Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:50 am

Defiant wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:14 am
Holman wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:50 pm
Jews, Muslims, and others have adapted perfectly well to social distancing and remote worship. But American conservatives have to twist it into a narrative of warfare against oppressive powers because FreedomJesus.

Reform, Conservative and Orthodox Jews have, but at least some ultra-Orthodox Jews haven't.

New York’s Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Community Warned About Large Funeral Crowds

A prominent Hasidic Rabbi also passed yesterday from the coronavirus. We are also seeing this in NJ as well. The piece mentions it but the town where this happened also had multiples weddings crashed by the police for flouting Governor Murphy's restrictions on crowd sizes. And they have not been friendly encounters.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:58 am

NY Times drops major report that backs up Washington Post reporting. There are new angles on some of the details including depth of reporting on some of the issues that have appeared since the WaPo piece including coverage of the Navarro memo from late January.

But dozens of interviews with current and former officials and a review of emails and other records revealed many previously unreported details and a fuller picture of the roots and extent of his halting response as the deadly virus spread:

*The National Security Council office responsible for tracking pandemics received intelligence reports in early January predicting the spread of the virus to the United States, and within weeks was raising options like keeping Americans home from work and shutting down cities the size of Chicago. Mr. Trump would avoid such steps until March.

*Despite Mr. Trump’s denial weeks later, he was told at the time about a Jan. 29 memo produced by his trade adviser, Peter Navarro, laying out in striking detail the potential risks of a coronavirus pandemic: as many as half a million deaths and trillions of dollars in economic losses.

*The health and human services secretary, Alex M. Azar II, directly warned Mr. Trump of the possibility of a pandemic during a call on Jan. 30, the second warning he delivered to the president about the virus in two weeks. The president, who was on Air Force One while traveling for appearances in the Midwest, responded that Mr. Azar was being alarmist.

*Mr. Azar publicly announced in February that the government was establishing a “surveillance” system in five American cities to measure the spread of the virus and enable experts to project the next hot spots. It was delayed for weeks. The slow start of that plan, on top of the well-documented failures to develop the nation’s testing capacity, left administration officials with almost no insight into how rapidly the virus was spreading. “We were flying the plane with no instruments,” one official said.

*By the third week in February, the administration’s top public health experts concluded they should recommend to Mr. Trump a new approach that would include warning the American people of the risks and urging steps like social distancing and staying home from work. But the White House focused instead on messaging and crucial additional weeks went by before their views were reluctantly accepted by the president — time when the virus spread largely unimpeded.

Edit: Addendum - The NY Times also released the 'Red Dawn' source material email chains documenting some of discussions about the response earlier in the year.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:14 pm

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5951799309

For the first time in history there is a fully signed Presidential Disaster Declaration for all 50 States. We are winning, and will win, the war on the Invisible Enemy!

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:59 pm

Ummm... grats?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:32 pm

malchior wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:14 pm https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5951799309

For the first time in history there is a fully signed Presidential Disaster Declaration for all 50 States. We are winning, and will win, the war on the Invisible Enemy!

Weird flex, but ok.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:57 pm

"People are saying it's the biggest Presidential Disaster ever! Yuge!"

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:15 pm

malchior wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:14 pm https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5951799309

For the first time in history there is a fully signed Presidential Disaster Declaration for all 50 States. We are winning, and will win, the war on the Invisible Enemy!

I'm interested in the metaphor of addressing a pandemic as "war on the Invisible Enemy!"

We don't talk that way about weather or natural disasters. Hurricanes and wildfires aren't evil, and earthquakes aren't "the enemy." Surely it's smarter to see a transmissible virus as something natural rather than political or ideological.

What are the costs of seeing it this way?

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:32 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

paywalled, but i did not know this part:

"Another incentive to do it themselves: The Federal Emergency Management Agency required photo identification, health insurance information, phone numbers, email addresses and home addresses for every patient tested, according to a letter the agency sent to the county that was obtained by The Washington Post. The agency also ordered county officials to ship the kits to labs with CDC contracts on the East Coast, which would yield results in as long as a week. Federal officials did not provide a rationale for gathering personal information or their insistence on cross-country shipping, county officials said. But the demands set off alarm bells in King County, a “sanctuary” jurisdiction that has come under fire from the Trump administration for its immigration policies. “Obviously that raises a whole different set of suspicions,” Constantine said. “A pandemic is the perfect example of why we don’t want people hiding in the shadows and being afraid to get tested. You can be infected by a citizen or noncitizen equally. Your immigration status is not relevant. And having the threat of deportation hanging over you only makes it more likely you will avoid testing and appropriate treatment.” So King County simply refused to comply and began processing all its tests locally. The decision seemed to provoke the Trump administration."

