Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Jaymann]

More like divisive action.

[Kraken]

The thing is what the Trumptards call overreaction is exactly what stands to save us. The objective of all of these shutdowns and closures is to prevent it from spreading. if it's successful, the idiots will just claim everyone was crying wolf.

I would think we're at the point where we won't be able to be lucky enough to not feel the impact of this, and thus they won't be able to claim it was just crying wolf.... but I've learned never to underestimate their cognitive dissonance ability.

Yesterday Heather Cox Richardson ended her column by pointing out that two radically opposed camps are shouting at one another and drowning out the middle ground. Either this is a plague that could kill a million Americans, or it's media hype and we're mostly going to be fine. When it ends somewhere between those extremes, both sides will be satisfied that they were right.

[Kraken]

I wish Gupta or Oz were our Surgeon general.

Dr. Oz has turned into a quack (not sure if he always was or not).

In 2013 he nearly destroyed Curio City. The Marketing Wizard of Oz explains the setup, if you want to know about that, Cutting My Throat shows me getting cold feet, and In Which I Dodge a Bullet covers the aftermath.

I have strong feelings about Dr. Oz and they aren't warm ones.

[YellowKing]

Having lived in a hurricane-prone area for 4 decades now, this behavior is not surprising. It's not even necessarily political, though Trump's presidency has made "distrust of the media" a right-wing calling card.

Every hurricane, you have two camps of people. Those that take it seriously and prepare or evacuate, and those who feel like it's all overblown hype and people are stupid for freaking out about it.

Invariably, if the hurricane actually turns out to be bad, people are too busy actually surviving to worry about what the "hype" people said. On the other hand, if the hurricane is not as bad as expected, you get endless days of the "hype" people crowing about how right they were. That becomes the loudest story, it reinforces the anti-media bias, and the cycle repeats. Every. Goddamn. Hurricane.

I get it - people don't want to believe bad news. And the right-wing in this country have become experts in gaslighting themselves into believing there is no bad news. And if there is, it's made up by their enemies to destroy them.

My point being - it doesn't matter what for the bad news takes. Coronavirus, climate change, or an impending Category 5. The behavior is the same every time.

[Defiant]

COVID-19: New York Will Be The Next Italy, But Doesn’t Have to Be

Tl;dr:
Analysis strongly suggests that the NYC metro area has 5–10 days to quarantine the city or face dramatically overwhelmed hospitals, extremely high death rates, and a ruined economy.
The outlook for NYC and COVID-19 is bleak. The policy response is far too slow and too weak to meet the needs of the moment.

[Combustible Lemur]

Having lived in a hurricane-prone area for 4 decades now, this behavior is not surprising. It's not even necessarily political, though Trump's presidency has made "distrust of the media" a right-wing calling card.

Every hurricane, you have two camps of people. Those that take it seriously and prepare or evacuate, and those who feel like it's all overblown hype and people are stupid for freaking out about it.

Invariably, if the hurricane actually turns out to be bad, people are too busy actually surviving to worry about what the "hype" people said. On the other hand, if the hurricane is not as bad as expected, you get endless days of the "hype" people crowing about how right they were. That becomes the loudest story, it reinforces the anti-media bias, and the cycle repeats. Every. Goddamn. Hurricane.

I get it - people don't want to believe bad news. And the right-wing in this country have become experts in gaslighting themselves into believing there is no bad news. And if there is, it's made up by their enemies to destroy them.

My point being - it doesn't matter what for the bad news takes. Coronavirus, climate change, or an impending Category 5. The behavior is the same every time.

+1

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[gameoverman]

A local news site has a story about the crowds buying ammo and guns. Some lines are long, so long some people get frustrated and leave so they can look around somewhere else. I thought it was ironic. A Republican is President, with an ongoing and all but unprecedented disruption to society, and now is the time that prepper/survivalists can't get their guns and ammo. It's the opposite of 'all dressed up and no place to go' in that there's finally a place to go but the lines to buy something to wear are endlessly long and by the time you get to the front of one all the clothing is gone.

