Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[YellowKing]

What is OctopusOverlords doing to address the problem?

[Daehawk]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/ ... 8926534657

What magic lamp is it rubbing?

[Zarathud]

Finally, tax season delayed by 90 days. No interest or penalties on up to $1 million for individuals and $10 million for corporations. Just file by the deadline.

Of course, this relief only applies if you haven’t paid and owe taxes — so it helps the wealthy — but it was a non-brainer action wholly within the Trump administration’s control.

It helps me because I'm behind the ball and actually have no idea what my tax exposure is. I'm still waiting on some important return documents (at least two K1s but also 1099-Cs and 1099-Ws). It probably doesn't affect taxes owed too much but at some point I might have to just file and do an amendment later. And I just got told at least one is delayed now due to COVID-19. Very frustrating.

Update: Taxpayers still must file by April 15, the announced extension only applies to the date of payment.

Apparently Mnuchin in a press briefing stated that taxpayers should still file by April 15. Mnuchin and Trump are fucking incompetent and irresponsible. This leaves tax preparation as a disease vector, as many people still show up to get extensions and will seek out their refunds.

[Smoove_B]

Our governor issued all kinds of emergency waivers for hospitals earlier today (related to capacity/expansion and approvals), which I thought was pretty impressive. Now I'm reading that the state is looking to re-open wings and possibly open closed hospitals to try and make up for the anticipated 300,000 beds that they think will be needed. Wow.

[LawBeefaroni]

Our governor issued all kinds of emergency waivers for hospitals earlier today (related to capacity/expansion and approvals), which I thought was pretty impressive. Now I'm reading that the state is looking to re-open wings and possibly open closed hospitals to try and make up for the anticipated 300,000 beds that they think will be needed. Wow.

We're looking at a 30% to 50% loss in revenues while we wait for the onslaught. Cry me a river, I know, but we're a safety net hospital and that's shutdown type losses. Fortunately we'll survive but a lot of our counterparts might not without help.

[Smoove_B]

There has to be bigger-picture financial/resource activity happening at a state/federal level. HAS to be, right?

Or will NJ/NY/CA buy all the test kits direct from the WHO and everyone else is on their own? Good lord.

[Holman]

So now that I've received emails from companies I've never ever interacted with in the physical world telling me what they're doing to address covid-19, the burning question is: What is OctopusOverlords doing to address the problem? Limit each thread to a maximum of 10 contributors?

In order to limit the spread of infection, OO posts will be immersed in alcohol every evening starting at about 5:00pm and until at least 3:00am Eastern Time.

In other words, nothing will change.

[wonderpug]

So now that I've received emails from companies I've never ever interacted with in the physical world telling me what they're doing to address covid-19, the burning question is: What is OctopusOverlords doing to address the problem? Limit each thread to a maximum of 10 contributors?

In order to limit the spread of infection, OO posts will be immersed in alcohol every evening starting at about 5:00pm and until at least 3:00am Eastern Time.

In other words, nothing will change.

After sharing a viral post or meme, each poster in the affected thread will be subject to a mandatory self quarantine for 14 days and will be unable to post in other threads.

[Smoove_B]

In case anyone wants to watch how an actual leader addresses this:

https://twitter.com/TomasORuanaidh/stat ... 7515857920

We won’t forget that speech, if anyone you know has missed it - please share via WhatsApp, Facebook, give them a call - it’s information that needs to be heard and heeded, not feared:

[malchior]

If you ever wanted to see why Bloomberg would have been a terrible President just turn on MSNBC now. I literally want to launch him into the sun right now. MSNBC should not have him on.

He is essentially saying it is unrealistic to think people are going to stay home. He is saying that people aren't prepared. This all might be true but now isn't the time to say this. He said that deeming people non-essential vs. essential is insulting and people will go out in spite. Jeebus.

https://twitter.com/beardyblue/status/1 ... 1261977600

Why is @msnbc having Bloomberg on air to give bad advice and be skeptical about sheltering in place? And why haven't they brought out Liz Warren to hit him over the head with a chair?

[Daehawk]

Recovering from coronavirus, Dan Goldman describes testing ordeal

[malchior]

By the by, there have been an uptick of cyber attacks related to the Coronavirus. Some entity tried to DDOS HHS, some force is using the FB 'expert' system to remove useful health information, and one of my clients had someone attack their health care portal. As far as I've seen to date, mo one in the private intel community can figure out what is going on yet.

