Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[stessier]

We need old guard Izzy to stand behind every speech carrying an XKCD "citation needed" posterboard.

To whom do I expense the lime green speedo?

I'll spring for it if you make this happen.

I'd chip in as well, but this is why GoFundMe exists.

[RunningMn9]

Trump announced that a death toll under 100k would be a huge success. It looks like we're going to plateau around 60k. There's lots of slack left in the budget!

There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.

[Max Peck]

I know that my neighbor (single mom to a not-yet 5 year old) has been using Instacart, but I don't know how far out she has to order to get a delivery slot.

Locally, Saturday morning seems to be a sweet spot for Instacart. In general, on any given morning you might find slots for one or two days sometime next week, but there have been slots open Saturday morning for same-day delivery. My WAG is that it is because shoppers that are working Instacart as a primary job are keeping themselves fully booked up for a week or so in advance, but the ones doing it as a side gig may not be logging into the system and creating slots until the day that they will actually be working, in which case there is a window of opportunity to book a same-day order early on the weekend.

[Zaxxon]

I mean, there's virtually no chance we plateau under 100k at this time, right? As others have pointed out, we're losing thousands/day and it's not yet even slowing, much less plateauing. And all the experts I've read say we will definitely have rises as things open, and almost definitely have a big jump in the fall.

And that a vaccine in 2020 is lala land.

[wonderpug]

Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:



It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.

[LordMortis]

There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.

That's where I'm at. We've slowed thing by not opening them up and this hasn't spread en masse to rural areas yet. When a good day is 1500 deaths and we're already above 50k, you have about a week until we "plateau" and what does plateau even mean? My vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.

[LordMortis]

Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:



It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.

Trump has managed to usher in the modern confederate dream. He's breaking the union.

And that a vaccine in 2020 is lala land.

Reading from the like of Bill Gates, vaccination in 2020 is not lala land. Vaccination that is widely used and mass produced after going through all phases of clinical trials.... So you're saying there's a chance...

[Octavious]

Though my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

This is the part that is driving me crazy. Not well stocked and people are not keeping their distance. I had an experience today where there was a woman weeping at the beef fridge in BJs while she talked on speakerphone about how there was nothing to buy. She was proceeding to pick up and put down the few packages of london broils while 2 of us (we weren't together) stood a good distance away. She moved to the extreme right edge and I darted in and just grabbed one to move on. She screamed at me for violating social distancing. On the well stocked front I went to three stores and couldn't find any butter. I'm so done with this shit.

We're having almost zero issues getting stuff at ShopRite. BJs we will not renew. That had nothing in stock at all. They just aren't keeping up from what I'm seeing. Costco was fine as well. Tons of stuff on the shelves.

I was really worried about bottled water when this started but that has been a non issue. So supply wise at least by me it hasn't been bad.

[Smoove_B]

Reading from the like of Bill Gates, vaccination in 2020 is not lala land. Vaccination that is widely used and mass produced after going through all phases of clinical trials.... So you're saying there's a chance...

I want to be as optimistic as Gates, but I cannot. We've never created a brand new vaccine as fast as they're projecting (12-18 months) and more importantly we've never created a vaccine against a coronavirus (any of them). Now, maybe science will pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but given the potential for real harm with a faulty vaccination, they cannot afford to screw this up.

Vaccination should be part of a plan. It should not be the only plan as it's a long-term strategy.

[Zaxxon]

Reading from the like of Bill Gates, vaccination in 2020 is not lala land. Vaccination that is widely used and mass produced after going through all phases of clinical trials.... So you're saying there's a chance...

I want to be as optimistic as Gates, but I cannot. We've never created a brand new vaccine as fast as they're projecting (12-18 months) and more importantly we've never created a vaccine against a coronavirus (any of them). Now, maybe science will pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but given the potential for real harm with a faulty vaccination, they cannot afford to screw this up.

Vaccination should be part of a plan. It should not be the only plan as it's a long-term strategy.

Also, to be clear, a vaccine that's not through all trials and mass produced doesn't count. So yes, even per Gates, it's not happening this year. Gates has it at 18 months most likely, and 9 months to 2 years as his range in yesterday's Gates notes.