[Skinypupy]

We’re sooooooooo fucked

https://twitter.com/BrookeGMcDonald/sta ... 2137502720

https://twitter.com/ReidIcculus/status/ ... 73%2FJesus

https://twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status ... 4615618561

[malchior]

When we went out last Tuesday, we got to chatting with our server about business and disease and stuff, and she brought up that meme on her phone -- we've all seen it. I sized her up to decide if she was educable. Decided "nope," glossed it over and changed the subject. Either she'll figure it out herself in the next two weeks, or we'll have dodged the plague and she'll feel validated. Nothing I could've said would've changed that calculus. (Plus I'm not verbally persuasive in the best circumstances.)

This is where I'm at. We have to do best we can do for ourselves. People don't want to learn how much they don't know. They can't be persuaded by reason. They want to believe with the tribe. It'll get people they love killed. I can't help them with that. And in the end they won't learn any lessons.

It has me thinking though. Times were worse long ago, we all have heard about the sacrifices people made in the Depression and WW2-era. We're people really that strong? It is hard to believe because people now are so soft, weak, stupid, short-sighted, and selfish. Our leadership is full of garbage humans and charlatans. What the heck happened to us here in the West?

[Formix]

I think we've had it too good for too long. You get used to things, both good and bad. The WWII folks had lived through the great depression and WWI, or their parents had and taught them what that was like. My parents, what did they have to teach me about hardship? They came of age during the greatest economic boom the world had ever known in the most powerful country the world had ever had. I thought you could have a family of six, a stay at home wife, own 10 acres of land full of toys and animals, never want for anything, all on a body shop manager's salary, because that's how I grew up. I mentioned to my 70 something-year-old mom yesterday (sarcastically) how happy I was to have experienced the recession of 1987, 1991, and 2008 as well as the Spanish Flu 2 Electric Boogaloo. Her response? Well, maybe these millennials will understand now that life isn't all moonbeams. No recognition of how good she has had it her whole life. I know it's a worn out thought at this point, but the Roman Empire parallels strike me as more true every day. We're just decadent.

[malchior]

This polarization is literally going to kill people.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/sta ... 0623465473

[Holman]

I think we've had it too good for too long. You get used to things, both good and bad. The WWII folks had lived through the great depression and WWI, or their parents had and taught them what that was like. My parents, what did they have to teach me about hardship? They came of age during the greatest economic boom the world had ever known in the most powerful country the world had ever had. I thought you could have a family of six, a stay at home wife, own 10 acres of land full of toys and animals, never want for anything, all on a body shop manager's salary, because that's how I grew up. I mentioned to my 70 something-year-old mom yesterday (sarcastically) how happy I was to have experienced the recession of 1987, 1991, and 2008 as well as the Spanish Flu 2 Electric Boogaloo. Her response? Well, maybe these millennials will understand now that life isn't all moonbeams. No recognition of how good she has had it her whole life. I know it's a worn out thought at this point, but the Roman Empire parallels strike me as more true every day. We're just decadent.

I want to push back on this. The fact that people haven't experienced severe hardship doesn't necessarily mean that it'll be impossible for them when it comes. Think about all the people who didn't grow up with your (or my) Boomer parents supplying comfort and security. There are millions of them (from low-working-class families to debt-ridden millennials to immigrants striving like immigrants always have) making life work despite the unfair challenges of a warped economy. They're doing it right now.

The Depression Generation is a highly sanitized myth. We don't know how much they whined and complained, or who cheated their neighbors, or who took advantage of social/legal inequalities to load their own bad luck onto minorities. All of that has been washed out of the story. And the Depression absolutely did not hit everyone equally.

Every generation calls itself decadent. It's one of the great tropes of civilization. It's how we live with progress.

