Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

Can we roll out the guillotine yet?

[hitbyambulance]

[Defiant]

I have a question - we've got sites that have been tracking coronavirus cases and others that have been projecting/predicting them (under different scenarios). But is there any website either tracking or projecting our healthcare resources/capabilities (eg, hospital beds, ventilators, PPE's, etc) over time (We have been using this time to increase them, right?)

[Defiant]

Can we roll out the guillotine yet?

Not unless they've started to design them to be more circular.

[RunningMn9]

I’m just saying, NY has been at 700+ deaths per day for a while and was near 10K already. I’m not saying that they aren’t adding 3700 deaths to the total, I’m just saying I don’t think they are part of that number yet. They weren’t at 6k before the weekend.

According to the tracker on Worldometer, they are aware of the new death numbers for N.Y., but they are NOT included yet. N.Y. is at almost 11000 deaths without those 3700.

[Jaymann]

Another card-carrying member of the GOP Death Cult offers his observation:

An Indiana congressman said Tuesday that letting more Americans die from the novel coronavirus is the "lesser of two evils" compared with the economy cratering due to social distancing measures.

Speaking with radio station WIBC in Indiana, Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth asserted that, while he appreciated the science behind the virus' spread, "it is always the American government's position to say, in the choice between the loss of our way of life as Americans and the loss of life, of American lives, we have to always choose the latter."

As always, you first Representative Hollingsworth. You first. I'm still trying to get my mind around the pivot to this, but then I remember the President is on TV every night showing zero remorse or empathy for those that have already died.

So they are weak like POWs? Tell that to Boris Johnson.

[LawBeefaroni]

I have a question - we've got sites that have been tracking coronavirus cases and others that have been projecting/predicting them (under different scenarios). But is there any website either tracking or projecting our healthcare resources/capabilities (eg, hospital beds, ventilators, PPE's, etc) over time (We have been using this time to increase them, right?)

States track hospital beds and ICU beds as a subset. However, they've waived a lot of licensing requirements for new beds and repurposing facilities (we turned our rehab facility and gym into Covid clinics) so the stats will be behind reality for a bit.

[malchior]

I’m just saying, NY has been at 700+ deaths per day for a while and was near 10K already. I’m not saying that they aren’t adding 3700 deaths to the total, I’m just saying I don’t think they are part of that number yet. They weren’t at 6k before the weekend.

According to the tracker on Worldometer, they are aware of the new death numbers for N.Y., but they are NOT included yet. N.Y. is at almost 11000 deaths without those 3700.

I think the confusion is that the Times is talking 10K in NYC versus all NY. This was 3700 in NYC alone. It's crazy.

[RunningMn9]

Gotcha. Apologies for the confusion.

[gbasden]

"you know what, F it if Texas and the Southern Confederated States of Jesus want to secede. let em. I want to live somewhere where facts and science rule the decision-making process"

Yes, this so very much!

[Paingod]

More fun today. In the midst of a worldwide pandemic, the President just announced the defunding of the WHO at a press conference where everyone was commenting that he appeared to be severely drugged and could barely read. Fucking awesome.

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 6649496578

One day, I think we’re going to find out that the medical drama behind the scenes in the White House is beyond what any screenwriter could’ve dreamed up.

I had to go look this up. Yeah, it's a mess - but I think it was someone telling him that he MUST read from the script, in addition to being drugged. He rambles a little, but mostly keeps his eyes down and focuses hard on his reading.

The fundamental message seemed to be "It's not my fault that we're so f**ked. WHO failed us, and that's why we're all dying now" - just more buck passing. It's funny, in a really - really - pathetic way that he's blaming everyone around him - above, below, outside, inside - as he sits in the position that's supposed to hold the most responsibility in the nation.

[LawBeefaroni]

GOP got his back.

The Senate’s primary oversight committee will launch a probe into the origins of and response to the deadly coronavirus pandemic, according to Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chair Ron Johnson.
...
“We need to know what role WHO might have had in trying to cover this thing up,” he added.

[malchior]

This is clearly in support of the activity where some of the Congressional GOP caucus is pressuring him to re-open the economy to protect their own re-elections. I recommend the GOP gather in a dense crowd at somewhere safe like the Javitts center to discuss this rationally.

