Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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GungHo
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by GungHo »

Dogstar wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:30 am This seems fine.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/sta ... 82593?s=21


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So yeah, go halfsies on both. F up the economy by telling everyone to social distance and sorta, kinda close some stuff...but not really. Then for real close stuff just long enough to scare the shit out of everyone (but not long enough to actually defeat the virus) only to go 'back to normal' because your re-election is at stake and have the virus come roaring back.

Pick the worst of every available option..how very trump
OR
cry in a corner that the world has come to a point where you have to pay for imaginary shit.

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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Daehawk »

I noticed airports are still open for domestic use. What good is that? I mean if Bob in Montana is doing his best not to get it and Sue from New York flys in for some get away time and is infected then what good is all that Bob is doing to stay safe? Plus packing people on airplanes to fly them around the country doesn't seem sane.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Paingod »

My first take on this today was NPR's story about the $450B "freebie" Republicans want to give big businesses with no strings. Warren was on with them begging people to think about what that means and how it won't apply to actual workers. The last thing we need right now is to dump cash into already vastly deep pockets. She repeated that all the Democrats want are assurances (in the bill) that this cash can ONLY be applied to things that benefit the vast majority of workers - payroll, unemployment, etc - and can't be used to kill unions, pad executive bonuses, or be used for stock buybacks.

I'm loving that the GOP Senate has been crippled and can't flush this through without Democrats. I hope McConnell has an aneurysm while he's at the podium screeching that everyone needs to stop playing chicken. Warren very pointedly mentioned that that blade cuts both ways. Democrats aren't holding this up. They just want it fair. If it's getting held up, it's because the GOP can't play nice.

I had someone posit this weekend that we may be sliding towards the next Great Depression. He doubted that printing money by the trillion would go unnoticed in the economy and expects hyperinflation to strike, and with everyone being out of work for an untold amount of time, shit's going to get bad fast. He was a more old-school Republican, disgusted by Trump. I don't have an opinion on it as macroeconomics really isn't a strong suit for me.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Holman »

Trump knows that keeping Americans safe will hurt his re-election, but we're a sacrifice he's willing to make.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by El Guapo »

It's also absurd that Congress hasn't yet put in provisions for remote voting.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

Paingod wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 amI had someone posit this weekend that we may be sliding towards the next Great Depression. He doubted that printing money by the trillion would go unnoticed in the economy and expects hyperinflation to strike, and with everyone being out of work for an untold amount of time, shit's going to get bad fast.
This is for once a legitimate concern. During the 2008 crisis right-wing economists were bleating about this. They were dead wrong. It was a lack of credit/cash causing a problem because capacity was still good. If everyone is out of actual cash then the engine locks up because there is no oil (in the form of cash) to keep the engine spinning.

In this case, capacity has flat-lined. If you drop in tons of cash then the dollars will chase limited supply and drive up prices (demand for limited supplies drives up prices). We are seeing this in medical supplies for instance already. However, we still have a series of cash flows required to keep the economy from collapsing. House payments, services, etc. Money needs to be injected there but then it could chase those diminishing services. It'll be tough to keep inflation at bay in this environment. However that'll be somewhat offset because the multiplier will drop. The multiplier being how many times the same dollar turns over in the economy. Right now it'll go to the bond holder...and sit there...so some dollars will chase diminishing goods and services potentially driving up prices in parts of the economy that survive. In other parts of the economy there can be no stimulus effect and they'll be flat lined. It's a huge problem that no one really has a good answer to. This is a whole new problem set.
He was a more old-school Republican, disgusted by Trump. I don't have an opinion on it as macroeconomics really isn't a strong suit for me.
I have a minor in economics and have followed the topic over the years. I'm not going to get deep into ISLM models but understand it enough to see where this could go.
Last edited by malchior on Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Holman »

God. Trump's Twitter feed.

He spent all night attacking the press, Biden, Dems, China, and even the World Health Organization.

He also attacked Fox News for its new "political correctness," which in context appears to be its turn towards taking the virus seriously.

He retweeted a lot of asslickers, especially those calling for protecting the economy against extreme measures.

