Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:51 pm

Scraper wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:47 pm This one is pretty easy to debunk. The average seasonal Flu death rate is .1%, so far in the US the Covid 19 death rate is about 10%. Even if you go with the overall world average of about 3% that's still not even remotely comparable to the flu.

The caveat there is that you are comparing an historical average to a developing situation. It may turn out that they are very similar. It may not. It is better to say we just don't know yet but should be cautious.

I think John Oliver said it best this weekend - our level of concern should be somewhere between the guy drinking bleach and the guy licking subway poles because nothing can kill him.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:54 pm

Just got an e-mail that my kids' school is canceling some celebratory dinner next Wednesday. Really not sure how that makes sense, given the minimal Coronavirus presence around here and the fact that the school is still otherwise operating normally. But I wasn't planning on going to the celebration anyway, so...

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:00 pm

They are likely getting advisory messages from county/regional/state health authorities recommending that non-essential social gatherings should be cancelled. I would expect to start seeing this happen, followed with possible school closures depending on location.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:08 pm

Scraper wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:47 pmThis one is pretty easy to debunk. The average seasonal Flu death rate is .1%, so far in the US the Covid 19 death rate is about 10%. Even if you go with the overall world average of about 3% that's still not even remotely comparable to the flu.

People don't believe facts that don't align with their beliefs. I'm finding that out *every damn day* now. It's infuriating.

Fact: China reported something around 14% of people 80+ died.

Response: That probably isn't too far off their expected death rate anyway.

Fact: Actually actuarial tables indicate an annual rate at 6-7%. Far below an acute 14% rate.

Response: Well they should just wash their hands like the flu.

Fact: You're a fucking idiot

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:41 pm

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1235612559228710914

BREAKING: By a 20-point margin, Americans say Trump’s handling of the Coronavirus makes them less likely to vote for him.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:45 pm

Enough wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:08 pm
geezer wrote:Both the wife and I make 100% of our income from large public events. We're so boned.
Oh my goodness, that's yikes!

United Airlines is cutting 10% of its domestic flights and 20% of international, imposing a hiring and wage freeze, and warning that it might do the same thing again in April.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:51 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:54 pm Just got an e-mail that my kids' school is canceling some celebratory dinner next Wednesday. Really not sure how that makes sense, given the minimal Coronavirus presence around here and the fact that the school is still otherwise operating normally. But I wasn't planning on going to the celebration anyway, so...

Next week I have 4 events in 4 nights. An annual meeting (a few hundred doctors, open bar), an education committee meeting (20 people at a house), a board meeting (back room at a bar), and a party (75 people at a rented event space).

Cancellations would be welcome....

hentzau · Post by **hentzau** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:55 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:51 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:54 pm Just got an e-mail that my kids' school is canceling some celebratory dinner next Wednesday. Really not sure how that makes sense, given the minimal Coronavirus presence around here and the fact that the school is still otherwise operating normally. But I wasn't planning on going to the celebration anyway, so...

Next week I have 4 events in 4 nights. An annual meeting (a few hundred doctors, open bar), an education committee meeting (20 people at a house), a board meeting (back room at a bar), and a party (75 people at a rented event space).

Cancellations would be welcome....

I'll put hand sanitizer on the snack table at OctoCon...

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:00 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:41 pm https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1235612559228710914

BREAKING: By a 20-point margin, Americans say Trump’s handling of the Coronavirus makes them less likely to vote for him.

Uh oh, the Vice President’s Coronavirus Task Force better do their job and start cranking out more press releases praising The Leader’s leadership.

Perhaps clips of Trump throwing Chlorox wipes to the crowd would be a start?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:43 pm

hentzau wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:55 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:51 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:54 pm Just got an e-mail that my kids' school is canceling some celebratory dinner next Wednesday. Really not sure how that makes sense, given the minimal Coronavirus presence around here and the fact that the school is still otherwise operating normally. But I wasn't planning on going to the celebration anyway, so...

Next week I have 4 events in 4 nights. An annual meeting (a few hundred doctors, open bar), an education committee meeting (20 people at a house), a board meeting (back room at a bar), and a party (75 people at a rented event space).