[malchior]

I want to push back on this. The fact that people haven't experienced severe hardship doesn't necessarily mean that it'll be impossible for them when it comes. Think about all the people who didn't grow up with your (or my) Boomer parents supplying comfort and security. There are millions of them (from low-working-class families to debt-ridden millennials to immigrants striving like immigrants always have) making life work despite the unfair challenges of a warped economy. They're doing it right now.

No doubt. Poor people always have struggled. The top is the problem. And there are many incredibly weak people out there who tolerate it and even cheer for it. Our society is deranged.

The Depression Generation is a highly sanitized myth. We don't know how much they whined and complained, or who cheated their neighbors, or who took advantage of social/legal inequalities to load their own bad luck onto minorities. All of that has been washed out of the story. And the Depression absolutely did not hit everyone equally.

It isn't a highly sanitized myth. Read the contemporary accounts of the times. Those times were brutal. Not everyone was affected the same way but it was for many nothing like anything we ever experienced. They literally had food rationing, bread lines, etc. The closest we came to their hardship of that time was 9/11. I'm sure they whined and complained, they also had bad leaders and deep partisanship, but in the end they had strength and at least a class of leaders who believed in shared sacrifice. Compare that to now. Our leaders are mostly take. They've broken the nation to loot it for the rich.

Every generation calls itself decadent. It's one of the great tropes of civilization. It's how we live with progress.

Sure every generation has been called decadent. Sometimes it is true. And there is always the person who wants to say times are the same as they've always been even when evidence is punching us in the face every day. This isn't' normal times. Sometimes we are at the bottom of the barrel. This is isn't how we live with progress. This is the excuse many use to not demand reform and accept the moral and ethical abyss we are seeing every day.

[Holman]

I want to push back on this. The fact that people haven't experienced severe hardship doesn't necessarily mean that it'll be impossible for them when it comes. Think about all the people who didn't grow up with your (or my) Boomer parents supplying comfort and security. There are millions of them (from low-working-class families to debt-ridden millennials to immigrants striving like immigrants always have) making life work despite the unfair challenges of a warped economy. They're doing it right now.

No doubt. Poor people always have struggled. The top is the problem. And there are many incredibly weak people out there who tolerate it and even cheer for it. Our society is deranged.

The Depression Generation is a highly sanitized myth. We don't know how much they whined and complained, or who cheated their neighbors, or who took advantage of social/legal inequalities to load their own bad luck onto minorities. All of that has been washed out of the story. And the Depression absolutely did not hit everyone equally.

It isn't a highly sanitized myth. Read the contemporary accounts of the times. Those times were brutal. Not everyone was affected the same way but it was for many nothing like anything we ever experienced. They literally had food rationing, bread lines, etc. The closest we came to their hardship of that time was 9/11. I'm sure they whined and complained, they also had bad leaders and deep partisanship, but in the end they had strength and at least a class of leaders who believed in shared sacrifice. Compare that to now. Our leaders are mostly take. They've broken the nation to loot it for the rich.

Every generation calls itself decadent. It's one of the great tropes of civilization. It's how we live with progress.

Sure every generation has been called decadent. Sometimes it is true. And there is always the person who wants to say times are the same as they've always been even when evidence is punching us in the face every day. This isn't' normal times. Sometimes we are at the bottom of the barrel. This is isn't how we live with progress. This is the excuse many use to not demand reform and accept the moral and ethical abyss we are seeing every day.

We're talking about two different things.

My comment wasn't to assert that our system is great now; it was pushing back on the notion that our generation(s) are uniquely decadent and weak due to lack of real hardship.

[malchior]

We're talking about two different things.

My comment wasn't to assert that our system is great now; it was pushing back on the notion that our generation(s) are uniquely decadent and weak due to lack of real hardship.

This is where I disagree. Our system isn't great in large part because we are weaker and more decadent. The boomers have a very well documented history of decadence. If older boomers weren't all ok with getting their's would things be the way they are? Of course not. They vote for this state of affairs in large numbers. It doesn't stop there but it is the most obvious and influential factor.

