Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Daehawk]

Just stop french kissing strangers and you should be ok.

[Smoove_B]

So as our forum coronavirus expert, one follow-up. If someone is not coughing at all, could you theoretically contract coronavirus from them? I understand that asymptomatic folks can pass it along, but I'm just curious how. If they're not coughing, then would they have to sneeze on you? Breathe on you? Breathe on their hand, then shake your hand?

Partly I'm curious, but also I have to run through these explanations with my kids when I repeatedly tell them why the can't have playdates right now.

I'll help when I can.

You're asking the million dollar question. In short, we don't know. The WHO is currently considering advising medical staff to treat this like it is airborne as they are apparently seeing medical staff following the current protocols and still getting sick. I think they have some data to suggest it's theoretically possible for it to be airborne, but nothing scientifically demonstrated. If airborne spread was common we should be seeing a lot more people sick (as it would be spreading easier and faster). For those medical staff that are wearing PPE and are still testing positive, my gut feeling is that they're not following protocol exactly - and I'm not blaming them in any way. It was similar to what we saw with Ebola spreading in the US where it was eventually determined that medical staff were exposed as they were removing the PPE; they were tired and not always helping each other. Wearing PPE sucks and if you're not familiar/trained/comfortable wearing increased levels (as I'd expect most doctors are not), it's definitely cumbersome and an additional layer of thinking for removal.

So to circle back, when you talk to people, when you laugh, if you're just subconsciously clearing your throat, there are lil' bits of saliva and mucous that fly out of your mouth. It's those lil' bits that we're thinking can possibly transmit it when people are closer than 6', which is part of that recommendation. They would have low "energy" and likely arc short and go to the ground (or a lower flat surface) in under 6' - as opposed to coughs or sneezes which are higher energy and have wider distribution (and longer arcs).

I am guessing they're absolutely going to research and test whether or not just breathing in an out (nose/mouth) around someone can potentially pass the virus. I suspect it can, but risk is much lower. A few years ago, this exact type of study was published for influenza - being spread by just breathing. They even get into the coughing vs sneezing risk, but I think that's probably too much for most people to process.

Coughing and sneezing in your vicinity is clearly the thermonuclear option, but it's entirely possibly that there's a higher than average chance of being exposed just though being close enough to get hit wit those incidental bits of mucous and saliva that happen when breathing or just talking.

Regarding no play dates, tell them that everyone is assuming they have it - let's all pretend we have the disease we're all worried about. Knowing that, we don't want to give it to anyone else and then risk that person getting sick, even if we're not. There's definitely a lot of mixed opinions on this - even in the medical community, but I am fine being the bad guy and saying nope. But I would have a hard time criticizing a parent making their own risk evaluations right now with this. I can only voice my own opinion and what I would do (or wouldn't do).

[Blackhawk]

I'd like to step back for a second and thank Smoove. We know that it isn't your job answer our questions and keep us informed, and we know that these questions and such put a lot of pressure on you during a time that's got to be particularly nuts. But your warnings and advice really have helped. It was thanks to your advice that I had a decent emergency food supply long before the rush, you've helped us separate the wheat from the chaff when it comes to news, and you've particularly helped us to read between the carefully sanitized lines and know what to really expect (and plan for.)

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

[Isgrimnur]

Kansas City

Kansas City Public Schools remain open. The city’s Public Health Director, Rex Archer, says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have not recommended mass closures of schools in the wake of COVID-19. During a press conference today in Kansas City, Archer says very few people under 19 get the disease and they are not shedding the virus at a level that is very contagious.

“We really need to get past what I would almost call a mass hysteria of some of these decisions and think through what are the positives and negatives of this,” says Archer. “Each school district can independently make these decisions.”

He says closing schools creates many other consequences.

“Teen pregnancy rates often go up. Violence can go up. Kids aren’t then learning,” says Archer. “We have like 90% of our kids in one school district in this city that are on free and reduced school lunch and are taking backpacks home over the weekend. Folks that don’t have access to childcare – now are they going to take off work to watch their child at home or are we going to end up shifting those kids into overcrowded childcare settings?”

[Smoove_B]

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

I am genuinely happy to help. This is a community of people I've known for 2+ decades. If there's something positive I can contribute back, I will.

[Smoove_B]

Kansas City

I get it...truly. He's not wrong (about transmission rates and risk of illness). One of the bigger mysteries overall will be to figure out if kids are truly able to fight this off without any problems or if they are actually asymptomatic carriers or super spreaders. Time will tell if this was the right decision for Kansas City. I hope it is.

