Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Paingod]

WHO is not the bad guy. Trump is.

WHO's on first. Trump went "Wee wee wee, all the way home"

[Defiant]

WHO's on first.

[Defiant]

People call Covid-19 Schrodinger’s Virus (after Schrodinger's Cat) because we cannot get tested, we cannot know whether we have the virus or not. We have to act as though we have the virus so that we don’t spread it to others. We also have to act as if we’ve never had the virus because if we didn’t have it, we’re not immune to it. Therefore: We both have and don’t have the virus. Thus, Coronavirus is also Schrodinger’s Virus.

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[Smoove_B]

There is so much WTF in this story that it is unimaginable. 68 deaths in one place and it went unnoticed including 2 of the nurses. They were tipped off to the whole thing because they moved a body into a shed? This needs to be investigated. Emphasis added below for heaps of WTF.

This a local facility to me and people in the area are all on social media complaining that our (D) governor let this happen. This absolutely needs to be investigated, but it's not a political story. It's the same group of people saying he's a tyrant and that he's in on the conspiracy to block doctors from using medications that are known to work against the virus.

[malchior]

There is so much WTF in this story that it is unimaginable. 68 deaths in one place and it went unnoticed including 2 of the nurses. They were tipped off to the whole thing because they moved a body into a shed? This needs to be investigated. Emphasis added below for heaps of WTF.

This a local facility to me and people in the area are all on social media complaining that our (D) governor let this happen. This absolutely needs to be investigated, but it's not a political story. It's the same group of people saying he's a tyrant and that he's in on the conspiracy to block doctors from using medications that are known to work against the virus.

Oh I know the area well. I get it. It is quasi-political as it is a resource issue but mostly societal. That said, all the assisted living facilities are dealing with this. I have a friend who's father was in a facility in the Denville area and got it, got hospitalized, made it through, and now they have to figure out what to do with him. It's a problem but some of the worst assisted living slum lords deserve to get their nuts crushed in drawers. 68 people and he was putting bodies in a shed? Fuck that. The state needs to step in and force them to sell it to someone with fucking baseline morals.

[LawBeefaroni]

Some families in the neighborhood are still having their nannies come in to watch the kids while the parents work from home.

[Paingod]

...sell it to someone with fucking baseline morals.

The sad reality is that they'd likely get sold to a management company with zero morals and total focus on cost-cutting for profits.

[Skinypupy]

New York has hired McKinsey to create a "Trump-proof plan" to reopen.

[malchior]

...sell it to someone with fucking baseline morals.

The sad reality is that they'd likely get sold to a management company with zero morals and total focus on cost-cutting for profits.

That is what happened. The place went broke and these assholes took over and drove it into the ground. I found a couple of articles about how they had issues since taking over recently. In one case, a patient walked out a door in the middle of the night and the staff ignored the alarms.

[Smoove_B]

Like everything else, the issue isn't this pandemic. What you're seeing is a scenario where marginalized/ignored/under-represented populations are experiencing disproportionate impacts. It's a tale as old as time. The pandemic is shining a bright light on what we collectively try to ignore in our day-to-day lives here in America.

I hate to keep linking to the Atlantic (I really do read other sites), but this is another article that is amazing, suggesting the pre-pandemic world was fiction:

What the current crisis and our responses to it, both individual and institutional, have reminded us of is not the unreality of the pandemic, but the illusions shattered by it:

The grand, shared illusion that we are separate from nature.

That life on Earth is generally stable, not precarious.

That, despite what we know from the historical and geological and biological record, human civilization—thanks to advancements in science and medicine and social and governmental structures—exists inside a bubble, protected from the kind of cataclysmic event we are currently experiencing.

What I’ve learned in the past few weeks is that this supposed technological bubble was just that: a thin layer that popped easily.

[El Guapo]

Like everything else, the issue isn't this pandemic. What you're seeing is a scenario where marginalized/ignored/under-represented populations are experiencing disproportionate impacts. It's a tale as old as time. The pandemic is shining a bright light on what we collectively try to ignore in our day-to-day lives here in America.

I hate to keep linking to the Atlantic (I really do read other sites), but this is another article that is amazing, suggesting the pre-pandemic world was fiction:

What the current crisis and our responses to it, both individual and institutional, have reminded us of is not the unreality of the pandemic, but the illusions shattered by it:

The grand, shared illusion that we are separate from nature.

That life on Earth is generally stable, not precarious.

That, despite what we know from the historical and geological and biological record, human civilization—thanks to advancements in science and medicine and social and governmental structures—exists inside a bubble, protected from the kind of cataclysmic event we are currently experiencing.