"Patty Hayes, director of public health for Seattle and King County, said the federal promises and deliveries shifted: “First they were bringing a tent and all the staff and it was going to be 10,000 tests. Then no staff and 8,000 tests. It only ended up being 4,000. . . . It was a whole series of stuff where we said, ‘This just isn’t workable.’ ” A FEMA spokesperson, Elizabeth Litzow, said the agency never committed to sending 10,000 tests to King County but confirmed that the agency was piqued by the decision to test kits locally, which was not “according to the plan.” When it became clear that King County would not adhere to FEMA’s “stipulations,” the spokesperson said, the agency ended its relationship with the county."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:03 am

Holman wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:15 pmI'm interested in the metaphor of addressing a pandemic as "war on the Invisible Enemy!"

We don't talk that way about weather or natural disasters. Hurricanes and wildfires aren't evil, and earthquakes aren't "the enemy." Surely it's smarter to see a transmissible virus as something natural rather than political or ideological.

What are the costs of seeing it this way?

I don't give it a thought because he is doing it to escape accountability. It is a con. The virus isn't the enemy. He is the enemy.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:11 am

Let's see him tell Cuomo to 'open up' his state.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 3219397632

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:22 am

Of course he wants to open up ASAP - because he's broke as hell:

Just after 4 p.m. on March 25, Ed Raymundo, finance director at Mar-a-Lago and Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, sent an email to Palm Beach County's real estate management department. The note asked how the county intended to handle the $88,338 monthly rent that the Trump Organization pays the county to lease the land where President Trump built his favorite golf club in Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis had already ordered restaurants and bars to close as the coronavirus pandemic escalated, meaning Trump and the club's members would no longer relax in the bar and restaurant overlooking the pristine 27-hole golf course.

"This mandate has resulted in the cancellation of events and forced the Club to close many of it's (cq) amenities leaving limited services available to our members," Raymundo wrote. "In addition, with many New York based members, the Governor's most recent order requiring individuals traveling from the tri-state area to self-quarantine further hampers our operation. Your direction in this is greatly appreciated."

You'd think a billionaire wouldn't be so concerned about an $88K monthly bill.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:32 am

malchior wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:11 amLet's see him tell Cuomo to 'open up' his state.

What a horse's ass. He has the authority to lift a Federal SIP order (that he's never issued). He does not have the authority to lift a State SIP order in NY. You know. State's rights and all that.

For the same reasons that the President doesn't have the right to come to my town and specifically change our local tax code. He's not a fucking Emperor.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:38 am

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:32 am He's not a fucking Emperor.

And yet, you can appreciate why he thinks he is. Above and beyond his congressional enablers, his newly found power to seize PPE being shuttled to various states has to make him feel rather powerful too. Not surprising at all that he thinks he's going to open the U.S. for business by waving his hand.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:00 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:38 am
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:32 am He's not a fucking Emperor.
And yet, you can appreciate why he thinks he is. Above and beyond his congressional enablers, his newly found power to seize PPE being shuttled to various states has to make him feel rather powerful too. Not surprising at all that he thinks he's going to open the U.S. for business by waving his hand.

But as soon as he commands it, a significant number of Red state governors will follow suit.

After that, it's all about starving Blue states of all Federal help, and then the narrative is "Republicans are saving the economy while Democrats are stifling it." Regardless of the number of deaths, that'll be the play for the election.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:11 pm

I know that's what they believe, but my money is still on the virus. It doesn't care about your political leanings and will exploit stupidity. Then again, nothing might matter if Trump gets rid of Dr. Fauci.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:14 pm

Firing Fauci won't matter. It's just the flu is coming back around again. Yeah only about 1000 people a day are dying in one city per day with an economy that is on a major lockdown. I don't know how the fuck they found anyone to say this with a straight face. It is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1 ... 2295944193

Fox News contributor Bill Bennett compares coronavirus to the flu, claiming that "this was not and is not a pandemic."

