Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:59 pm

They look the same to me in pictures.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm

Prepare

Sorry, America, the Full Lockdown Is Coming

Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:32 pm

Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21518F

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:37 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm Prepare

Sorry, America, the Full Lockdown Is Coming

While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm Prepare

Sorry, America, the Full Lockdown Is Coming

Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

Christ, this is depressing.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:42 pm

Very. Would rather my wife be with me instead of me alone. oh well.

Have you seen the old movie Contagion? I haven't. We loved the Dustin Hoffman and Rene Russo one called Outbreak. But this one looks neat. Its a big rental right now.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-trending

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:53 pm

stessier wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:34 pm
Kraken wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:19 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:46 pm
Daehawk wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:44 pm Another bad day for the DOW so far....

19,123.90 −2,113.48 (9.95%)

I need to watch and see if they all clap at the end of trading.
Well, one question is what is equilibrium for the Dow for an economy under large scale quarantines (and, you know, subject to a pandemic)?
At the low point of the Great Recession the Dow fell as low as 8,700, so I'm going with that.
3/1/2009 I see a low of 6469.

Ah, my bad. I'll admit I don't pay close attention; I just remember noticing 8700 at one point and thinking that's their natural level. Stock money isn't real until you take it out.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:58 pm

I don't know how NYC isn't on lock down yet - the numbers there are growing faster than Italy. Maybe that is testing catching up...but this is looking dire.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:01 pm

It's because unless NJ and PA go on lockdown as well, the NYC order will be pointless. This is the problem with a pandemic, infectious disease and 50 states all acting like they're on their own. Governor Cuomo wants to get assurances people in the greater NY metro area are going to be locked down as well. They're trying to coordinate to have the greatest impact.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:02 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm Prepare

Sorry, America, the Full Lockdown Is Coming

Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

Christ, this is depressing.

I don't know if people here will tolerate that. Honestly it seems like at some point you might have to go through it. Another thing to consider. What would kill more people? The disease or the economic collapse?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:03 pm

Got roped into a Covid-19 response team project for clinical employee health. I'll just say this. Get home and get isolated. Do not fuck around with this. It'll put a 40 year old with no co-morbidities into critical care in a matter days. Right now there is no treatment other than oxygen and shots in the dark (rumors of an HIV drug being used?). Ride it out until this gets solved.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:12 pm

Counterpoint:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128

“If I get corona, I get corona. At the end of the day, I'm not gonna let it stop me from partying”: Spring breakers are still flocking to Miami, despite coronavirus warnings.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:22 pm

In a bit of "positive" news, testing seems to be finally ramping up according to the Covid Tracking Project. ~20K test results returned today.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:26 pm

Well it may weed out some stupidity genes.

But staying home for long periods is not possible. Even for me who stays home. I still have to make some payments. I still need tp and food. I have to have some things to stay home. Having to go out just so I dont have to go out is very counter productive but its required from me. If I had plenty of money and stores had plenty of stock it would be different. Id simply stock up in a couple runs and stay home. As is theres no way to do that as going out multiple times for simple items is required.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:35 pm

An excellent primer on what it means to be ordered to shelter in place:

“With this order in place, you will still be able to get food, care for relatives, run necessary errands and conduct the essential parts of your life,” said Dr Grant Colfax, the director of the San Francisco department of public health. “You will still be able to walk your dog or go on a hike alone or with someone you live with or even with another person as long as you keep six feet between you.”

...

“I do interpret that, in theory, that they could actually arrest somebody,” said Jonathan Holtzman, the former chief deputy city attorney in San Francisco. “As a completely practical matter, I do think that it’s very, very unlikely that a lot of people are going to get arrested under this because there are so many different functions that you could be performing that are exempted.” For example, any resident outside their home could very well be on their way to the grocery store, or engaging in outdoor exercise.

At a news conference, William Scott, the San Francisco police chief, said his officers planned on taking a “compassionate, commonsense approach” to the order and would use enforcement as a last resort.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:36 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:12 pm Counterpoint:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128
“If I get corona, I get corona. At the end of the day, I'm not gonna let it stop me from partying”: Spring breakers are still flocking to Miami, despite coronavirus warnings.

It won't kill him. But maybe he'll only be able to inhale joints with 35% effectiveness for the rest of his life. No biggie.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:04 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:12 pm Counterpoint:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128
“If I get corona, I get corona. At the end of the day, I'm not gonna let it stop me from partying”: Spring breakers are still flocking to Miami, despite coronavirus warnings.

It won't kill him. But maybe he'll only be able to inhale joints with 35% effectiveness for the rest of his life. No biggie.

Well that, and he watches his grandma who took care of him his whole life die 15 years early from a disease he intentionally contracted and brought to her living room. And sits on that guilt forever.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:07 pm

Daehawk wrote:Very. Would rather my wife be with me instead of me alone. oh well.