Even 9 months puts us into 2021.

[LordMortis]

I want to be as optimistic as Gates, but I cannot. We've never created a brand new vaccine as fast as they're projecting (12-18 months) and more importantly we've never created a vaccine against a coronavirus (any of them). Now, maybe science will pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but given the potential for real harm with a faulty vaccination, they cannot afford to screw this up.

Vaccination should be part of a plan. It should not be the only plan as it's a long-term strategy.

He didn't make projections but rather said "this is what is going on. This is a possibility. This is what a CEO type position can tell you about what work is being done." He also didn't put a vaccine as the He put it as one pursuit in four phases of a plan along side things like plasma transfusions and the ability to put a repeated testing en masse to slowly move people out of isolation according to a complexity he couldn't foresee. His article was really good for those of us who aren't in the know. Or he was really good at pulling the wool over my eyes.

[El Guapo]

We need old guard Izzy to stand behind every speech carrying an XKCD "citation needed" posterboard.

To whom do I expense the lime green speedo?

I'll spring for it if you make this happen.

I'm sure hepcat has like a dozen lying around.

[Smoove_B]

His article was really good for those of us who aren't in the know. Or he was really good at pulling the wool over my eyes.

Yes, the plasma thing has real potential. But to reinforce, there is still so much we don't know, namely what level of immunity is conferred. It will likely be helpful in treatment and getting people through a medical crisis (which is good). But it's doubtful they'll have long term immunity to illness because of it. So much more data needs to be gathered on what happens to the immune system for the people that contracted the illness - there's so many scattered reports about immunity post-exposure because we're still learning about the virus. I cannot emphasize this enough. We still don't have a firm handle on how it's spreading, environmental survivability, pathology -- we're just not there.

Also, I should state I am in full support of injecting UV light into people, but not drinking bleach. Let's be realistic here.

[El Guapo]

Also, I should state I am in full support of injecting UV light into people, but not drinking bleach. Let's be realistic here.

Geez, it's not *drinking* bleach, it's *injecting* bleach.

And you call yourself a public health professional.

[Smoove_B]

Oh, that was information not for public dissemination. Sorry. Please don't drink bleach.

[LordMortis]

Also, I should state I am in full support of injecting UV light into people, but not drinking bleach. Let's be realistic here.

Geez, it's not *drinking* bleach, it's *injecting* bleach.

And you call yourself a public health professional.

He's just a self confessed fan the Dead Milkmen.

[Jag]

Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:



It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.

This is actually really interesting in how the country would look if (when) the US falls apart.

[malchior]

I mean, there's virtually no chance we plateau under 100k at this time, right? As others have pointed out, we're losing thousands/day and it's not yet even slowing, much less plateauing. And all the experts I've read say we will definitely have rises as things open, and almost definitely have a big jump in the fall.

And that a vaccine in 2020 is lala land.

My rough guess is that 80 - 100K above at best if this is normally distributed and we're at peak (we're probably not). If it's normal and we're past peak then on the way down we should have roughly the same amount of deaths. Not a perfect number but a possible approximation.

A strong caveat though, the deaths are very much lagged. Early studies estimated the mean time from onset to death at *20* days. Based on that, my hunch is that it'll actually be negatively skewed meaning the curve of deaths per day will be weighed towards the right showing as a top of the curve that will be 'flatter' and have a long tail. Worse all that is based on current state. If they lift restrictions well it could very well end up worse.

[Holman]

Trump is now claiming that his comment about injecting disinfectant inside people’s bodies was “sarcastic.”

[malchior]

Trump is now claiming that his comment about injecting disinfectant inside people’s bodies was “sarcastic.”

It is even worse. He is maintaining his evil attack on our nation by saying he said it to bait the press corps. He is claiming they should have known he was kidding and they fell for his bait. He like to point out how all the media wants to do is take him down. There is no way to beat this guy in this game other than not giving him the attention he craves. Sure it probably hurts him in the short-term but he just keeps spinning them from one controversy to the next.

