[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Jeff V]

My job is considered essential so I will still be working, albeit reduced hours, regardless of shelter in place orders. Looking at activity in my neighborhood, I might be the only one still working.

Same here except replace "reduced hours" with "extra (unpaid) hours."

One of my minions today was telling me of pressure from one of our plants in Indiana (the one that prints all of the census mail you get) for many people to WFH, most over 55 who consider their jobs non-essential. I told him that "non-essential" probably isn't a tag you want on your job description once this shitstorm passes and the company is forced to contract to a size proportionate to reduced revenue.

[Anonymous Bosch]

That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.

Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy."

[Smoove_B]

As you can imagine, I've been doing quite a bit of reading in the last few weeks. I have seen neither one of those two names coming up in my circles, so I'll take a look. What I have noticed is that professional epidemiologists (of which I am not) are starting to get genuinely angry at all the armchair epidemiology happening and the fact that people in related or public-health adjacent fields (or sometimes with just a Dr. in front of their name) are giving interviews or articles to major news organizations about epidemiological principles as they relate to outbreaks and population-level disease control.

EDIT: One of the people I do follow (Dr. Ali Khan) had this to say about the article earlier today on social media:

It is easy to get in an echo chamber of perspective that is self-reinforcing. Plus I am a fan of Fringe. Here is a view from a Nobel Laureate without comment. Although I look forward to reading yours.

I'm actually waiting for Dr. Khan to write something as he's been rather vocal in his general frustration as to how this is being reported on

[hitbyambulance]

Gov. (and former presidential candidate) Inslee just formalized the 'stay home' order for WA state

[malchior]

That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.

Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy."

Biophysicist. Not a Medical Doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not an expert in that field at all. Why listen to the experts when we can find an expert in something else that says what we want to believe and lean on those credentials. That is solid science.

[Anonymous Bosch]

That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.

Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy."

Biophysicist. Not a Medical Doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not an expert in that field at all. Why listen to the experts when we can find an expert in something else that says what we want to believe and lean on those credentials. That is solid science.

So what? You're free to believe whatever you like. But Levitt's forecast of Chinese deaths from COVID-19 was pretty damn accurate, so one can but hope his prediction of slowed growth in other nations also holds up.

[malchior]

That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.

Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy."

Biophysicist. Not a Medical Doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not an expert in that field at all. Why listen to the experts when we can find an expert in something else that says what we want to believe and lean on those credentials. That is solid science.

So what? You're free to believe whatever you like. But Levitt's forecast of Chinese deaths from COVID-19 was pretty damn accurate, so one can but hope his prediction of slowed growth in other nations also holds up.

Hope away. It's pretty likely he just got lucky or the data was inaccurate. I'd love to see his model account for South Korea vs. Italy vs. France vs. the US which all used totally different controls.

[hitbyambulance]

my dad was convinced that Minnesota was going to turn the corner by next week based on some incomplete testing data. i did my best to extinguish that hope.

[Skinypupy]

Utah just closed schools until May 1.

[malchior]

my dad was convinced that Minnesota was going to turn the corner by next week based on some incomplete testing data. i did my best to extinguish that hope.

A lot of people want to snatch at hope. I get it but it is irresponsible until we know more. There are people who are willing to take on a lot of risk that might end other people's lives and that is just not right.

[hitbyambulance]

in good news, lost about five pounds in the past week. i've gone on the ration diet...

[Jeff V]

in good news, lost about five pounds in the past week. i've gone on the ration diet...

Food is still plentiful here. the foods stores are running out of are mostly the foods we shouldn't be eating anyway. I have learned to wipe with fewer squares, though.

[Daehawk]

Deaths today

Italy - 600+
Spain 465+
UK - 50

They said the UK is exactly mirroring Italy of 2 weeks ago.

[dbt1949]

I was all ready for anthrax. I had plenty of cipro saved up but no, it has to be a lousy virus caused by people who eat bat soup or something. Or was it having sex with monkies? I forget.

[stessier]

The NFL had games even when they couldn't play with 'real' players or 'real' officials so I don't think they'll cancel the season. They'll want to leave the playoffs and Super Bowl schedule as is, so my bet is the season starts later than previously planned, possibly with no preseason or a drastically shortened one.

Didn't want to clutter up the NFL thread.

I agree that is what they want. We all want that. I don't think that is what they are going to get.

Just to play out how that would work - I haven't seen anybody suggesting we are going to be at the herd immunity stage of this thing by September (unless we pull down all the restrictions and just let the infection run it's course). So without that, we aren't going to be letting 80k people gather in a group. So if there are games, they would be in empty stadiums.

But to even get to games, you have to have training camps and practices - which again involve large groups of people that you're going to have to be comfortable with gathering. Additionally, you're going to have some very highly paid people having to be comfortable with whatever risk they are taking for both their current year and future earnings (agents aren't going to want to risk their players). Do you really think we'll be there by September?