“The president was very unfairly criticized for just [saying] what is indisputably true: ‘We need to make sure the cure isn’t worse than the disease.’ And I am concerned that the cure is worse than the disease,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). “If you’re a carpenter, every nail you see, the solution’s a hammer. The same may be true for epidemiologists.”

It’s a message at odds with the public health professionals advising Trump, who have warned against the country dropping its guard. But 16 million people are unemployed, Congress is struggling to respond, and Republicans seem to think the worst is close to over. Reviving the economy is also likely to be critical to GOP fortunes in November.

House Republicans have held weekly conference calls where they've eagerly discussed how and when to restart the economy, according to lawmakers and aides.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), chairman of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, is one of the most vocal GOP lawmakers calling for an aggressive exit strategy. He has expressed those views publicly as well as in numerous texts and phone calls to the White House and GOP leadership.

“It should have happened yesterday,” Biggs said of lifting the lockdowns. “I’m trying to use every bully pulpit I can to make my case.”

*Emphasis added

[LawBeefaroni]

Not sure where this goes.

[stessier]

The scary part is this is going to work on some people.

Trump today said he will speak to all 50 governors and "authorize" each individual governor to "implement a reopening plan of their state at a time and in a manner as is most appropriate."

[malchior]

This held up well. This article from *last week* is the sociopathic pablum you expect from these monsters.

National Review

Unlike other countries, it has so far avoided both isolation and economic ruin.
If the COVID-19 pandemic tails off in a few weeks, months before the alarmists claim it will, they will probably pivot immediately and pat themselves on the back for the brilliant social-distancing controls that they imposed on the world. They will claim that their heroic recommendations averted total calamity. Unfortunately, they will be wrong; and Sweden, which has done almost no mandated social distancing, will probably prove them wrong.

Lots of people are rushing to discredit Sweden’s approach, which relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown. While gatherings of more than 50 people are prohibited and high schools and colleges are closed, Sweden has kept its borders open as well as its preschools, grade schools, bars, restaurants, parks, and shops.

President Trump has no use for Sweden’s nuanced approach. Last Wednesday, he smeared it in a spectacular fashion by saying he’d heard that Sweden “gave it a shot, and they saw things that were really frightening, and they went immediately to shutting down the country.” He and the public-health experts who told him this were wrong on both counts and would do better to question their approach. Johan Giesecke, Sweden’s former chief epidemiologist and now adviser to the Swedish Health Agency, says that other nations “have taken political, unconsidered actions” that are not justified by the facts.

Here are the short-term results - Swedish Virus Deaths Top 1,000, Fueling Criticism Over Strategy - though apparently acceptable losses to the assholes on the right. Since they are not amongst the losses. It is simply the "little people". They are born to die for their master's wealth after all. To further frame this they went from 400 or so deaths to 1000 in the space of a week. And it is probably accelerating since death's lag. Meanwhile the rest of Scandinavia has some of the lowest death rates in the world. They locked down early.

In all, 1,033 Swedes have died from Covid-19, official figures showed on Tuesday. Though still well below fatality rates in Italy and the U.K., it’s far worse than in any of the Nordic countries with which Sweden usually compares itself. The Swedish mortality rate is almost 10 times higher than in Finland, more than four times higher than in Norway, and twice Denmark’s.

The latest development has prompted 22 academics to entreat the government to alter its course. “The approach must be changed radically and swiftly,” they wrote in an opinion piece published in the Dagens Nyheter newspaper.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

The scary part is this is going to work on some people.

Trump today said he will speak to all 50 governors and "authorize" each individual governor to "implement a reopening plan of their state at a time and in a manner as is most appropriate."

I'm worried about this here in SC since I work for the state. If the governor orders that non-essential employees can get back to work, I'm not sure how that will play out here. My supervisors have done all the right things (e.g. starting WFH weeks well before the governor ordered it, talking about remaining socially distant in the future), but I haven't been here long enough to know how they'll respond if higher ups order employees back to work...