The easy pattern to all this is emerging:

when he says something completely lacking empathy = he was being straightforward and honest
when he says something insane = he was trolling
when he makes up a miracle cure = he was being optimistic
when everyone gets outraged = partisans undermining the president

[Isgrimnur]

Texas doesn’t want Oklahoma. We might be convinced to take Louisiana, but the offer would have to be a good one.

[Defiant]

Map of the various coalitions of states forming to unify their COVID responses:



It's actually not a bad idea to have some united states in America. If only we could take this idea further.

This is actually really interesting in how the country would look if (when) the US falls apart.

It reminds me of the map from Crimson Skies and other fictional post-US worlds

Edit: For comparison

[Smoove_B]

It reminds me of the map from Crimson Skies and other fictional post-US worlds

It's creepy (and now I've tied this thread to gaming)

[YellowKing]

I think those fictional maps vastly overestimate the kinship between North and South Carolina. IE - there ain't any.

In real life, I'm glad Cooper told the rest of the confederacy to F off and joined forces with Virginia and Maryland.

[pr0ner]

https://www.twitter.com/MDMEMA/status/1 ... 0570844162

[Jeff V]

https://www.twitter.com/MDMEMA/status/1 ... 0570844162

Why are you posting fake news? Bottom's up, motherfuckers! MAGA!

[RunningMn9]

My vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.

Maybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.

[LordMortis]

My vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.

Maybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.

I dunno that you misunderstood anything. I just know when using plateau in that context it is weird to me.

And BTW that is one of the largest problems with communications from the executive office of the last three plus years. Words don't mean anything. From a POTUS whom every claimed says it like it is when he was elected, what he says, what his office says, means nothing. It's fucking Alice in Wonderland a Lewis Carol mental exercise.

"I don't know what you mean by 'glory,' " Alice said.
Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. "Of course you don't—till I tell you. I meant 'there's a nice knock-down argument for you!'"
"But 'glory' doesn't mean 'a nice knock-down argument'," Alice objected.
"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less."
"The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
"The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master—that's all."

[Smoove_B]

Early release from the CDC (are you as excited as I am to get these? no?) offering an observation on workplace workplace exposure and spread:

We describe the epidemiology of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in a call center in South Korea. We obtained information on demographic characteristics by using standardized epidemiologic investigation forms. We performed descriptive analyses and reported the results as frequencies and proportions for categoric variables. Of 1,143 persons who were tested for COVID-19, a total of 97 (8.5%, 95% CI 7.0%–10.3%) had confirmed cases. Of these, 94 were working in an 11th-floor call center with 216 employees, translating to an attack rate of 43.5% (95% CI 36.9%–50.4%).

Look at that spot map of cases - look at it. It's suggesting that working indoors in close proximity for long hours near someone that is sick is highly concerning (as if the attack rate of 43.5% wasn't concerning enough).



An excellent observation as well in the discussion:

The role of asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients in spreading the disease is of great concern. Among 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in this study, 4 (4.1%) remained asymptomatic during the 14-days of monitoring. This rate is lower than the 30.8% rate estimated in previous modeling (4). A case-patient series from Beijing, China, indicated that asymptomatic case-patients accounted for 5% (13/262) of patients transferred to a designated COVID-19 hospital (5). Our data might represent the likely proportion of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections in the community setting. We also found that, among 17 household contacts of asymptomatic case-patients, none had secondary infections. Previous reports have postulated that SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic (or presymptomatic) case-patients might become transmissible to others (6); however, given the high degree of self-quarantine and isolation measures that were instituted after March 8 among this cohort, our analyses might have not detected the actual transmissibility in asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients. Robust mass testing of all suspected case-patients might have prevented asymptomatic transmission because asymptomatic persons were given information about their possible infection and therefore might have self-isolated from their household members.

[malchior]

Actual quote by my most idiotic canary in the dumbass Trumpist derp mine. It is becoming hard not to just blast him.

No, no, no you fools. President Trump did not tell people to inject or ingest Lysol to combat COVID-19.

Here's what Trump said during Thursday's coronavirus briefing, which was aired on live television (and I quote):

"I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it'd be interesting to check that. So you're going to have to use medical doctors with — but it sounds interesting to me."