[Defiant]

Ventilator Maker: We Can Ramp Up Production Five-Fold

“We could increase production five-fold in a 90- to 120-day period,” says Chris Kiple, chief executive of Ventec Life Systems, a Bothell, Wash. firm that makes ventilators used in hospitals, homes and ambulances. He’d have to tool up production lines, train assemblers and testers and get parts. Accelerating the parts delivery might be the toughest task, he says.

Kiple estimates that worldwide production capacity is in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 units a year, but some of this output is of machines not suitable for intensive care units.

[Blackhawk]

I had the benefit growing up with secondary exposure to the depression. My father was born during the depression, and my grandmother raised nine kids through it (well, to be honest, I'd guess that last couple were born after, but still...) Those years so impacted her that even in the 1980s she still lived with the habits that she'd developed during those days. I spent a several of my formative years living with her, cooking with her, cleaning with her, and being immersed in how she did things, all while being regaled with stories of 'back then.' That was followed up with the rest of my childhood living with my father, often homeless, in shelters, and so forth. It sucked, but I learned a lot, and I believe that it made me a better person.

The reason people are handling it the way they are now isn't because humanity has gotten weak. We haven't 'evolved' that much in 90 years. It that most of us have never been tested. We've had ~75 years of relatively benign life, and most people today haven't experienced that kind of hardship. It isn't that we're weak, it's that we've never been tested in such a way as to discover our strength. We're selfish because we've never had to rely on our neighbors. We're short sighted because we've always known where our next meal was coming from, and we've always known that, nationally, we were safe. Obviously there are plenty of exceptions, but those are in pockets and not reflected in society as a whole.

It means that we're floundering now, but if we were really, truly tested (as we may still be), people would rediscover that strength. Hell, in the end it might be to our advantage.*

*Not to imply that the virus is good thing, just that some of the long-term effects might be.

[Isgrimnur]

[em2nought]

Ventilator Maker: We Can Ramp Up Production Five-Fold

“We could increase production five-fold in a 90- to 120-day period,” says Chris Kiple, chief executive of Ventec Life Systems, a Bothell, Wash. firm that makes ventilators used in hospitals, homes and ambulances. He’d have to tool up production lines, train assemblers and testers and get parts. Accelerating the parts delivery might be the toughest task, he says.

Kiple estimates that worldwide production capacity is in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 units a year, but some of this output is of machines not suitable for intensive care units.

I wonder if cpap makers could get in the ventilator business, or if a cpap machine might be enough to save a percentage of people if there weren't enough ventilators?

[Skinypupy]

That brought a smile to my face. Haven’t heard that song in years.

[Kraken]

Americans used to be more community-minded, more compliant to authority, and believed the same news. Growing up during the depression and fighting WW2 (as my parents did) did instill a sense of pulling together. IDK that we're softer today, but we're certainly more fractious.

[Blackhawk]

Americans used to be more community-minded, more compliant to authority, and believed the same news. Growing up during the depression and fighting WW2 (as my parents did) did instill a sense of pulling together. IDK that we're softer today, but we're certainly more fractious.

People during the depression certainly wouldn't have bought up all of the toilet paper in town in order sell it back to the community at a steep mark up. Well, a few might have, but they wouldn't have been well-received. By which I mean they'd have been made an example of.

[malchior]

Americans used to be more community-minded, more compliant to authority, and believed the same news. Growing up during the depression and fighting WW2 (as my parents did) did instill a sense of pulling together. IDK that we're softer today, but we're certainly more fractious.

I've been managing people for over 20 years. The amount of bullshit we deal with in the workplace has gotten increasingly silly. Especially in the last 5 or so years. I was sitting with my colleagues a few months ago and asked, "Are you dealing with a lot of HR nonsense lately". That kicked off a 2 hour plus conversation where I realized the problems I had were widely happening. What's that mean? I routinely have 3-4 open HR investigations going on simultaneously at any given time in my tiny (50 person) part of the org. My colleagues said the same.

