Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Grifman]

Kudlow on CNBC calling for legislation/EO to block liability lawsuits for businesses that open up.

Why do they need immunity if it is safe to reopen?

[Grifman]

This is embarrassing:

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1252612885731147776

I read the original article early on when there were a lot of disputes about the estimated covid-19 death toll. So a lawyer at the Hoover Institute wrote an article where he strongly disputed the CDC estimates. In his article he estimated the total US deaths at 500. A day or so later, he changed it and in a footnote said he was off a factor of 10 and said that this was an error, he meant 5,000. Fair enough, that seemed a reasonable explanation as the death toll at the time of the article was 592 so the error seemed obvious.

However, if you now look at the article, he says his original estimate was 5,000, which is tens time less than he meant it to be so his original estimate was 50,000. So the guy is trying to alter history, and retcon his original estimate. If the Hoover Institute wishes to maintain whatever credibility they have, he needs to face consequences for trying to falsify his article.

They've now added an addendum to their addendum, claiming an "editing error":

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200 ... d-19.shtml

[malchior]

Actual headline in 2020 -- "Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force."

I guess Michael Brown was unavailable for the post.

[Alefroth]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

[$iljanus]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

Always bet on black! The black plague!

[malchior]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

She is bonkers. Luckily from what I saw she doesn't actually have much power to do anything.

[Alefroth]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

She is bonkers. Luckily from what I saw she doesn't actually have much power to do anything.

That's good. I heard from a relative there that she's at odds with the governor.

[malchior]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

She is bonkers. Luckily from what I saw she doesn't actually have much power to do anything.

That's good. I heard from a relative there that she's at odds with the governor.

That's the rub. We should just make a mention and move on. Honestly the main reason these type of know-nothings keep getting attention is for them to get dunked on. It isn't productive. The media has an addiction to pushing the outliers out front to drive the conversation and it is part of the destructive cycle we are all in the middle of.

[Alefroth]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

She is bonkers. Luckily from what I saw she doesn't actually have much power to do anything.

That's good. I heard from a relative there that she's at odds with the governor.

That's the rub. We should just make a mention and move on. Honestly the main reason these type of know-nothings keep getting attention is for them to get dunked on. It isn't productive. The media has an addiction to pushing the outliers out front to drive the conversation and it is part of the destructive cycle we are all in the middle of.

That's the rub, they aren't really outliers anymore.

[El Guapo]

Las Vegas mayor thinks the market should decide which casinos close.

Maybe the casinos with more infections can offer better odds.

She is bonkers. Luckily from what I saw she doesn't actually have much power to do anything.

That's good. I heard from a relative there that she's at odds with the governor.

That's the rub. We should just make a mention and move on. Honestly the main reason these type of know-nothings keep getting attention is for them to get dunked on. It isn't productive. The media has an addiction to pushing the outliers out front to drive the conversation and it is part of the destructive cycle we are all in the middle of.

Well, that and the know nothings keep getting elected to public office.

[malchior]

The bullshit is raining down.

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/12 ... 2757695491

[Skinypupy]

Watching friends descend from conservative-leaning to full on lunacy over this has been sad to watch.

Good friend of mine was always conservative and we never saw eye to eye on anything political, but this COVID-19 thing has just pushed him over the edge. He’s become firmly convinced that the death counts are completely fabricated, that this is all a worldwide conspiracy to take down Trump, that the entire thing is the media’s fault and there is really no threat at all, that the government is getting ready to forcibly vaccinate people with Bill Gates’ microchip, and that Facebook is actively censoring everything he posts. I’ve always known him to be a smart, reasonable guy, but he has gone off the deep end into derpland.

Thankfully, I never had to watch my parents descend into Fox News hell, and have a renewed sympathy for those of you who have.

[malchior]

top three 'spreader' states are all ones without a shelter in place order:



from https://rt.live, of course

I can't caution enough against reading anything into this visualization. Their algorithm produces a drastically different result day to day. For example, at one point early in the week CT was at the far left of the scale. And then was 2nd from the right day the next day. Their model isn't even close to stable. I can't even prove this because the results from yesterday are based on a re-compute from today that has different results.

Speak of the devil - they made a big update. Proceed with caution.

Based on suggestions and ideas from the community, we made a major model update on 4/23. The new version of this model accounts for variation in serial interval and delay between onset of symptoms and a positive test. Because of these changes, it is also more robust to large changes in reported tests. However, this also means that Rt will be far less variable day-to-day than the previous model.

As in the prior version, the model is available as a notebook.

[Paingod]

...this COVID-19 thing has just pushed him over the edge...