Have you seen the old movie Contagion? I haven't. We loved the Dustin Hoffman and Rene Russo one called Outbreak. But this one looks neat. Its a big rental right now.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-trending

Outbreak is awesome. So is Contagion. It SURREAL watching it now. Is both terrifying and reassuring. The disease in the movie is worse and the system works and Murrica survives. But a million dead people and an extended national lock down are hard to watch under current conditions.

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Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:28 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:36 pmIt won't kill him. But maybe he'll only be able to inhale joints with 35% effectiveness for the rest of his life. No biggie.

Did you also talk about how it might attack bone? Or is that not being circulated yet? I've said too much.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:43 pm

Statements that will not age well, part whatever:

On Wednesday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel highlighted a quote from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) in a new interview, in which he appeared to suggest that it wouldn’t be worth shutting down the economy over the risk of 11 million Americans dying.

“I’m not denying what a nasty disease COVID-19 can be, and how it’s obviously devastating to somewhere between 1 and 3.4 percent of the population,” said Johnson. “But that means 97 to 99 percent will get through this and develop immunities and will be able to move beyond this. But we don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways. It’s a risk we accept so we can move about. We don’t shut down our economies because tens of thousands of people die from the common flu.”

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:19 pm

I feel like ass and it's not because of sickness. My dad called to ask if he could come over so I could help him with his tax software and I told him I've been around too many people with children and those people have displayed too many signs of sickness. The led to C19 talk wherein he said at least the president has done what he can and for the first time in my 50 years on the planet I raised my voice to my father, demand the president is a piece of shit and we can't have this conversation.

I'm borderline hysterical from having raised my voice to my father.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:34 pm

I am so sorry to hear that. I can't excuse or explain your dad's behavior, but everything I'm hearing/seeing is suggesting people 60+ are in severe denial over what's happening / what's about to happen. Some of it is likely political, but some is just psychological. I've raised my voice to my dad over the last few days because it's not sinking in. My parents are in their early 70s and telling me "the tv said we can go out shopping". I've been grabbing food for them locally, but they will only give me like 10 items to get, thinking it's a weekly shopping trip. They're also really angry that I won't go and get them fresh milk or juice. My dad told me he had to go to the bank today to "move money from one account to another" and was getting angry when I said I would do it for him online.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:41 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:28 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:36 pmIt won't kill him. But maybe he'll only be able to inhale joints with 35% effectiveness for the rest of his life. No biggie.
Did you also talk about how it might attack bone? Or is that not being circulated yet? I've said too much.

That dude would just be like "Hehe... he said bone!!"

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:57 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:34 pm I am so sorry to hear that. I can't excuse or explain your dad's behavior, but everything I'm hearing/seeing is suggesting people 60+ are in severe denial over what's happening / what's about to happen. Some of it is likely political, but some is just psychological. I've raised my voice to my dad over the last few days because it's not sinking in. My parents are in their early 70s and telling me "the tv said we can go out shopping". I've been grabbing food for them locally, but they will only give me like 10 items to get, thinking it's a weekly shopping trip. They're also really angry that I won't go and get them fresh milk or juice. My dad told me he had to go to the bank today to "move money from one account to another" and was getting angry when I said I would do it for him online.

My parents are 78 and 76. They are shopping and that's fine. They can't not live. They isolate well enough most of the time. But I have not. I have had to work and WFH for the rest of the office didn't start until Monday. Previous to that there were 35 parents of young children in the office, many of whom were obviously their normal coughing Mid march disease carrying selves. That doesn't hold this year.

I was just reading about Wayne county known patients. The first guy diagnosed is dead. I was reading about tracking of known cases and teacher was about every 4th person on the list. So I figure there's no way I'm getting near my parents. I refuse to be the immunosupressed guy what transmits the virus to them.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:57 pm

i do wonder what the actual known China stats are, assuming they differ from what's officially reported. is it _really_ being controlled in China?

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:01 pm

I have a feeling that we're going to be really, really envious of people who don't need to use laundromats soon.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:03 pm

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:57 pm i do wonder what the actual known China stats are, assuming they differ from what's officially reported. is it _really_ being controlled in China?

Lots of video and social media got out of Wuhan even when the city was the sharp focus of government lockdown and information control.

If other cities were experiencing outbreaks in ways we haven't heard about, I imagine we'd be seeing some sign of it. Authoritarian states are actually leakiest when they try most not to be.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:10 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:34 pm I am so sorry to hear that. I can't excuse or explain your dad's behavior, but everything I'm hearing/seeing is suggesting people 60+ are in severe denial over what's happening / what's about to happen. Some of it is likely political, but some is just psychological. I've raised my voice to my dad over the last few days because it's not sinking in. My parents are in their early 70s and telling me "the tv said we can go out shopping". I've been grabbing food for them locally, but they will only give me like 10 items to get, thinking it's a weekly shopping trip. They're also really angry that I won't go and get them fresh milk or juice. My dad told me he had to go to the bank today to "move money from one account to another" and was getting angry when I said I would do it for him online.