I'd estimate about 95% are some variation of someone was mean to me. Say something perceived as negative in a meeting. HR complaint. Bad performance review. HR complaint. These kids are weak. Incredibly weak. I tiptoe around them now. Maybe it's our org but our industry (consulting) typically has a steady stream of kids coming in. The problems have really ramped up on the younger side of the org. I can't imagine our culture is so different that new entrants are reacting to mild criticism any differently here than somewhere else.

Another indicator to to look at the way people react to criticism online. I think the fracturing is hand in hand. You find a tiny tribe that treats you well because people only want to hear what they want to hear. You only have to look around to see the evidence of this everywhere. In this environment I don't see testing the populace working out. IMO they are more likely to implode than fuse.

[Holman]

Americans used to be more community-minded, more compliant to authority, and believed the same news. Growing up during the depression and fighting WW2 (as my parents did) did instill a sense of pulling together. IDK that we're softer today, but we're certainly more fractious.

People during the depression certainly wouldn't have bought up all of the toilet paper in town in order sell it back to the community at a steep mark up. Well, a few might have, but they wouldn't have been well-received. By which I mean they'd have been made an example of.

But how many people are *actually* doing that?

Part of our era's problem is access to huge amounts of information plus a real deficit of information literacy. We hear a few stories of bad behavior and they come to characterize *all* behavior.

FWIW, such things actually did happen in the Depression, though rarely as now, and communities didn't rally their special 1930s virtue to "make an example of" the bad actors any more or less than we do now. (Speaking of which, it's must be worth something that the Tennessee Purell hoarder we all read about yesterday is now a national pariah.)

Probably the biggest difference between "getting by" in the Depression and apparent consumer decadence today is the economy itself. There was just less stuff then in general. On our worst consumer day in this crisis, you'll still have access to more goods and services than Depression-era people did before the Depression even started.

I know I sound a bit curmudgeonly, but I think narratives matter. For instance, look at this post from this asshole:

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/stat ... 50304?s=20

Things get worse when bad actors push the narrative that we're all about to turn on each other and start killing for toilet paper. What the fuck is he thinking, pushing that line at a time like this?

The truth--not just anecdotally, but what's seen when journalists and sociologists actually look into it--is that communities find ways to help each other in a crisis. Neighbors check on each other. Communities work together. This was just as true in Puerto Rico last year as it was in the Depression.

[em2nought]

Americans used to be more community-minded, more compliant to authority, and believed the same news. Growing up during the depression and fighting WW2 (as my parents did) did instill a sense of pulling together. IDK that we're softer today, but we're certainly more fractious.

People during the depression certainly wouldn't have bought up all of the toilet paper in town in order sell it back to the community at a steep mark up. Well, a few might have, but they wouldn't have been well-received. By which I mean they'd have been made an example of.

Hendley 'The Scrounger' and Sefton beg to differ.

[Isgrimnur]

That brought a smile to my face. Haven’t heard that song in years.

Glad to share a bit of joy in these turbulent times.

[Smoove_B]

is that communities find ways to help each other in a crisis. Neighbors check on each other. Communities work together. This was just as true in Puerto Rico last year as it was in the Depression.

I've been lecturing on this for almost a decade - community matters:

The problem isn't that experts are dumb. It's that communities are not the sum of their roads, schools and malls. They are the sum of their relationships.

The Japanese government seems to get this. The government there actually funds block parties to bring communities together.

That might never happen in America, but Aldrich thinks each of us can do something on our own: Instead of practicing earthquake drills and building bunkers, we could reach out and make more friends among our co-workers and neighbors.

We're absolutely not the same America that existed 20, 30, 40+ years ago from a community/local level. Social media has both connected and fractured us. I have no doubt historians are going to use the lens of community for part of their analysis of this pandemic.

[Blackhawk]

Americans used to be more community-minded, more compliant to authority, and believed the same news. Growing up during the depression and fighting WW2 (as my parents did) did instill a sense of pulling together. IDK that we're softer today, but we're certainly more fractious.

