[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Daehawk]

Iran had to be in total panic now. Their confirmed cases just DOUBLED again to 2922 (up from 1510 yesterday).

Back in the US, Santa Clara County now reports 14 confirmed cases. That's pretty darn close.

Iran to temporarily free 54,000 prisoners as coronavirus spreads

[morlac]

Six new cases in Los Angeles county now. As far as 3% vs 1%, that 3 number is based on what we know, which is not a lot. Plus, it's heavily biased to China's patients. And it seems heavily biased towards elderly patients.

This is why I keep pointing out that we don't have large scale deaths happening in countries more like the US. It is entirely possible that when this is over and done, the US number will be less than 1%. Believe me, I would be singing a different tune if we had a few hundred dead of this by now.

We were talking about the homeless, has anyone considered that this virus might have been spreading through various communities, including homeless communities, for a while? It's not like we are testing everyone. I could be infected right now and not even know it.

I guess it would depend on how many homeless traveled recently from China, Iran or Italy?

[Isgrimnur]

Presumptive case near Houston.

[Archinerd]

Fuck it, I can't take it anymore. I'm touching my face.

To hell with all this, I'm touching your face too.

Helen Keller cosplay.

[gameoverman]

I guess it would depend on how many homeless traveled recently from China, Iran or Italy?

I'm not willing to assume anyone who has it traveled to China or is in close contact with someone else who traveled to China. I think there's enough evidence that this thing is passed from person to person fairly easy. So someone flies into LA and from the airport to the airport lounge to the taxi/Uber ride, to wherever, this thing is spread. It's not long before everyone from the homeless to the mega wealthy in their gated communities are exposed to it. If it's hard to transmit how did it get all around the world inside two months?

[Daehawk]

Fuck it, I can't take it anymore. I'm touching my face.

To hell with all this, I'm touching your face too.

Helen Keller cosplay.

Safe word is: Virus

[Smoove_B]

NJ has first presumptive case. This was expected. Now the fun in NJ begins.

[Madmarcus]

Italy and Korea are interesting cases. Italy has a very high mortality rate. Probably because of unidentified cases but it still gives a good idea on how well the virus can be contained in a Western style country. Meanwhile Korea has been all in on the testing front so they have identified tons of cases but have relatively few deaths.

Iran, on the other hand, is just scary.

[Kasey Chang]

Now San Francisco starts to panic. Apparently someone on a Mexican cruise, that departed from San Francisco, caught COVID-19, and nobody knows exactly where, could be Mexico, could be on the ship. The ship came back and everyone got off. The guy died in Roseville (near Sacramento) hospital and that caused our Governor to declare state of emergency. It's believed that the deceased may have exposed people while on the cruise. And the liner, which left on another trip, was ordered to turn back. Some crew and passengers are showing flu-like symptoms, but unless they get tested for COVID-19, no one is sure yet.

On the other hand, Citigroup in downtown SF apparently sent all employees home today and yesterday because they suspected two of their employees "may" have came into contact with someone who's infected. But now Citigroup is backpedaling, claiming false alarm and abundance of caution, but a cleaning crew was tasked to disinfect the entire floor.

[Smoove_B]

It's believed that the deceased may have exposed people while on the cruise.

Better than this season of the Walking Dead. There, I said it.

[gilraen]

If it's hard to transmit how did it get all around the world inside two months?

Who said it was hard to transmit? COVID-19 is estimated to have the r0 (reproductive number) of ~2.28. That's double of seasonal flu.

[Kasey Chang]

Who came up with 2915 for Iran? WHO numbers say 2336 (835 new). Still, 33% gain is panic-inducing, but not as much as 100%...

Korean and Italy are holding new cases at about 500 a day. US, due to 44 new cases, now shows 108 (with 6 deaths)

[Kurth]

My cruise -- 3/20 through 3/25 on DCL from San Diego to Cabo and back -- is looking less and less likely. Perspective and all, but still. Damn.

[Daehawk]

If it's hard to transmit how did it get all around the world inside two months?

Who said it was hard to transmit? COVID-19 is estimated to have the r0 (reproductive number) of ~2.28. That's double of seasonal flu.

Ya they say its pretty easy to transmit. The neighbor that drove one guy to the hospital has it.

[Victoria Raverna]

If it's hard to transmit how did it get all around the world inside two months?

Who said it was hard to transmit? COVID-19 is estimated to have the r0 (reproductive number) of ~2.28. That's double of seasonal flu.

WHO's Director-General said it is harder to transmit compare to influenza?

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... march-2020

Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.

Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases.

Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all.

The only way to be sure is by looking for COVID-19 antibodies in large numbers of people, and several countries are now doing those studies. This will give us further insight into the extent of infection in populations over time.

WHO has developed protocols on how these studies should be done, and we encourage all countries to do these studies and share their data.

[Daehawk]

Saw this...

Transmission

While both the flu and COVID-19 may be transmitted in similar ways (see the Similarities section above), there is also a possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route, meaning that tiny droplets remaining in the air could cause disease in others even after the ill person is no longer near.

