[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Kasey Chang]

Someone started a "CoronaToken"... the more casualties, the more the crypto tokens are worth... maybe.

[LawBeefaroni]

"There's a pandemic in the wild and it's coming to kill us!"
"What should we do???!!!??"
"Go crowded public place, be around tons of strangers, get food there, and bring it all home."
"Perfect!"

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I guess I better start collecting bottle caps.

[Jeff V]

I went shopping today - 5 different stores (2 Asian supermarkets among them), abnormal crowds at none of them. I guess we're still sane here.

[Kraken]

My market day isn't until tomorrow, but the parking lot looked normal-full when I drove past the grocer today. People won't panic until we get a cluster of cases nearby. I'm planning to lay in a modest supply of stuff like pasta and spaghetti sauce, beans and rice, cat food (for the cats, I feel compelled to mention), terlit paper, etc. -- stuff that I'll eventually use even if the zombie apocalypse never comes.

[Blackhawk]

My normal shopping day is tomorrow. I'm not sure what to expect. The town I shop in is about 25% bigger than where I live (so ~5k people), and there is only one store there. That store (a Wal-Mart) is the only full sized grocery store in about 40 miles in any direction. And on the one hand people around here tend to shrug off national emergencies, but on the other a forecast of moderate weather tends to clear the shelves. It'll either be bare or a normal Monday. I'm curious as to which.

[Dogstar]

Heavy traffic -- like pre-snowstorm levels -- at my local grocery store this morning.

[RMC]

Not bad here. I will admit that I picked up double our normal levels of non-perishables in case I want to avoid contact with non family unit contact.

But with three kids, it's not like even double levels will keep us away from stores for long.

[hepcat]

I went shopping today - 5 different stores (2 Asian supermarkets among them), abnormal crowds at none of them. I guess we're still sane here.

No sign of any rushes on the north side of Chicago either.

[Jeff V]

I went shopping today - 5 different stores (2 Asian supermarkets among them), abnormal crowds at none of them. I guess we're still sane here.

No sign of any rushes on the north side of Chicago either.

One of those Asian stores was on the north side (Seafood City on Elston and 94).

[Daehawk]

News says the virus is popping up all over and spreading but that China is the only place that seems to have it under control due to reported numbers. Really? Anyone believes China is telling the truth on any of this? Not me.

[gameoverman]

In my opinion what China has to say about this virus doesn't matter, at all. That's because it's here in the US. We will see first hand what's what. How contagious is it? The death rate? Who is most vulnerable? We will get those answers no matter what China's leaders say.

I just hope my fellow citizens don't embarrass us in front of the world. We are a wealthy nation, loaded with resources, so we are the last country in the world that should have panic due to this. We don't even have large numbers of infected and dead yet. Now is the time for poise and thoughtful actions. I suspect we are going to see The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street happen instead.

[Smoove_B]

Not sure when I'll stop sharing these, but a person in Cook County, IL has tested positive.

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) and Cook County Department of Public Health (CCDPH) said the tests conducted in Illinois resulted in presumptive positives for COVID-19.

The positive test results will have to be confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lab.

[Grifman]

My mom is almost 93 and a high risk. I told her to go to the grocery store this week and stock up, and she bought $150 worth of groceries. If she needs anything perishable I'll get it for her during one of my weekly visits. No need for her to take chance on exposing herself to this.

[Combustible Lemur]

My mom is almost 93 and a high risk. I told her to go to the grocery store this week and stock up, and she bought $150 worth of groceries. If she needs anything perishable I'll get it for her during one of my weekly visits. No need for her to take chance on exposing herself to this.

Make sure to clean the products. Maybe gloves? I don't know really how to do it properly.

Keri and I are almost guaranteed to be exposed to it. School teacher and logistics manager for a food distribution company. And our live in parents are highest risk of fatality 70+ with a variety of health problems. Fortunately we are in the process of moving, so we actually have two houses to quarantine ourselves and them. But supply transfer raises its own challenges I figure wipe the supplies, bag them, then dad can wipe them as he unpacks.

We currently do all shopping, cleaning and 50% of cooking.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[LawBeefaroni]

Not sure when I'll stop sharing these, but a person in Cook County, IL has tested positive.

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) and Cook County Department of Public Health (CCDPH) said the tests conducted in Illinois resulted in presumptive positives for COVID-19.

The positive test results will have to be confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lab.

It's not me.



Yet.

[Daehawk]

I dont think you can really do anything about it. Its like the flu only no vaccine.

[Blackhawk]

But supply transfer raises its own challenges I figure wipe the supplies, bag them, then dad can wipe them as he unpacks.

Thoughts: Wear gloves as you shop, use self checkout, and leave them in the bags. Alternatively, buy a bunch of the items that will last now, stick 'em in a plastic tote (or whatever you call storage boxes), and let them sit a couple of weeks before passing them over.

(This assumes two weeks is enough. I don't think we know that yet.)

