tesla motors

[Zaxxon]

$621 AH. I'm guessing $600 or so at open.

I would not be surprised at a drop down off this high, or at another rise. Still have the conf call in 90 min, and one never knows what Musk will say.

Either way, those shares I sold the call on are about to go poof. First-world problem, and probably a wise move to lock something in.

[Isgrimnur]

Things not to Google at work: Electric Hummer

General Motors recently confirmed it's working on an all-electric pickup for 2021. Earlier reports suggested this EV truck would also relaunch GM's defunct Hummer brand, and as it turns out, those rumors were correct. Sort of.

GM officially announced the new Hummer EV on Thursday, but instead of being sold under a reborn brand, it'll be part of GMC's lineup. The GMC Hummer EV (yes, that's the real name) will be revealed on May 20, following an initial tease in a 30-second Super Bowl ad spot.

Ahead of its big debut, the Hummer EV is already throwing down some impressive numbers. According to a statement, GMC says the electric pickup truck will produce 1,000 horsepower and 11,500 pound-feet of torque and be able to accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in 3 seconds.

Real quick, though, a word about that torque number. We believe GMC is referring to axle torque, or wheel torque, which is different from the power being produced from the electric motors themselves. We recently experienced this disparity when BMW let us test an electric prototype that it described as having 7,357 lb-ft of torque, but in the terms we're familiar with was making 848 lb-ft. ... Yes, the 11,500 lb-ft number is technically correct from an engineering standpoint, but it's not the measurement most commonly used. A GMC official told Roadshow the final, SAE-certified number will be released closer to the truck's on-sale date.

[Zaxxon]

Ha, nice link text.

[Kraken]

Are electricity guzzlers a thing?

[Zaxxon]

I'm attending the Fully Charged Live convention this weekend. Got to see the Rivians as well as the Taycan, but a highlight was getting to see and sit in one of the few remaining GM EV1 vehicles.

Also felt a little weird to see virtually all prominent EV YouTubers together IRL.

[infinitelurker]

Up just under 20% today to close at $780.

[Zaxxon]

It's insane. I can't imagine the margin calls being prepped right now...

[LordMortis]

I may find myself going from 2 shares to 1 share tomorrow.

[Zaxxon]

It's insane. I can't imagine the margin calls being prepped right now...

And there they are...



Yegads.

[LawBeefaroni]

Yeah, looks like the long awaited squeeze is finally on.

I didn't have the stomach to short or go long but I did get some ARKW a whole back as a half-assed long.

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, looks like the long awaited squeeze is finally on.

I didn't have the stomach to short or go long but I did get some ARKW a whole back as a half-assed long.

You could do far worse than getting into ARK.

Now I have to decide whether to continue being strong on the rest of mine, or dumping a bit more in case of a blow-off given this ridiculous run.

[stessier]

ridiculous run.

Shouldn't that be enough to tell you what to do?

[LordMortis]

TD Ameritrade do weird things when I try to sell at market after hours (where it doesn't acknowledge the trade and the price can vary widely), so I don't. I got a call at market open and watched shares drop $40 before I got off the phone. So I put in my first ever limit order, and asked to sell 1 share if it spikes to $900. So I may be $900 richer today... or not.

Are you retired yet?

Ha, no. Ask me again when it's a 4-digit price. Also, it's TSLA so could be $250 again in a few months. It's been a fun few weeks, though.

At the pace of this last week I may be asking again tomorrow.

[Isgrimnur]

TD Ameritrade do weird things when I try to sell at market after hours (where it doesn't acknowledge the trade and the price can vary widely), so I don't. I got a call at market open and watched shares drop $40 before I got off the phone. So I put in my first ever limit order, and asked to sell 1 share if it spikes to $900. So I may be $900 richer today... or not.

Are you retired yet?

Ha, no. Ask me again when it's a 4-digit price. Also, it's TSLA so could be $250 again in a few months. It's been a fun few weeks, though.

At the pace of this last week I may be asking again tomorrow.

[LordMortis]

And filled.

[Zaxxon]

ridiculous run.

Shouldn't that be enough to tell you what to do?

