Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:12 am

Kraken wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:27 am How many not-New Yorkers knew anything about Cuomo before 2 weeks ago? I wonder who they polled.

Sorry, it's polls of New Yorkers. eg https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... s-new-york

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:55 am

Kraken wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:27 am How many not-New Yorkers knew anything about Cuomo before 2 weeks ago? I wonder who they polled.

Like I said somewhere else and will probably repeat, because I do that: Americans want a strong leader or a strongman, or at least somebody who plays one on TV. Republicans have one; Democrats don't.

I know it's too early for polls, but FWIW Biden is still leading Trump in polls.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:08 am

Not only that, he's leading Trump in polls and isn't even campaigning. I have a lot of friends saying Trump's got 2020 in the bag, but I haven't heard a good explanation of how considering he's on TV every single day and is still losing to an invisible opponent.

Scraper · Post by **Scraper** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:11 am

YellowKing wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:08 am Not only that, he's leading Trump in polls and isn't even campaigning. I have a lot of friends saying Trump's got 2020 in the bag, but I haven't heard a good explanation of how considering he's on TV every single day and is still losing to an invisible opponent.

Are those friends part of the crowd that loves Trump because he's "stiggin it" to the libs and that's about as far as their political thought goes?

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:31 am

YellowKing wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:08 am Not only that, he's leading Trump in polls and isn't even campaigning. I have a lot of friends saying Trump's got 2020 in the bag, but I haven't heard a good explanation of how considering he's on TV every single day and is still losing to an invisible opponent.

To be fair, every time he opens his pie hole he loses a couple of points vs. a pike of dog shit.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:34 am

It was this month that Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out. It was last month that Trump was acquitted. March 2020 may go down as the longest year on record.

When can we stop thinking about 2020?

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:11 pm

Defiant wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:20 pm Worth pointing out that while Trump's approval has jumped from the mid-40s to the high 40s/low 50s, Cuomo's has jumped from the mid-40s to the 70s or low 80s.

George W. Bush went to 89% during 9/11. Keep that in mind when evaluating Trump's 48%.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:16 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:11 pm
Defiant wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:20 pm Worth pointing out that while Trump's approval has jumped from the mid-40s to the high 40s/low 50s, Cuomo's has jumped from the mid-40s to the 70s or low 80s.
George W. Bush went to 89% during 9/11. Keep that in mind when evaluating Trump's 48%.

And Cuomo's gone to 70%.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:52 pm

https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1246573593447849991

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:57 pm

I think this is a solid prediction:

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/ ... 8357545984

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:12 pm

Good news / bad news. The Q2 GDP collapse is so bad that Trump is now on pace to win -440 electoral college delegates.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/sta ... 2262789121

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:11 pm

Wisconsin governor issues order delaying election until June 9th.

Drawing GOP challenges, unclear whether it will stand. Given the composition of the WI Supreme Court, seems reasonably likely that it will get overturned.

Fun times!

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:35 pm

Fun times indeed. I wonder if it'll go down like Ohio.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:40 pm

It also sounds like the WI GOP's main motivation here is to save an incumbent GOP justice on the WI Supreme Court who is on the ballot tomorrow. Which also seems like another reason why the GOP majority on the court is likely to want to go ahead with the election tomorrow.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:28 pm

It's done. Unsurprisingly they declared it 'essential business'. The GOP is a death cult. Power at all costs.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:26 pm

For extra laughs the Conservative majority in the SCOTUS throws out thousands of WI mail-in ballots. This is an ominous warning for November. We're almost certainly on Hungary's path.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1247301655642681348

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:09 pm

Yup. The electoral consequences of this tomorrow are probably not large in the scheme of things - may help save one conservative justice on the WI Supreme Court. As an omen for November, it's extremely troubling, given that Republicans aren't allowing any steps to be taken in advance to ensure safe voting under coronavirus conditions in November (and they'll have the SCOTUS around then too in order to tailor actual voting to help Republicans).

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:30 pm

https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1247318963501105153

This is pretty depressing. I honestly don't know how we can stop Republicans from using coronavirus to legally steal the election for Trump.