What I’ve learned in the past few weeks is that this supposed technological bubble was just that: a thin layer that popped easily.

eh. I mean, in many ways the whole point of civilization is to remove people to the maximum extent possible from the state of nature, which is arbitrary and cruel. That effort has been hugely, immensely successful over time, but it's necessarily imperfect and prone to setbacks. Is it all an illusion? No, it just has inherent flaws and limitations.

[Kraken]

New York has hired McKinsey to create a "Trump-proof plan" to reopen.

I'm glad that states can route around the non- to dysfunctional administration in Washington, and especially glad to live in one of the states that's doing so. The harder Trump tries to assert his godlike powers, the less relevant the POTUS becomes. As long as Congress keeps the money tap open and Trump stays at arm's length, we'll be fine.

[Blackhawk]

eh. I mean, in many ways the whole point of civilization is to remove people to the maximum extent possible from the state of nature, which is arbitrary and cruel.

Which is in many ways futile, given that humans themselves are just another implementation of nature.

[Smoove_B]

eh. I mean, in many ways the whole point of civilization is to remove people to the maximum extent possible from the state of nature, which is arbitrary and cruel. That effort has been hugely, immensely successful over time, but it's necessarily imperfect and prone to setbacks. Is it all an illusion? No, it just has inherent flaws and limitations.

I guess that's one way to re-frame thinking that our global society has been brought to its knees by a sequence of non-living proteins.

[Paingod]

New York has hired McKinsey to create a "Trump-proof plan" to reopen.

I'm glad that states can route around the non- to dysfunctional administration in Washington, and especially glad to live in one of the states that's doing so. The harder Trump tries to assert his godlike powers, the less relevant the POTUS becomes. As long as Congress keeps the money tap open and Trump stays at arm's length, we'll be fine.

Is everything passing with veto-proof majorities? I wouldn't put it past him to try and block something that benefited a state that was thumbing it's nose at him.

[Skinypupy]

Opening the schools would only cost us 2-3% mortality, ya big whiners.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1250807416872189952

DR OZ: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but ... that might be a tradeoff some folks would consider."

[LawBeefaroni]

Opening the schools would only cost us 2-3% mortality, ya big whiners.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1250807416872189952

DR OZ: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but ... that might be a tradeoff some folks would consider."

Not trying to defend the charlatan TV doctor asswipe but he may be saying 2-3% of total deaths, not 2-3% of population.

2% of 60+K is a lot different than 2% of 300+M. Still not acceptable but need to keep it in persepective.

[Smoove_B]

Right, so if we use today's total (~31K) and take 2% of that, he's saying having schools open would be worth another ~600 deaths. If he would like to take suggestions for those 600 people I can probably have a list together by dinner time.

Also, I've never seen so many people talking so casually and brazenly about preventable death. As I saw elsewhere, it's like half the United States is fighting in WW2 and the other half doesn't believe the Germans exist.

[Paingod]

Right, so if we use today's total (~31K) and take 2% of that, he's saying having schools open would be worth another ~600 deaths. If he would like to take suggestions for those 600 people I can probably have a list together by dinner time.

Hey, hey, hey - he's talking public schools here. Remember that private ones would probably have a lot stricter measures in place to ensure the rich parents sending their kids were fine, if the kid went instead of staying home with tutors. All of those public school kids and their parents aren't really who matters in this crisis. Geeze.

In other news, Florida seems to be working hard to get their number of active cases under control - by not testing for them.
https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1 ... 58759?s=20

[El Guapo]

eh. I mean, in many ways the whole point of civilization is to remove people to the maximum extent possible from the state of nature, which is arbitrary and cruel. That effort has been hugely, immensely successful over time, but it's necessarily imperfect and prone to setbacks. Is it all an illusion? No, it just has inherent flaws and limitations.

I guess that's one way to re-frame thinking that our global society has been brought to its knees by a sequence of non-living proteins.

But it's nothing permanent for civilization / humanity (obviously very different at the individual level). Civilization survived the Spanish Flu, the Black Plague, etc. It will continue after this as well.

[noxiousdog]

eh. I mean, in many ways the whole point of civilization is to remove people to the maximum extent possible from the state of nature, which is arbitrary and cruel. That effort has been hugely, immensely successful over time, but it's necessarily imperfect and prone to setbacks. Is it all an illusion? No, it just has inherent flaws and limitations.

I guess that's one way to re-frame thinking that our global society has been brought to its knees by a sequence of non-living proteins.

But it's nothing permanent for civilization / humanity (obviously very different at the individual level). Civilization survived the Spanish Flu, the Black Plague, etc. It will continue after this as well.