[Daehawk]

Wait I thought Smoove was a sewer inspector.

[geezer]

I'd like to step back for a second and thank Smoove. We know that it isn't your job answer our questions and keep us informed, and we know that these questions and such put a lot of pressure on you during a time that's got to be particularly nuts. But your warnings and advice really have helped. It was thanks to your advice that I had a decent emergency food supply long before the rush, you've helped us separate the wheat from the chaff when it comes to news, and you've particularly helped us to read between the carefully sanitized lines and know what to really expect (and plan for.)

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

+1

[Unagi]

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

I am genuinely happy to help. This is a community of people I've known for 2+ decades. If there's something positive I can contribute back, I will.

Have you ever painted a house?

but seriously - +1 here as well.

[Punisher]

So... this is happening in my county now...
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/hack ... ay/785095/

Pretty much on full lockdown n starting tomorrow night..
My wife was supposed to have hand surgery on Thursday that she’s been waiting a long while for... the hospital she was getting it at is the main big hospital in the area and has canceled all elective surgeries... spoke to the doctors office earlier today and they found another place that they can go to...tomorrow.. spent most of the day scrambling to get things done we thought we’d have days for and also now having to explain to my company I will now be down starting tomorrow instead of Thursday... we are already short a few people and are getting SLAMMED at work because all of our clients now need last minute vpn setups for everyone... thankfully, my company has a family first policy that they actually mean and not just some crap on a newsletter somewhere, so while not the best timing, they are being understanding.
I’m just glad it worked out, otherwise the next tentative availability would be a couple of months from now.

[Kraken]

Wait I thought Smoove was a sewer inspector.

I didn't even know she had a job.

[hitbyambulance]

So... this is happening in my county now...
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/hack ... ay/785095/

Pretty much on full lockdown n starting tomorrow night..

this really ought to be implemented all across the country.

[Kurth]

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

I am genuinely happy to help. This is a community of people I've known for 2+ decades. If there's something positive I can contribute back, I will.

Have you ever painted a house?

but seriously - +1 here as well.

And here, too! You’ve been a huge help, even if my wife is a little skeptical that Dr. Smoove from OO really exists.

[Daehawk]

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

I am genuinely happy to help. This is a community of people I've known for 2+ decades. If there's something positive I can contribute back, I will.

Have you ever painted a house?

but seriously - +1 here as well.

And here, too! You’ve been a huge help, even if my wife is a little skeptical that Dr. Smoove from OO really exists.

Dr. Smoove from OO huh? What are you wearing Dr. Smoove from OO? Is it khakis? Cause they're comfortable.

[Alefroth]

Three cases in my county now, and the health dept. just put out this bulletin-

http://www.whatcomcounty.us/CivicSend/V ... age/106505

[GungHo]

If anyone remembers where I work, please don't tweet this but..I'm actually getting better info from Smoove than my own employer. So yes, many many thanks Mr_B. We are just so flat footed with all of this and not just my employer but the country. In total reaction mode. Texans vs the Chiefs in the second qtr flat-footed.

And I am really fearful of what this country will look like once we get testing in place and the numbers skyrocket. I'm still having so many conversations with ppl who are calling this hysteria, saying it's 'the flu', and even some who are still on the 'it's the democrats fault'. Even now that Faux News in (mostly) onboard and dumpty trump's change in tone they just don't want to see it, I guess.
Admittedly these are deeply 'red' ppl I'm talking to, right up the trumpaloo alley and they aren't facing any $ hardship (quite the opposite as OT is going to likely be mandated for us and bonus pay is already being dangled). These are the ppl that, once they finally seeing the darkness creeping in..well I don't want to be around them, I know that.

Another thing I worry about is the ventilator shortage...heard a story today about how in the UK the govt is asking Rolls-Royce to switch over manufacturing to vents. Surely this must only be some very specific parts as a modern day vent is exceedingly complex (though most of that is the software). And while our laws for certifying medical equipment is different I can't image it's that different that they're willing to let unregulated companies start making this stuff. Honestly that might have been the nuttiest thing I've heard. But apart from the shortage there's a shortage of ppl to run the vents. They aren't 1:1 operations but there is a limit to how many one clinician can oversee before you start getting into dangerous water, ESPECIALLY given medical documentation requirements. You can't have one person overseeing 15 critically ill patients AND expect them to chart completely /correctly /accurately. Just not possible. And while there are many different clinicians capable of 'running a vent' many of those are anesthesiologists who obviously have other duties that only they can perform. So the pool of operators really isn't as big as we say it is on paper.