Somewhere at the base of all these weird theories there's a driving motivator. The first block. Is it religion, and maybe the belief that there's no way MY GOD could be so cruel? Is it a belief that there's no way people can be so frail? Is it a belief that their lives are somehow blessed or gifted?

We saw this same kind of denial in some people around things like the Holocaust or the Sandy Hook school shootings. Whatever system they're building their world view with is fundamentally flawed and these harsh realities just don't fit, so they buck and kick and scream about how it must be wrong... because they can't be.

[LordMortis]

...this COVID-19 thing has just pushed him over the edge...

Somewhere at the base of all these weird theories there's a driving motivator. The first block.

Sitting at home reading social media and right wing news innuendo. Don't think for a second that OO isn't in the same boat. Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19. I tend to think when you isolate yourself with people reinforcing what you already believe especially with emotional force you believe stronger. This why we should both trust and question authority. It's what science asks us to do to know the world better. Or as Izzy used to say all of the time.... Cite?

(which BTW, I've cited before but this is reference INSERM trials https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04315948 )

[Unagi]

Watching friends descend from conservative-leaning to full on lunacy over this has been sad to watch.

Good friend of mine was always conservative and we never saw eye to eye on anything political, but this COVID-19 thing has just pushed him over the edge. He’s become firmly convinced that the death counts are completely fabricated, that this is all a worldwide conspiracy to take down Trump, that the entire thing is the media’s fault and there is really no threat at all, that the government is getting ready to forcibly vaccinate people with Bill Gates’ microchip, and that Facebook is actively censoring everything he posts. I’ve always known him to be a smart, reasonable guy, but he has gone off the deep end into derpland.

Thankfully, I never had to watch my parents descend into Fox News hell, and have a renewed sympathy for those of you who have.

It must be weird for him to see Trump himself 'flirt' with the conspiracy then? I mean - wouldn't Trump still be calling it fake if it was? I know Trump is all over the place with his statements, but if this was all bullshit - he would be calling it only bullshit.

[Unagi]

Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19.

I thought most people here were saying that his pushing of the drug was irresponsible and ahead of the science, and also taking the drug from people with malaria? But yes. we are our own echo chamber.

[YellowKing]

What gets me are the people who seemingly believe both the truth and the fiction at the same time. I've got several FB friends who will post safe social distancing guidelines and medical articles one day, and some crazy 5G/China bioweapon article the next. It's not necessarily that the beliefs aren't compatible, because you could certainly follow safe guidelines to protect yourself from China's 5G bioweapon, but it's frustrating that they put the New York Times and ConspiracyAmericaKKK journalists on the same level.

[LordMortis]

What gets me are the people who seemingly believe both the truth and the fiction at the same time. I've got several FB friends who will post safe social distancing guidelines and medical articles one day, and some crazy 5G/China bioweapon article the next. It's not necessarily that the beliefs aren't compatible, because you could certainly follow safe guidelines to protect yourself from China's 5G bioweapon, but it's frustrating that they put the New York Times and ConspiracyAmericaKKK journalists on the same level.

Me too. I go nuts when people are willing to cite stuff when they google something that confirms their beliefs and then disregards the rest. Lie lalie. Lie lalie lie lalie. Lie lalie.

[Unagi]

Great. Now that song is stuck in my head

[Skinypupy]

Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19.

I thought most people here were saying that his pushing of the drug was irresponsible and ahead of the science, and also taking the drug from people with malaria? But yes. we are our own echo chamber.

This.

The issue for people here was less about the drug itself, and more about Trump pushing it as some sort of "miracle cure" when it hadn't been proven to be so in any way, shape, or form yet. We all remain hopeful that, with testing, there will be a breakthrough. Hell, I'll be the first to trumpet it from the rooftops when there is, but his actions regarding the drug were wildly irresponsible and dangerous. That's the problem.

[Paingod]

Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19.

I thought most people here were saying that his pushing of the drug was irresponsible and ahead of the science, and also taking the drug from people with malaria? But yes. we are our own echo chamber.

This.

I don't think I've seen anyone here say "There's no way in hell this is true" but I hear a lot of "It's really irresponsible to push something without science" - especially when I see more stories about people using this drug having heart failure in the news than I'm hearing about them being cured.

[LordMortis]

Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19.

I thought most people here were saying that his pushing of the drug was irresponsible and ahead of the science, and also taking the drug from people with malaria? But yes. we are our own echo chamber.

This.

The issue for people here was less about the drug itself, and more about Trump pushing it as some sort of "miracle cure" when it hadn't been proven to be so in any way, shape, or form yet. We all remain hopeful that, with testing, there will be a breakthrough. Hell, I'll be the first to trumpet it from the rooftops when there is, but his actions regarding the drug were wildly irresponsible and dangerous. That's the problem.

