Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by $iljanus »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:09 am The social distancing culture war has begun via the Atlantic:
This dynamic is playing out in small ways across the country. Bret, a sales representative from Plano, Texas, who asked that I not use his last name, proudly told me how unfazed he and his conservative neighbors were by the threat of an outbreak. In his view, the recent wave of government-mandated lockdowns was a product of panic-mongering in the mainstream media, and he welcomed Trump’s call for businesses to reopen by Easter.

When I asked whether the virus had interfered with his lifestyle, Bret laughed. “Oh, I’m going to the shooting range tomorrow,” he replied.

Was he worried that his friends might disapprove if they found out?

“No,” he told me, “around here, I get much more of people saying, ‘Why don’t you go Saturday so I can go, too?’”

Terry Trahan, a manager at a cutlery store in Lubbock, Texas, acknowledged that a certain “toxic tribalism” was informing people’s attitudes toward the pandemic. “If someone’s a Democrat, they’re gonna say it’s worse,” he told me, “and if someone’s a Republican, they’re gonna say it’s bad, but it’s getting better.”
What's amazing to me is that there's some type of belief that a virus somehow respects party lines or that policy makers are somehow crafting a response designed to specifically target voters in a certain demographic. I'm having a hard time getting into that mindset and not seeing this as a human being problem, but I also acknowledge it's not possible for me to be unbiased in review of information.
I would say to these people go get sick and die already but that would just end up overtaxing the local hospitals and they'll probably spread it around before they kick off.

My patience with this sort of closed minded tribalism is gone. Even the Corona spring break kid saw the error of his ways.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by wonderpug »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:17 am
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:09 am The social distancing culture war has begun via the Atlantic:
In his view, the recent wave of government-mandated lockdowns was a product of panic-mongering in the mainstream media, and he welcomed Trump’s call for businesses to reopen by Easter.
Wonder how he's going to cognitively absorb Trump's pivot to April 30?
Trump is so wise and smart, he knows what's best and he's keeping us safe. Effing liberals would've killed us all if they got their way opening up the country by Easter. Laws Obama put into place were going to make us go back to work on Easter. Liberals in NYC are stealing our hospital supplies and not even using them.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Unagi »

You are really pretty good at that
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by RunningMn9 »

Smoove_B wrote:
Terry Trahan, a manager at a cutlery store in Lubbock, Texas, acknowledged that a certain “toxic tribalism” was informing people’s attitudes toward the pandemic. “If someone’s a Democrat, they’re gonna say it’s worse,” he told me, “and if someone’s a Republican, they’re gonna say it’s bad, but it’s getting better.”
Toxic tribalism? One of those groups is listening to the experts. One of those groups is not. There is toxic tribalism alright, but it’s one-sided on this topic.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
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Make up bags of change
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Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

What's happening in Germany?
With more than 63,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of March 30, Germany is one of the countries worst-affected by the pandemic, according to official statistics.

But only 560 people known to be suffering from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus have died there, putting Germany’s case fatality rate at just 0.9%. That gives Germany one of the lowest rates in the world, making it an outlier compared to places like Italy, where 11.0% of confirmed patients have died from the disease, and even the U.S., which has a rate of 1.8%.
So what are they doing?
According to experts, Germany’s case fatality rate is so low due to its widespread testing.
If only we had some magical way to see this coming back in January and do testing here in the United States. I will repeat this until it happens - the only way we get out of this mess and move forwards is with testing. Without data, we cannot do anything else but shelter in place.

But how did Germany test so many people?
Back in January, Germany became one of the first countries to develop a reliable method for testing for COVID-19. Unburdened by a restrictive central regulatory body, since healthcare is administered at the state level in Germany, private companies moved quickly to mass produce those tests, meaning they could be rolled out rapidly to the population.
Thanks Obama!
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by GungHo »

Defiant wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:01 am
GungHo wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:10 am That and his quote in like 1988 where he said if he ran for president, he'd run as a Republican bc they were dumb enough to believe anything.
That quote is false
So he lied about that too?!?

😜

Thank you for the correction. One of those things that just sounded so likely I didn't bother to check. I wonder if this is how misinformation spreads? :oops:

Also I am shocked, SHOCKED, to hear residents in Texas are going to the gun range right now.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:36 pm What's happening in Germany?
With more than 63,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of March 30, Germany is one of the countries worst-affected by the pandemic, according to official statistics.