[malchior]

That's a horrible position to be in. You might want to feel it out since you are ahead of it. At least plant a seed that people are going to be very uncomfortable going back until they know it is safe and isn't some political game.

I saw a similar situation. My very large consulting firm has a client who wanted one of my guys to bring his whole team into a SOC so it 'didn't look empty'. This was mid-March. I told him to push back and just say they wouldn't do it. That almost turned into a confrontation but was thankfully avoided because of the announcements that came out of the WH at the time. I fear we'll again be put in that position but the firm policy has become very solid and I expect that the client will be more receptive now since the 'glass is broken already'. In any case, this is why the President's policy matters so much. The President is vastly influential even if he doesn't have direct power. It is one of Trump's most dangerous weapons in this crisis and we've seen horrible results already due to it.

[malchior]

Early storylines to support the de-fund of WHO have come out of the WH. All of a sudden multiple voices have suddenly started talking about how WHO should have known what to do since this is COVID-*19*. An argument clearly targeted at the know nothings in the base. Holy shit is this blatantly dishonest but totally on brand for the GOP.

[Jag]

Early storylines to support the de-fund of WHO have come out of the WH. All of a sudden multiple voices have suddenly started talking about how WHO should have known what to do since this is COVID-*19*. An argument clearly targeted at the know nothings in the base. Holy shit is this blatantly dishonest but totally on brand for the GOP.

Blatantly dishonest IS the GOP brand.

[malchior]

Here is the video - also in this video was the claim that the travel ban worked. We don't know if it did or not or have basis to substantiate that claim due to the administrations many failures especially with respect to surveillance and testing.

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1 ... 8305362944

Kellyanne Conway: "This is COVID-19, not COVID-1 folks, and so you would think the people in charge of the World Health Organization, facts and figures, would be on top of that."

[El Guapo]

I actually had been assuming that Covid-19 meant that it was the 19th 'strain' or version or what have you of a coronavirus. Now I know that it refers to the year.

[malchior]

I actually had been assuming that Covid-19 meant that it was the 19th 'strain' or version or what have you of a coronavirus. Now I know that it refers to the year.

Right but she absolutely knows that and is saying this to confuse people. As an aside, I continue to not understand the George Conway / Kellyanne thing tbh. He is so anti-Trump and apparently pretty principled...up to a point. The point where his wife is the voice of Sauron. A bizarre side story to say the least.

[Max Peck]

COVID-19 is the disease, while the actual virus is SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-1 was the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004. It's noteworthy that countries that learned lessons from the SARS outbreak (e.g. South Korea, Taiwan) are the ones that have had the best results in dealing with COVID-19.

[Kraken]

I actually had been assuming that Covid-19 meant that it was the 19th 'strain' or version or what have you of a coronavirus. Now I know that it refers to the year.

Corona Virus Disease 2019.

[Unagi]

I actually had been assuming that Covid-19 meant that it was the 19th 'strain' or version or what have you of a coronavirus. Now I know that it refers to the year.

Corona Virus Disease 2019.

I’m frustrated that everyone doesn’t just know this.
Massively frustrating to see the GOP leveraging the ignorance to try and make a horrible point.

[LawBeefaroni]

Wait, wait, wait. Are they really trying to push the idea that we have had 18 previous chances to get this right?

[Skinypupy]

Wait, wait, wait. Are they really trying to push the idea that we have had 18 previous chances to get this right?

The stupid..it BURNS.

[Zaxxon]

Wait, wait, wait. Are they really trying to push the idea that we have had 18 previous chances to get this right?

Certainly the assumption that they are hoping the acolytes run with.

[malchior]

Wait, wait, wait. Are they really trying to push the idea that we have had 18 previous chances to get this right?

The stupid..it BURNS.

It is constructed to target stupidity. This is a straight up authoritarian tactic. You can not trust or underestimate these people.

[Smoove_B]

Wait, wait, wait. Are they really trying to push the idea that we have had 18 previous chances to get this right?

I'm genuinely at the end of my rope. Between the elected officials outright ignoring public health experts to the journalists and pundits undermining science, I don't feel public health at large has communication infrastructure and/or broad public support to counteract what's happening. We aren't losing against the virus, we're losing against a death cult.

