[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

hitbyambulance wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:27 pm my mother is 68 years old, a liver-transplant recipient and on immunosuppresants. what extra precautions should she take (other than 'never leave the house')?
It's flu season, so whatever precautions a 60+ year old person takes to avoid the flu is what should be done for this virus.

This virus has not been proven to be a permanent yearly visitor, I think only time will tell on that front, but I'm going with the assumption that it is going to be a permanent member of the cold/flu season from here on out. The significance of this being I would not count on avoiding this wave of infections as marking someone 'safe' from it. Those of us who are older, or have older family or friends, should keep that in mind. I know some people think cutting their community off from outside contact for a time will allow them to avoid the virus. If this virus is a one time thing then that might work. But sooner or later the community will have to allow outside contact again and if the virus is a permanent fixture then the price of cutting off contact was for nothing.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:55 pm
Lorini wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm A friend who is a pediatrician believes that corona has been around a lot longer (even here in the states) than realized.
Image
But there are a bunch of Coronaviruses we knew about. That's just a generic code for something not immediately classified. Right?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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One of my friend's friend invested $7k in a company thats working on a vaccine and has made $200k
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

Kasey Chang wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:
But there are a bunch of Coronaviruses we knew about. That's just a generic code for something not immediately classified. Right?
Yes
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

Daehawk wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:32 pm One of my friend's friend invested $7k in a company thats working on a vaccine and has made $200k
On paper only. it's not real $$$$ unless it's in his bank.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Alex Trebek sounded sick tonight. Like a mucus throat.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:02 pm
Kasey Chang wrote:
But there are a bunch of Coronaviruses we knew about. That's just a generic code for something not immediately classified. Right?
Yes
Yes but no. "Unspecified" in that case refers to site of infection.

Mentioned here.
Diagnosis code B34.2, Coronavirus infection, unspecified, would in generally not be appropriate
for the COVID-19, because the cases have universally been respiratory in nature, so the site would not
be “unspecified.”
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Victoria Raverna »

Watched Stephen Colbert earlier today and he claimed US tested fewer than 500 people for the coronavirus? Really?

A few days ago I found out Indonesia only tested less than 150 people for the virus back when Indonesia claimed to be free of the virus. Now that doesn't seem so bad when compare to US's less than 500.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Paingod »

Super excited to hear that a dude in NH who was a known carrier decided to ignore the "Isolate yourself" memo and went to an event where he infected others. That puts it just one state away from us.

I know travel makes this easy to spread rapidly, but I was hoping it might take longer to hit New England. WTF is wrong with people? Dude knew he had it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Some interesting info here about the genomic evolution of the virus. As you would expect, the evidence points to the virus in Seattle has a direct descendant of the virus from Wuhan, albeit with a few mutations. They also estimate with 90% confidence that there are between 500 to 1500 active cases in the US.

I wonder if the mutations make the virus less lethal. The lethality is the virus was much higher in Wuhan than it has been in any place outside of Wuhan. I guess it remains to be seen if that it due to worse care in Wuhan, people not getting care early when they didn’t know what they had, or changed to the virus’ genome. You often would expect novel viruses to evolve to become less lethal as that often increases transmission.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Lorini »

The thing is I don’t know that the care here is going to be better. Sure if you have health insurance that’s great. But what happens when it hits the homeless population and poor people ? It’s going to be insane. There’s 151,000 homeless people in California alone and they have no place to quarantine. That’s when it will be a pandemic.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Lorini wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:26 am The thing is I don’t know that the care here is going to be better. Sure if you have health insurance that’s great. But what happens when it hits the homeless population and poor people ? It’s going to be insane. There’s 151,000 homeless people in California alone and they have no place to quarantine. That’s when it will be a pandemic.
The homeless will be rounded up and given homes. In some camp in the desert.

No one cares about them now, why would they when they're out of sight, out of mind, and being given food and shelter?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/1 ... 302a/full/
The American Physical Society (APS) March Meeting, the world’s largest annual gathering of physicists, has been canceled due to concerns over the rapid spread of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus. The announcement of the decision to call off the conference in Denver came at 8:00pm MST on 29 February, just 36 hours before the first scientific sessions were scheduled to start on 2 March. The meeting typically draws about 10 000 attendees from multiple continents.
In a Sunday-afternoon press conference, APS chief executive officer Kate Kirby and deputy executive officer and chief operating officer James Taylor said they did not take the decision lightly. They based it on the changing information coming from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Johns Hopkins University, and other relevant websites they had been monitoring, as well as “an abundance of caution that we would not be the cause of spreading this disease further,” Kirby said. She pointed specifically to the CDC’s new warnings about travel to South Korea and Italy, countries from which “a number of” registrants were expected to embark to Denver.