Normalcy bias is part of it.

I was thinking about it on the way home. Usually I'm the guy who assumes everything is overblown. I go to work in a blizzard, walk home at 4am, etc. I waited out a tornado in a tent when I was 10 (it passed about 1000 yards away). I get where they're coming from.

But I've seen enough to believe that this is the real deal. Do not fuck with this. I'm happy to be wrong. Blame me later.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:17 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:10 pm But I've seen enough to believe that this is the real deal. Do not fuck with this. I'm happy to be wrong. Blame me later.

Yes. I will happily take all the slings and arrows if this blows over and everything is sunshine and lollipops in May. But when I'm seeing stuff that (to me) was just theoretical for the last 25+ years now actually happening? Do not fuck around with this.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:18 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:01 pm I have a feeling that we're going to be really, really envious of people who don't need to use laundromats soon.

Washtub and drying line.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:21 pm

https://twitter.com/NYCTSubway/status/1 ... 8021180417

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:23 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:17 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:10 pm But I've seen enough to believe that this is the real deal. Do not fuck with this. I'm happy to be wrong. Blame me later.
Yes. I will happily take all the slings and arrows if this blows over and everything is sunshine and lollipops in May. But when I'm seeing stuff that (to me) was just theoretical for the last 25+ years now actually happening? Do not fuck around with this.

Me: Arriving to the party.

Smoove: Been drinking since noon.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:23 pm

Scared by the prospect a coronavirus epidemic in parts of Afghanistan under their control, the Taliban have pledged their readiness to work with healthcare workers instead of killing them, as they have been accused of in the past.

Coronavirus makes Taliban realise they need health workers alive not dead

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:40 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:01 pm I have a feeling that we're going to be really, really envious of people who don't need to use laundromats soon.

I’m in the same boat, my friend.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:41 pm

We now have another poll (WSJ/NBC had one over the weekend as well) that indicates that right-wing media coverage of COVID-19 has led to polarization about the crisis.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:55 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:10 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:34 pm I am so sorry to hear that. I can't excuse or explain your dad's behavior, but everything I'm hearing/seeing is suggesting people 60+ are in severe denial over what's happening / what's about to happen. Some of it is likely political, but some is just psychological. I've raised my voice to my dad over the last few days because it's not sinking in. My parents are in their early 70s and telling me "the tv said we can go out shopping". I've been grabbing food for them locally, but they will only give me like 10 items to get, thinking it's a weekly shopping trip. They're also really angry that I won't go and get them fresh milk or juice. My dad told me he had to go to the bank today to "move money from one account to another" and was getting angry when I said I would do it for him online.
Normalcy bias is part of it.

I was thinking about it on the way home. Usually I'm the guy who assumes everything is overblown. I go to work in a blizzard, walk home at 4am, etc. I waited out a tornado in a tent when I was 10 (it passed about 1000 yards away). I get where they're coming from.

But I've seen enough to believe that this is the real deal. Do not fuck with this. I'm happy to be wrong. Blame me later.

I'm not hunkering down because I keep reading that the clampdown is surely just days away. Every time shelter-in-place seems imminent, I make another supply run because it could be the last one. Every time I read that it will last for months, not weeks, I fear that I'm not prepared.

Maybe I read too much.

wonderpug · Post by **wonderpug** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:00 pm

Kraken wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:55 pm I'm not hunkering down because I keep reading that the clampdown is surely just days away. Every time shelter-in-place seems imminent, I make another supply run because it could be the last one. Every time I read that it will last for months, not weeks, I fear that I'm not prepared.

Maybe I read too much.

All the US shelter in places so far have still allowed for grocery/med runs, I believe.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:13 pm

wonderpug wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:00 pmAll the US shelter in places so far have still allowed for grocery/med runs, I believe.

Yes. Everything you (collective) are doing now is to minimize risk of going out when you don't need to.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:14 pm

Can Smart Thermometers Track the Spread of the Coronavirus?

A company that uses internet-connected thermometers to predict the spread of the flu says it is tracking the coronavirus in real time — something that had been impossible, given the lack of testing for the disease.

Kinsa Health has sold or given away more than a million smart thermometers to households in which two million people reside, and thus can record fevers almost as soon as consumers experience them.

For the last few years, Kinsa’s interactive maps have accurately predicted the spread of flu around the United States about two weeks before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s own surveillance tool, the weekly FluView tracker.

Normally, Mr. Singh said, the company submits its data to peer-reviewed medical journals. But because of the national emergency, it will post its maps and data Friday on medRxiv, an online repository of medical articles.

The latest data will be available on Friday on a new website, healthweather.us, he said.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 pm

We have a huge biomedical industry but no one could figure this out? What is wrong with our country?

https://twitter.com/DefenseOne/status/1 ... 5091180545