No, not really. There's a real (IMO) chance that this is several thousand $/share in the next decade or so. No guarantee (perhaps not even a high likelihood), but I have to balance locking some more gains in with risk of missing out. I know I'm the lone wolf on this board with that view, but look where we are today. I continue to look closely at the rest of the EV market, and there continues to be literally no one close to Tesla. Further, those with the $$ to try to catch up are also hamstrung by the innovator's dilemma.

Also, that thinking led me to sell some at $540 which was... an historically bad move in my investing career.

At the pace of this last week I may be asking again tomorrow.

Sure keeps the days interesting.

[Isgrimnur]

And filled.

[Zaxxon]

And filled.

Try again.

[coopasonic]

how does > $900 sound... jesus. At $500 I thought I had missed the boat. I guess i should have known it was actually a rocket.

[stessier]

ridiculous run.

Shouldn't that be enough to tell you what to do?

No, not really. There's a real (IMO) chance that this is several thousand $/share in the next decade or so. No guarantee (perhaps not even a high likelihood), but I have to balance locking some more gains in with risk of missing out. I know I'm the lone wolf on this board with that view, but look where we are today. I continue to look closely at the rest of the EV market, and there continues to be literally no one close to Tesla. Further, those with the $$ to try to catch up are also hamstrung by the innovator's dilemma.

Ok, but this rise is based on nothing. The stock will come down before it gets to your future. Sell now and buy back in on the way down.

Edit: Was over 940 for a bit.

[Zaxxon]

Ok, but this rise is based on nothing. The stock will come down before it gets to your future. Sell now and buy back in on the way down.

Perhaps. The market is fickle.

[LordMortis]

how does > $900 sound... jesus. At $500 I thought I had missed the boat. I guess i should have known it was actually a rocket.

At $500 I was feeling like I should both buy and sell having doubled my $1000 in less than six months.

At $900, I'm like 1. 1 share is good. I'll hold on to that last share and hope that I have money "laying around" should a dip ever occur again.

[Zaxxon]

how does > $900 sound... jesus. At $500 I thought I had missed the boat. I guess i should have known it was actually a rocket.

At $500 I was feeling like I should both buy and sell having doubled my $1000 in less than six months.

At $900, I'm like 1. 1 share is good. I'll hold on to that last share and hope that I have money "laying around" should a dip ever occur again.

Statistically it's likely we see a dip, esp given this crazy rise. But to call it based on nothing is to imply not paying attention. The company is fundamentally on much better footing, the Y is in production, in April we'll have a battery presentation that should outline the next several years' improvements, the stock will be added to the S&P 500 sometime this year, forcing a bunch of funds to buy in, Shanghai is up and running, Berlin is being built, etc.

Last year there was still some question as to whether Tesla was here to stay. IMO today that is no longer a question asked by any serious person. It's a far better question to ask which old-guard majors are not here to stay.

[LordMortis]

Statistically it's likely we see a dip, esp given this crazy rise. But to call it based on nothing is to imply not paying attention. The company is fundamentally on much better footing, the Y is in production, in April we'll have a battery presentation that should outline the next several years' improvements, the stock will be added to the S&P 500 sometime this year, forcing a bunch of funds to buy in, Shanghai is up and running, Berlin is being built, etc.

Last year there was still some question as to whether Tesla was here to stay. IMO today that is no longer a question asked by any serious person. It's a far better question to ask which old-guard majors are not here to stay.

I can't see how It won't eventually bitcoin. By how much and when? I got nothing. The company isn't going anywhere but the idea that is has a over 1.5 trillion in value for what it might be doing in a few years, that's a hard sell. At $220 a share I figured they were solvent, have IP, and have an income based on selling of their lack of carbon footprint. At $900 a share I don't see the path. You may call that based on nothing. ND said my call to buy is based on nothing. If you're both right, I gambled and won, I guess. It makes up for some of learning curve.

The old guard is a more interesting question to me. There is a lot of PooPooing about EV never taking more than 10%-30% (at the high high ceiling) market share but one has to ask themselves how long did it take the 35MM camera to disappear? And then how long did it take the camera to disappear all together? I'm not gonna say the industry is wrong (I have no insight) but I'm going to say not considering total "disruption" within a short period of time (20 years? Less?) as a very real possibility is not considering that you might not be hear to stay.

