Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:05 pm

Isn't 13% in the realm of where we expect things now? It might be at the high end, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:11 pm

Doesn't seem crazy to me. Also it sounds like there have been a few antibody studies now, and they're all pointing to a drastic undercounting of cases (on the order of 8x, 10x, etc.).

Of course, there may well be issues with the studies, and there must be some biases skewing the count one way or another, but 13% seems plausible all things considered.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:13 pm

Right - it doesn't seem unreasonable. But I really want to know if it was a random sampling. Until I know how people were selected for the test, I can't really process what it might mean. Epidemiological studies are potentially rife with all kinds of bias so we go to great lengths in public health to make sure we're doing our best to minimize that influence.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:35 pm

If it is an accurate number, it would mean the death rate in NY (based on official deaths) would be around 0.77%, somewhat higher with the unofficial deaths. Not that far out of line with some of whats been seen.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:42 pm

Only the best people

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1253384997307899904

NEW: In deleted tweets, new HHS spokesman Michael Caputo said the coronavirus was because "millions of Chinese suck the blood out of rabid bats as an appetizer and eat the ass out of anteaters."

He said Democrats had a "goal" of "massive deaths."

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:59 pm

More details:

Cuomo said an eye-popping 21% of people from the five boroughs who were picked to be tested outside supermarkets and big box stores have contracted the disease at some point.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

So people who are currently exposing themselves, rather than getting things delivered. That's probably going to affect the results.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:04 pm

CNN - Caputo: I had more Russia contacts than anyone

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:49 pm

So the good peoples at the Atlantic Council have published a ~16 page paper detailing the global outlook. Thankfully they've also summarized (what I think) is the main takeaway from their analysis: 3 scenarios for a post COVID-19 world:

Scenario 1: Great Acceleration Downward
Scenario 2: China First
Scenario 3: New Renaissance

This is very big (SEE: global) picture stuff, but still interesting to read. By interesting, I mean potentially terrifying.

Fretmute · Post by **Fretmute** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:37 pm

Scenario 1: Great Acceleration Downward
Scenario 2: China First
Scenario 3: New Renaissance

Well, I know which of these is definitely not happening on this timeline.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:54 pm

LordMortis wrote:I don't think so. From the outset OO has been posting about discrediting the drug to discredit POTUS. Or maybe that's my own bias. shrug

I don’t know. There was something really odd about the way and frequency with which he was pushing it. While I know there are clinical trials looking at it - this whole thing started with a French study that showed 100% efficacy. Which was later retracted for being crap.

Would I like a malaria drug to defeat this virus? Yes. Would I like remdesivir to halt COVID-19 in its tracks? Of course.

Do they? I have no idea. And neither does Trump. Which is why he shouldn’t be pushing it the way he has. Because that’s goddamn dangerous. Both for the people that run out to try it, and the people that need the medicine for the stuff we know it works for that now can’t get it.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:03 pm

stessier wrote:Isn't 13% in the realm of where we expect things now? It might be at the high end, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.

We think 2,790,000 New Yorkers have been infected already? That seems pretty high to me given they have only found 268K positive cases so far.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:32 pm

Holy shit.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1253 ... 19586?s=20

He really just seemed to suggest that injecting people with disinfectant would clean their lungs.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:37 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:54 pm he shouldn’t be pushing it the way he has. Because that’s goddamn dangerous. Both for the people that run out to try it, and the people that need the medicine for the stuff we know it works for that now can’t get it.

That I anger I get. It'll be rare you see me not think the president and his enablers are human shit. But I walked away from this thread for a while with the OO hivemind seemingly telling me hydra'scolorformkids is quack science from a crazy known fraud lone French doctor picked up by the all knowing Oz and is now the cure as preached by the Gospel of the POtuS.

I guess that's on me and eventually my own comprehension failings will lead me to find less utility in what the consortium is offering.

Oh and a thing I learned today, a group of octopuseses is a consortium according to animalfacts.com

https://theanimalfacts.com/glossary/animal-group-names/

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:38 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:03 pm
stessier wrote:Isn't 13% in the realm of where we expect things now? It might be at the high end, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
We think 2,790,000 New Yorkers have been infected already? That seems pretty high to me given they have only found 268K positive cases so far.