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:28 pm

Ah Bill Bennet, an expert on epidemiology if there ever was one. Everyone knew I’m advance that it the lockdowns and SIP orders worked, it would look like their weren’t necessary to dumb people incapable of understanding cause and effect.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:45 pm

The neighborhood was saved from burning by the the Fire Department, which, because the neighborhood didn’t burn, is clearly an unnecessary burden on the neighborhood.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:58 pm

Holman wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:45 pm The neighborhood was saved from burning by the the Fire Department, which, because the neighborhood didn’t burn, is clearly an unnecessary burden on the neighborhood.

To be fair, this was essentially the logic that the Supreme Court used to gut the Voting Rights Act.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:23 pm

In different news, to get ahead of the fucking moron in chief several Governors in the Northeast are presently announcing the coordination of data sharing and alignment of policy to re-open their economies. I am supremely impressed with these Governors and especially Cuomo who seems to be organizing the effort. They've routed around the disastrous Federal response to provide leadership. Much like Governor Newsom is coordinating supply purchasing. The Federal government has failed but the ingenuity of the American spirit has stayed alive through our State Governments. This is the best news I've heard in weeks tbh.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:22 pm

Alefroth wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:46 pmWhat's the obstacle? Cost or lack of investigators?

As another follow up, I just read a report released by Johns Hopkins and a national public health association putting forth a national call to action. Their estimate suggests that in order to do adequate tracing, the U.S. needs to hire ~100,000 people, paid ~$17 hour and costing ~$3.6 billion (working F/T for 1 year). There was an article in one my local NJ sources about a peer of mine running a health commission in central NJ. He estimated that he needs about a staff of 80 to do contact tracing, but he has a staff of about 15. They're working insane hours and I honesty don't know how long they can be expected to go at this pace. Meanwhile there's still additional core public health functions that need to take place but the entire staff is now tasked with tracing COVID-19 exposures and monitoring cases.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:24 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:22 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:46 pmWhat's the obstacle? Cost or lack of investigators?
As another follow up, I just read a report released by John Hopkins and a national public health association putting forth a national call to action. Their estimate suggests that in order to do adequate tracing, the U.S. needs to hire ~100,000 people, paid ~$17 hour and costing ~$3.6 billion (working F/T for 1 year).

If we manage to put together a vaccine in 12 months, would $3.6B pay for everyone in the US and several other needy nations to be immunized instead?

Based on the estimates you showed, tracing infections seems a moot point in the US now... like we should have been doing it when it would have taken 2 interns 3 days.

Can we make this as effective as 9/11 for changing policies? I mean, we all go through airport scanners now and put up with quite a bit. Perhaps the next time someone in China raises the alarm we simply flip the switch and quarantine everyone coming into the country (legally) for 2 weeks by default?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:31 pm

Paingod wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:24 pm If we manage to put together a vaccine in 12 months, would $3.6B pay for everyone in the US and several other needy nations to be immunized instead?

Can we keep the overwhelming majority of the US population out of work and at home for the next year? I don't believe the vaccine will be ready by March of 2021, for reference - I think it's going to take longer. We've yet to develop a vaccination against corona-viruses on the whole. I'm not hopeful we're going to be completely successful here.

Based on the estimates you showed, tracing infections seems a moot point in the US now... like we should have been doing it when it would have taken 2 interns 3 days.

We're not just tracking infections. Part of trying to control spread is to do contact tracing - aggressively hunting down people that were exposed to someone with COVID-19 and giving them medical guidance so they don't unwillingly potentially spread it to someone else. This is communicable disease control 101. Typically in modern America we're doing contact tracing for STIs and TB, but the same idea would apply for this.

Once we stop this initial surge, contact tracing will be how we help prevent a second wave from overwhelming us again. However, it still requires (wait for it) way more testing and surveillance than we're doing now.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:32 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:31 pm it still requires (wait for it) way more testing and surveillance than we're doing now.

so, it's not likely to even happen - right?

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:34 pm

Trump's insistence that he decides if and when we re-open for business reminds me of that scene in Game of Thrones where Tywin says that any man who has to go around telling people he is the king, is no king. This goes for other leaders too, such as the governor of NY and the mayor of NYC. If you have the power, wield it and it speaks for itself. If you don't have the power but claim you do then you'll look weak when you aren't able to wield it.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:34 pm

so, it's not likely to even happen - right?

If it is, I have not heard anything about it, no. I was (am?) fully expecting to be ordered-up to serve and would do so willingly if asked. Whether or not this new Avenger-level coalition of states in my area is able to figure this out I'm not sure. I don't know exactly what they're planning but I would hope increased surveillance is part of that.