[Zaxxon]

Disruption is always slower than you expect until it's faster than you can believe.

I totally agree that my vision of where it could go may never come to fruition, or may take decades. But I 'saw' Amazon's potential but didn't buy in and hold, and I 'saw' Netflix's potential but didn't buy in and hold. I'm trying very hard not to make the same mistake a third time.

Both of those cases were also extremely poo-pooed because 'of course' the incumbents could easily catch up and/or smash them.

Designing a fantastic EV has very little in common with the skillsets of the old-guard majors. They already outsource virtually everything but the powertrain, and that powertrain is now a stranded asset. ICE engine designers are not motor/battery designers. Even today all the EVs coming to market are woefully inferior to Tesla's powertrain on an efficiency/kWh/weight basis, largely because no one but Tesla (and Rivian, who I will give credit once they are actually producing in volume) actually owns the whole system rather than outsourcing it.

Add to this that all traditional automakers have to maintain a balance of slowly ramping up their loss-leading EV programs while not cooking the golden goose ICE programs so as to stay in business long enough to transition, all while the penalty for not having sufficient EVs sold continues to rise. And while people who actually pay attention to the products realize they'd be nuts to buy an EV that's not a Tesla, in most cases, at present.

Again, just to reiterate: I totally agree that my vision of where it could go may never come to fruition, or may take decades. I also agree that my situation, where I've already sold to cover my costs and am basically riding the remainder of my position on house money, is not typical. But I'm extremely gun-shy to sell out and wait for the dip. Almost did that in 2013 after the rise from $30 to mid-$100s, and that dip never came.

[Isgrimnur]

And filled.

Try again.

High 940.13

[LordMortis]

I totally agree that my vision of where it could go may never come to fruition, or may take decades. But I 'saw' Amazon's potential but didn't buy in and hold, and I 'saw' Netflix's potential but didn't buy in and hold. I'm trying very hard not to make the same mistake a third time.

I saw Amazon's potential when I was making $18,000 a year before taxes and 60%+ of that was paying rent and then there was school debt and auto insurance and gas oh and food... I saw MS potential, when I was still under my parents roof so I could take on less school debt... Netflix being buyable happened about the time I came up with a downpayment for a house.

Designing a fantastic EV has very little in common with the skillsets of the old-guard majors. They already outsource virtually everything but the powertrain, and that powertrain is now a stranded asset. ICE engine designers are not motor/battery designers.

GM, in particular, are having a very hard time reconciling this reality. Hence the strike and the employees that still don't get the volume of parts (and therefore people) required to make an EV vs making an ICE.

Even today all the EVs coming to market are woefully inferior to Tesla's powertrain on an efficiency/kWh/weight basis, largely because no one but Tesla (and Rivian, who I will give credit once they are actually producing in volume) actually owns the whole system rather than outsourcing it.

I think Rivian are getting close, and yet my Ford stock keeps losing value year after year.

Add to this that all traditional automakers have to maintain a balance of slowly ramping up their loss-leading EV programs while not cooking the golden goose ICE programs so as to stay in business long enough to transition, all while the penalty for not having sufficient EVs sold continues to rise. And while people who actually pay attention to the products realize they'd be nuts to buy an EV that's not a Tesla, in most cases, at present.

That I don't buy. It seems like plants and tooling are modifying on about a five year or less basis right now. What they can do on paper and what they are willing to do in order to ... disrupt... what they have are different. I don't hate the unions but the real problem is volume of people employed and shifting the model that accounts for them. Tesla does not have a baggage of being been part the largest pool of employees into the 90s.

[raydude]

Whenever I ask myself the question "Is it time to sell?" I come back with "Do you not believe in the company anymore?" and "What other company would you buy with the profits?" That comeback has kept me holding Amazon, Google, and Microsoft for many long years and still does. If the answer is "I don't know" then it's time to reevaluate what made you buy the stock in the first place.

Full disclosure, I did some research on Tesla back in Jan 14 and bought in at $500. I still believe in the company.

[Zaxxon]

I think Rivian are getting close, and yet my Ford stock keeps losing value year after year.