And yeah PPE for a 12 hour + shift, sucks. A lot. The mask alone is guaranteed to give you a 5/10 headache and while the 'donning ' part of PPE is pretty easy it's the 'doffing' that usually gets us. It's not rocket science but it does need to be done a certain way. And that requires practice. Can't really afford to practice right now with shortages of PPE so...once again we're in Catch-22 territorY.

EDIT: to say that my institution is addressing this by just give us the full on 'bunny suit'. Looks almost like a haz mat suit tho it obviously doesnt meet true haz mat reqs, but they're full body PPE that requires less practice to learn how doff correctly. Unfortunately they're incredibly expensive and in short supply. Another compromise. Sure it won't be the last

[LawBeefaroni]

Another thing I worry about is the ventilator shortage...heard a story today about how in the UK the govt is asking Rolls-Royce to switch over manufacturing to vents. Surely this must only be some very specific parts as a modern day vent is exceedingly complex (though most of that is the software). And while our laws for certifying medical equipment is different I can't image it's that different that they're willing to let unregulated companies start making this stuff. Honestly that might have been the nuttiest thing I've heard.

Back in the day I was a quality inspector at a plastics plant in Dearborn, MI. The company made parts for the automotive and medical industries. The tolerances for auto parts were actually stricter than for medical supplies, including surgical.


No idea what it's like today or what it's like in the UK but if the standards are anything like what they were back then it doesn't seem that crazy.




We set up a triage/screening tent outside our ER entrance yesterday. Too many people coming in complaining of Covid-19 that weren't truly symptomatic.

Another hospital in out system is now offering testing with results in a few hours. I think it's drive through but not certain yet.

[Smoove_B]

Wait I thought Smoove was a sewer inspector.

I have inspected sewers! Not fun!

I didn't even know she had a job.

Don't you remember, I was the first mammal to wear pants?

Have you ever painted a house?

I have painted a house! Not fun!

And here, too! You’ve been a huge help, even if my wife is a little skeptical that Dr. Smoove from OO really exists.

Not a Dr. but my first initials are MD. I am licensed to practice public health in NJ, so I guess that means something.

If anyone remembers where I work, please don't tweet this but..I'm actually getting better info from Smoove than my own employer. So yes, many many thanks Mr_B. We are just so flat footed with all of this and not just my employer but the country. In total reaction mode. Texans vs the Chiefs in the second qtr flat-footed.

I'm getting really good information from my counterparts at the state-level, much of it designed to help people like me communicate the important issues to the communities we serve. Employer response to this has been really, really mixed, but my guess is a lack of guidance from local/county officials. Anyway, the information I'm getting isn't really specific to my state so if I can channel appropriate guidance here, then I'd say that meets the spirit of what they're trying to accomplish.

[malchior]

Kansas City

I get it...truly. He's not wrong (about transmission rates and risk of illness). One of the bigger mysteries overall will be to figure out if kids are truly able to fight this off without any problems or if they are actually asymptomatic carriers or super spreaders. Time will tell if this was the right decision for Kansas City. I hope it is.

The super spreader aspect is something I worry about. I'm in daily contact with people in Europe. They've all resigned themselves to letting the kids outside to play soccer so the adults can work quietly at home. And I'm like...aren't you worried they'll be the disease network? We'll see. The hard way most likely.

[Dogstar]

tl;dr - you've made a difference. Thank you.

I am genuinely happy to help. This is a community of people I've known for 2+ decades. If there's something positive I can contribute back, I will.

Seriously, Smoove, you've been a big part of making this into a place where we can get understandable and relevant updates and explanations for what's happening with Corona from a medical/public health perspective. Thank you for all the time and effort you've put in during a time when I'm going to guess you're already slammed.

[Trent Steel]

So to circle back, when you talk to people, when you laugh, if you're just subconsciously clearing your throat, there are lil' bits of saliva and mucous that fly out of your mouth. It's those lil' bits that we're thinking can possibly transmit it when people are closer than 6', which is part of that recommendation.

Sorry, I'm the Smoove alt that provides no helpful information whatsoever.

[Paingod]

I'm getting really good information from my counterparts at the state-level, much of it designed to help people like me communicate the important issues to the communities we serve. Employer response to this has been really, really mixed, but my guess is a lack of guidance from local/county officials. Anyway, the information I'm getting isn't really specific to my state so if I can channel appropriate guidance here, then I'd say that meets the spirit of what they're trying to accomplish.