I don't think so. From the outset OO has been posting about discrediting the drug to discredit POTUS. Or maybe that's my own bias. shrug

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 8#p2716288

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 5#p2719015

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 3#p2719023

[Skinypupy]

Have we gotten around to this yet? I saw it mentioned on Twitter yesterday, but didn't see the full article until this morning.

Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force

Shortly after his televised comments, Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.”

Two years later, at the dawn of the coronavirus crisis, Azar appointed his most trusted aide and chief of staff, Harrison, as HHS’s main coordinator for the government’s response to the virus.

Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields. In 2006, he joined HHS in a one-year stint as a “Confidential Assistant” to Azar, who was then deputy secretary. He also had posts working for Vice President Dick Cheney, the Department of Defense and a Washington public relations company.

Before joining the Trump Administration in January 2018, Harrison’s official HHS biography says, he “ran a small business in Texas.” The biography does not disclose the name or nature of that business, but his personal financial disclosure forms show that from 2012 until 2018 he ran a company called Dallas Labradoodles.

The company sells Australian Labradoodles, a breed that is a cross between a Labrador Retriever and a Poodle. He sold it in April 2018, his financial disclosure form said. HHS emailed Reuters that the sale price was $225,000.

Look, I get that lots of people have varied resumes. That's not the issue here. But to jump from dog breeder to head of US Pandemic task force in two years with zero experience in the field? C'mon man...

[Paingod]

to jump from dog breeder to head of US Pandemic task force in two years with zero experience in the field? C'mon man...

There's a reason the US is creeping up on a million cases soon and leading the world in known positives by quadruple the next-worst nation, and it has nothing to do with our population numbers. It's absolutely shit management at the Federal level with no coordination between any of the hands reaching into the pot to stir it. I suspect that a dog breeder running the pandemic is just another symptom.

[Skinypupy]

Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19.

I thought most people here were saying that his pushing of the drug was irresponsible and ahead of the science, and also taking the drug from people with malaria? But yes. we are our own echo chamber.

This.

The issue for people here was less about the drug itself, and more about Trump pushing it as some sort of "miracle cure" when it hadn't been proven to be so in any way, shape, or form yet. We all remain hopeful that, with testing, there will be a breakthrough. Hell, I'll be the first to trumpet it from the rooftops when there is, but his actions regarding the drug were wildly irresponsible and dangerous. That's the problem.

I don't think so. From the outset OO has been posting about discrediting the drug to discredit POTUS. Or maybe that's my own bias. shrug

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 8#p2716288

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 5#p2719015

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 3#p2719023

I'll only speak to my post you linked to. Based on the administration's track record, I was highly skeptical that there was actual science available which actually proved it to be the cure-all that Trump was claiming. That's quite different than "discrediting the drug to discredit POTUS".

Look, Trump lies constantly. Anything he brings forward as a solution or cure - for literally ANY problem - I'm going to be skeptical of because a) he simply can't tell the truth about anything, and b) he always has an ulterior motive.

[Paingod]

he always has an ulterior motive.

And sometimes that motive is as primitive as slamming someone's face into the ground so he can take back the spotlight.

[Skinypupy]

he always has an ulterior motive.

And sometimes usually that motive is as primitive as slamming someone's face into the ground so he can take back the spotlight.

FTFY

[Unagi]

Everyone here keeps posting reinforcement after reinforcement that Trump's malaria drug has no basis in reality when INSERM is doing clinical trials and the drug has been used in France to treat COVID pre-19.

I thought most people here were saying that his pushing of the drug was irresponsible and ahead of the science, and also taking the drug from people with malaria? But yes. we are our own echo chamber.

This.

The issue for people here was less about the drug itself, and more about Trump pushing it as some sort of "miracle cure" when it hadn't been proven to be so in any way, shape, or form yet. We all remain hopeful that, with testing, there will be a breakthrough. Hell, I'll be the first to trumpet it from the rooftops when there is, but his actions regarding the drug were wildly irresponsible and dangerous. That's the problem.

I don't think so. From the outset OO has been posting about discrediting the drug to discredit POTUS. Or maybe that's my own bias. shrug

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 8#p2716288

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 5#p2719015

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 3#p2719023

I think you are right that we all want him discredited so much that we will knee-jerk into discrediting the things he's promoting, but I do think we are careful to find a legitimate reason that is 'real', and with Trump - I don't think we've failed.

And, in the post of mine you linked... I described Trump's push of this drug as his Hail Mary. I think that's accurate. He was hoping that this drug may end up being used and that he would get credit for "Calling It' before anyone in the medical community was. My point was, very much, that the drug MAY actually work, but that Trump didn't know it, and that he was "all in" on this drug, because it was the only way to make him look like a genius.