He definitely appears to be preparing the way for a pivot against protective measures. Obviously he hopes it will bring the markets back up.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Scraper »

Holman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:04 am God. Trump's Twitter feed.

He spent all night attacking the press, Biden, Dems, China, and even the World Health Organization.

He also attacked Fox News for its new "political correctness," which in context appears to be its turn towards taking the virus seriously.

He retweeted a lot of asslickers, especially those calling for protecting the economy against extreme measures.

He definitely appears to be preparing the way for a pivot against protective measures. Obviously he hopes it will bring the markets back up.
Trump is incapable of doing the right thing and making the right calls. If there is a bad decision to make, he will make it.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:04 am God. Trump's Twitter feed.

He spent all night attacking the press, Biden, Dems, China, and even the World Health Organization.

He also attacked Fox News for its new "political correctness," which in context appears to be its turn towards taking the virus seriously.

He retweeted a lot of asslickers, especially those calling for protecting the economy against extreme measures.

He definitely appears to be preparing the way for a pivot against protective measures. Obviously he hopes it will bring the markets back up.
The protective measures are almost certainly bad for Trump. The first-order effects include an economic shutdown that's likely to cause him massive political damage in the fall. Arguably his best case scenario would be virtually no protective measures with the hopes that economic activity mostly continues (at least through November) plus a wish and a prayer that the disease isn't as bad as feared (or at least that it's mostly over and trending up in the fall).

I wouldn't at all be shocked if he's pretty clearly calling for a return to normal behavior soon. Though it's still shocking that he's bungled testing and medical supplies so badly, as those would have positive effects for him overall (though I think the testing issue is because he was focused on avoiding negative media stories around the number of cases).
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by El Guapo »

Are there any election / protection or vote by mail provisions in the coronavirus bill? I haven't heard anything about that, and I'm guessing not, but it really should be a high priority for Democrats. I worry a lot about election interference in the fall, and about voting restrictions that may well get imposed under the justification of public safety. If Democrats can at least mitigate the actual public safety threat from voting, that would go a long way.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Dogstar »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:11 am I wouldn't at all be shocked if he's pretty clearly calling for a return to normal behavior soon. Though it's still shocking that he's bungled testing and medical supplies so badly, as those would have positive effects for him overall (though I think the testing issue is because he was focused on avoiding negative media stories around the number of cases).
From a theoretical standpoint (albeit looking at a decision with potentially horrendous real world consequences), it's going to be interesting to see how many states get onboard with Trump ordering them to lift a lockdown, the pivot of Republicans away from federalism, and all that follows in terms of who gets to win (and how).

I wouldn't have picked "pandemic response" as remotely likely to potentially fragment society as opposed to a pandemic itself, but here we are.

Edit: Hopefully, it doesn't go this route.
https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status ... 30246?s=20
Last edited by Dogstar on Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

Scraper wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:07 am
Holman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:04 am God. Trump's Twitter feed.

He spent all night attacking the press, Biden, Dems, China, and even the World Health Organization.

He also attacked Fox News for its new "political correctness," which in context appears to be its turn towards taking the virus seriously.

He retweeted a lot of asslickers, especially those calling for protecting the economy against extreme measures.

He definitely appears to be preparing the way for a pivot against protective measures. Obviously he hopes it will bring the markets back up.
Trump is incapable of doing the right thing and making the right calls. If there is a bad decision to make, he will make it.
It isn't that he is incapable of making the right call. He'll sometimes make the right call. But only if it is straightforward and simple. He thinks every fix is simple and obvious. Close a border. Ban a country. Fixed. It was decisive and easy. Anything complex is where he falls apart immediately. He doesn't have the vision or the patience to allow other experts to build a solution. He wants to be in the center of it all and disrupts all complex activity. So the axiom should be if there is a simple, obvious fix he'll get that right. Anything else you're fucked. This is massively complex therefore the disaster we are seeing.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by El Guapo »

Dogstar wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:11 am I wouldn't at all be shocked if he's pretty clearly calling for a return to normal behavior soon. Though it's still shocking that he's bungled testing and medical supplies so badly, as those would have positive effects for him overall (though I think the testing issue is because he was focused on avoiding negative media stories around the number of cases).
From a theoretical standpoint (albeit looking at a decision with potentially horrendous real world consequences), it's going to be interesting to see how many states get onboard with Trump ordering them to lift a lockdown, the pivot of Republicans away from federalism, and all that follows in terms of who gets to win (and how).