Cancellations would be welcome....
I'll put hand sanitizer on the snack table at OctoCon...

No alcohol!

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:50 pm

Azar benched

White House sidelines Azar from coronavirus response

There was a notable omission as Vice President Mike Pence visited Seattle Thursday as part of the Trump administration's coronavirus response: Health Secretary Alex Azar.

The White House on Wednesday also benched Azar from a coronavirus task force press briefing, the latest sign of diminished standing for an official who was the face of the U.S. response just a week ago.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:58 pm

Seattle Times headlines present an increasingly grim tone with each passing day

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:18 pm

Big surprise, Rand Paul, votes "no" on coronavirus aid package

https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1235654716471865344

.@RandPaul explains his no vote, “I support our government’s efforts to fight the coronavirus. We also owe it to the American people to do it in a way that avoids piling billions more in debt on their backs"

Dear Rand Paul,

Go F yourself.

Respectfully,
Smoove_B

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:21 pm

Should have given his neighbor a medal.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:53 pm

https://twitter.com/rationalsquad/statu ... 73415?s=20

Thoughtful conservative suggests killing maybe 200 million people to stabilize trading markets.

(Santelli, BTW, is the guy whose famous rant sparked the Tea Party revolt in 2009.)

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:56 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:53 pm https://twitter.com/rationalsquad/statu ... 73415?s=20

Thoughtful conservative suggests killing maybe 200 million people to stabilize trading markets.

(Santelli, BTW, is the guy whose famous rant sparked the Tea Party revolt in 2009.)

I hate this guy. I *always* mute or flip the channel on CNBC when he starts yapping. He is the Chris Cillizza of financial news.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:57 pm

He's 63. He should take his own advice and intentionally expose himself. That's pretty much unreal.

Also, I'm still trying to process the fact that Azar has seemingly been sidelined. The Secretary of HHS is now sidelined during what is arguably the greatest public health crisis in the last century. On the other hand, he's technically useless so there's no real loss, but in terms of messaging...Wow.

EDIT: Wait until people hear that it's not a 1:1 testing ratio for the kits being shipped by the CDC. NJ was given 500 kits; that means we can test a little over 200 people.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:35 pm

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:01 pm While the Princess Cruise quarantine was a disaster, I think it also provides some relevant data.

1. Of ~3700 passengers, just 690 got sick - that tells me the infection rate is probably a little below 20%.
2. Of those 690, 7 have died. (a little over 1% - estimated rate is 2-3%)
3. Not much data, but what I have read is that one of the biggest issues is the hospitalization rates. Anyone have numbers on those?

Update re: infection rate:

That emerged as authorities have been testing *every single* member of the Shincheonji Church, which has been at the center of a surge in cases.

At one point, *70%* of 600 asymptomatic church members tested positive for the coronavirus.

Ouch.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:34 pm

Tomorrow is going to be amazing:

In ideal circumstances, infectious disease experts tell TIME, the government would also have focused on mobilizing capacity to test for COVID-19 prior to the first reported case on U.S. soil. It would have sent test-kits to hospitals and clinics around the nation to identify any new infections and, armed with that data, officials would have tailored a rapid response, issuing public recommendations on sanitation practices, when to seek medical treatment, and how to limit the spread of the disease.

Instead, public health departments in some parts of the country were blindsided. As experts predicted a month ago, some state coronavirus hotlines and hospitals have been overwhelmed.

The administration's failure to quickly disseminate enough working COVID-19 test-kits has also had lasting repercussions, likely exacerbating the spread of the disease and robbing public health officials of vital data about the spread of the virus.

Starting to see personal accounts from nursing staff in CA being reported online and how they were denied tests by the CDC after treating suspected patients. This is not how you treat front-line medical staff.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:57 pm

"Nearly 17"

https://twitter.com/GovParsonMO/status/ ... 1532782594

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:59 pm

Wow you tested nearly 17 people and you have ZERO confirmed cases? Funny how that works. Good luck Missouri. I mean that sincerely.