Even if all that gets worked out, what happens if a player tests positive in training camp? Does the whole team go in quarantine for two weeks? Would an owner sign off on his team competing with that kind of disadvantage? Worse, what happens if a players test positive during the season? Does the team they are playing against go into quarantine as well as the other teams they've played for the last 14 days? And then all the teams they've played against? The league would grind to a halt.

It's the same reason I don't see any college sports happening this fall - there's no way you won't have a positive test during the season leading to the quarantining of whole teams for weeks. And it's even worse in college where you're dealing with kids who will want to take the risks of getting the virus and playing but with universities on the hook for the liabilities. All it takes is one player ending up on a ventilator to shut the whole thing down.

[Formix]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

[malchior]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

It comes and goes in the discussion moment to moment it seems.

[Paingod]

I can't help medical professionals much, but was wondering this morning if I should take the face mask I use for woodworking and face shield that goes with it and donate them to a hospital. It can use a variety of air filters, and I can't imagine the face shield wouldn't stop a spatter of bodily fluids. If they can find filters that work for it vs. the virus, it might help a doctor.

Are we at a point where civilians who don't need their assets right now should be considering donating them?

[LawBeefaroni]

Hospitals that are accepting supply donations are only accepting new, factory sealed PPE at the point, as far as I know. They cannot take used equipment.

[stessier]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

Indeed - which is why we won't be there by September.

But even if it mutates, I thought the idea/hope was previous exposure to another strain may provide some limited resistance.

[Paingod]

Hospitals that are accepting supply donations are only accepting new, factory sealed PPE at the point, as far as I know. They cannot take used equipment.

Gotcha. I suppose I'll keep it on standby until we hit a pants-shitting shortage when all standards drop and hope that doesn't happen.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

But even if it mutates, I thought the idea/hope was previous exposure to another strain may provide some limited resistance.

IANAE (epidemiologist), but I think it depends on the section of the virus RNA that mutates. If the mutation occurs on the section that codes for receptor binding, then past exposure may not be all that much help. In general, most mutations are neutral, meaning they don't change the function of that stretch of DNA (or in this case, RNA). In that case, you can have mutations that won't affect how the virus works and past exposure should still be beneficial.

[stessier]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

But even if it mutates, I thought the idea/hope was previous exposure to another strain may provide some limited resistance.

IANAE (epidemiologist), but I think it depends on the section of the virus RNA that mutates. If the mutation occurs on the section that codes for receptor binding, then past exposure may not be all that much help. In general, most mutations are neutral, meaning they don't change the function of that stretch of DNA (or in this case, RNA). In that case, you can have mutations that won't affect how the virus works and past exposure should still be beneficial.

Interesting, thanks.

[stessier]

Olympics are postponed.

Just for clarity, that is one board member's opinion based on a statement the board put out on Sunday and what he knows. There still hasn't been an official statement from the board. He is an incredibly important and influential member, though, so it's likely what he said will happen.

We've also had multiple countries pull out today, so it's as good as done.

Well, now it's official. Postponed about a year.

[Unagi]

A lot of people want to snatch at hope.

I appreciated the irony of you being the author of that remark.

[Unagi]

Gov. (and former presidential candidate) Inslee just formalized the 'stay home' order for WA state

That took wayyyy too long

[Unagi]

I can't help medical professionals much, but was wondering this morning if I should take the face mask I use for woodworking and face shield that goes with it and donate them to a hospital. It can use a variety of air filters, and I can't imagine the face shield wouldn't stop a spatter of bodily fluids. If they can find filters that work for it vs. the virus, it might help a doctor.

Are we at a point where civilians who don't need their assets right now should be considering donating them?

No. They don’t have any systems in place to take in your gear and I believe they would need legal help in avoiding liabilities down the road.

Also. The donation of pots and pans in ww2 (something your comment reminded me of) wasn’t done to collect metal, but more to give people the feeling they were part of the effort.
Not that you didn’t know that, but I do think the shortage of
resources can’t really be addressed by individual donations here either.

[Kasey Chang]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

AFAIK, coronavirus mutates about once a month, and they are using the mutations to track its progression and propagation. But the mutations are relatively minor and does not affect the treatability.

Unlike the flu virus, which mutates MUCH faster, which is why we'll continue to see new flu variants until we make the universal vaccine.

[Unagi]

Olympics are postponed.

Just for clarity, that is one board member's opinion based on a statement the board put out on Sunday and what he knows. There still hasn't been an official statement from the board. He is an incredibly important and influential member, though, so it's likely what he said will happen.

We've also had multiple countries pull out today, so it's as good as done.

Well, now it's official. Postponed about a year.

Who ever is playing this Plague Inc game is a noob.

You never make your virus a big enough threat to shut down the Olympics. Save the DNA for afterwards and then turn up the infection rates.

Although, frankly they are doing a good job. I shouldn’t talk like some expert.

[stessier]

Who ever is playing this Plague Inc game is a noob.