I wouldn't have picked "pandemic response" as remotely likely to potentially fragment society as opposed to a pandemic itself, but here we are.

Edit: Hopefully, it doesn't go this route.
https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status ... 30246?s=20
The wild card is that this is going to be thrown off once people start dying in significant numbers.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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I'm beginning to be of the mind that Trump wants to actually kill off his constituents. The people who hate him are taking more precautions, and there will be more of them to vote come November.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:30 amThe wild card is that this is going to be thrown off once people start dying in significant numbers.
Unhappy thought. We are about a third of the way (~100/day) to levels we see in bad flu years (~300/day). We'll probably be there next week if things keep accelerating the way they are. After that this whole story falls apart but we'll be soon two or three weeks further into the crisis. Other headwinds will be the massive gas lighting that'll occur and his dipshit base literally dying to go along with him.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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malchior wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:34 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:30 amThe wild card is that this is going to be thrown off once people start dying in significant numbers.
Unhappy thought. We are about a third of the way (~100/day) to levels we see in bad flu years (~300/day). We'll probably be there next week if things keep accelerating the way they are. After that this whole story falls apart but we'll be soon two or three weeks further into the crisis. Other headwinds will be the massive gas lighting that'll occur and his dipshit base literally dying to go along with him.
I'm also anticipating "they're not real Americans / they don't count / that's what you get for being a sanctuary city"-type messaging when and if NYC becomes a major outbreak center (which seems to be where things are heading).
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Defiant »

NYC emergency room visits and hospitalizations due to influenza-like illness and Pneumonia (compared to prior years) up to several days ago.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... llance.pdf
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Holman »

Trump's best hope is for the story to become one of contrast between Blue and Red governors over which states remain locked-down and which have re-opened in the name of "freedom."

The question is whether Red governors will be willing to play Trump's game and take the heat when they run out of hospital beds.

(I was talking to my-friend-the-epidemiologist the other day, and the crisis he expects is the collapse of rural hospital systems.)
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

Defiant wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:56 am NYC emergency room visits and hospitalizations due to influenza-like illness and Pneumonia (compared to prior years) up to several days ago.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... llance.pdf
That's...bad. Unfortunately evidence that the predictions were right. I expect any of the responses above to minimize it. :(
Holman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:59 am(I was talking to my-friend-the-epidemiologist the other day, and the crisis he expects is the collapse of rural hospital systems.)
I already saw talk that the rural hospitals are raising the alarm since they expect the same.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by pr0ner »

Holman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:59 am Trump's best hope is for the story to become one of contrast between Blue and Red governors over which states remain locked-down and which have re-opened in the name of "freedom."

The question is whether Red governors will be willing to play Trump's game and take the heat when they run out of hospital beds.

(I was talking to my-friend-the-epidemiologist the other day, and the crisis he expects is the collapse of rural hospital systems.)
There's some irony there as some of the most proactive governors (DeWine, Hogan) in terms of locking things down are Republicans.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by raydude »

I started tweeting to Trump's twitter feed to "Show us the way" and #pleaseEatOut
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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A military approach to healthcare. That might work.

I can't wait to see Trump try and take credit for this and/or find a way to screw it up.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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Amy Klobuchar's husband has coronavirus, was throwing up blood and is now hospitalized and on oxygen.

I wonder how many serious cases / hospitalizations we're going to wind up with among senior leadership figures.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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I would say at the top of my list of worries now is that Trump is going to loosen all economic / activity restrictions as much as he is able, and then either hope that the economy is ok through the fall, or use the resulting death and chaos to justify antidemocratic measures to stay in power if the economy is bad.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/12 ... 5485170688
One of the things that has vexed some White House officials is how reactive their own briefings have been to Cuomo's, who sets the tone and who holds his early in the day.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Holman »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 49536?s=20
Trump [shouting] wrote:THIS IS WHY WE NEED BORDERS!
I'm trying to understand what he's thinking here. Does he believe the virus snuck into the USA without a passport? Does he believe immigrants carry the virus in ways that US citizens returning from abroad somehow don't?