The APS leaders shared factors that they said made the call particularly difficult. For example, Taylor said that the CDC’s advice regarding conferences is more geared toward events with mostly domestic attendees; however, about 30% of March Meeting attendees come from abroad. And a call on Saturday to Colorado’s Department of Public Health and Environment for guidance from an epidemiologist went unreturned, Kirby said.

In the weeks leading up to the meeting, at least 500 registrants had canceled from China alone, Kirby said. Another roughly 300 attendees from both the US and abroad backed out last week. Those cancellations and the resulting changes to the program meant that the meeting would not have been “as vibrant” as in past years, Kirby said, which contributed to the decision.
That can't be good. I mean these aren't the people studying the virus, but they're adjacent to (and in some cases *are*) those guys. It's one thing when manufacturing go in to what seems like over cautious mode. It's another when a subset of the guys running a conference have the brain power and experience to actually, you know, understand the day to day surrounding learning the spread and morbidity at the most basic levels, rather than the MSNBC, BusinessInsider, or federal gubment dissemination we get.

It's a good thing I'm never around people, I guess. :ninja:

For context

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Physical_Society
Biological Physics (DBIO): With over 2,000 members,[11] the division is the second largest learned society in the world devoted to biological physics, following the Biophysical Society. The objective of the division is the advancement and dissemination of knowledge on the broad interface of physics and biology. This includes studying biological phenomena with physics tools and identifying new physics questions within biological contexts. The division supports a program of over 600 (as of 2016) presentations at the annual March Meeting of the APS, on topics ranging from protein biophysics, to neuroscience and evolution. It promotes research and development of biological physics, enhanced the standing of the field, and recognizes important contributions to the field, such as by awarding the Max Delbruck Prize in biological physics.[12]
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Lorini wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:26 am The thing is I don’t know that the care here is going to be better. Sure if you have health insurance that’s great. But what happens when it hits the homeless population and poor people ? It’s going to be insane. There’s 151,000 homeless people in California alone and they have no place to quarantine. That’s when it will be a pandemic.
The working poor are a bigger vector threat -- people who don't get paid sick time, can't afford to take time off, and don't have/can't afford to use health insurance.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Lorini »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:29 am
Lorini wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:26 am The thing is I don’t know that the care here is going to be better. Sure if you have health insurance that’s great. But what happens when it hits the homeless population and poor people ? It’s going to be insane. There’s 151,000 homeless people in California alone and they have no place to quarantine. That’s when it will be a pandemic.
The homeless will be rounded up and given homes. In some camp in the desert.

No one cares about them now, why would they when they're out of sight, out of mind, and being given food and shelter?
So they'll re-open Manzanar :cry: It wouldn't surprise if you are correct.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Paingod wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:25 am Super excited to hear that a dude in NH who was a known carrier decided to ignore the "Isolate yourself" memo and went to an event where he infected others. That puts it just one state away from us.

I know travel makes this easy to spread rapidly, but I was hoping it might take longer to hit New England. WTF is wrong with people? Dude knew he had it.
Too bad you cant arrest and charge morons for that. If I found a person did that and my wife had died from it I would have killed them.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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San Antonio: CDC planned to drop cruise passengers at mall
Federal health officials planned to drop off some cruise ship passengers at a shopping mall after their release from a two-week quarantine at a Texas air base, one of several reasons the city of San Antonio declared a public health emergency over the new coronavirus, a city spokeswoman said Tuesday.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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In China death rate is about 3.7% (2946/80304).

Outside, death rate is about 1.6% (166/10566) but the number is expected to increase, as people are going BACK to test suspected deaths.

New confirmed cases are again, mostly in Korea, Italy, and Iran. Iran seems to be getting the newest cases... 523 in a day, bringing total to 1501... 50% growth is a panic-inducing number.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Kasey Chang wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:17 pm Iran seems to be getting the newest cases... 523 in a day, bringing total to 1501... 50% growth is a panic-inducing number.
They're not handling things well. Burning down a hospital is counter-productive in a time like this. I expect to see Iran spiral out of control if that's the common response to it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:29 am The homeless will be rounded up and given homes. In some camp in the desert.

No one cares about them now, why would they when they're out of sight, out of mind, and being given food and shelter?
Lol... obviously if we had the resources to feed and house the homeless we would have done it long before now.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Sudy wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:40 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:29 am The homeless will be rounded up and given homes. In some camp in the desert.

No one cares about them now, why would they when they're out of sight, out of mind, and being given food and shelter?
Lol... obviously if we had the resources to feed and house the homeless we would have done it long before now.
The resources? I think you mean the will. We have the resources. We just choose to allocate them elsewhere.