[Anonymous Bosch]

I wonder what the public health response is likely to be if/when Covid-19 takes hold amongst the unwashed masses of junkies and vagrants within larger west coast cities (e.g. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle)?

If bodies begin dropping on the streets as a result of their inherently unhealthy and deplorable living conditions, it's liable to get ugly in a serious hurry. What say you, Smoove? What would the appropriate response be?

[Daehawk]

But supply transfer raises its own challenges I figure wipe the supplies, bag them, then dad can wipe them as he unpacks.

Thoughts: Wear gloves as you shop, use self checkout, and leave them in the bags. Alternatively, buy a bunch of the items that will last now, stick 'em in a plastic tote (or whatever you call storage boxes), and let them sit a couple of weeks before passing them over.

(This assumes two weeks is enough. I don't think we know that yet.)

An analysis of 22 earlier studies of similar coronaviruses, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) published online this month in the Journal of Hospital Infection, concluded that human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces for up to nine days at room temperature. However, they can quickly be rendered inactive using common disinfectants, and may also dissipate at higher temperatures, the authors wrote. It is not yet clear, however, whether the new coronavirus behaves in a similar way.

"On copper and steel it’s pretty typical, it’s pretty much about two hours," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday, referring to how long the new coronavirus may be active on those types of materials. "But I will say on other surfaces - cardboard or plastic - it’s longer, and so we are looking at this.”

[Blackhawk]

Nine days for known coronaviruses I knew. Thus the two week suggestion to give a margin of error for the unknown strain.

[Sudy]

Confirmed low-severity case at my local hospital, 2km away. The patient travelled through the local transit hub I use every day on her way back from the airport.

I've not noticed increased activity at my pharmacy or grocery store. I hope it stays that way, as we have neither the money nor the storage space to significantly stock up.

[Kasey Chang]

News says the virus is popping up all over and spreading but that China is the only place that seems to have it under control due to reported numbers. Really? Anyone believes China is telling the truth on any of this? Not me.

Control here is relative. China has it "under control" only in the sense that their new patient rate is about to plateau (i.e slowed down). But that's because they had the vast majority of patients by orders of magnitude.

[Kasey Chang]

Amazon itself had run out of instant noodles, at least those with reasonable price levels. Six packs should cost like 1.50/2.00 (the regular, not the cup). But now the 12 packs are going for like $6-10, and the average is at like 50 cents or even a dollar PER pack.

My dad said to order some. I managed to find some obscure "soy sauce flavor" Maruchen noodles, 24 packs for 5.52. It comes out to about 25 cents a pack. Ordered 4 of them.

OTOH, news says that Amazon went on a purge of bogus corona-virus claim merchandise.

Amazon.com Inc has barred more than 1 million products from sale in recent weeks that had inaccurately claimed to cure or defend against the coronavirus, the company told Reuters on Thursday.

Amazon also removed tens of thousands of deals from merchants that it said attempted to price-gouge customers.

[RMC]

Amazon itself had run out of instant noodles, at least those with reasonable price levels. Six packs should cost like 1.50/2.00 (the regular, not the cup). But now the 12 packs are going for like $6-10, and the average is at like 50 cents or even a dollar PER pack.

My dad said to order some. I managed to find some obscure "soy sauce flavor" Maruchen noodles, 24 packs for 5.52. It comes out to about 25 cents a pack. Ordered 4 of them.

OTOH, news says that Amazon went on a purge of bogus corona-virus claim merchandise.

Amazon.com Inc has barred more than 1 million products from sale in recent weeks that had inaccurately claimed to cure or defend against the coronavirus, the company told Reuters on Thursday.

Amazon also removed tens of thousands of deals from merchants that it said attempted to price-gouge customers.

Yeah, at our local store here in Ohio, there were still tons of instant noodles on the shelf. Same Maruchen brand, Chicken, Beef, and something else. My kids eat Chicken, so bought like 4 12 packs. That is a lot of noodles, but it keeps.

[Smoove_B]

If bodies begin dropping on the streets as a result of their inherently unhealthy and deplorable living conditions, it's liable to get ugly in a serious hurry. What say you, Smoove? What would the appropriate response be?

It's an interesting observation and thought. I can't say I've seen anything specific related to the issue though in planning/tabletops or otherwise formally discussed. That could be because 90% of my experience is in suburban/rural environments, not major metro areas.

At a most basic level, I'm guessing it'll be something that will serve to overwhelm first responders (police/fire/EMT) that are going to need to show up and then get these individuals into treatment centers. My guess is that if there are random people dropping on the streets we're at the point where medical tents and temporary facilities have been set up.

Like everything else now, it's going to be a matter of scale. One homeless person dropping? The system can handle that. A dozen? Problems.

More realistically, next up will be the worried-well that start overwhelming local physicians and then the ER.

[Kraken]

News says the virus is popping up all over and spreading but that China is the only place that seems to have it under control due to reported numbers. Really? Anyone believes China is telling the truth on any of this? Not me.

Control here is relative. China has it "under control" only in the sense that their new patient rate is about to plateau (i.e slowed down). But that's because they had the vast majority of patients by orders of magnitude.