[Smoove_B]

New York state is putting call out to recently retired health professionals, asking them if they'd be willing to return to service as reserve staff if necessary. When Friday finally gets here, it's going to feel like a totally different week.

[malchior]

New York state is putting call out to recently retired health professionals, asking them if they'd be willing to return to service as reserve staff if necessary. When Friday finally gets here, it's going to feel like a totally different week.

I saw that. I figured the uptake is going to be low considering many are likely in the at risk pool.

[Stefan Stirzaker]

Australia has just pushed 20000 nursing students into the field. Assuming they will be doing a lot of cleaning and low tech items. Taking swabs or similar

[Smoove_B]

They're apparently already speaking with nursing, medical and public health schools to ask for students and staff available for on-call work as well. They are not messing around - it's good to see, quite frankly.

[LawBeefaroni]

Right now we have a ton of providers in labor pool standby. Meaning they have nothing to do a the moment so they are off the clock (you don't pay surgeon that is doing zero surgeries or a PCP who just cancelled all non-emergent appointments). We may need additional providers in short order but I don't see calling up retired providers.


Incidentally, we just had a PCP retire. He's like 76. Not calling him back into service. Good doctor but no.


I get a no holds barred approach and erring on the side of extreme preparedness. Everyone just needs to realize that the cost of a prolonged emergency is going to be far, far more than you think.

[pr0ner]

https://twitter.com/beardyblue/status/1 ... 1261977600

Lol. I know who that guy is. If you're him I'm gonna laugh a lot more than I already am seeing you post this tweet.

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/beardyblue/status/1 ... 1261977600

Lol. I know who that guy is. If you're him I'm gonna laugh a lot more than I already am seeing you post this tweet.

Nah just a random tweet from a sea of people bagging on Bloomberg.

[pr0ner]

https://twitter.com/beardyblue/status/1 ... 1261977600

Lol. I know who that guy is. If you're him I'm gonna laugh a lot more than I already am seeing you post this tweet.

Nah just a random tweet from a sea of people bagging on Bloomberg.

Phew.

[Skinypupy]

The streak of Rand Paul being a colossal douchecanoe continues unabated.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... d-n1162356

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate would move at "warp speed" to pass coronavirus legislation on Tuesday, but Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., put a damper on those plans, two leadership sources told NBC News.

Senators were on Tuesday heading towards a vote on the package — which includes provisions for free coronavirus testing, secures paid emergency leave, enhances unemployment insurance, strengthens food security initiatives, and increases federal Medicaid funding to states — but had to slam the brakes on because of an amendment Paul proposed.

The sources said Paul is forcing a vote on his amendment, which would "require a social security number for purposes of the child tax credit, and to provide the President the authority to transfer funds as necessary, and to terminate United States military operations and reconstruction activities in Afghanistan."

[Daehawk]

Hope he bites it hard.

Im hoping those multiple $1000 checks get going. A few months of those would REALLY help me out as it would many others in my shape.I am down to nothing until next month. Not even gas for trips to town. Gotta sit and save. Been doing it for months now. But that would help a lot.

[Kraken]

Im hoping those multiple $1000 checks get going. A few months of those would REALLY help me out as it would many others in my shape.I am down to nothing until next month. Not even gas for trips to town. Gotta sit and save. Been doing it for months now. But that would help a lot.

I hope so, too, for your sake and the sake of everybody else living hand-to-mouth. I don't need extra money yet, but my income is slowly drying up, and by mid-April I'll be lucky to have any work at all. I like the Andrew Yang UBI model of sending everybody $1,000/mo until the emergency is over. I don't like the proposal I heard that would send everybody who makes under $100k a $4,000 check. $100k is just a middling income in high-cost cities. Start reducing the payments at that level, sure, but don't cut them off.

I am encouraged that the GOP is at least considering demand-side economics, which breaks with their orthodoxy. All the trillions they're giving banks and corporations will keep the financial system afloat, but tax cuts and low interest rates won't do squat for the masses who actually drive the economy.

Worst-case scenario, we could both start drawing Social Security early and sip from our dramatically-reduced retirement accounts. We'll survive, but not in the style we've worked and saved our whole lives to achieve. And that ain't a lavish style to begin with.