A shambling mass of Covid-19 carriers in areas of downtown may give us the will.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Lorini »

As of 2015 68% of Chinese men smoked, vs 14% of Americans who smoke. You can see the problem right there, Chinese men would certainly be expected to die at higher rates than Americans.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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The states are just getting started with testing this week and next, so one wonders if we will soon see a massive spike in confirmed cases.
In fact, in the four days since Colorado announced the expanded testing capability, the state lab said they have only performed 23 tests. The number represents less than 4% of capacity.[/QUOTE ]

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Paingod wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:28 pm
Kasey Chang wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:17 pm Iran seems to be getting the newest cases... 523 in a day, bringing total to 1501... 50% growth is a panic-inducing number.
They're not handling things well. Burning down a hospital is counter-productive in a time like this. I expect to see Iran spiral out of control if that's the common response to it.
It's a clinic, rumored to have ten patients transported from Qom. Obviously, denied by the authorities.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Lorini wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:26 am The thing is I don’t know that the care here is going to be better. Sure if you have health insurance that’s great. But what happens when it hits the homeless population and poor people ? It’s going to be insane. There’s 151,000 homeless people in California alone and they have no place to quarantine. That’s when it will be a pandemic.
The homeless are equally exposed to the flu, yet how much damage does the flu do to the homeless population? I expect this virus to be the same with them. So far, from what I read, there are certain health problems that make people more vulnerable. Homeless people in general won't necessarily always have these health problems.

If you're worried about them spreading it to mainstream people, that's much much likelier to happen with with people who have a place to live, but work for low wages. There were times in my past when I simply could not afford to take a day off since days off weren't paid where I worked. So no matter how sick I was, I went to work. My co-workers did the same. As you go about your day count how many people you are in close proximity to and who you think might not be able to afford to take a day off. That'll give you an idea of the risk factor you have without counting the homeless population factored in. The US is a fast food nation, that alone is going to be a major source of transmission. Everyone in the drive thru is going to get their food plus a Corona...just not the fun one.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

The Northern California cases are popping up fast. One in Berkeley (Alameda County, to the east), and many more in Santa Clara County (to the south). There are unconfirmed reports in Marin County (to the north) and San Mateo County (to the south) fearing community exposure. So sooner or later there will be confirmed cases in San Francisco.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

gameoverman wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:00 pm
Lorini wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:26 am The thing is I don’t know that the care here is going to be better. Sure if you have health insurance that’s great. But what happens when it hits the homeless population and poor people ? It’s going to be insane. There’s 151,000 homeless people in California alone and they have no place to quarantine. That’s when it will be a pandemic.
The homeless are equally exposed to the flu, yet how much damage does the flu do to the homeless population? I expect this virus to be the same with them. So far, from what I read, there are certain health problems that make people more vulnerable. Homeless people in general won't necessarily always have these health problems.
The flu is far worse for the homeless. The homeless population has an increased incidence of exacerbating health problems and they are more likely to go untreated.


Easy version:
For the general population, the flu represents a serious health concern. But for the homeless — who deal with higher rates of chronic illness, fewer resources and crowded conditions in shelters — catching the flu can be a matter of life or death.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Enough wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:21 pm The states are just getting started with testing this week and next, so one wonders if we will soon see a massive spike in confirmed cases.
In fact, in the four days since Colorado announced the expanded testing capability, the state lab said they have only performed 23 tests. The number represents less than 4% of capacity.[/QUOTE ]

https://www.9news.com/mobile/article/ne ... b7697fb3de

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The PUI criteria has been pretty narrow. If/as it expands we will see more testing.


Edit: PUI - patient under investigation. If someone meets PUI criteria then they get tested.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:25 pmThe flu is far worse for the homeless. The homeless population has an increased incidence of exacerbating health problems and they are more likely to go untreated.


Easy version:
For the general population, the flu represents a serious health concern. But for the homeless — who deal with higher rates of chronic illness, fewer resources and crowded conditions in shelters — catching the flu can be a matter of life or death.
I'm not saying they have it good, I was saying that where a specific type of virus is concerned, this corona virus, we already can estimate how it's going to affect them because it'll be about the same as the flu. I'm not saying they don't have health problems, I'm saying it remains to be seen if the types of health problems they have will make this virus more deadly to them.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Lorini »

gameoverman wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:20 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:25 pmThe flu is far worse for the homeless. The homeless population has an increased incidence of exacerbating health problems and they are more likely to go untreated.


Easy version:
For the general population, the flu represents a serious health concern. But for the homeless — who deal with higher rates of chronic illness, fewer resources and crowded conditions in shelters — catching the flu can be a matter of life or death.
I'm not saying they have it good, I was saying that where a specific type of virus is concerned, this corona virus, we already can estimate how it's going to affect them because it'll be about the same as the flu. I'm not saying they don't have health problems, I'm saying it remains to be seen if the types of health problems they have will make this virus more deadly to them.
We already know that deaths attributed to the seasonal flu are about.1%. So far deaths attributed to the coronavirus are at 3.4%. So why do you think it'll be the same?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by RMC »

Lorini wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:53 pm
gameoverman wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:20 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:25 pmThe flu is far worse for the homeless. The homeless population has an increased incidence of exacerbating health problems and they are more likely to go untreated.