I gotta think Draconian population-control measures help, too. Here, we'll have to rely more on fear and self-interest, both of which we have in abundance.

[Smoove_B]

There's no other nation on the planet that can (or would) respond to an outbreak like China. We're going to run into huge problems here in the U.S. asking for voluntary cooperation, guaranteed.

[Daehawk]

[Kraken]

There's no other nation on the planet that can (or would) respond to an outbreak like China. We're going to run into huge problems here in the U.S. asking for voluntary cooperation, guaranteed.

I'll skirt politics, because we have a thread for that, and just point out that there is a lot of variation among states in terms of medical resources available and attitudes toward authority. I doubt that the Chinese government has to take state autonomy into account.

[Smoove_B]

As the cases on the West coast are being examined, some interesting genomic information has come to light:

Evidence from sequence data that #COVID19 may have been circulating undetected for ~6 weeks in WA, likely missed because of narrow case definition requiring travel to China. A stark reminder that we won’t find early cases if we’re not looking for them.

Probably a bit science/genetics heavy, but here is the scientist on Twitter sharing that observation.

And what they could mean:

An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow.

[Blackhawk]

China doesn't have to worry about a lot of things, like people saying 'no' to their requests.

[Zarathud]

Well....I know where my junk has been. As long as it doesn't contact an unknown entity, I'm likely good.

LOL. Never change, Jeff V.

[Kasey Chang]

A Taiwanese talkshow with some doctor is basically spreading conspiracy about maybe the US "e-cig deaths" were really early COVID cases, and US is not diagnosing the COVID-19 cases, believing them to be the flu.

In fact, the same doctor, probably using the same GISAID charts, came up with the idea that... this takes a little explaining:

There are currently FIVE major types of coronavirus traced to COVID-19, from bat to human to subtypes... Call them A, B, C, D, and E.

Wuhan is primarily type C, and it can be traced phylogenetically to Type B and Type A. And from C spawned D and E (and minor subtypes).

US seems to have all five types. Which to a conspiracy theorist, means US had to be the origin, not China. Never mind the bat origin.

[em2nought]

Filled up my hurricane gas cans, got mom a 23 quart supply of powdered milk, 24 rolls of TP, and some of that Microban stuff. Being near Orlando and with tons of old people, I'm pretty sure it will be coming here.

[Smoove_B]

I'm pretty sure it will be coming here.

Based on what I'm learning in the last 24 hours, I'll be amazed if it's not already there.

[gameoverman]

I wouldn't worry about street addicts. If they aren't dying of the flu in large numbers then they aren't going to die of this virus in large numbers. The addicts who should be worried are smokers, of any age. China has a lot of smokers, and China has a lot of dead corona virus patients. I suspect the two things are related.

Quarantines are worth trying, in case the virus turns out to be hard to transmit. In that case we can limit the spread. If it turns out to be more easy to spread then no quarantine will work. That's because by the time the authorities in the country of origin, China in this case, realize it exists it is already out of the country. It's not like China is some exotic country no one ever sees. They are part of the world economy, and world politics. Even if the infected person is not flying from China to Country X, that person is in the airport spreading the infection and someone traveling to let's say the US brings it with them. They spread it in the US airport, and someone flying to Country X takes it with them. There's no quarantine that'll work against that.

[Jeff V]

Most of these kind of diseases will originate in China or other Asian countries that have extremely high population densities and marginal sanitation. The closer and more continuous contact we have with disease vectors, the greater our odds are of getting it. Just because this virus thrives in China doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be as successful with the lower population density here.

[Kraken]

The grocery store was only average-busy, but many other people were doing the same as I and loading their carts more heavily than usual -- I spent almost double my weekly budget. It's all stuff I'll use eventually so no money was wasted. If we do face closures and quarantines and supply shortages there should be enough warning to load up on more perishable things before the clampdown -- potatoes, onions, cheese, frozen food, etc. And if not, we can live for a couple of weeks on what's on hand. I'm not taking warnings about electricity and water supply interruptions seriously. That might be a risk in remote areas where supplies and services are iffy anyway, but highly unlikely here.

There were some spot stock-outs of things like bottled water, sanitary wipes, and certain cleaning supplies, but for the most part it was like any other Sunday shopping trip.

[gameoverman]

Most of these kind of diseases will originate in China or other Asian countries that have extremely high population densities and marginal sanitation. The closer and more continuous contact we have with disease vectors, the greater our odds are of getting it. Just because this virus thrives in China doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be as successful with the lower population density here.

Not only do I agree with this, I think it has already proven to be the case. Even if the virus hasn't been in the US for six weeks, it's been officially known to be here long enough that I think we'd have seen much larger outbreaks by now. I'm aware that wide scale testing is not being done, but if lots of people had it and were getting really sick from it, wouldn't doctors and hospitals be seeing the results of that in the form of a flood of new patients? That doesn't seem to be happening, which makes me think lots of people have been infected with it but it's not doing much to make them sick, much less kill them.