[Daehawk]

Dr Gupta was reading things to do if you quarantine at homw. One was separate yourself from other people and animals. So does this spread to pets and animals? What happened to that one patients dog?

[msduncan]

In some respects our modern times have forgotten techniques used in the past to prevent disease spread.

One of these was the sick room. Sick family members were isolated in the sick room while they recovered. While it wasn’t foolproof it would at least prevent germs from spreading throughout the house.

[Paingod]

Iran, on the other hand, is just scary.

You're probably going to see this pattern repeat anywhere people are uninformed enough that they'll actually attack hospitals instead of asking more to be made.

[RMC]

In some respects our modern times have forgotten techniques used in the past to prevent disease spread.

One of these was the sick room. Sick family members were isolated in the sick room while they recovered. While it wasn’t foolproof it would at least prevent germs from spreading throughout the house.

I wonder if this has more to do with the fact, that if you are at home and sick, that we don't think you are that sick? I mean certainly when you have people that have immuno compromised chronic illnesses, then the family knows. But when you have a child that has a bad cough/fever/etc.. Do we really think that there is any chance of death? I know I don't, hell, we let our 11 and 13 year old climb in bed with us if they don't feel good. No thought to being exposed to anything, we just want to comfort our kids, and if we get sick? Oh well, we will go to the doctors and get treatment.

But..When we start looking at this from a if you are in the danger groups and are exposed to this, there is a chance of death? When have we had anything like that in recent memory in the US? Certainly not something that we would expect treatment in the home? We would expect these peoples to be in a hopsital in todays environment.

Anyway, I think this would be an awesome research paper to write, or at least a great research paper on the evolution of treatment of illnesses in the home. Somebody smarter than me has most likely written that paper, I just don't have access easily to all the educational journals. I could go and ask the Medical Librarian, and she would find a ton for me, but i'll leave her to help the docotrs out.

[gilraen]

The virus is already mutating, with the more deadly strain (the one that caused most deaths in Wuhan early on) is on the decline. Those observations are in agreement with earlier expert theories that the virus will become less deadly as it proliferates, due to natural selection.

[Anonymous Bosch]

If it's hard to transmit how did it get all around the world inside two months?

Who said it was hard to transmit? COVID-19 is estimated to have the r0 (reproductive number) of ~2.28. That's double of seasonal flu.

WHO's Director-General said it is harder to transmit compare to influenza?

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... march-2020

So what? Tedros Adhanom has the credibility of a $9 note after famously naming notorious tyrant Robert Mugabe a WHO "goodwill ambassador":

The announcement stunned the audience. The head of the World Health Organization had just revealed his decision to honor a well-known tyrant, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, by naming him a WHO “goodwill ambassador.”

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the recently appointed WHO chief, may have thought that his speech during a conference in Uruguay last week would pass without notice. Maybe he assumed that his grotesque praise of a man whose actions show how one can single-handedly destroy a country would disappear into the U.N.’s bulging records of outrageous decisions.

Tedros clearly did not expect the reaction that ensued. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he first thought it was a “bad April Fool’s joke.” Ireland’s health minister called the decision “offensive and bizarre.” And an alliance of health organizations, whose members were in the hall in Montevideo when Tedros (as he is known) made the announcement, issued a joint statement saying they were “shocked and deeply concerned.” Even top WHO staff took to Twitter to complain. “Senior WHO staff dumbfounded,” noted one, adding that his colleagues were “greatly concerned” about the impact on WHO’s credibility and funding.

[Exodor]

We have tickets for Emerald City Comic Con next week... in Seattle. 100,000 sweaty nerds packed into a convention center seems like a recipe for fast transmission.

Right now they're planning to go ahead with the show and we're planning to attend but lots of vendors (Dark Horse, DC) have started to pull out.

On the upside the convention floor probably won't be as crowded this year.

[Smoove_B]

Might be more people dressed like Bane and classic Sandman.

[Blackhawk]

I was given an invitation to GenCon this year, which includes a paid downtown hotel room. I'm starting to think it's a good thing that I won't be able to afford it.

/edit for clarity: Good thing so that I won't be disappointed if it gets canceled.

[Smoove_B]

I'd be surprised if this continues uninterrupted into August, but again, no one knows. I'm more or less expecting it to peak here in the U.S. late March / early April, with cases being reported into early May. It'll disappear for the summer and into early Fall and then magically reappear again sometime around November/December. Total guesses on my part, just based on things I know and my general experience - nothing scientific.

[Daehawk]

Isn't Iran a desert and hot? Its doing well there.

Also... A cruise ship that carried a man who died from coronavirus is headed back to California with 2,500 passengers

The fate of 2,500 people headed back to the US remains a mystery as their cruise ship won't be allowed to dock in San Francisco for now.
That's because Grand Princess cruise ship previously carried a passenger who just became the first person to die from coronavirus in California.
The Grand Princess was on a 15-day voyage and was scheduled to return Saturday. But Princess Cruises cut the trip short after news broke Wednesday of the California man's death.
The ship is now near the California coast, but must remain at sea as it awaits coronavirus test kits to be delivered by helicopter.