But only 560 people known to be suffering from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus have died there, putting Germany’s case fatality rate at just 0.9%. That gives Germany one of the lowest rates in the world, making it an outlier compared to places like Italy, where 11.0% of confirmed patients have died from the disease, and even the U.S., which has a rate of 1.8%.
So what are they doing?
According to experts, Germany’s case fatality rate is so low due to its widespread testing.
If only we had some magical way to see this coming back in January and do testing here in the United States. I will repeat this until it happens - the only way we get out of this mess and move forwards is with testing. Without data, we cannot do anything else but shelter in place.

But how did Germany test so many people?
Back in January, Germany became one of the first countries to develop a reliable method for testing for COVID-19. Unburdened by a restrictive central regulatory body, since healthcare is administered at the state level in Germany, private companies moved quickly to mass produce those tests, meaning they could be rolled out rapidly to the population.
Thanks Obama!


Does testing save enough lives to lower the mortality rate significantly or do increased tests just increase the denominator in the mortality rate calculation? I mean I would hope the former but how does that work? More positive tests means more serious quarantine and distancing?
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

Testing helps us to see the true CFR by adjusting the denominator, yes. It also helps guide policy as we can see if specific communities/regions have high circulating levels. Testing helps slow spread by helping us to justify why shelter-in-place orders should continue - because we know where the virus is. If enough tests were available, you could start testing contacts of the known cases and better justify at-home orders for specific people.

Ultimately, testing is how we're going to figure out who's already been exposed and has protection. We're absolutely flying blind with all this and it's extremely frustrating knowing we could have been doing something in January and we're still not fully up to speed 3 months later.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

I saw some reports the Germans had enough data to protect at-risk populations. For instance, something like 6% of Germans are 80+ but within the confirmed cases 80+ only has a 3% representation because they knew how to isolate them and did more contact tracing, etc. to protect them.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

Lots of math and charts, but the overview provided by Laurie Garrett is solid - she continues to be a treasure and one of the voices I trust.

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/stat ... 6975503362
The report that convinced #Trump to back off his "pack the pews on Easter" scheme to live #COVID19 restrictions was done by @IHME_UW . Here is a quick thread analysing the study.
In short, so much (I can't emphasize that enough) depends on federal response (and local compliance) *right now*.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:56 pm Lots of math and charts, but the overview provided by Laurie Garrett is solid - she continues to be a treasure and one of the voices I trust.

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/stat ... 6975503362
The report that convinced #Trump to back off his "pack the pews on Easter" scheme to live #COVID19 restrictions was done by @IHME_UW . Here is a quick thread analysing the study.
In short, so much (I can't emphasize that enough) depends on federal response (and local compliance) *right now*.
If I read those charts right, does the Excess Bed Demand mean most of the country won't have a bed shortage? Which is good, but also fodder for the people who want to open everything back up.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Defiant »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:56 pm Lots of math and charts, but the overview provided by Laurie Garrett is solid
"But"?

Math and charts is catnip for me and probably others. :wub:
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by El Guapo »

It is funny (ish) to me how given that the early estimates for the pandemic were 1 million+ U.S. dead, seeing estimates of 60k - 200k suddenly seems not so bad. Seems like a walk in the park, now.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

stessier wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:02 pmIf I read those charts right, does the Excess Bed Demand mean most of the country won't have a bed shortage? Which is good, but also fodder for the people who want to open everything back up.
I think so. This model suggests an overall surge of ~275K cases that would otherwise not exist (nationwide) and the demand to treat those cases will be in specific, more densely populated areas.

A few of the people I follow are wondering if eventually we'll start seeing the typical public health risk factors (poor/immigrant/minorities) starting to percolate out as contributing risk factors as well. Normally women and children would be in that pool, which completes the sad tale of US preventative healthcare overall. Generally the initial reaction of most of the people I follow has been that this is going to disproportionately impact densely populated areas more significantly - not only because of ease of spread but also because of the difficulty of social distancing needed to help prevent/slow down spread.

