Preview of what's likely coming here to America, by way of what's working in
China:
"Areas where the outbreak was less had movement restrictions removed sooner," she says. "But that didn't mean completely. It meant first they started major factories and started letting those people who work there go back to work so that they could restart their industries."
Movement restrictions – basically orders for people to stay home — are still in place for some areas and some people considered to be high risk.
...
"One of the things that China is doing is while it is relaxing social distancing measures, it's not removing them entirely," Ainslie says. "And it's not removing them haphazardly."
For instance, schools in much of the country remain closed.
What we haven't really started doing yet (and where all my experience is - traditional "shoe leather" epidemiology) is case management:
Cowling says public health officials in China and elsewhere have two sets of tools to contain its outbreak — social distancing and case management. Social distancing makes it harder for the virus to find new people to infect. Case management tracks down cases and potential cases individually and then isolates them – and the virus. China wielded both of these tools aggressively.
I've said it before, but I'll repeat - it's going to be a long, long summer.
What to watch for:
While China is now trying to figure out how to relax social distancing without allowing the virus to come roaring back, this is also a question that European countries and the U.S. hope to address in the coming weeks. But the U.S. may have a harder time doing this than China. Cowling says one problem facing the U.S. is that there are many different outbreaks that are being managed primarily at the state level and might peak at different times.
"It's possible that New York could be coming out of lock down, having got the numbers to a low level. But there are other cities where they're having a lot more infections and it is going to be very difficult to have travel restrictions," Cowling says. "And the worst case scenario is that infections are kind of bouncing around the U.S. And so, the lockdown is relaxed and then infections come back and then you have to lockdown again and nobody wants that to happen. So it really is a urgent question to figure out what's the best way to suppress transmission across the whole of the U.S."