom to disinfect your hands as being counter-intuitive.

I wouldn't be more nervous about this. I would just continue to maintain vigilance and awareness. Hand hygiene!

Another tip for preventing infection during air travel I recall my doctor mentioning, is to always keep air flowing around you using your overhead air vent.

By using the vent, it provides a useful air barrier around you that creates turbulence. So if/when other passengers cough or sneeze, the turbulence from your air vent simultaneously blocks infectious airborne particles from reaching you and quickly forces them to the ground.

[LawBeefaroni]

I like to take a purfume spray bottle top (top only folks, because TSA) and then stick it in those small liquor bottles once on board. A steady mist of Wild Turkey or Dewar's will ward off the even the most annoying life-threatening death plague.

[Smoove_B]

I haven't seen that air thing mentioned as something that's been tested, but in theory it sounds like it should help.

In less than great news, there's been a significant uptick in misinformation over the last day or so being shared on social media (Twitter and Facebook, mainly). Stay vigilant. Verify.

[stessier]

In less than great news, there's been a significant uptick in misinformation over the last day or so being shared on social media (Twitter and Facebook, mainly). Stay vigilant. Verify.

You're new to the internet, aren't you?

[Smoove_B]

I guess I was surprised to read there are government-sponsored groups apparently spreading misinformation on social media platforms. The crazy moms in Colorado telling each other to rub their sick kids with essential oils is a whole different story.

[Daehawk]

So who will be the first to start a rumor if they ever come out with a preventative for this that it causes cancer so all the dumb people will die? Im sure someone will.

[LawBeefaroni]

So who will be the first to start a rumor if they ever come out with a preventative for this that it causes cancer so all the dumb people will die? Im sure someone will.

It's not the dumb that die. Dumb finds a way. It's the sick, infants, and anyone else not able to be vaccinated for real, actual reasons.

[Daehawk]

So who will be the first to start a rumor if they ever come out with a preventative for this that it causes cancer so all the dumb people will die? Im sure someone will.

It's not the dumb that die. Dumb finds a way. It's the sick, infants, and anyone else not able to be vaccinated for real, actual reasons.

Ya thats true. I dont usually consider that because I think everyone with a brain has been immunized. I forget some haven't or cant. Sorry my own stupid it seems.