To be clear, I'm a big fan of Rivian. Would not be surprised to see Rivian and Tesla be the market leaders 5 or 10 years from now. I just will wait until they're producing at least tens of thousands of cars/year before jumping on that bandwagon. Scaringe has his head on straight, though, and has Bezos on his side. I'm sure not going to downplay their chance of success.

Add to this that all traditional automakers have to maintain a balance of slowly ramping up their loss-leading EV programs while not cooking the golden goose ICE programs so as to stay in business long enough to transition, all while the penalty for not having sufficient EVs sold continues to rise. And while people who actually pay attention to the products realize they'd be nuts to buy an EV that's not a Tesla, in most cases, at present.

That I don't buy. It seems like plants and tooling are modifying on about a five year or less basis right now. What they can do on paper and what they are willing to do in order to ... disrupt... what they have are different. I don't hate the unions but the real problem is volume of people employed and shifting the model that accounts for them. Tesla does not have a baggage of being been part the largest pool of employees into the 90s.

Buy it. I'm actually far under-selling the difficulty there. There's also the traditional dealership network, which largely has no interest in selling EVs since dealers make the outsized majority of their profits from service, something that will shrink considerably with an EV vs an ICE vehicle.

The manufacturers have to determine how to keep the dealers happy, while producing EVs that will sell without making all their customers want those EVs rather than their ICE vehicles, until they reach the point where they can mothball the ICE manufacturing (by having sufficient supply of profitable EVs to replace them with.)

[Zaxxon]

Whenever I ask myself the question "Is it time to sell?" I come back with "Do you not believe in the company anymore?" and "What other company would you buy with the profits?" That comeback has kept me holding Amazon, Google, and Microsoft for many long years and still does. If the answer is "I don't know" then it's time to reevaluate what made you buy the stock in the first place.

Full disclosure, I did some research on Tesla back in Jan 14 and bought in at $500. I still believe in the company.

[Zaxxon]

Since I knock the other charging networks often, I'll share this interview with Wayne Killen, one of the bigwigs at Electrify America (the entity created out of Dieselgate money). I got to meet Wayne this past weekend at the conference I attended, and he seems to 'get' what's needed for a compelling network.

EA is starting to turn into something useful for a lot of longer trips, and they're only finishing up their 2nd of 4 grants of VW money. I still don't think they're anywhere nearly as convenient or simple as the Supercharger network, but they've advanced to the point where I'd like to get a CCS adapter at some point to have EA as a 2ndary option for road-tripping.

[LordMortis]

And filled.

Try again.

High 940.13

52-Wk Range
176.99 - 965.00

60% in a week. NUTS N V T S NUTS.

[Zaxxon]

Agreed. I finally sold another call today, this time for an $1150 strike by Friday, cause this shit is bananas regardless of my thoughts on the eventual value of the company.

[LordMortis]

Agreed. I finally sold another call today, this time for an $1150 strike by Friday, cause this shit is bananas regardless of my thoughts on the eventual value of the company.

:envy: I'd find it hard to fathom making that kind of money and feeling like you've left money on the table or have betrayed your belief in the company. Unless you planned to give your non dividend generating shares to your children as a bauble.

If they don't strike how much do you make just for putting it out there?

[Zaxxon]

$1200 and change. This day has been crazy. That option alone has gone from around $500 to $2500+. I also turned around and bought a lotto ticket call for the same expiration with a small fraction of those proceeds just in case we have another margin-call run in the morning.

We just had an $80+ drop in minutes and the stock is still up $100 for the day. OMGWTFBBQ.

[LordMortis]

We just had an $80+ drop in minutes and the stock is still up $100 for the day. OMGWTFBBQ.

Saw that right after you posted.

[Zaxxon]

Did someone mention Rivian?

[LordMortis]

Zax does not get to retire pre-open today. Things have fallen to cataclysmic $820 or so before opening. (I really can't comprehend the money being made and lost on these trades)

Edit: OH and now it's 800 and falling!!!!

[Zaxxon]

Zax does not get to retire pre-open today. Things have fallen to cataclysmic $820 or so before opening. (I really can't comprehend the money being made and lost on these trades)

Edit: OH and now it's 800 and falling!!!!

Selling that call worked out ok.

[LordMortis]

We've dropped to lows not seen since Monday, February 3rd, 2020.