Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:52 am

Unagi's also in Illinois and can vote by mail without needing any of these issues.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:08 am

Lending credibility to our planned vacation house swap.

(also, I am not really worried about Illinois's votes going to Trump)

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:09 am

Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:17 am If I recall correctly, you and I were going to do that Vacation Home Swap right on Election Day.

That would put both of us as, “ Persons who plan to be on vacation outside their county of residence on Election Day”.

What a pal!

Sadly just means I should start agitating for improving the law. I'm sure I've got some spare time for that.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:11 am

Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:08 am Lending credibility to our planned vacation house swap.

(also, I am not really worried about Illinois's votes going to Trump)

And no one is SC is really worried that they won't go to Trump. But I still want to be heard - even if it is anonymously.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:40 am

stessier wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:11 am
Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:08 am Lending credibility to our planned vacation house swap.

(also, I am not really worried about Illinois's votes going to Trump)
And no one is SC is really worried that they won't go to Trump. But I still want to be heard - even if it is anonymously.

As a new SC resident, I'm mainly hoping that there's a chance we can oust Graham. I know it's super unlikely, but maybe more likely than SC going against Trump?

Weirdly, I've seen more political signs here (Charleston area) for Tulsi Gabbard than any other candidate.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:49 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:40 am
stessier wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:11 am
Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:08 am Lending credibility to our planned vacation house swap.

(also, I am not really worried about Illinois's votes going to Trump)
And no one is SC is really worried that they won't go to Trump. But I still want to be heard - even if it is anonymously.
As a new SC resident, I'm mainly hoping that there's a chance we can oust Graham. I know it's super unlikely, but maybe more likely than SC going against Trump?

Weirdly, I've seen more political signs here (Charleston area) for Tulsi Gabbard than any other candidate.

Gabbard has some appeal on the far right as well as the far left, so that might be a part of it.

Really hard to see how Graham loses but Trump doesn't. There's going to be some variation in their votes, but I can't see that much. It would have to be a situation where SC was competitive in the presidential election, and if that's the case, then that's a situation where Trump is getting blown out in the election.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:25 am

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/stat ... 22401?s=21

Sanders is dropping out.

Was Wisconsin the trigger? I haven’t seen any exit polls there, and results are delayed.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:30 am

Holman wrote:https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/stat ... 22401?s=21

Sanders is dropping out.

Was Wisconsin the trigger? I haven’t seen any exit polls there, and results are delayed.

He was 28 points under and needed to average 29 points over the rest of the way. He probably was told, drop now and we might talk about your pet projects. Keep going and you're dead to us.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5010 using Tapatalk

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:47 am

This is depressing. Anyone here from NY or from Pelosi's district that can start haranguing them?

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/statu ... 7373274112

We're pretty fucked.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:47 am

There's still a presidential race?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:58 am

Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:47 am There's still a presidential race?

Nominally.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:22 pm

Time for the investigations on Biden to really kick into gear. They have been really quite the last few weeks. I'm also waiting for the caravans to show up again.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:25 pm

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/stat ... 83426?s=21

Good stuff from Biden.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:43 pm

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1158459396

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:47 pm

So this is the good news on the election:

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1247918823904346119

Given the economic impact of coronavirus, I think polls are more likely to shift further towards Biden than away from him (though that's obviously not guaranteed). BUT the main worry is that the odds of a fair election are down considerably.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:04 pm

Did I miss something? I felt a great disturbance. Like hundreds or even a couple thousand Twitter Bernie Bros cried out in terror..."I will not vote for Joe Biden".

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:07 pm

Holman wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:25 pm https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/stat ... 83426?s=21

Good stuff from Biden.

That's an excellent statement.

(gods, how I miss people who can actually communicate like an adult)

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:19 pm

malchior wrote:Did I miss something? I felt a great disturbance. Like hundreds or even a couple thousand Twitter Bernie Bros cried out in terror..."I will not vote for Joe Biden".

F them all if they do that again. It boggles my mind that I'm sure that is exactly what some of them will do.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:22 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/RudyGiuliani ... 6656814080

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:42 pm

With all the hours Rudy's put into ginning up a Biden scandal, I'm sure he's happy that they won't be wasted.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:20 pm

It's probably too much to hope, but I'm dreaming of a Mattis or a Tillerson (hell, even Bolton) finally coming forward with some juicy interviews.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:44 pm

The latest Morning Consult poll tracking the Democratic race, conducted March 30-April 5, found 80 percent of Democratic primary voters who said Sanders was their first-choice candidate would vote for Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, while 7 percent said they would defect and back the incumbent Republican

https://morningconsult.com/2020/04/08/a ... ack-biden/

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:11 pm

Now that the path has cleared, Biden worries me. He needs to come across as competent, willing to lead, and like he has a plan to deal with what's going on. He has to sell the public on him being the next President. My worry is he spends too much time taking swipes at Trump. I think he'd do better to let others take their shots while he connects with the people.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:34 pm

gameoverman wrote: He needs to come across as competent, willing to lead, and like he has a plan to deal with what's going on.

I think he's been doing a pretty good job of that so far.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:39 pm

What a bizarre way for the NYT to put it...

We've found no pattern of sexual misconduct, other than the pattern of sexual misconduct.

They've since deleted the tweet.

Yes, I know Trump is far worse even leaving out 99% of his terribleness and focusing in solely on this particular point. But man, how depressing it is that this is where we're at.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:17 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:39 pm What a bizarre way for the NYT to put it...

