Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:06 pm

Complicates the playing field, IMHO. Kamala is a strong candidate (she is to me, anyway). I felt Biden was sinking, but if this is true I could see this turning back into a situation where it's Biden / Warren / Sanders each yelling (well, mostly Bernie) they're the best.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:50 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:06 pm Complicates the playing field, IMHO. Kamala is a strong candidate (she is to me, anyway). I felt Biden was sinking, but if this is true I could see this turning back into a situation where it's Biden / Warren / Sanders each yelling (well, mostly Bernie) they're the best.

Well, the polling has been trending back towards Biden lately, at least in some important states. Looks like he's poised to get a win potentially by a significant margin in SC, and he's been getting better polls in especially southern Super Tuesday states. Depending on whether Biden pulls off the SC wins and gets a bounce out of it, he could stabilize as the main non-Sanders candidate.

Warren's still flailing about in 4th or 5th place, though.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:29 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:50 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:06 pm Complicates the playing field, IMHO. Kamala is a strong candidate (she is to me, anyway). I felt Biden was sinking, but if this is true I could see this turning back into a situation where it's Biden / Warren / Sanders each yelling (well, mostly Bernie) they're the best.
Well, the polling has been trending back towards Biden lately, at least in some important states. Looks like he's poised to get a win potentially by a significant margin in SC, and he's been getting better polls in especially southern Super Tuesday states. Depending on whether Biden pulls off the SC wins and gets a bounce out of it, he could stabilize as the main non-Sanders candidate.

Warren's still flailing about in 4th or 5th place, though.

I don't think it counts if he squeaks it out, though. If that SC win isn't by big margins -- like Obama and Hillary big -- I think Biden's still in trouble. Even though I have concerns about Joe, I'd welcome it if he wins big in SC and the moderate vote swings his way. It's the only way we're going to stop Sanders at this point.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:59 pm

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1233468690273841153

"President Bumbling Jerk" is my new favorite nickname for Trump, as given to him by Republicans.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:21 pm

I imagine "Won't Vote For" is a bad thing to have in the top three responses, if you're running for President.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:29 pm

Independents most often word that comes to mind about Warren is liar.

I'm more than a little taken aback. I *do* think she plays a bit loose with TRUTH to fit her agenda but I don't see where she's ever coming across as a liar (short of the 1/64 fiasco she let herself get roped in to.)

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:59 pm

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:29 pm Independents most often word that comes to mind about Warren is liar.

I'm more than a little taken aback. I *do* think she plays a bit loose with TRUTH to fit her agenda but I don't see where she's ever coming across as a liar (short of the 1/64 fiasco she let herself get roped in to.)

It's the result of years of "Fauxcauhauntas" messaging. The core point of that messaging is to communicate that Warren is an ambitious liar.

Still, no one has good responses from independents, Trump including. For Warren, at least two out of three ain't bad.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:50 pm

Oh good, here we go.

https://twitter.com/DavidKlion/status/1 ... 1502108672

If Bernie has a plurality of delegates and votes and superdelegates deny him the nomination, I’m staying home, and I’m sure a lot of other people will too. Party leaders should be aware of this now so they can factor it into their decision.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:08 pm

If you are willing to stay Home because you think Bernie is entitled to the Democratic nomination, you’re not really a Democrat. Especially when the alternative is Trump.

Politics is about building coalitions and winning. If Bernie can’t do that, he shouldn’t be President.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:56 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:06 pm Complicates the playing field, IMHO. Kamala is a strong candidate (she is to me, anyway). I felt Biden was sinking, but if this is true I could see this turning back into a situation where it's Biden / Warren / Sanders each yelling (well, mostly Bernie) they're the best.

You're just repeating yourself. What do you mean by complicating the playing field? She is no longer a candidate, she dropped out.

That said, in the end, it's going to come down to Sanders vs. Biden. Warren, Klobachar, and Buttigieg are not looking good for Super Tuesday and will no longer be viable candidates. Biden will win SC big (probably), and he's going to do well enough to stay in the race on Super Tuesday (he'll win some southern states with large black electorates) and do well enough in the other states (he might even do better if he's seen as the moderate alternative now). Odd man out is Bloomberg. He's running in 3rd place overall on Super Tuesday, but he's not going to catch Sanders. So if Biden is undergoing a resurgence, then the question is does Bloomberg drop out and throw his support to Biden. I think Bernie has a hard cap of 35% to 40%. After Super Tuesday will be interesting - will the moderates coalesce around Biden or will Sanders momentum carry him onward to the nomination?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:04 am

Grifman wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:56 am
Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:06 pm Complicates the playing field, IMHO. Kamala is a strong candidate (she is to me, anyway). I felt Biden was sinking, but if this is true I could see this turning back into a situation where it's Biden / Warren / Sanders each yelling (well, mostly Bernie) they're the best.
You're just repeating yourself. What do you mean by complicating the playing field? She is no longer a candidate, she dropped out.