My overall take away from this re-affirms my earliest feelings on this - it's going to be a long summer.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:11 pm It is funny (ish) to me how given that the early estimates for the pandemic were 1 million+ U.S. dead, seeing estimates of 60k - 200k suddenly seems not so bad. Seems like a walk in the park, now.
COVID-19 will be Trump's Vietnam. Not bad for someone with debilitating bone spurs.
Math and charts is catnip for me and probably others.
I figured some would like to see the math. It's impressive. :D
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:48 pm Testing helps us to see the true CFR by adjusting the denominator, yes. It also helps guide policy as we can see if specific communities/regions have high circulating levels. Testing helps slow spread by helping us to justify why shelter-in-place orders should continue - because we know where the virus is. If enough tests were available, you could start testing contacts of the known cases and better justify at-home orders for specific people.

Ultimately, testing is how we're going to figure out who's already been exposed and has protection. We're absolutely flying blind with all this and it's extremely frustrating knowing we could have been doing something in January and we're still not fully up to speed 3 months later.
As of March 25th, we've still tested less than South Korea at under 350,000.

US Pop 327 mil
SK Pop 51 mil

US pop % tested .1% that we know of
SK pop % tested 6.5%

https://khn.org/news/fact-check-trumps- ... -the-mark/

And we need to get some factor above 100%, as we will need to test some people multiple times until we have some sort of antiviral.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

HOPE

https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/12 ... 3809555456
Look at these charts.

We can crush the top of this curve if we ALL do our part. Stay home.

We can do this. We must do this.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

If this is real, I'll wait for the serum test. :shock:

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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by wonderpug »

I really wish they wouldn’t push that picture. Seems like it does more to discourage people from getting tested than it does to encourage stay at home orders.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

It scratches an itch you never knew you had!
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

wonderpug wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:03 pm I really wish they wouldn’t push that picture. Seems like it does more to discourage people from getting tested than it does to encourage stay at home orders.
I haven't heard of anyone trying to avoid the test. Well, except for me right now. :)
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:08 pm It scratches an itch you never knew you had!
I get that itch and it sucks.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Holman »

Penile coronavirus is going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuck.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by RunningMn9 »

stessier wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:56 pm If I read those charts right, does the Excess Bed Demand mean most of the country won't have a bed shortage? Which is good, but also fodder for the people who want to open everything back up.
I read those the opposite way, in that it was tracking demand in excess of supply. I like your way better.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
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Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Zaxxon »

And... I'm out.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by milo »

Seems to be similar to (if not exactly the same as) an influenza swab test. If so, it's not really as bad as it looks (I had a flu swab in February), and it's over in a few seconds. As some doctor pointed out on Twitter, there are plenty of medical tests that are far more invasive and uncomfortable than this one.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:01 pmAnd... I'm out.
Ack - heal quickly!
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by stessier »

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:00 pm
stessier wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:56 pm If I read those charts right, does the Excess Bed Demand mean most of the country won't have a bed shortage? Which is good, but also fodder for the people who want to open everything back up.
I read those the opposite way, in that it was tracking demand in excess of supply. I like your way better.
Despite your quote issues, I think we are looking at it the same way. Take SC at zero percent... To mean that means there will be zero percent above capacity.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Daehawk »

Ummm your sinuses are not in the back of your throat......plus what happens is the cotton falls off back there? Up there? Somewhere in there.

Also that statewide graph. Thats IS statewide so if one region has a bigger outbreak then they are overwhelmed while a different area could still have tons of free beds. I doubt they would ship the sick across the state to get a bed.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

Holman wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:58 pm Penile coronavirus is going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuck.
I'm still monitoring semen, but so far evidence of the virus has only been found in urine, feces, sputum and blood. I will not rest until everyone is fearing semen...again.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

Today in this country is bonkers news. If you hoped to see the 'My Pillow' guy at a WH Covid-19 briefing...your wish has been granted!
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

Was Alex Rodriguez too busy to attend today so it was My-Pillow instead?
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by RunningMn9 »

Smoove_B wrote:
Holman wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:58 pmI'm still monitoring semen
I’ll bet you are.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Smoove_B »

Hey, as far as I know, no OOer got Ebola because of my warnings over semen. I'll maintain a watch for this too. :D

Happy to see more info about the importance of testing happening:
In communities where most coronavirus tests are coming back positive, it's a sign there are many more cases there that haven't been found, say World Health Organization officials in a press conference on Monday.