I appreciate that. I sincerely do. It helps me feel like I'm more aware of what's coming down the road, though there's little to nothing I seem to be able to do about it. When I go home and express frustration that it's not being taken more seriously, my wife thinks I'm overreacting. Then I come back here and see things like Italy's citizens wishing they had tried harder 10 days prior, or the UK deciding to go even stricter... and then I see the US flopping around like a beached fish. Some states trying, some refusing, the federal government chasing it's tail - everything reactionary, delayed, late, and poorly handled.

When I heard about this in China, I wasn't surprised - but it was so far away I didn't worry. When it hit the US I wasn't surprised, but figured we had the capability to shut it down. I mean, by then China knew what to do, which means we did too - lock everything around it down in an iron vice - but we didn't. Now that it's basically everywhere I'm simply dismayed with our (everyone combined) ignorance and refusal to commit to fixing problems when we can.

[Scraper]

I'm getting really good information from my counterparts at the state-level, much of it designed to help people like me communicate the important issues to the communities we serve. Employer response to this has been really, really mixed, but my guess is a lack of guidance from local/county officials. Anyway, the information I'm getting isn't really specific to my state so if I can channel appropriate guidance here, then I'd say that meets the spirit of what they're trying to accomplish.

I appreciate that. I sincerely do. It helps me feel like I'm more aware of what's coming down the road, though there's little to nothing I seem to be able to do about it. When I go home and express frustration that it's not being taken more seriously, my wife thinks I'm overreacting. Then I come back here and see things like Italy's citizens wishing they had tried harder 10 days prior, or the UK deciding to go even stricter... and then I see the US flopping around like a beached fish. Some states trying, some refusing, the federal government chasing it's tail - everything reactionary, delayed, late, and poorly handled.

When I heard about this in China, I wasn't surprised - but it was so far away I didn't worry. When it hit the US I wasn't surprised, but figured we had the capability to shut it down. I mean, by then China knew what to do, which means we did too - lock everything around it down in an iron vice - but we didn't. Now that it's basically everywhere I'm simply dismayed with our (everyone combined) ignorance and refusal to commit to fixing problems when we can.

One of the problems with locking it down here is that it was here a lot sooner than people thought. The first known Ohio case dates back to late January early February (Based on their estimated timeline of contraction to symptoms). That's way before anyone even considered lock downs here.

[Smoove_B]

I think the biggest point of confusion right now is a general belief that public health officials are acting out of fear. I think this is why I keep seeing people in other states posting things on social media about how "brave" or important it is to go out and visit local businesses - it's not a time to be afraid and hide at home! I'm not afraid - I'm going out to this bar or going to this party because staying home and hiding is exactly what the terrorists viruses want! I don't know why or how the message to engage in social distancing turned into one of fear, but genuinely no one I've spoken with is really "afraid" of the virus or believes we're all inside hiding from it, cowering indoors. Instead, the actual fear we have is that our medical response effort will be overwhelmed, which is going to ripple out into much larger impacts - many of which could have been prevented if instead we were more aggressive with social distancing.

How that gets communicated clearer I don't know.

[Trent Steel]

I'm not afraid - I'm going out to this bar or going to this party because staying home and hiding is exactly what the terrorists viruses Democrats want!

FTFY

So many people have been permanently blocked or snoozed for 30 days from my FB feed in the last week.

[malchior]

I don't know if communications is going to fix this. The impact is probably the only way forward. Everyone is too fractured. This whole crisis has further exposed the underlying rot in our politics. The crisis of leadership in the West that we've frankly been seeing for years now. This is probably our WW1 moment. Meaning if the worst passes: 7 figure death tolls in the United States, proportional losses in other nations in the West, an extended economic crisis, etc. then we should expect a re-alignment like we saw when the Monarchies fell in Europe. This system was teetering on major change and just got the legs kicked out from under it. We'll almost certainly see a massive political and economic realignment. It'll take a few years but there will be wholesale change.

[Skinypupy]

I'm not afraid - I'm going out to this bar or going to this party because staying home and hiding is exactly what the terrorists viruses Democrats want!

FTFY

So many people have been permanently blocked or snoozed for 30 days from my FB feed in the last week.

I've noticed that the most vocal "This is all a media/Democrat hoax. Imma go out and party!" folks have gotten awfully quiet over the past few days.

[stessier]

BTW, I suspect similar "shelter in place" orders are likely coming to NYC and other major cities. It's somewhat surprising that such an order for the better part of 7 million hasn't received more coverage. But most media companies tend to be more focused upon the East coast, so there will likely be plenty of coverage if and when orders go into effect there.