Does he want a Fortress America where no one enters and no one leaves?
El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:36 am I would say at the top of my list of worries now is that Trump is going to loosen all economic / activity restrictions as much as he is able, and then either hope that the economy is ok through the fall, or use the resulting death and chaos to justify antidemocratic measures to stay in power if the economy is bad.
Yep. He's absolutely going to do that if he can. I don't think anything is beyond possibility now.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

Holman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:52 amI'm trying to understand what he's thinking here. Does he believe the virus snuck into the USA without a passport? Does he believe immigrants carry the virus in ways that US citizens returning from abroad somehow don't?

Does he want a Fortress America where no one enters and no one leaves?
Example number I don't even know anymore as to why this man is not only a moron, but is in fact dangerous. Make no mistake - he's using this as a way to whip up white nationalism and push his border agenda. In theory, if we were doing random sampling at the border and testing people as they were arriving, you might be able to detect diseases coming in and take more aggressive action. The answer here is testing/sampling/monitoring. It's not simply close all borders to outsiders - which is insane.
El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:36 am I would say at the top of my list of worries now is that Trump is going to loosen all economic / activity restrictions as much as he is able, and then either hope that the economy is ok through the fall, or use the resulting death and chaos to justify antidemocratic measures to stay in power if the economy is bad.
What I've seen published is that he's going to begrudgingly agree to aggressive restrictions on business and operational activities, i.e. "social distancing" at a minimum. However ~15 days from now when it's all over (spoiler: it will just be ramping up 15 days), he thinks America will be back open for business.

I also think that's part of the reason they're dragging their feet in Congress (the GOP) - they truly believe this will be all done in early April so the poors can just deal with it and it's really the businesses need money to keep the stock market going. Their whole philosophy seems to be based in this idea that we have a short term problem. Based on the reports/opinions I'm seeing this morning, it's looking like social distancing / lock down might only work if we do it for ~3 months - and that's just to get us through the medical surge. We're buying time right now and hoping we can ramp up production on PPE and ventilators so when wave 2 strikes, we're better prepared to address it.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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If you want to know why NY's numbers are going up so much...

Gov. Cuomo slams 'arrogant and selfish' New Yorkers for going outside, warns 80% of the state will be infected in NINE month crisis and orders FOUR hospitals to be built at Javits Center
Speaking to reporters at a press conference, Cuomo described his horror at visiting New York City on Saturday and seeing parks crowded with people who have been instructed to limit contact as much as possible.
(I mean, they'd still go up even if everyone sheltered in place, but these people are tools.)
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

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El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:26 am Amy Klobuchar's husband has coronavirus, was throwing up blood and is now hospitalized and on oxygen.

I wonder how many serious cases / hospitalizations we're going to wind up with among senior leadership figures.
That's terrifying. He's about the same age as me and many of us here. My son is still coughing and low fever, but hasn't progressed worse. Waiting on his test results. I was exposed to him 5 days ago when he came home sick from college.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Skinypupy »

Defiant wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:05 pm If you want to know why NY's numbers are going up so much...

Gov. Cuomo slams 'arrogant and selfish' New Yorkers for going outside, warns 80% of the state will be infected in NINE month crisis and orders FOUR hospitals to be built at Javits Center
Speaking to reporters at a press conference, Cuomo described his horror at visiting New York City on Saturday and seeing parks crowded with people who have been instructed to limit contact as much as possible.
(I mean, they'd still go up even if everyone sheltered in place, but these people are tools.)
A few hundred LDS Missionaries came home last night...and they were met by huge crowds of people at the SL Airport. I'm guessing there will be multiple cases that come out of this. Idiots.