[Isgrimnur]

CNBC

As of 9:53 p.m. ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530 points, indicating a more than 700-point loss at Wednesday’s open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were also down.

[Daehawk]

DOW is like a roller coaster with too many dips.

[Daehawk]

Trump said they expect this to all be over by July or August. Hell thats about when it will start all over again.

[Grifman]

i want to run through some financial implications:

1) Obviously, we, the people, need help. I'm glad they are moving from a payroll tax rebate because that won't help the unemployed who won't be drawing a paycheck. For once I am with many Republicans on this. The Democratic House plan is too cumbersome, relies upon too many different programs and federal bureaucracies - food stamps, employee leave/sick days, etc. Just send people cash, that's the easiest and quickest. A thousand dollars per adult and $500/child would give a decent baseline of $2000/month for a couple with two kids. And if it is tax free, that's really more like $2500 pre-tax. Another alternative is supplementing and increasing unemployment benefits offered by the states - that would use an existing program and get it to those that need it the most.

2) Cities and states will need help - for example the New York subway systems is facing huge losses due to loss of ridership. Airports will lose money due to lack of fliers. Cities/states are going to face loss of tax revenue and will need assistance.

3) Here's the hard one - small businesses. There's the SBA, but the federal govt is just not set up to lend small amounts to millions of small businesses on short notice. This is going to be a tough nut to crack but if we don't do something here, there won't be jobs to come back to once we get past this. Some have talked of using the banks who already have the lending infrastructure to make loans guaranteed by the federal govt. Another thing that make this difficult is that the opportunity fraud will just be enormous. But we need to do something for the local restaurants and other small businesses that will be hit by this.

4) Big business. Any bailouts need to come with conditions. Elizabeth Warren, of course, has already put a list of those together, things like the following - no dividends/stock buybacks for 5 years, employees get so many seats on the board, limitations on stock options for execs (they must be made available to all employees), etc.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 029006340

Some industries really need to scrap and bow. The airlines want billions but they've use the vast majority of their free cash flow the last number of years for stock buybacks rather than having a rainy day fund. Well, no, more, there need to be a lot of conditions for any govt assistance to them.

Cruise lines, sorry, just absolutely no. Not a crucial industry and even worse, they aren't even US companies. Most are foreign corporations with foreign flagged ships that pay every little US tax, yet use the services of the US govt all of the time - Customs and Immigration, Coast Guard, etc. And because they are foreign flagged, they aren't subject to US regulations for the most part. No aid unless they get rid of the foreign shells and foreign flags - and even then, I'm not sure. If they want help, let them go to "their" governments and request it.

Lastly, many Republicans objected to Obama's stimulus plan - it did not get a single GOP vote in the House because it was to heavily weighted towards spending and not tax cuts. But now it is the Republicans proposing spending to boost things. Why am I not surprised that with a Republican president they now want to spend money on a stimulus plan?

[LawBeefaroni]

Cruise lines, sorry, just absolutely no. Not a crucial industry and even worse, they aren't even US companies. Most are foreign corporations with foreign flagged ships that pay every little US tax, yet use the services of the US govt all of the time - Customs and Immigration, Coast Guard, etc. And because they are foreign flagged, they aren't subject to US regulations for the most part. No aid unless they get rid of the foreign shells and foreign flags - and even then, I'm not sure. If they want help, let them go to "their" governments and request it.

As long as we have the same standards for tech and pharma. You know, those giant Irish corporations such as Apple, Microsoft, Allergan....

[LawBeefaroni]

Our non essential staff are probably going WFH by Thursday. Anyone unable to work needs to use PTO or unpaid leave.

[Grifman]

Cruise lines, sorry, just absolutely no. Not a crucial industry and even worse, they aren't even US companies. Most are foreign corporations with foreign flagged ships that pay every little US tax, yet use the services of the US govt all of the time - Customs and Immigration, Coast Guard, etc. And because they are foreign flagged, they aren't subject to US regulations for the most part. No aid unless they get rid of the foreign shells and foreign flags - and even then, I'm not sure. If they want help, let them go to "their" governments and request it.

As long as we have the same standards for tech and pharma. You know, those giant Irish corporations such as Apple, Microsoft, Allergan....

I don't see any need for those firms requiring assistance in most circumstances.