This would barely have been a blip 100 years ago. It's a big deal because we value lives more.

[Smoove_B]

To those that like to dig into the numbers, one more today from The Atlantic:

The U.S. did almost 25 times as many tests on April 15 as on March 15, yet both the daily positive rate and the overall positive rate went up in that month. If the U.S. were a jar of 330 million jelly beans, then over the course of the outbreak, the healthcare system has reached in with a bigger and bigger scoop. But every day, 20 percent of the beans it pulls out are positive for COVID-19. If the outbreak were indeed under control, then we would expect more testing—that is, a larger scoop—to yield a smaller and smaller proportion of positives. So far, that hasn’t happened.

And:

Comparing American states to regions in other countries results in the same general pattern. In Lombardy, the hardest hit part of Italy, the positive rate today stands at about 28 percent. That’s comparable to the rate in Connecticut. But New York, so far the hardest hit state in the U.S., has an even higher rate of 41 percent. And in New Jersey, an astounding one in two people tested for the virus are found to have it.

Can't wait to hear President TruckNutz talk about how we're ready to be open for business in the next two weeks.

[malchior]

eh. I mean, in many ways the whole point of civilization is to remove people to the maximum extent possible from the state of nature, which is arbitrary and cruel. That effort has been hugely, immensely successful over time, but it's necessarily imperfect and prone to setbacks. Is it all an illusion? No, it just has inherent flaws and limitations.

I guess that's one way to re-frame thinking that our global society has been brought to its knees by a sequence of non-living proteins.

We choose this response because we *have* civilization. This isn't the black death. It isn't at risk (yet) of ending civilization. We could go on and pay the price if we chose to.

[Smoove_B]

This would barely have been a blip 100 years ago. It's a big deal because we value lives more.

Maybe. I think this has ultimately reinforced the idea that we're a global culture. Humanity will undoubtedly survive. Our way of life? I'm not so sure.

[noxiousdog]

This would barely have been a blip 100 years ago. It's a big deal because we value lives more.

Maybe. I think this has ultimately reinforced the idea that we're a global culture. Humanity will undoubtedly survive. Our way of life? I'm not so sure.

We always say that.

The overall fatality rate just isn't high enough to make this a way of life altering event. That of course assumes it doesn't become a seasonal event that kills 5% of the population and we have no antibody memory. That seems pretty unlikely though.

We're -already- talking about reopening. At the height of the fear and respect for the virus. Let it fade into the background for a couple months and it's back to normal.

I think it will certainly strengthen the call for universal health insurance and universal basic income, but I think those are about as different as it gets.

[msteelers]

Right, so if we use today's total (~31K) and take 2% of that, he's saying having schools open would be worth another ~600 deaths. If he would like to take suggestions for those 600 people I can probably have a list together by dinner time.

Hey, hey, hey - he's talking public schools here. Remember that private ones would probably have a lot stricter measures in place to ensure the rich parents sending their kids were fine, if the kid went instead of staying home with tutors. All of those public school kids and their parents aren't really who matters in this crisis. Geeze.

In other news, Florida seems to be working hard to get their number of active cases under control - by not testing for them.
https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1 ... 58759?s=20

I don’t understand the data here in Florida. Nobody can get tested unless they show multiple symptoms. And yet, per daily emails I get from the Dept of Health, only 10% of the tests are coming back positive. That number has held steady for weeks.

I would have thought that for a state that didn’t take this seriously until it was seemingly too late, our positive test percentage would be far higher, especially when restricting tests to cases that are high probability for covid.

It makes me think that either the Coronavirus isn’t as bad here as many feared it would get, or shenanigans are afoot.

My money is on shenanigans. Especially since the only sick person I know who was tested got an “inconclusive” result.

[Badcompany]

Biggest farce since Milli Vanili. The numbers don't add up. I'm surprised how many are happy the village is burning down.

[malchior]

This would barely have been a blip 100 years ago. It's a big deal because we value lives more.

Maybe. I think this has ultimately reinforced the idea that we're a global culture. Humanity will undoubtedly survive. Our way of life? I'm not so sure.

We always say that.

The overall fatality rate just isn't high enough to make this a way of life altering event. That of course assumes it doesn't become a seasonal event that kills 5% of the population and we have no antibody memory. That seems pretty unlikely though.

We're -already- talking about reopening. At the height of the fear and respect for the virus. Let it fade into the background for a couple months and it's back to normal.

I think it will certainly strengthen the call for universal health insurance and universal basic income, but I think those are about as different as it gets.