Utah Lt Gov was pissed.

https://twitter.com/SpencerJCox/status/ ... updates%2F
Really disappointed in the behavior we saw from missionary families at the SLC airport tonight. I get it, I’ve been there (and still have a child serving), but this is unacceptable. In a time of shared sacrifice, we must do better to save lives. #SocialDistancing
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by noxiousdog »

Pyperkub wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:38 pm
Zarathud wrote:It’s not about free money. It’s about the cost of getting shut down by government action to serve public health. By that measure, Daehawk, you should get NOTHING because you don’t have a business, don’t work, and don’t often get out of the house.

If your only inconvenience is not getting toilet paper, count your blessings. People are getting fired, getting sick, and even dying. Staying home isn’t a sacrifice until you no longer have a job.
Since the fed rate is effectively zero, corporations can get zero interest loans to stay in business. People can't.
It doesn't work like that. If you aren't a bank, your rates are going up due to economic uncertainty. The fed can only control overnight rates.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by El Guapo »

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:59 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:38 pm
Zarathud wrote:It’s not about free money. It’s about the cost of getting shut down by government action to serve public health. By that measure, Daehawk, you should get NOTHING because you don’t have a business, don’t work, and don’t often get out of the house.

If your only inconvenience is not getting toilet paper, count your blessings. People are getting fired, getting sick, and even dying. Staying home isn’t a sacrifice until you no longer have a job.
Since the fed rate is effectively zero, corporations can get zero interest loans to stay in business. People can't.
It doesn't work like that. If you aren't a bank, your rates are going up due to economic uncertainty. The fed can only control overnight rates.
Yeah, the Fed only loans to banks, not businesses. Banks who then loan to businesses have to worry about the businesses going bankrupt, so have to raise rates generally to make up for the increased likelihood of failed loans.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

What an asshole.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1242133286312382470
New Rand Paul statement: “For those who want to criticize me for lack of quarantine, realize that if the rules on testing had been followed to a tee, I would never have been tested and would still be walking around the halls of the Capitol.”

“The current guidelines would not have called for me to get tested nor quarantined. It was my extra precaution, out of concern for my damaged lung, that led me to get tested,” Paul said. “The broader the testing and the less finger-pointing we have, the better.”
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Daehawk »

If the states cant control their population I wouldn't be surprised if they receive no funding or medical equipment. They dont deserve it the way they act. If we can stay in and try to stay safe then why should they receive help when they do this and end up cutting help to us?

Crowds packed California beaches despite shelter in place order
Crowds descended on California beaches, hiking trails and parks over the weekend in open defiance of a state order to shelter in place and avoid close contact with others.
Idiots..too dumb for everyone's good.


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stessier
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

That article is light on details.

One company has announced they have doubled their production and going 24/7 were up to 100 million masks a month. How is the act going to improve on that?
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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

stessier wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:24 pm
That article is light on details.

One company has announced they have doubled their production and going 24/7 were up to 100 million masks a month. How is the act going to improve on that?
It is the summation of other articles. You need to dig in to get the big picture. The idea is that as this ramps up there will be shortages of medical supplies all across the country. Maybe a company that already makes a product says they can ramp up to x amount per month but they have no way of knowing what 50 states demand is going to be. The Federal government could coordinate that communication instead of having every manufacturer have to plug into the demand across 50 states directly. At the highest level the DPA is tool to build coordination and guidance from raw material to end state product at a strategic level. It is *badly* needed.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

malchior wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:34 pm
stessier wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:24 pm
That article is light on details.

One company has announced they have doubled their production and going 24/7 were up to 100 million masks a month. How is the act going to improve on that?
It is the summation of other articles. You need to dig in to get the big picture. The idea is that as this ramps up there will be shortages of medical supplies all across the country. Maybe a company that already makes a product says they can ramp up to x amount per month but they have no way of knowing what 50 states demand is going to be. The Federal government could coordinate that communication instead of having every manufacturer have to plug into the demand across 50 states directly. At the highest level the DPA is tool to build coordination and guidance from raw material to end state product at a strategic level. It is *badly* needed.
It is not a summation of anything and if it intends to be, it sucks. It makes unsubstantiated claims and does nothing to explain it's thesis - merely says this needs to happen. It belongs in your Death of the 4th estate thread.
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