That said, in the end, it's going to come down to Sanders vs. Biden. Warren, Klobachar, and Buttigieg are not looking good for Super Tuesday and will no longer be viable candidates. Biden will win SC big (probably), and he's going to do well enough to stay in the race on Super Tuesday (he'll win some southern states with large black electorates) and do well enough in the other states (he might even do better if he's seen as the moderate alternative now). Odd man out is Bloomberg. He's running in 3rd place overall on Super Tuesday, but he's not going to catch Sanders. So if Biden is undergoing a resurgence, then the question is does Bloomberg drop out and throw his support to Biden. I think Bernie has a hard cap of 35% to 40%. After Super Tuesday will be interesting - will the moderates coalesce around Biden or will Sanders momentum carry him onward to the nomination?

If Bloomberg's primary goals are to stop Sanders (and thereby stop Trump), if Biden wins big in SC and is surging, then logically Bloomberg should drop out before Super Tuesday. However, human psychology being what it is, I tend to doubt that Bloomberg's going to be willing to call it a day before participating in even a single state primary.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:14 am

I think Warren's positioning for a hail mary shot at a brokered convention, wherein she'd be the least objectionable compromise. She's gotta have a respectable number of delegates for that to work, though. We'll see on Tuesday.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:20 am

Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:14 am I think Warren's positioning for a hail mary shot at a brokered convention, wherein she'd be the least objectionable compromise. She's gotta have a respectable number of delegates for that to work, though. We'll see on Tuesday.

I think so too. Well, that and to be in a position to benefit from an unexpected surge and/or to pick up the progressive pieces if Bernie suddenly collapses (literally or figuratively).

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:53 pm

Zarathud wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:08 pm If you are willing to stay Home because you think Bernie is entitled to the Democratic nomination, you’re not really a Democrat. Especially when the alternative is Trump.

Politics is about building coalitions and winning. If Bernie can’t do that, he shouldn’t be President.

Well, considering Sanders isn’t a Democrat to begin with, is this really any surprise?

Oh, and screw David Klion.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:30 pm

Huh. Thought Bernie was going to turn out those young voters.

https://twitter.com/Larshields/status/1 ... 3169363971

According to CNN only 28% of the voters in today's primary were between 17 and 44. Young voters are just not turning out.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:14 am

You can’t hold the revolution on a Saturday! That was the problem. The youth vote has things to do on the weekend.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:16 pm

They’re too busy working their side hustles.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:10 pm

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/ ... 2292511744

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:10 pm

He can try again in 12 or 20 years and still be younger than all the other candidates. Or try again in 36 years and still be younger than the majority of candidates.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:26 pm

I feel sure we'll see Buttigieg again. He has a future.

I'd really love to see him move somewhere and run for senate. That would be a good way for him to build his influence and keep at the good work.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:46 pm

Holman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:26 pm I feel sure we'll see Buttigieg again. He has a future.

I'd really love to see him move somewhere and run for senate. That would be a good way for him to build his influence and keep at the good work.

Yeah, he made a strong national debut. Now he can leave 'em wanting more, and work on the ol' resume. Maybe he'll even find a prominent home in the next D administration, if the GOP ever allows one.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:47 pm

Good for Pete to know when to drop out. He wasn’t going to be the nominee, and all he would have been doing by remaining after SC would have been to hand it to Sanders.

Now we just need Klobuchar and Bloomberg to follow suit.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:50 pm

That should boost Biden for Tuesday. I wonder if the party officials are having 'talks' with some of the obvious non-competitive candidates.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:56 pm

What happens to his 26 delegates now? Are they unpledged?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:01 pm

Kraken wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:56 pm What happens to his 26 delegates now? Are they unpledged?

I've always heard that the difference between "suspending" your campaign and ending it is that you still have your delegates at the convention. I presume (but don't know) that this means you can direct them as you wish on the first ballot.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:03 pm

Mike "Stop-and-Frisk" Bloomberg made an appearance a black church on the anniversary of Selma's Bloody Sunday.

Some congregants stood and turned their backs on him.

https://twitter.com/juliacarriew/status ... 08736?s=20

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:32 pm

The internet wags are all pointing out that Biden is now the youngest man in the race.

Archinerd · Post by **Archinerd** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:57 pm

Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:14 am You can’t hold the revolution on a Saturday! That was the problem. The youth vote has things to do on the weekend.

I imagine the youngsters aren't going to turn out for the Illinois Primary either, it's on Saint Paddy's Day.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:09 am

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 7110083587

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
4h
Pete Buttigieg is OUT. All of his SuperTuesday votes will go to Sleepy Joe Biden. Great timing. This is the REAL beginning of the Dems taking Bernie out of play - NO NOMINATION, AGAIN!