People during the depression certainly wouldn't have bought up all of the toilet paper in town in order sell it back to the community at a steep mark up. Well, a few might have, but they wouldn't have been well-received. By which I mean they'd have been made an example of.

But how many people are *actually* doing that?

Part of our era's problem is access to huge amounts of information plus a real deficit of information literacy. We hear a few stories of bad behavior and they come to characterize *all* behavior.

That was mostly tongue-in-cheek. It was rare then, it is rare now.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/statu ... 2560636930

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/statu ... 5589926912

[Jeff V]

But how many people are *actually* doing that?

Enough to clear out store supplies in every store I've been to as well as Amazon?

I'm still hoping sanity and supplies are refilled before our need becomes critical. We've done okay with usage the past few days and I believe we still have at least one week's supply.

[El Guapo]

Yes, I remember back in the good old days where we banded together and responded to the hardship of the Depression and the Second World War by, for example, banding together as a community and locking 120,000 Japanese Americans into internment camps. Back when we had good, responsible government, and people knew how to work together. Too bad we're not more like that now!

[Jeff V]

Given what I'm seeing on Twitter, I am genuinely concerned for some communities. The Governor of Oklahoma essentially bragging online about defying public health recommendations. Schools in New Orleans ordered closed but Bourbon Street packed on a Friday night. Italy is begging US officials to take more aggressive actions. A few communities in NJ have announced curfews, but I'm telling everyone - widespread disruption is coming. Prepare.

I'm pretty happy with the response and leadership shown by our governor so far (it got him on MTP this morning). I wonder what the political narrative is going to be (and if it will even matter?) should the red states be devastated due to wanton stupidity.

[Defiant]

Italy's new deaths today was 368.
China's highest daily deaths was 150.

[El Guapo]

Italy's new deaths today was 368.
China's highest daily deaths was 150.

Italy's death rate is also much higher than the rest of Europe (may be the highest per capita death rate in the world thus far). I've heard some theorizing that Italy may be uniquely susceptible since it has a fairly elderly population and a large degree of intergenerational cohabitation.

[Holman]

But how many people are *actually* doing that?

Enough to clear out store supplies in every store I've been to as well as Amazon?

I'm still hoping sanity and supplies are refilled before our need becomes critical. We've done okay with usage the past few days and I believe we still have at least one week's supply.

Are they re-selling and price gouging?

Panic stocking-up isn't the same thing, and you'll find that the shelves are filling up again soon if not already. At least that's the case here.

[Blackhawk]

(Good lord that intentionally hyperbolic joke took on a life of its own.)

[Jeff V]

But how many people are *actually* doing that?

Enough to clear out store supplies in every store I've been to as well as Amazon?

I'm still hoping sanity and supplies are refilled before our need becomes critical. We've done okay with usage the past few days and I believe we still have at least one week's supply.

Are they re-selling and price gouging?

Panic stocking-up isn't the same thing, and you'll find that the shelves are filling up again soon if not already. At least that's the case here.

I have no idea. I'm not at the level of desperation yet that I would consider purchasing from a hoarder at usury prices. I have seen 3rd party listings on Amazon charging as much as $300 for a case, though.

[Smoove_B]

Are they re-selling and price gouging?

Like that douche Shakespeare?

"Over a 15-year period he purchased and stored grain, malt and barley for resale at inflated prices to his neighbours and local tradesmen," they wrote, adding that Shakespeare "pursued those who could not (or would not) pay him in full for these staples and used the profits to further his own money-lending activities."

He was pursued by the authorities for tax evasion, and in 1598 was prosecuted for hoarding grain during a time of shortage.

[Fretmute]

Directed to work from home today. They've even created an overhead number for people that don't have direct work to do. That's unprecedented.

[edit] - Well, they always create one. This time I'm allowed to tell employees to use it.

[Daehawk]

Everything I wanted to pick up at Dollar General on Tuesday is listed out of stock online. Well thats no good.