You never make your virus a big enough threat to shut down the Olympics. Save the DNA for afterwards and then turn up the infection rates.

I had a similar reaction over the weekend.

[Kasey Chang]

Taiwan is providing a pretty telling example of how much of a difference it makes to be prepared and proactive at a national level.

Inside Taiwan during COVID-19: How the country kept schools and businesses open throughout pandemic

How they did it is due to a level of government control US would never adopt, unfortunately. They have national health care system and quick linkup with customs and immigration databases at airports. That allowed them to quickly profile arrivals into high risk or low risk people via their declared travel patterns and the low-risk are allowed quick entry through pre-clear. The high-risk people are issued trackers and told to self-quarantine. Furthermore, Taiwan started aggressively testing high-risk populations (again, national health database) and setup both national and later local hotlines to report suspicious symptoms in themselves or neighbors in February or perhaps even earlier.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... erm=030320

[wonderpug]

Who ever is playing this Plague Inc game is a noob.

On a related note, Plague Inc developers are donating $250k to coronavirus cute CURE research. They’re also working on adding a mode where you try to save the world instead of destroying it.

[stessier]

On a related note, Plague Inc developers are donating $250k to coronavirus cute research. They’re also working on adding a mode where you try to save the world instead of destroying it.

I've always said coronavirus had a protein shell that only a mother could love.

[Smoove_B]

AFAIK, coronavirus mutates about once a month, and they are using the mutations to track its progression and propagation. But the mutations are relatively minor and does not affect the treatability.

Unlike the flu virus, which mutates MUCH faster, which is why we'll continue to see new flu variants until we make the universal vaccine.

In case you (or anyone) would like to read about "mutations" and the novel coronavirus.

[Anonymous Bosch]

CDC Says Coronavirus Traces Lasted 17 Days on Cruise Ship, But No Evidence of Transmission Risk

Traces of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus can last longer on some surfaces than previously detected by health authorities, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report released on Monday.

Health officials were able to detect viral RNA on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which had a major coronavirus outbreak earlier this year, up to 17 days after an onboard quarantine of passengers and crew concluded. However, the CDC emphasized that it had no evidence that the remaining traces of the virus posed a risk of new infections.

“SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted,” the CDC wrote in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, citing research conducted by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “... Although these data cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces, further study of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 aboard cruise ships is warranted.”

The CDC reiterated that the virus and the disease it causes, covid-19, “poses a risk for rapid spread of disease [on cruise ships], causing outbreaks in a vulnerable population, and aggressive efforts are required to contain spread.”

Again, there’s a big difference between detecting traces of a virus after 17 days and finding it remains transmissible after 17 days, and the cramped, indoors quarantine conditions on the Diamond Princess likely contributed the detection of viral traces. Previous research published in the New England Journal of Medicine has only determined that the coronavirus can last up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, and several hours in droplets in the air, where the risk of infection is highest.

[Kraken]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

Indeed - which is why we won't be there by September.

But even if it mutates, I thought the idea/hope was previous exposure to another strain may provide some limited resistance.

There's plenty of conjecture, just no good data to answer that yet. There are some encouraging indications that blood plasma from recovered persons can fight the infection in active cases.

[Formix]

AFAIK, coronavirus mutates about once a month, and they are using the mutations to track its progression and propagation. But the mutations are relatively minor and does not affect the treatability.

Unlike the flu virus, which mutates MUCH faster, which is why we'll continue to see new flu variants until we make the universal vaccine.

In case you (or anyone) would like to read about "mutations" and the novel coronavirus.

Awesome. That's a good read, thanks Smoove. From reading that, it seems (and maybe I'm misunderstanding) that there is no good data to say that there is any mutation so far of a sort that would invalidate any herd immunity, but with mutation, you just never know, but for know it's looking promising.

[Jag]

I thought the herd immunity plan was out the window since we're already seeing mutation?

Indeed - which is why we won't be there by September.

But even if it mutates, I thought the idea/hope was previous exposure to another strain may provide some limited resistance.

There's plenty of conjecture, just no good data to answer that yet. There are some encouraging indications that blood plasma from recovered persons can fight the infection in active cases.

If I end up catching it from my son I'll let you guys bid early on my blood.

[Daehawk]

https://www.bbb.org/scamtracker

Scam tracker from the BBB. On the left box 'SCAM TYPE' choose COVID 19

[Kurth]

That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.

Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy."

Biophysicist. Not a Medical Doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not an expert in that field at all. Why listen to the experts when we can find an expert in something else that says what we want to believe and lean on those credentials. That is solid science.

So what? You're free to believe whatever you like. But Levitt's forecast of Chinese deaths from COVID-19 was pretty damn accurate, so one can but hope his prediction of slowed growth in other nations also holds up.

Hope away. It's pretty likely he just got lucky or the data was inaccurate. I'd love to see his model account for South Korea vs. Italy vs. France vs. the US which all used totally different controls.

Hope . . . malchior eats hope for breakfast!