GungHo · Post by **GungHo** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:51 pm

Who even says that? 'Nearly 17'? That just screams desperation.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:52 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:18 pm Big surprise, Rand Paul, votes "no" on coronavirus aid package

https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1235654716471865344

.@RandPaul explains his no vote, “I support our government’s efforts to fight the coronavirus. We also owe it to the American people to do it in a way that avoids piling billions more in debt on their backs"
Dear Rand Paul,

Go F yourself.

Respectfully,
Smoove_B

I support our government's effort to fight the coronavirus as long as that effort doesn't involve any compensation for anyone for any thing in any way shape or form. Like I support government sanctioned thoughts and prayers unless you use any paid for physical media to convey them.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:02 pm

Because in capitalism, people work for free. Unlike socialism.

geezer · Post by **geezer** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:04 pm

Enough wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:08 pm
geezer wrote:Both the wife and I make 100% of our income from large public events. We're so boned.
Oh my goodness, that's yikes!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Yeah - it's not awesome, but so far we have 3 jobs this month between us, and we expect at least two of those to still go off as planned. That'll give us time to figure out the best way to deal with it.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:32 pm

NJ gearing up for school closures, "If it gets worse". Oh, it's going to get worse.

he NJEA is worried, however, that students without internet access won’t get an equitable experience learning from home, Baker said.

“We urge districts and the New Jersey Department of Education to do everything in their power to ensure that no students are denied their right to public education because they are unable to access the internet,” he said.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:45 pm

GungHo wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:51 pm Who even says that? 'Nearly 17'? That just screams desperation.

"We were about to test the 17th and they died. Too bad. Luckily it probably *wasn't covid-19."

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:46 pm

Salon

Trump tried to shift criticism over delays in testing for the coronavirus on decisions made under the administration of his predecessor.

"The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we're doing," Trump falsely claimed during a Wednesday briefing with Vice President Mike Pence. "And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more rapid and accurate fashion."

Pence attempted to clarify Trump's comment by falsely claiming that the Obama administration gave the Food and Drug Administration jurisdiction to develop diagnostic tests but Trump is now allowing states to conduct their own tests.

An aide to Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., the chairman of the Senate committee that oversees health issues, told CNN that was untrue. Though the Obama administration proposed giving the FDA more oversight to approve diagnostic tests, Congress never approved it.

Trump, on the other hand, disbanded the team responsible for responding to global health emergencies in 2018.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:50 pm

NJ also putting restrictions on foreign and domestic travel for state workers - including trips to NYC and Washington D.C.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:14 am

GungHo wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:51 pm Who even says that? 'Nearly 17'? That just screams desperation.

"Nearly 17" is 16, right? "Over 15" would scream less desperation.

#COVIDNEARLY20

Dogstar · Post by **Dogstar** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:40 am

I think this gentleman and I have different understandings of what the word "contained" means.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/ ... 08644?s=20

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:46 am

That thing we can't reliably detect. We've definitely contained it. He is either an idiot or a liar. Either way STFU.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:49 am

Dogstar wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:40 am I think this gentleman and I have different understandings of what the word "contained" means.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/ ... 08644?s=20

The administration is straight-up lying about a public-health threat because they think it will calm the stock market.

Let that sink in.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:52 am

Dogstar wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:40 am I think this gentleman and I have different understandings of what the word "contained" means.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/ ... 08644?s=20

It's contained as of right now to the people who currently have it. After it spreads, it will be contained to the people who have it at that point. And so on.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:53 am

As far as we know, there are no cases of Coronavirus off planet. We have successfully contained it to Earth.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:03 pm

I'm sure a reporter with a background in economics knows very bigly about containment - maybe as much as Secretary Azar.

Step 1 of containment: Rapid Identification

Well, that ended quickly. Generally speaking, "containment" is not a term we'd be using in situations like this, but what do I know.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:20 pm

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1 ... 5095945216

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:22 pm

Kudlow and Company was a great show. A great show! Hire him!

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:35 pm

Come on Trump...try man...you can get it...you're not even trying....get it get it get it get it.