"If 80-90% of the people test positive, you are probably missing a lot of cases," says Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program.

That's because more positives means the tests are being used mainly to confirm obvious cases, and as a result health authorities are not getting a clear picture on the scope of the epidemic in their area.
If only there was some way we could have seen this coming back in January.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Jeff V »

Testing is only important if timely. Almost a week ago, one of my wife's coworker came down with fever and fatigue. She still has it. What she doesn't have is the test results. If she tests positive, then likely the patient removed because of fever has it and a wave of death can be expected at the nursing home.

And since my wife had contact with her (I did too, but more than 14 days ago), she can be a vector allowing me to happily spread it among the 600 or so that work at the plant I still have to go to every day.
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Daehawk »

Heres some of the news from the My Pillow crap. Trump is dumping saving us in the lap of the My Pillow con artist.

As coronavirus death toll rises, Trump gives CEOs a star turn

Internet confused why Trump invited My Pillow owner to public health briefing: ‘Tell me this is a prank’

Trump accused of using coronavirus briefing as corporate advertising spot
Trump invited a lineup of CEOs to applaud him and advertise their companies from a podium bearing the presidential seal in the Rose Garden. It wasn't until they were done congratulating each other that the victims of the disease, and the people fighting it on the front lines, became a focus of Monday's daily White House briefing.

Pillow company founder Michael Lindell, who has donated more than $200,000 to Trump's campaigns and associated committees, praised the president for bringing God back to the public square. Executives from an underwear manufacturer and a defense contractor detailed how their operations are being pointed toward producing medical equipment in accordance with Trump's wishes.
The CEOs at the White House were quick to portray themselves as happy to help.

"We don't need the Defense Production Act to get us to act," Greg Hayes, the chief executive of the defense contractor, in what appeared to be a rebuttal to Trump critics like former Vice President Joe Biden, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, who have pressed the president to use his powers to force companies to make goods and coordinate their distribution to states.
In opening remarks, Trump said that more than one million coronavirus tests have been administered in the U.S. and ticked off a list of shipment destinations for 1,000 more ventilators the Federal Emergency Management Agency is sending to states: 400 to Michigan, 300 to New Jersey, 150 each to Illinois and Connecticut, and 50 to Louisiana. At one point, he showed off a new testing machine developed by one of the nation's leading medical device companies that the administration says will yield results in 15 minutes or less.
It is unclear why Lindell, a frequent Fox News advertiser and Trump supporter who has faced a series of lawsuits over deceptive marketing and unsupported health claims for his product, would be a key fighter in the epidemic — and commenters on social media promptly weighed in.
Then, in a bizarre gear change, Lindell went into campaign rally mode and referenced the date of Trump’s election. “God gave us grace on November 8, 2016, to change the course we were on,” he said. “God had been taken out of our schools and lives, a nation had turned its back on God.

“I encourage you to use this time at home to get back in the word, read our Bibles and spend time with our families.”
Trump told reporters: “I did not know he was going to do that, but he’s a friend of mine and I do appreciate it. Thank you, Mike.”
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Defiant
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Defiant »

The Hungarian Parliament has voted by 137 to 53 to accept the government's request for the power to rule by decree during the coronavirus emergency.

The law contains no time limit.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52095500
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Blackhawk
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by Blackhawk »

The nose swab isn't all that bad. I haven't had one, but that's the same route they used to shove a camera down my nose to inspect my tongue cancer every few weeks. If you've ever sucked in a nose full of pool water, well, it's kind of like that.
What doesn't kill me makes me stranger.
GungHo
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by GungHo »

Defiant wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:19 pm
The Hungarian Parliament has voted by 137 to 53 to accept the government's request for the power to rule by decree during the coronavirus emergency.

The law contains no time limit.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52095500
Well....at least we don't live there.

But yeah, terrifying.
OR
cry in a corner that the world has come to a point where you have to pay for imaginary shit.

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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus/Superbug Thread: It's the End of the World as We Know It...

Post by malchior »

Interesting discussion about the CDC's reluctance to recommend wearing face masks generally. I haven't been wearing a mask but I think I will going forward on my grocery runs. Not because I think it'll protect me. Due to the pervasive lack of testing, I don't have any level of confidence about whether I'm spreading it or not.
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