[Grifman]

This f you want to see how your city will fare with respect to hospital beds under several different disease scenarios, take a look at this:

https://projects.propublica.org/graphic ... -hospitals

[em2nought]

I'm straight up expecting to be financially wiped out by this.

[GungHo]

This f you want to see how your city will fare with respect to hospital beds under several different disease scenarios, take a look at this:

https://projects.propublica.org/graphic ... -hospitals

That is scary. Like, terrifying.

To your point about the govt payouts to individuals, I'm mostly on board. I think there has to be a limit based on your current salary as well as a sliding scale for people who are currently employed during the crisis. Speaking just for myself, assuming society doesn't completely collapse in which case all bets are off, we're not going to need it. My wife and I are both clinical, bedside staff...getting hours is not going to be a problem for us (getting daycare OTOH...). Personally I'd rather see a tax cut than straight cash. After there any discussion about that? Giving ppl options as to how they take the $?

Great article. Thank you. Very eye opening

[Formix]

+1000 Thanks to Smoove. As well as the rest of you. It's times like these that I really appreciate the community that I've been lurking in for 15 years. We are (when compared to society as a whole) a reasonable bunch, focused more on facts than fear. That's important in these times. The facts shared here have transformed how I am facing this crisis and have informed how I respond and inform those around me, hopefully rippling out in some positive way. That being said, that propublica thing is scary as $hit.

[Octavious]

Well I got approved to work from home for now. So if riots break out I should be fine unless the bears get in on it. I don't know how I feel about the pouring money onto people idea. I guess it's no different than them bailing out the companies, but I feel like when this clears up they will make us regret ever getting anything.

My job is working on MDLZ global software. I'm pretty much in charge of all of it and right now and MDLZ is making money hand over fist with the panic buying. So I doubt my job is in trouble, but who knows anymore.

[LawBeefaroni]

Cruise lines, sorry, just absolutely no. Not a crucial industry and even worse, they aren't even US companies. Most are foreign corporations with foreign flagged ships that pay every little US tax, yet use the services of the US govt all of the time - Customs and Immigration, Coast Guard, etc. And because they are foreign flagged, they aren't subject to US regulations for the most part. No aid unless they get rid of the foreign shells and foreign flags - and even then, I'm not sure. If they want help, let them go to "their" governments and request it.

As long as we have the same standards for tech and pharma. You know, those giant Irish corporations such as Apple, Microsoft, Allergan....

I don't see any need for those firms requiring assistance in most circumstances.

We're looking at multi-trillion stimulus. They are getting assistance.

I agree that cruises aren't critical. But they employ a shitload and many are as American (or as unAmerican) as most large US corporations.

He'll, we're pumping money to Wells Fargo, a criminal enterprise. My issue is trying to apply a moral test right now.

[Paingod]

I don't know how I feel about the pouring money onto people idea. I guess it's no different than them bailing out the companies

Companies should be dying through competition and natural market fluctuations, but we'll need somewhere to send people to work when this is "over" (if it ever is). People should not be dying because they can't buy food or pay rent when they loose their jobs because there's a pandemic. Barely perceptible difference, but it's there.

[malchior]

I don't know how I feel about the pouring money onto people idea. I guess it's no different than them bailing out the companies

Companies should be dying through competition and natural market fluctuations, but we'll need somewhere to send people to work when this is "over" (if it ever is). People should not be dying because they can't buy food or pay rent when they loose their jobs because there's a pandemic. Barely perceptible difference, but it's there.

This isn't normal market fluctuations or competition at play. This was an economy at the top of its business cycle having tons of demand artificially sucked out all at once across the world. Figuring out who should win or lose here isn't the typical market exercise it would be. It's economic triage. And many of us absolutely have zero trust in the people entrusted with carrying it out. It's grim.

[Grifman]

In a case of corporate generosity, Marriott is telling the govt that employees that have been laid off are still working for them, but have just been assigned “0 hours”. Hence this doesn’t impact the their future unemployment insurance rate - because these people aren’t really unemployed - and also making laid off workers ineligible for unemployment insurance. So nice of them, hope they don’t ask for any bail out money.

[malchior]

I saw that but it was being reported by one person. Is there an established pattern now? I was wondering if it was just a misunderstanding. A lot of things are happening - it could have been accidental.