We've found no pattern of sexual misconduct, other than the pattern of sexual misconduct.

This is not at all a fair summary of what they are saying. It's well publicized that Biden has been too touchy-feely, in the context of touching hair and shoulders and whatnot. That's creepy, but it's not sexual assault. Reade was accusing him of sexual assault (rape). They're saying "we haven't found corroboration of the allegations of rape / assault, there's only evidence of the touchy-feely stuff that we already knew about."

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:22 pm

They literally said sexual misconduct, not assault.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:09 pm

Well. They literally said “misconduct, beyond hugs (etc)”
They’re describing the type of misconduct
Meaning, here is the line in the sand of misconduct.
We did not find that Biden crossed ‘that line’ in any of the stories we have heard.

So, to paraphrase: The pattern of sexual misconduct that we have discovered has not gone beyond the pattern of sexual misconduct that we all are already aware of.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:13 pm

Correct. It's an absurd thing for a paper to print.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:07 am

Unagi wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:09 pm
So, to paraphrase: The pattern of sexual misconduct that we have discovered has not gone beyond the pattern of sexual misconduct that we all are already aware of.

Why is this an absurd thing to print? This is exactly what I wanted to know about the Biden allegations. We all know about the non-sexual touchy-feely Biden stuff. By contrast, IF there were credible sexual assault allegations against Biden, that would be a big f'in deal that would likely derail his candidacy and upend the whole election. Soooo... one can quibble with the phrasing, but what they're communicating is important and newsworthy.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:10 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:07 am
Unagi wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:09 pm
So, to paraphrase: The pattern of sexual misconduct that we have discovered has not gone beyond the pattern of sexual misconduct that we all are already aware of.
Why is this an absurd thing to print? This is exactly what I wanted to know about the Biden allegations. We all know about the non-sexual touchy-feely Biden stuff. By contrast, IF there were credible sexual assault allegations against Biden, that would be a big f'in deal that would likely derail his candidacy and upend the whole election. Soooo... one can quibble with the phrasing, but what they're communicating is important and newsworthy.

I would say it was an absurd Tweet not the story itself. I think that is what that was about. Anyway, the NY Times story left me feeling that this story is messy potential landmine. For example, their investigation turned up a contemporary friend who backed up that she told her about this back then. And that she likely told her brother about it. That changed the texture for me. In the end, it felt like the NY Times bent over backwards to say they couldn't fit this behavior into his existing, acknowledged pattern of general creepiness. It isn't even that she isn't credible about it being worse. It was no one else said he did anything as serious...yet. Which is not a great place to be.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:19 am

It’s most certainly ‘faint praise’

And it’s certainly a (sad) reflection of our times.
4 years ago, that type of comment would have been only read as negative. Now, we sit here and understand it as an attempt at being positive about the recent allegations.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:24 am

I did ask my wife the other day (in regard to this allegation) :

“Be honest with me, am I like the only adult man on Earth that isn’t groping at all women? “

I’m seriously dumb struck by how completely idiotic and unconstrained so many ‘famous’ people are.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:29 am

Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:19 am It’s most certainly ‘faint praise’

And it’s certainly a (sad) reflection of our times.
4 years ago, that type of comment would have been only read as negative. Now, we sit here and understand it as an attempt at being positive about the recent allegations.

It's also reflective of the fact that allegations like this are almost impossible to affirmatively disprove.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:33 am

The 2020 election should be drawn against one line : Can you, or can you not, just grab em by the pussy?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:35 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:29 am
Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:19 am It’s most certainly ‘faint praise’

And it’s certainly a (sad) reflection of our times.
4 years ago, that type of comment would have been only read as negative. Now, we sit here and understand it as an attempt at being positive about the recent allegations.
It's also reflective of the fact that allegations like this are almost impossible to affirmatively disprove.

Which is why I sort of agree with the NY Times 'standard' here. This happened *30* years ago. So many things work against finding the truth here especially since it nearly certainly relies on people and all the associated and complicated problems therein.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:37 am

Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:33 am The 2020 election should be drawn against one line : Can you, or can you not, just grab em by the pussy?

Fair enough. A level set on how shitty we've become. It also is as arbitrary as all the other political disasters that'll inevitably fall from the sky.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:42 am

malchior wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:35 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:29 am
Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:19 am It’s most certainly ‘faint praise’

And it’s certainly a (sad) reflection of our times.
4 years ago, that type of comment would have been only read as negative. Now, we sit here and understand it as an attempt at being positive about the recent allegations.
It's also reflective of the fact that allegations like this are almost impossible to affirmatively disprove.
Which is why I sort of agree with the NY Times 'standard' here. This happened *30* years ago. So many things work against finding the truth here especially since it nearly certainly relies on people and all the associated and complicated problems therein.

I will also give the NYT credit here for not writing a "questions raised" type story in the absence of more concrete evidence.

For me, the one comfort is that as far as I'm aware there are no other accusers. The accusations to me read like the kind of thing that would not be just a one time incident.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:19 pm

Bernie just gave his endorsement to Biden.

The two are also making a joint video appearance together.

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/124 ... 13636?s=21

In what I’ve watched so far, they seem genuinely allied. Feels like a real unity event.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:34 pm

It seems like Sanders and Biden like each other (personally) much more than Sanders and Clinton did.