At least 21 people -- 11 passengers and 10 crew members -- currently on board Princess Cruises' Grand Princess ship have developed symptoms of illness, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said.
Newsom declared a state of emergency and said local health officials are working with their federal counterparts to trace people who had contact with the man who died.

[coopasonic]

Isn't Iran a desert and hot? Its doing well there.

Iran actually has winter too. Tehran and Knoxville are at about the same latitude.

[stessier]

Isn't Iran a desert and hot? Its doing well there.

The temperatures are only a bit warmer than what you have this time of year (40F-60F).

[Daehawk]

Is California cold? The cruise lines? I just dont believe them when they say when its warm it will go away.

[Smoove_B]

Is California cold? The cruise lines? I just dont believe them when they say when its warm it will go away.

Evidence suggests it's never going to go away. Instead, it will be a seasonal illness - with cases surging in the winter months. However, the information I'm reading seems to point to it always being present at low levels (i.e. "endemic") at various places around the world. There will likely be future outbreaks, but nothing like what we're seeing now.

Again, this is why it's so important for us to collectively figure out exactly how it's spreading and which populations are most at risk.

[RMC]

So this is the big conference for Healthcare IT

HIMSS Announces Cancellation of the 2020 Global Health Conference & Exhibition
March 05, 2020
ORLANDO, Fla., March 5, 2020 – Today, following recent reports from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), HIMSS announced it is clearly necessary to cancel the 2020 HIMSS Global Health Conference & Exhibition.
“We recognize all the hard work that so many have put into preparing for their presentations and panels that accompany every HIMSS conference,” said Hal Wolf, president and CEO of HIMSS. “Based on evaluation of evolving circumstances and coordination with an external advisory panel of medical professionals to support evidence-based decision making, it is clear that it would be an unacceptable risk to bring so many thousands of people together in Orlando next week.”
The advisory panel recognized that industry understanding of the potential reach of the virus has changed significantly in the last 24 hours, which has made it impossible to accurately assess risk. Additionally, there are concerns about disproportionate risk to the healthcare system given the unique medical profile of Global Conference attendees and the consequences of potentially displacing healthcare workers during a critical time, as well as stressing the local health systems were there to be an adverse event.
This will be the first time in 58 years the event has been cancelled, but it is now clear that cancellation is unavoidable in order to meet HIMSS’ obligation to protect the health and safety of the global HIMSS community, employees and local residents, as well as for the healthcare providers tasked with keeping our U.S. and global communities healthy.
HIMSS20 exhibitors and attendees will be contacted with further information regarding booth contracts and registrations. Please contact exhibitors@himss.org for immediate booth concerns. Any further updates regarding HIMSS20 will be published on himssconference.org.
Please see the HIMSS20 Cancellation FAQ page for more information.

[Enough]

We're still going ahead with the conference we're hosting next week in Colorado (0 detections) but are on pins and needles. I think the plan is to cancel last minute if the situation changes. It's only people in CO coming but still an incredibly stressful situation, arg.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Smoove_B]

Just wait until college Spring Break hits in the U.S. over the next two weeks. Really - the timing for this could not have been planned more perfectly.

[coopasonic]

Just wait until college Spring Break hits in the U.S. over the next two weeks. Really - the timing for this could not have been planned more perfectly.

Here, I think you dropped this: /s

[LawBeefaroni]

Just wait until college Spring Break hits in the U.S. over the next two weeks. Really - the timing for this could not have been planned more perfectly.

"You'll be fine if you stick to Budweiser."

[Alefroth]

Just had a conference I was attending in NYC in May get 'refocused' to Silicon Valley in Nov.

[Smoove_B]

Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft Tell Seattle Workers To Stay Home.

American companies including IBM, JPMorgan Chase and Apple are restricting travel and canceling big events or turning them into virtual gatherings, as they try to limit their employees' potential exposure to the virus.

The cancellations are a blow to local cities and vendors and threaten to squeeze the travel industry even more. Stocks of airlines, hotels and cruise lines have all fallen sharply in the past few weeks.

[Kasey Chang]

Amazon Prime Now! delivery is still slammed. No free delivery slot until tomorrow evening.

[Kasey Chang]

Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft Tell Seattle Workers To Stay Home.

American companies including IBM, JPMorgan Chase and Apple are restricting travel and canceling big events or turning them into virtual gatherings, as they try to limit their employees' potential exposure to the virus.

The cancellations are a blow to local cities and vendors and threaten to squeeze the travel industry even more. Stocks of airlines, hotels and cruise lines have all fallen sharply in the past few weeks.

For grins, Google and Microsoft just made their team-networking software available for FREE, at least for the next few months, that normally requires a subscription.


https://lifehacker.com/how-to-get-free- ... 1842098433