All the estimates of infections I've seen have used 10x to 50x multipliers for detected versus actual. So 10x is not unreasonable.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:50 pm

This is from the other thread but I think it probably fits better here:

YellowKing wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:24 am In this case, the lives we're trading away could be disproportionately minorities/the poor. That needs to be taken into account. While we trade policy for life in an abstract sense all the time, there is the potential for real abuse here and the ethics need to be considered carefully.

I agree. I've seen people on the news talk about the need to get the economy going before it's too late, but they always spin it as a "some people will die" decision. I have yet to hear one say it bluntly. They are willing to kill minorities, the poor in general, older people, and people with health problems. They are willing to kill the person who needs medical treatment ASAP for something that otherwise wouldn't be deadly but is deadly if hospitals are overflowing with patients. Generally speaking this means the risk is minimized for people who are well off, which includes a lot of white people. The risk is minimized for people who are in better health, who tend to be people with greater access to health care, who then tend to be white. In terms of risk, we are not all in this together. Some people are in life rafts, others are in the water. That being the case, the people in power have to make decisions based on how it affects the most vulnerable, or they are straight out evil in my opinion.

It would be different if no one knew who was being killed most by this virus, but we do know.

Scenario 1: Great Acceleration Downward
Scenario 2: China First
Scenario 3: New Renaissance

I love what ifs. I think Scenario 1 is already in play, at least until proven otherwise. I don't think Russia is a threat to do anything militarily but I do think China is thisclose to making moves. With the people of the US in lockdowns and not working, would anyone give a crap if China was to take Taiwan? That's the question I'd be willing to bet is being debated by the Chinese leadership right now. If they ever want to do it, now is the time.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:55 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:49 pm So the good peoples at the Atlantic Council have published a ~16 page paper detailing the global outlook. Thankfully they've also summarized (what I think) is the main takeaway from their analysis: 3 scenarios for a post COVID-19 world:

Scenario 1: Great Acceleration Downward
Scenario 2: China First
Scenario 3: New Renaissance
This is very big (SEE: global) picture stuff, but still interesting to read. By interesting, I mean potentially terrifying.

Any scenario that starts with "A newly reelected Trump administration" is going to be a hybrid of scenarios 1 and 2. I'm still skeptical that Trump will live through November, so the Pence administration would be a wildcard there.

Scenario 3, depending as it does upon "a new US leader at the helm," seems like a pipe dream. I can buy the US/EU rapprochement, but not much else. At best, we might slow our decline. I don't see how we can ever have a renaissance without permanently neutralizing the forces behind Trumpism.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:23 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:32 pmHe really just seemed to suggest that injecting people with disinfectant would clean their lungs.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:27 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:59 pm More details:

Cuomo said an eye-popping 21% of people from the five boroughs who were picked to be tested outside supermarkets and big box stores have contracted the disease at some point.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

So people who are currently exposing themselves, rather than getting things delivered. That's probably going to affect the results.

This is not a great take. Not many at all are getting everything delivered. It is hard enough in the suburbs (I haven't been able to do even curbside pickup anywhere) much less in the city. Everyone I know here (in NJ) and there (in NY) is basically going once every one to two weeks no matter what.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:28 pm

There was a video released a few days ago, but thankfully they finally just made a graphic. Via the Rockafeller Foundation, their tiered plan to to have businesses open by August:

(click to embiggen)

Note how one of the very first things is Testing and Tracing. Without that, nothing else can happen.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:28 pm

stessier wrote:All the estimates of infections I've seen have used 10x to 50x multipliers for detected versus actual. So 10x is not unreasonable.

When were those estimates made? I could believe that was true a month ago, when the reported cases were so low, with an extreme lack of testing, and no lockdowns in place.

I have a much harder time believing that’s true today.

But I don’t really have any idea what I’m talking about, so there’s that.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:35 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:28 pm There was a video released a few days ago, but thankfully they finally just made a graphic. Via the Rockafeller Foundation, their tiered plan to to have businesses open by August:

(click to embiggen)

Note how one of the very first things is Testing and Tracing. Without that, nothing else can happen.

I put this in the not political thread. It's a good read. 24 minutes my ass, though. Unless you can digest what you are reading like twice as fast I do or faster.