I think this is overly optimistic. We are only talking about reopening because sociopaths rule our nation. Most medical experts are saying it is a bad idea. This event will almost certainly change our way of life for an extended period of time. This event is going to drag on for some time, especially in the north east and the economy will not come back as quickly as it folded.

[Holman]

Right, so if we use today's total (~31K) and take 2% of that, he's saying having schools open would be worth another ~600 deaths. If he would like to take suggestions for those 600 people I can probably have a list together by dinner time.

Also, I've never seen so many people talking so casually and brazenly about preventable death. As I saw elsewhere, it's like half the United States is fighting in WW2 and the other half doesn't believe the Germans exist.

IANAMPH, but I can't understand the argument I keep hearing that it's safe to send kids back to school because kids aren't a significant proportion of victims.

Do all these kids live alone? Or is there actually some evidence that kids can't be carriers even when they're not symptomatic?

[Alefroth]

New York has hired McKinsey to create a "Trump-proof plan" to reopen.

I'm glad that states can route around the non- to dysfunctional administration in Washington, and especially glad to live in one of the states that's doing so. The harder Trump tries to assert his godlike powers, the less relevant the POTUS becomes. As long as Congress keeps the money tap open and Trump stays at arm's length, we'll be fine.

And the more they do it, the more angered Trump will become, perhaps to the point of stroke or cardiac arrest. So win-win.

[Smoove_B]

Do all these kids live alone? Or is there actually some evidence that kids can't be carriers even when they're not symptomatic?

I haven't seen to much of a push for this lately, but I do think it's framed in the original view that children (loosely defined as >1 year but ~<12 years) seemingly do not suffer as much when they're infected. I have yet to see any follow up research supporting the idea kids are super-spreaders or they're more likely to be asymptomatic in general.

I'm having a hard time seeing how schools can open up - any schools (K-College). Even if the data tells us (right now) that children don't seem to be as likely to be impacted, I cannot imagine a scenario where as a public official I'm telling parents to send children to school and they'll be fine. Our numbers might say that now, but I'm not entirely confident in the validity of the data (because we don't have broad testing). I also cannot imagine what would happen if we open a school district serving hundreds of kids and one of them contracts and then dies from the virus.

About the only thing I'm sure of at this point is that China lied about the number of people that died. As far as I know the only study on children came out of China (which then had an additional study based on the data published in the NEJM), so it doesn't really feel to me like we should be making decisions about kids based on either or what our wonky testing is telling us now.

[Smoove_B]

Also, my public health peoples are currently tearing through the White House plan to open things back up. I'm looking forward to sharing detailed reviews because their collective initial take on what the President is proposing is laughable. SPOILER: The Federal Government takes no responsibility moving forward.

EDIT: And I see there are now 20 states that have created four different regional partnerships. Amazing, amazing times.

[Zaxxon]

[Zarathud]

Trump shoots the console: BorIng conversation anyway. MITCH, WE’VE GONNA HAVE COMPANY!

[gameoverman]

"If the virus returns in the fall, as some scientists think it may possibly...

When did it leave? He's not counting his chickens before they hatch, he's counting them before he has the eggs.

[Isgrimnur]

He's counting spider eggs.

[hitbyambulance]

EDIT: And I see there are now 20 states that have created four different regional partnerships. Amazing, amazing times.

what's the fourth? i know of the western, northeastern and midwestern-ish ones.

[Smoove_B]

EDIT: And I see there are now 20 states that have created four different regional partnerships. Amazing, amazing times.

what's the fourth? i know of the western, northeastern and midwestern-ish ones.

Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, at least as of two days ago.

[Smoove_B]

Given how physicians handle antibiotics, who could have seen this coming?

While Ligia’s symptoms were consistent with those of COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, she was never tested for the virus, her brother-in-law, Lee Levitt, told NBC News. Ligia received the drug after speaking by phone with her doctor, Levitt said. She was never evaluated in person and received no heart screening or warning about the potential side effects.

In summary:

A New York woman with coronavirus symptoms died last week after being prescribed a drug cocktail with known cardiac side effects, and family members say she was not tested for COVID-19 or for heart problems before receiving the medication.

I wonder where her doctor got the idea to try this route? I'm sure we'll find out as the investigation continues.

[Isgrimnur]

The family’s experience suggests that at least some physicians are prescribing hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin — drugs President Donald Trump has promoted to treat the coronavirus — outside of hospital settings, underscoring why major medical organizations including the American Heart Association have issued warnings about the drug’s potential to trigger heart arrhythmia in some patients.

All you had to do to know that was stop by r/TalesFromThePharmacy.