[LordMortis]

Then it's my bias. Until I read stuff from the NIH, learned who INSERM were and then saw at least a vague statement on the clinical trials, I walked away from this thread believing chloro... may as well be colloidal silver. It wasn't until I heard someone arguing that it's not all POTUS arrogance and pointing to the NIH on past uses and studies related to a COVID virus that I felt I was getting something approaching a real story.

[raydude]

You'd think that ANY study, legitimate or not, would cause Fox News to continue to promote the malarial drug. But you'd be wrong.What does Fox know that we don't know?

[El Guapo]

Then it's my bias. Until I read stuff from the NIH, learned who INSERM were and then saw at least a vague statement on the clinical trials, I walked away from this thread believing chloro... may as well be colloidal silver. It wasn't until I heard someone arguing that it's not all POTUS arrogance and pointing to the NIH on past uses and studies related to a COVID virus that I felt I was getting something approaching a real story.

Well, I don't think it was ever "we want to discredit this even if it's true so that Trump will look bad." I think we're reflexively skeptical of anything that comes out of Trump's mouth, which I think is entirely fair given his track record. Like, I think if Trump was like "hey everyone, puppies are cute", we'd be all "ok, did Trump buy stock in a bunch of kennel companies or something?"

[LawBeefaroni]

Then it's my bias. Until I read stuff from the NIH, learned who INSERM were and then saw at least a vague statement on the clinical trials, I walked away from this thread believing chloro... may as well be colloidal silver. It wasn't until I heard someone arguing that it's not all POTUS arrogance and pointing to the NIH on past uses and studies related to a COVID virus that I felt I was getting something approaching a real story.

As they say, it's not the poison, it's the dose. Same with the cure.

[LordMortis]

As they say, it's not the poison, it's the dose. Same with the cure.

My reading suggests the thing going on is that not only is COVID-19 causing the pneumonia that is killing en masse but it is also attacking at the vascular level and the hyrochlorofragilisticexperthalitosis is hard on the vascular system... and heart problems being 1 leg of my multifactor high risk, I personally will pass unless my medical professionals can dumb down why the cure is less dangerous to me than that treatment and Ima keep isolating.

IAMAD or virologist but I am ultra high risk and wonder if I am hypochondriac so I find myself trying to learn what I can the way 300,000,000 other US citizens are trying through google and news. I try very hard not put up my antiTrump blinders but I'm not smart or knowledgeable enough to know, so matter what I read I still defer to medical professionals telling me specifically i should do.

[Paingod]

I try very hard not put up my antiTrump blinders but I'm not smart or knowledgeable enough to know, so matter what I read I still defer to medical professionals telling me specifically i should do.

Throughout this entire pandemic, from the beginning, it's been safer to get your news and critical updates anywhere BUT the federal government. That's not anti-Trump bias - that's watching them delay the response, deny science, fire scientists, bully researchers, actively encourage infection rates, and push that we need to sacrifice people to the economy like some sort of god out of ancient times.

All any of us can do is try to piece together the narrative from a dozen less chaotic sources.

[Daehawk]

If people listen to trump for their medical advice they might as well let him fly their planes or represent them in court.

[noxiousdog]

to jump from dog breeder to head of US Pandemic task force in two years with zero experience in the field? C'mon man...

There's a reason the US is creeping up on a million cases soon and leading the world in known positives by quadruple the next-worst nation, and it has nothing to do with our population numbers. It's absolutely shit management at the Federal level with no coordination between any of the hands reaching into the pot to stir it. I suspect that a dog breeder running the pandemic is just another symptom.

Population is absolutely a major factor.

Cases
Spain: 213k
Italy: 187k
France: 157k
Germany: 151k
UK: 139k
Total: 847k

Population 322M.

However, we are really lucky that outside of New York, the population density is really low, or we would be worse off than Spain/Italy numbers.

[Defiant]

Warren reveals that her brother has died of coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1253332675315724289

[Defiant]

About 13.9% of the 3,000 New Yorkers who were part of randomized antibody tests in the state were infected and developed an antibody, according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavir ... d=70301746

I'd like to see their methodology (For example, I would think people who had symptoms but were unable to get tested would be more likely to say yes to the option of getting tested, so I'm a little skeptical.)

[Smoove_B]

Yes, I'm waiting to see more details. Was this a truly random sample or were people self-selecting based on whether or not they felt they had a mild case? It's certainly very interesting but until we can understand how the data was collected I'd caution any meaningful interpretation.