What's sad is that the *good news* in all of this is that the depression that's coming from coronavirus is going to be bad enough that it opens up the possibility of a wave against Trump so large that it will likely become more difficult to steal the election.

gbasden · Post by **gbasden** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:44 am

I'm seriously getting to the torches and pitchforks point, myself. It's shocking me more when Republicans do something that *isn't* brazenly evil these days.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:49 am

The whole thing is shocking because the SCOTUS position is entirely founded on a fact error. The opinion says that the plaintiff didn't ask for the relief and the District Court just gave them an extension out of thin air. This is actually false. So the opinion is not even correct factually. It is a sham.

On top the election can't even be run properly. They can only open 5 out of 180 polls because *none of the poll workers* will show up. The position of the District Court was if the ballot arrived by the 13th it counts. This is because the state is delayed mailing them put to people due to the pandemic. In fact, due to the current public health crisis they can't staff or mail the ballots. They can't run the election. The GOP in WI refuses to accommodate this. The SCOTUS refuses to accommodate a few days. You have to ask why? And this is why November is at risk. If we are dealing with wave 2 of this...guess what the SCOTUS says? Thems the breaks.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:19 am

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/stat ... 52869?s=20

My wife has been organizing Dem committeepeople around an effort to call for universal absentee balloting in PA this year.

They've already got some traction in the state House, and coronavirus might be enough to bring even some moderate Republicans on board. The Governor would sign it.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:32 am

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/statu ... 3144343552

This is right. Maybe one upside to Wisconsin is that it makes the danger here very clear.

Would be nice if I were seeing more signs that Democratic leadership is taking this seriously.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:01 am

If Democrats send a coronavirus to Trump without remote voting protections, they're signing the death warrant for a fair election in November

Freudian slip?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:51 am

Is there any reason we shouldn't all be signing up for absentee ballots for November right now?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:49 am

stessier wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:51 am Is there any reason we shouldn't all be signing up for absentee ballots for November right now?

None

If you get one of these , are you prohibited from voting in person ?

How do they monitor that.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:40 pm

https://twitter.com/OmarJimenez/status/ ... 2921078785

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:47 pm

IIRC, up until the mid-19th century, a handful of states had their electors chosen by the state legislatures, rather than by an open election. Could state legislatures do that now?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:49 pm

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:47 pm IIRC, up until the mid-19th century, a handful of states had their electors chosen by the state legislatures, rather than by an open election. Could state legislatures do that now?

Legally, probably. Politically, that would be a disaster. Though I wouldn't rule out some Republican states trying to do that if the general election is a coronavirus-fueled disaster.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:52 pm

This is what the Democrats are up against. They never had a chance.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status ... 4600629248

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:14 pm

Onion: Wisconsin Primary Voters Receive ‘I Voted’ Gravestones

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:45 pm

I wonder if the decision not to move the election (and extend absentee balloting) will backfire and hurt Republicans?

Maybe less wonder than hope.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:46 pm

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:45 pm I wonder if the decision not to move the election (and extend absentee balloting) will backfire and hurt Republicans?

Maybe less wonder than hope.

Pretty much impossible. There are allegations they sent absentee ballots to GOP areas and not to Dem areas and then there are limited polling locations. It'll likely be very lopsided. Also they can't call it for a week most likely which may dilute the message.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:24 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:46 pm
Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:45 pm I wonder if the decision not to move the election (and extend absentee balloting) will backfire and hurt Republicans?

Maybe less wonder than hope.
Pretty much impossible. There are allegations they sent absentee ballots to GOP areas and not to Dem areas and then there are limited polling locations. It'll likely be very lopsided. Also they can't call it for a week most likely which may dilute the message.

I haven't seen any polls on the state Supreme Court case, so it's hard to say for sure, but this sounds like a bit of a wish and a prayer. Unless the GOP incumbent was way behind, I have to assume that all of this is worth swinging things at least a few points his way. It is *possible* that the state GOP is underestimating the vote suppressing impact in GOP areas, or misunderstanding the electorate in some ways, but I tend to doubt that.

We'll see, I guess.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:59 pm

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:24 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:46 pm
Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:45 pm I wonder if the decision not to move the election (and extend absentee balloting) will backfire and hurt Republicans?