Plus. add in this nugget from over the weekend about the "Wild West" nature of retail tests that will be showing up:

With almost no FDA oversight of the tests, “It really has created a mess that’s going to take a while to clean up,” said Eric Blank of the Association for Public Health Laboratories. “In the meantime, you’ve got a lot of companies marketing a lot of stuff and nobody has any idea of how good it is.”

Members of Blank’s group, which represents state and local lab officials, have urged the FDA to revisit its lax approach toward the tests. That approach essentially allows companies to launch as long as they notify the agency and include disclaimers. Companies are supposed to state that their tests have not been FDA-approved and cannot rule out whether someone is currently infected.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:43 pm

Paingod wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:24 pm
If we manage to put together a vaccine in 12 months, would $3.6B pay for everyone in the US and several other needy nations to be immunized instead?

Unless the vaccine is a $10 oral dose that you can pickup OTC at the local Walgreen's, no.

Let's say just the US and not the entire population. Let's say 300M. At the very low cost of $100 a pop, which includes vaccine and administration by a professional, but doesn't include associated doctor visit, etc, it would be $30B.

That's a lowball estimate and ignores the issue of getting 300M doses produced and distributed, let alone developed, trialed and approved.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:50 pm

No worries! We're all good.

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status ... 3802923016

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm

Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:54 pm

I'm now in survival mode, trying to hunker down until all the GOP dipshits in a rush to get back to work get sick and die off.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:03 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:50 pm No worries! We're all good.

Yeah, they clearly have noted infectious disease control and public health experts sitting in for guidance. Was Jim Kramer too busy to join?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:12 pm

Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??

I don't know who Lighthizer is. Setting him aside...I'm inclined to go with Mnuchin or Ross, as while they are bad people, they seem to be at least minimally competent since they succeeded in their fields prior to joining Trumpworld.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:18 pm

As I will continue to say - you first Representative Biggs - you goddamn first.

https://twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/stat ... 3214608387

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx should no longer be the primary voices at the table.

We need to open our economy TODAY to prevent a great depression. We can do this while still protecting the health of Americans.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:27 pm

Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??

Nope she is one of the worst of them. Anyone raised by this monster is beyond tainted goods. I'd have to reluctantly go with Mnuchin but this is just shades of evil at this point. Not a normal functioning non-sociopath amongst them.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:41 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:12 pm
Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??
I don't know who Lighthizer is. Setting him aside...I'm inclined to go with Mnuchin or Ross, as while they are bad people, they seem to be at least minimally competent since they succeeded in their fields prior to joining Trumpworld.

See, I think they are all totally committed to imperil us all, with the one female perhaps having a mothering instinct to not kill people for profit and power.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:41 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:14 pm Firing Fauci won't matter. It's just the flu is coming back around again. Yeah only about 1000 people a day are dying in one city per day with an economy that is on a major lockdown. I don't know how the fuck they found anyone to say this with a straight face. It is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1 ... 2295944193

Fox News contributor Bill Bennett compares coronavirus to the flu, claiming that "this was not and is not a pandemic."

May he get "the flu" and die.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:58 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:27 pm
Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??
Nope she is one of the worst of them. Anyone raised by this monster is beyond tainted goods. I'd have to reluctantly go with Mnuchin but this is just shades of evil at this point. Not a normal functioning non-sociopath amongst them.

I still have some hope for Tiffany Trump.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:16 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:50 pm No worries! We're all good.

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status ... 3802923016

I would only trust them to re-open America if they walk through the COVID wards in the NYC hospitals with no protective gear first.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:22 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:58 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:27 pm
Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??
Nope she is one of the worst of them. Anyone raised by this monster is beyond tainted goods. I'd have to reluctantly go with Mnuchin but this is just shades of evil at this point. Not a normal functioning non-sociopath amongst them.
I still have some hope for Tiffany Trump.

Tiffany was raised by Marla Maples.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:22 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:58 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:27 pm
Unagi wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm Oh man.

If you HAD to pick one of them being the least horrible - who would it be. I may have to go with Ivanka ??
Nope she is one of the worst of them. Anyone raised by this monster is beyond tainted goods. I'd have to reluctantly go with Mnuchin but this is just shades of evil at this point. Not a normal functioning non-sociopath amongst them.
I still have some hope for Tiffany Trump.

Definitely especially since she was not raised by that monster.