Easy version:
For the general population, the flu represents a serious health concern. But for the homeless — who deal with higher rates of chronic illness, fewer resources and crowded conditions in shelters — catching the flu can be a matter of life or death.
I'm not saying they have it good, I was saying that where a specific type of virus is concerned, this corona virus, we already can estimate how it's going to affect them because it'll be about the same as the flu. I'm not saying they don't have health problems, I'm saying it remains to be seen if the types of health problems they have will make this virus more deadly to them.
We already know that deaths attributed to the seasonal flu are about.1%. So far deaths attributed to the coronavirus are at 3.4%. So why do you think it'll be the same?
I think people are worried that the reported cases, so the N, is wrong. Therfore the percentage of deaths in relations to the total that have had it are wrong. But there is so little solid data out there, that it is really a crap shoot on where we are at with this. More people will catch this, in my opinion, since it seems to be easily spread. I know I am isolating my older relatives if they will listen to me, and can do it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by AWS260 »

This is a good tweet thread (you might have to click the date to get the full thread, because Twitter):

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871575796645890
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Archinerd
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Archinerd »

Fuck it, I can't take it anymore. I'm touching my face.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Tennessee has created a coronavirus task force. My guess is they station workers at public restrooms that stare at you sternly until you wash your hands.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Six new cases in Los Angeles county now. As far as 3% vs 1%, that 3 number is based on what we know, which is not a lot. Plus, it's heavily biased to China's patients. And it seems heavily biased towards elderly patients.

This is why I keep pointing out that we don't have large scale deaths happening in countries more like the US. It is entirely possible that when this is over and done, the US number will be less than 1%. Believe me, I would be singing a different tune if we had a few hundred dead of this by now.

We were talking about the homeless, has anyone considered that this virus might have been spreading through various communities, including homeless communities, for a while? It's not like we are testing everyone. I could be infected right now and not even know it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Remember the hantavirus? I think thats the one from the 1990s that popped up and scared me the most before we knew how you got it and such.

Oh I just realized my pet wild rat likes to french kiss. Its like "Surprise! french rat kiss!" Uh oh.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Lorini »

gameoverman wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:26 pm Six new cases in Los Angeles county now. As far as 3% vs 1%, that 3 number is based on what we know, which is not a lot. Plus, it's heavily biased to China's patients. And it seems heavily biased towards elderly patients.

This is why I keep pointing out that we don't have large scale deaths happening in countries more like the US. It is entirely possible that when this is over and done, the US number will be less than 1%. Believe me, I would be singing a different tune if we had a few hundred dead of this by now.

We were talking about the homeless, has anyone considered that this virus might have been spreading through various communities, including homeless communities, for a while? It's not like we are testing everyone. I could be infected right now and not even know it.
Yes this is what my friend who is a pediatrician believes as I noted up thread. She keeps me posted on what she's being told as a doctor (not every word but in general). What you are saying is that actual death rate may be lower and more in line with the seasonal flu. What she told me today is that it appears as if it will be higher, but unlike the seasonal flu which does kill throughout all age groups, no one under 30 has died from it yet and they don't know why. Thus you'll always see a bias toward elderly patients. The average homeless person in LA is 40 which is an age group that would be included in potential corona deaths. Also from 40% to 77% (USC is not sure) don't take the public benefits they are entitled to and that could include Medicaid, the state government health care insurance for the poor.

I do hope they focus on a way to help those who are homeless deal with this if it hits their population en masse. Quarentine will not help them and I'm skeptical it'll help anybody (see moron in above comment).
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

The numbers I've seen show the big jumps in mortality start at 50+. It goes from something like .4 to 1.xx when you go from 40-49 to 50-59.

If I was in charge I'm not sure what I'd do regarding testing. If I ordered massive testing, assuming we had the capability, then what happens if we got results showing widespread presence of the virus in all sample groups? Everyone is going to demand treatment ASAP. If we don't know that people have it they won't bother us about wanting treatment. In a way it's almost an incentive to not test people, to drag our feet on testing, since we couldn't suddenly offer corona virus treatment for a million people this week even if we wanted to do so. I suppose we could test people and just not tell them the results, but if it got out that we knew all along who was infected and didn't even tell them, the public might not respond well to that.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

Iran had to be in total panic now. Their confirmed cases just DOUBLED again to 2922 (up from 1510 yesterday).

Back in the US, Santa Clara County now reports 14 confirmed cases. That's pretty darn close.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by AWS260 »

Archinerd wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:28 pm Fuck it, I can't take it anymore. I'm touching my face.
To hell with all this, I'm touching your face too.
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