[Zarathud]

The Trump administration couldn't even follow its own 2017 flu pandemic plan.

“It’s a fine plan and hits a lot of the right notes,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development who worked on global disaster response under both the Obama and Trump administrations. “The failure was a leadership and execution failure.”

This is why leadership matters.

[malchior]

I'm genuinely at the end of my rope. Between the elected officials outright ignoring public health experts to the journalists and pundits undermining science, I don't feel public health at large has communication infrastructure and/or broad public support to counteract what's happening. We aren't losing against the virus, we're losing against a death cult.

That is why the news that the administration won't let May 1st go by without 're-opening the economy'. He has the death cult baying for human sacrifices so that they can stay ridiculous wealthy. Who knows what form it'll take. Maybe he uses the DPA to try to force industries to produce goods. Anything is probably on the table to try to force the regional compacts to act.

[LawBeefaroni]

Meanwhile, staying at home, Chicago style:

[Smoove_B]

I think the confusion is that the Times is talking 10K in NYC versus all NY. This was 3700 in NYC alone. It's crazy.[/quote]

As I suspected, they are correctly adjusting:

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/statu ... 6504430595

BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result).

It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%.

Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/statu ... 9530452994

NYC Health Dept. has made a dramatic change to how it is tracking coronavirus deaths, now includes those who did not have a confirmed test. This graph shows how significant this increase has become.

This is the type of reporting I'm more used to seeing as identifying probable cases (again, this all goes back to the creation of case definitions) is helpful in controlling spread. Seeing this information reported as such gives me more confidence that NYC in particular is doing the right things.

[Paingod]

I think the confusion is that the Times is talking 10K in NYC versus all NY. This was 3700 in NYC alone. It's crazy.

Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.

You know, that's really going to make their numbers look bad.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1 ... 8305362944

She thinks there was a COVID-1 through COVID-18.

[Jaymann]

She's in good company with dbt.

[Paingod]

She thinks there was a COVID-1 through COVID-18.

I don't think she does. I think she wants Trump's base to think there was so it aligns better with this being the fault of WHO and not Trump.

We aren't losing against the virus, we're losing against a death cult.

If them getting sick wasn't going to clog hospitals and cause people who ARE following science over absurdity, I'd be of the mind to let them have their death. Fewer Trump voters should equate to an easy Biden win. If anything, they should be all over staying healthy "So they can stick it to the Libtards in November"

Okay, so... what would it look like with "Blue" states (West & East coast) states staying locked down to keep the curve low and slow the viral spread, but "Red" states (Southern & Middle) tossing open the doors to make the blood sacrifice for the gods of cash flow? Is there any kind of projection of how awesome that will be? That's what we seem to be moving towards.

[malchior]

Washington Post. The President setting an arbitrary date and working backwards seems like a good recipe for public policy, right?

President Trump has all but decided to begin declaring the country ready to get back to business on May 1, two current and two former senior administration officials said, but a scramble is underway inside the White House to determine how to stagger a reopening of the economy amid the novel coronavirus pandemic while also protecting Trump from any political fallout.

Impatient with the economic devastation wrought by social distancing and other mitigation measures — and fearful of the potential damage to his reelection chances — Trump has been adamant in private discussions with advisers about reopening the country next month.

Yet within Trump’s circle, officials say, there is acknowledgment that it will not be possible for the president to simply flip a switch. A return to normal likely would take many months, administration officials said, and should be orchestrated methodically and guided by medical data. For instance, officials are considering beginning with areas deemed to have the lowest risk of a major outbreak.

Trump said Tuesday night that he plans to ask the governors of all 50 states later this week to implement “a very powerful reopening plan” in their states at whatever time they deem appropriate. He said more than 20 states are in “extremely good shape” and are poised to reopen their economies very soon, “maybe even before the date of May 1.”

“Our country has to get open, and it will get open, and it’ll get open safely and hopefully quickly — some areas quicker than other areas,” Trump said at a Rose Garden news conference.

The White House is in the process of modeling testing results, death rates and other data to help guide a decision. Aides stressed that, despite the president’s fixation on May 1 as a reopening date, the timing remains fluid and no final decision has been made.