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pande ... tsrc=MEDWP

It's like that old Ragu commercial. "it's in there."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:35 pm

Re: the NYC results. I had seen widespread reports that the tests weren't well tested so they don't have a good idea what the false positive/negative rates are. My wife wanted to run out and get them here in NJ and we didn't even though she is going into a factory every day. I don't want her thinking she is immune because some rushed to market product told her so. We don't know what antibodies even mean or if they are accurate.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:05 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:27 pm
Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:59 pm More details:

Cuomo said an eye-popping 21% of people from the five boroughs who were picked to be tested outside supermarkets and big box stores have contracted the disease at some point.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

So people who are currently exposing themselves, rather than getting things delivered. That's probably going to affect the results.
This is not a great take. Not many at all are getting everything delivered.

Even if you argue every household is going out to the grocery stores themselves (and that's not the impression I've gotten), you're likely not going to have the whole household going out - most likely, the members of the households that are more vulnerable are going to stay at home.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:11 pm

As promised, I continue to monitor semen. The good news is that so far, there's no indication it is an issue, but that could change. As you were.

There are certain limitations to this study. First, our results are impacted by the small sample size and selection bias, as men with COVID-19 in this study are more likely to have demonstrated milder symptoms. Prior research has suggested that higher viral loads are associated with more severe disease symptoms, and it is plausible that viremia or a certain viral threshold is not achieved to cross the blood-testis barrier(15). Second, given safety concerns regarding viral transmission from the semen specimens, comprehensive semen analyses were not performed. We were only able to obtain a single semen sample for the purposes of this study, with only three patients providing a sample within 14 days of their COVID-19 diagnosis. This limits our ability to provide data on possible early viral shedding in the semen. Third, not all patients in our cohort had a comprehensive genitourinary examination, limiting interpretations regarding the incidence of scrotal findings consistent with orchitis during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Fourth, we were unable to assess hormone profiles in our cohort, including total testosterone, luteinizing hormone, and follicle stimulating hormone, which could provide an assessment of testicular function.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:25 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:05 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:27 pm
Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:59 pm More details:

Cuomo said an eye-popping 21% of people from the five boroughs who were picked to be tested outside supermarkets and big box stores have contracted the disease at some point.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

So people who are currently exposing themselves, rather than getting things delivered. That's probably going to affect the results.
This is not a great take. Not many at all are getting everything delivered.
Even if you argue every household is going out to the grocery stores themselves (and that's not the impression I've gotten)

Where is this impression coming from because I'm not arguing it. It is what is happening. I'm literally in the middle of it. In fact, I ventured out after 2 weeks today. I tried to get curbside for 4 weeks logging on to multiple stores daily. It is locally known as essentially winning a lottery ticket. So consequently shopping for food in my area in central NJ is extremely difficult. There are lines to get in stores. You get in and the places are still relatively packed and on top wiped out of many goods. I won't get into my experience today even because it was horrible. So I'm telling you based on my experience and everyone I know (well over 90+ people I have communicated with) not many people can get deliveries of groceries in central NJ, northern coastal NJ (e.g. Asbury Park/Red Bank), Northeast NJ, some parts of Philly (where my friends are at least), or NYC. I don't know what is going on in RM9/Smoove_Bs neck of the woods but it is more rural out there. Curbside is pretty much unavailable in the areas above. Demand is way too high and the stores can't keep employees. That is our reality for now.

you're likely not going to have the whole household going out - most likely, the members of the households that are more vulnerable are going to stay at home.

Due to the above I'd hazard that people who were exposed also exposed their families. It's a side show though because the tests aren't terribly reliable yet.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:25 pm Where is this impression coming from because I'm not arguing it. It is what is happening.

My sample size isn't as large as yours and is mostly in NYC but while it can take several days, grocery deliveries are happening.

Due to the above I'd hazard that people who were exposed also exposed their families.

Except that it could be that the people with families are the ones who don't have the antibodies. Or do. Who knows? (which is kind of the point) But to my mind it's likely not a representative sample.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:25 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:25 pm Where is this impression coming from because I'm not arguing it. It is what is happening.
My sample size isn't as large as yours and is mostly in NYC but while it can take several days, grocery deliveries are happening.

I'm not saying they don't happen at all. I'm saying it is extremely rare. Almost nonexistent. If I were to expand to what I've seen in my town facebook groups it'd be a bigger sample but that's just my town but with similar results. We have people volunteering to get items for elders/immune compromised families. Only recently is a workaround coming online and there is no word how effective it is yet.

Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pmExcept that it could be that the people with families are the ones who don't have the antibodies. Or do. Who knows? (which is kind of the point) But to my mind it's likely not a representative sample.

Based on what though? It is a guess. And what I'm just pointing out is that your assumption there is likely faulty. It isn't representative because some statistically significant amount of people are getting delivery? It could be true but it seems pretty unlikely based on lived experience and reporting. But more to the point even if they were or weren't representative, the testing isn't necessary reliable yet to make it worth caring about.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:54 pm

FWIW, grocery delivery is a nonstarter in greater Boston, too. Given its scarcity, it should be reserved for those who cannot fend for themselves, not squandered on those who are just afraid to.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:59 pm

Kraken wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:54 pm FWIW, grocery delivery is a nonstarter in greater Boston, too. Given its scarcity, it should be reserved for those who cannot fend for themselves, not squandered on those who are just afraid to.

I actually argued this should be the case. What has essentially emerged is a defacto policy to have elder hours first hour. Nothing like getting to the store watching these folks rolling whole cart loads out the door. Then wait in a line to eventually get about 50% of your grocery list of basic staples. I had to go to three stores to piece together my 2 week run. I mean I could have skipped a store but it meant missing at least one staple component. All and all it took about 2 hours and it was terrible all around.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:32 pm

Today US coronavirus deaths surpassed US deaths in the Vietnam War.

So glad C-in-C BoneSpurs is in charge.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:39 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:32 pm Today US coronavirus deaths surpassed US deaths in the Vietnam War.

So glad C-in-C BoneSpurs is in charge.

In more depressing news, there was a big uptick in positive tests yesterday and today after we saw some decline. Today in particular may be a new max or close to it at 35-36K positive results.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:40 pm

I assume that everyone at OO is going to rush out and discredit "injecting people with disinfectant" just because you all want to discredit Trump.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pm

On groceries, in our experience in Boston so far it's possible to get grocery deliveries, but with a 2 week lag, and it's not at all rare to have grocery store delivery periods fully booked up. We got one delivery near the beginning of this process (about a month ago), and I think we got on the schedule for a delivery two weeks from now. But otherwise we're mostly venturing out to the grocery store once every 1.5 to 2 weeks.

Though my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:45 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:40 pm I assume that everyone at OO is going to rush out and discredit "injecting people with disinfectant" just because you all want to discredit Trump.

The science is out on this. Though I did get a feeling that when I saw Dr. Birx's soul leaving her body as he asked her over and over if they were try this stuff out that this will get a thorough and serious vetting.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:48 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pmThough my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

This is the part that is driving me crazy. Not well stocked and people are not keeping their distance. I had an experience today where there was a woman weeping at the beef fridge in BJs while she talked on speakerphone about how there was nothing to buy. She was proceeding to pick up and put down the few packages of london broils while 2 of us (we weren't together) stood a good distance away. She moved to the extreme right edge and I darted in and just grabbed one to move on. She screamed at me for violating social distancing. On the well stocked front I went to three stores and couldn't find any butter. I'm so done with this shit.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:48 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:40 pm I assume that everyone at OO is going to rush out and discredit "injecting people with disinfectant" just because you all want to discredit Trump.

Well, the virus won't survive long in a dead body, so...

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:48 pm

Christ. Lost a co-worker. She was the one that handled filing all of company’s paperwork for the govt. She had a second job as well, and a customer full on sneezed in her face. She passed 11 days later from this thing. I suspect she might have already had it, but either way I hope that customer never comes in contact with her husband.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:55 pm

I’m so sorry RM9.

Just found out that both my aunt and uncle tested positive on Monday. They’re not hospitalized (yet), but told my mom that they both feel absolutely terrible.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:00 pm

So sorry RM9 as well. My wife lost a former co-worker. She was pretty inconsolable for a little while. I think almost everyone in the NJ/NY metro area is going to have little separation from fatalities by the beginning of summer. This doesn't feel like it is slowing down.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:04 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:45 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:40 pm I assume that everyone at OO is going to rush out and discredit "injecting people with disinfectant" just because you all want to discredit Trump.
The science is out on this. Though I did get a feeling that when I saw Dr. Birx's soul leaving her body as he asked her over and over if they were try this stuff out that this will get a thorough and serious vetting.

Enhanced w/ video evidence.

https://twitter.com/matthewamiller/stat ... 0892943360