Maybe less wonder than hope.
Pretty much impossible. There are allegations they sent absentee ballots to GOP areas and not to Dem areas and then there are limited polling locations. It'll likely be very lopsided. Also they can't call it for a week most likely which may dilute the message.
I haven't seen any polls on the state Supreme Court case, so it's hard to say for sure, but this sounds like a bit of a wish and a prayer. Unless the GOP incumbent was way behind, I have to assume that all of this is worth swinging things at least a few points his way. It is *possible* that the state GOP is underestimating the vote suppressing impact in GOP areas, or misunderstanding the electorate in some ways, but I tend to doubt that.

We'll see, I guess.

I read the CW is that the liberal candidate Karofsky was up and dark money was pouring in to support the incumbent Kelly. The GOP is fighting hard because they see Wisconsin slipping away. They fear they'd lose the majority potentially in 2023 when the next judge was up for election. These guys are playing a long game here. Anything to win.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:09 am

Unagi wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:49 am
stessier wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:51 am Is there any reason we shouldn't all be signing up for absentee ballots for November right now?
None

If you get one of these , are you prohibited from voting in person ?

How do they monitor that.

Huh - found a reason. I'm not technically eligible to vote by absentee.

Persons qualified to vote by absentee ballot:

Members of the Armed Forces or Merchant Marine serving outside their county of residence and their spouses and dependents residing with them (click here for additional information)

Persons serving with the American Red Cross or with the United Service Organizations (USO) who are attached to and serving with the Armed Forces outside their county of residence and their spouses and dependents residing with them

Overseas Citizens (click here for additional information)

Persons who are physically disabled

Students attending school outside their county of residence and their spouses and dependents residing with them

Persons who for reasons of employment will not be able to vote on election day

Government employees serving outside their county of residence on Election Day and their spouses and dependents residing with them

Persons who plan to be on vacation outside their county of residence on Election Day

Persons serving as a juror in state or federal court on Election Day

Persons admitted to the hospital as emergency patients on Election Day or within a four-day period before the election

Persons with a death or funeral in the family within three days before the election

Persons confined to a jail or pre-trial facility pending disposition of arrest or trial

Persons attending sick or physically disabled persons

Certified poll watchers, poll managers, and county election officials working on Election Day

Persons sixty-five years of age or older

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:17 am

If I recall correctly, you and I were going to do that Vacation Home Swap right on Election Day.

That would put both of us as, “ Persons who plan to be on vacation outside their county of residence on Election Day”.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:21 am

I mean, all we need to do is plan it, and we’ve met the legal requirement.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:25 am

Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:21 am I mean, all we need to do is plan it, and we’ve met the legal requirement.

Well, no, not really. If all you're doing is a fictional "ok, now where I am is your home, and where you are is my home", but there's no actual transfer of property and you're doing anything differently, no election authority is likely to take that seriously.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:30 am

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:25 am
Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:21 am I mean, all we need to do is plan it, and we’ve met the legal requirement.
Well, no, not really. If all you're doing is a fictional "ok, now where I am is your home, and where you are is my home", but there's no actual transfer of property and you're doing anything differently, no election authority is likely to take that seriously.

We can plan it.

In the end, maybe the plans fall through and we don’t end up doing it.

You don’t need to actually have invoked the planned trip.

How much evidence and documentation do they require?
I assumed it was just a check box.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:49 am

Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:30 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:25 am
Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:21 am I mean, all we need to do is plan it, and we’ve met the legal requirement.
Well, no, not really. If all you're doing is a fictional "ok, now where I am is your home, and where you are is my home", but there's no actual transfer of property and you're doing anything differently, no election authority is likely to take that seriously.
We can plan it.

In the end, maybe the plans fall through and we don’t end up doing it.

You don’t need to actually have invoked the planned trip.

How much evidence and documentation do they require?
I assumed it was just a check box.

I'm not pretending to be an election law expert. BUT in general, if you want something to legally matter it needs to be real and not pretend. So sure, if you spent a long time planning an actual swap, you planned itineraries, booked flights, etc. etc., but then at the last minute it fell through, that's one thing. If it's just a one second "hey, let's say your house is mine and vice versa" ... I mean, I can't say that election authorities wouldn't find that compelling, I just very much doubt it.

Of course, there's also the separate practical issue of whether anyone would notice or care.