The comment overheard in this very red city was "They are Communist anyway so now they get to see what living in China is like."

[Smoove_B]

I don't have the words.

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/sta ... 3223738368

"I know they don't want us to do this, but turn around and reach out to people...this church will never close. The only time the church will close is during the rapture...this Bible school is open because we're raising up revivalists, not pansies."

[LordMortis]

I'm not afraid - I'm going out to this bar or going to this party because staying home and hiding is exactly what the terrorists viruses Democrats want!

FTFY

So many people have been permanently blocked or snoozed for 30 days from my FB feed in the last week.

They were culled in 2015/2016 and I've no regrets. I am a bit sad so many were family, but my I will not tolerate dis respect to my wall. It will not be used to spread disinformation or propaganda. No exceptions... Ok one exception. If propaganda is acknowledged as humor... I used to give warnings but even that became tiresome and it was clear that federalist and occupy democrats share share share people have no interest in caring about my warnings.

[malchior]

I keep the noise. I like to know what the clamor level is at. I just don't let it bother me.

[Kurth]

I don't know if communications is going to fix this. The impact is probably the only way forward. Everyone is too fractured. This whole crisis has further exposed the underlying rot in our politics. The crisis of leadership in the West that we've frankly been seeing for years now. This is probably our WW1 moment. Meaning if the worst passes: 7 figure death tolls in the United States, proportional losses in other nations in the West, an extended economic crisis, etc. then we should expect a re-alignment like we saw when the Monarchies fell in Europe. This system was teetering on major change and just got the legs kicked out from under it. We'll almost certainly see a massive political and economic realignment. It'll take a few years but there will be wholesale change.

There's that dose of malchior optimism I was looking for!

[malchior]

I don't know if communications is going to fix this. The impact is probably the only way forward. Everyone is too fractured. This whole crisis has further exposed the underlying rot in our politics. The crisis of leadership in the West that we've frankly been seeing for years now. This is probably our WW1 moment. Meaning if the worst passes: 7 figure death tolls in the United States, proportional losses in other nations in the West, an extended economic crisis, etc. then we should expect a re-alignment like we saw when the Monarchies fell in Europe. This system was teetering on major change and just got the legs kicked out from under it. We'll almost certainly see a massive political and economic realignment. It'll take a few years but there will be wholesale change.

There's that dose of malchior optimism I was looking for!

Yup. I'll point out it could be good change. I just can't imagine there won't be wholesale massive change if the worst case happens. Especially with the election. We could see the Senate/House/Presidency flipping wholesale blue across the board for instance. On the other side, we could continue forward into authoritarianism. There will be big ramifications.

[Paingod]

The comment overheard in this very red city was "They are Communist smart anyway so now they get to see what living in China without us is like."

[LawBeefaroni]

Our rehab center and fitness center are being turned into Covid clinics. Apparently there is good evidence that we're going to need them.

Meanwhile, I've put on 3 lbs from a week's worth of of no gym and emergency lunch meetings.


A lot of hospitals and health systems are going to have huge revenue issues as we're clearing facilities and waiting for the storm. Don't think that's been sufficiently factored into any aid packages.

[Zarathud]

Finally, tax season delayed by 90 days. No interest or penalties on up to $1 million for individuals and $10 million for corporations. Just file by the deadline.

Of course, this relief only applies if you haven’t paid and owe taxes — so it helps the wealthy — but it was a non-brainer action wholly within the Trump administration’s control.

[malchior]

Finally, tax season delayed by 90 days. No interest or penalties on up to $1 million for individuals and $10 million for corporations. Just file by the deadline.

Of course, this relief only applies if you haven’t paid and owe taxes — so it helps the wealthy — but it was a non-brainer action wholly within the Trump administration’s control.

It helps me because I'm behind the ball and actually have no idea what my tax exposure is. I'm still waiting on some important return documents (at least two K1s but also 1099-Cs and 1099-Ws). It probably doesn't affect taxes owed too much but at some point I might have to just file and do an amendment later. And I just got told at least one is delayed now due to COVID-19. Very frustrating.

[Defiant]

So now that I've received emails from companies I've never ever interacted with in the physical world telling me what they're doing to address covid-19, the burning question is: What is OctopusOverlords doing to address the problem? Limit each thread to a maximum of 10 contributors?

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/ ... 8926534657

[LordMortis]

I don't take responsibility at all...

https://twitter.com/Public_Citizen/stat ... 8979646467

(video of POTUS talking about cost of staffing CDC you don't need because you can get "all the good people quickly")

/wonders what the people of Puerto Rico are thinking