Trying to play Dems against each other.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:32 am

Shut the fuck up, Donny.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:42 am

He's not wrong.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:43 am

Kraken wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:42 amHe's not wrong.

I mean, the first four words of his tweet are factually accurate. That's not bad for him.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:29 am

Don't shut him up. The people most likely to agree with him hate him the most. Him aping their words in such a blatant manipulation may wake a few of them up.

And, no. He's not wrong. The candidates sharing votes with Biden dropping just before Super Tuesday may very will have been pushed as a strategy to avoid Bernie.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:25 am

He's been OUT for years.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:27 am

I was chatting with a group of friends on Slack a couple of weeks ago about who would win the nomination and that I still thought Biden was going to make a strong run for it because the Democratic establishment was going to do everything in their power to stop Bernie's run. I almost got laughed out of the group for even suggesting that moderates would collapse towards Biden.

Who's laughing now, motherf----ers?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:34 am

YellowKing wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:27 am I was chatting with a group of friends on Slack a couple of weeks ago about who would win the nomination and that I still thought Biden was going to make a strong run for it because the Democratic establishment was going to do everything in their power to stop Bernie's run. I almost got laughed out of the group for even suggesting that moderates would collapse towards Biden.

Who's laughing now, motherf----ers?

I feel like people still tend to attribute powers to the "Democratic Establishment" that far exceed what they are actually capable of. The only real intervention here by the party was Clyburn's endorsement ahead of the SC primary (though notably, Clyburn made sure to wait until after the debate to make sure that Biden didn't fuck anything up). Biden hasn't really cleaned up in 'establishment' endorsements overall, though I think that's improved more recently.

Part of it is that Biden has certain fundamental advantages from being (1) a traditionally credentialed candidate - years in the Senate plus 8 years as VP, plus being a white straight Christian male; and (2) an important role in the Obama administration, which is both widely popular and important to people whose #1 priority is a simple return to sanity.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:25 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:34 am Part of it is that Biden has certain fundamental advantages from being (1) a traditionally credentialed candidate - years in the Senate plus 8 years as VP, plus being a white straight Christian male; and (2) an important role in the Obama administration, which is both widely popular and important to people whose #1 priority is a simple return to sanity.

When you put it that way, it makes it seem so obvious. It's a real shame Biden's performance was seriously lackluster/concerning out of the gate. This thing could have been over by now and the party could have been, instead, focussing on what matters: Trying our best to make sure Trump does not get a second term.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:34 am

I feel like people still tend to attribute powers to the "Democratic Establishment" that far exceed what they are actually capable of.

Not power, influence. The timing of the withdrawals has me wondering if there weren't some discussions behind the scenes of, "At this point you can't win, but if you drop before Super Tuesday instead of after, you may be able to help Biden overcome Sanders, while if you wait, it could sink him."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am

Kurth wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:25 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:34 am Part of it is that Biden has certain fundamental advantages from being (1) a traditionally credentialed candidate - years in the Senate plus 8 years as VP, plus being a white straight Christian male; and (2) an important role in the Obama administration, which is both widely popular and important to people whose #1 priority is a simple return to sanity.
When you put it that way, it makes it seem so obvious. It's a real shame Biden's performance was seriously lackluster/concerning out of the gate. This thing could have been over by now and the party could have been, instead, focussing on what matters: Trying our best to make sure Trump does not get a second term.

I agree generally. I fear however that a return to normality is impossible and the assumption that a centrist has the easiest time is unproven. They all are beating Trump in the general polls. If we need a realist who can defeat Trump then Biden is the wrong choice. Same problem goes for Sanders.

That factored in, this is a real mess. I'm still pretty certain that Joe is going to face massive problems and the Democrats are walking into the same trap they did with Hillary. The GOP has laid the groundwork to dirty him up. Another overhanging issue is that Joe has no cash on hand. I'll assume that improves but his campaign will have to scale up quickly while fighting against a better funded foe. There are a ton of risks here.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:45 am

Blackhawk wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:34 am

I feel like people still tend to attribute powers to the "Democratic Establishment" that far exceed what they are actually capable of.
Not power, influence. The timing of the withdrawals has me wondering if there weren't some discussions behind the scenes of, "At this point you can't win, but if you drop before Super Tuesday instead of after, you may be able to help Biden overcome Sanders, while if you wait, it could sink him."

For Pete the message from SC was clear. He can't get black support. Without it he has 0% chance of getting the Democrat nomination. Perhaps he was gently pushed but he focused heavily on getting black support and made no progress. He knew getting out of the way was the right move. Klobuchar is the one who needs to be pushed firmly out of the race.