Please point to me, in that exchange, where it says to inject or ingest Lysol.

The mainstream media is reprehensible.

Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?

Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account. You can find examples like this in almost any profession.

Thank you to everyone who's stepping up in their job no matter what they do during the country's time of need.

And thank you president Trump for your leadership and resolve during this crisis.

[malchior]

My vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.

Maybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.

That is what I took it at because to say the death rate stabilizes...means it is linear and it already is pretty much linear at ~2K deaths/day. It is varying up and down but that is the near-time trend slope.

[Zaxxon]

Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?

Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account.

Speaking as someone also in IT, who has also helped step things up to make my org's work-from-home smooth and efficient: fuck that guy.

[pr0ner]

Actual quote by my most idiotic canary in the dumbass Trumpist derp mine. It is becoming hard not to just blast him.

No, no, no you fools. President Trump did not tell people to inject or ingest Lysol to combat COVID-19.

Here's what Trump said during Thursday's coronavirus briefing, which was aired on live television (and I quote):

"I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it'd be interesting to check that. So you're going to have to use medical doctors with — but it sounds interesting to me."

Please point to me, in that exchange, where it says to inject or ingest Lysol.

The mainstream media is reprehensible.

Oddly enough, the actual White House transcript doesn't have a question mark after "almost a cleaning". It's a period.

https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status/12 ... 3535175680

[Skinypupy]

Actual quote by my most idiotic canary in the dumbass Trumpist derp mine. It is becoming hard not to just blast him.

Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?

Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account. You can find examples like this in almost any profession.

Thank you to everyone who's stepping up in their job no matter what they do during the country's time of need.

And thank you president Trump for your leadership and resolve during this crisis.

You have far more restraint than I do. Fuck that guy.

[LordMortis]

Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?

Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account.

Speaking as someone also in IT, who has also helped step things up to make my org's work-from-home smooth and efficient: fuck that guy.

+1. I mean my work could give me a thank you but their thank you is I still have a job and still get a check (though I gotta admit the concessions are not pleasant, even if I have it way better than many)

[El Guapo]

Biden is staking out a bold stance on this issue.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1253751812194070529

[malchior]

The trick for me is that he is my barometer of Trumpists (edit: specifically angry white male ones). That is what a NJ Trumpist in a sea of blue looks like. He got Covid-19. He documented how bad it was then once it was over he was complaining about the shutdown. That said, he doesn't get many comments on the rants. Mostly 1 or 2 likes from other Trumpists. In the end, I restrain myself because I find that glimpse into the cult useful. Otherwise, I would have blocked him long ago.

[Smoove_B]

Oddly enough, the actual White House transcript doesn't have a question mark after "almost a cleaning". It's a period.

I'll be amazed if that transcript still exists by Monday. I think the official guess is that because the FDA officially came out against Trump's "miracle drug" today, he needed to try to come up with a new magic bullet solution. Disinfecting lungs and UV light inserted into your body it is!

I guess next month he'll be appointing anti-vaccination experts and the new coronavirus miracle cure will be ozone therapy and chelation.

[YellowKing]

The mainstream media is reprehensible.

Actually the mainstream just reported Trump's words - primarily "disinfectant." They never claimed Trump said to inject Lysol. The Lysol stuff comes from Facebook memes.

And I think it's funny that every time Trump says something stupid, the Trumpers play it off as "he was kidding" and "you guys can't take a joke." But when the rest of the world makes fun of something Trump said, they suddenly lose their sense of humor.

As a comment on the IT thing, I'm IT as well. And yes, my job enables people to continue to get work done. But I also understand I am fortunate enough to do my job in the comfort of my home at very low risk. The kid working minimum wage at the Taco Bell drive through deserves to be called a hero more than me. So dumbass IT guy, STFU.

Every job is important in its own way. But if you need someone to give you a gold star every time you do something you're getting paid to do, you need to grow up.

[malchior]

The mainstream media is reprehensible.

Actually the mainstream just reported Trump's words - primarily "disinfectant." They never claimed Trump said to inject Lysol. The Lysol stuff comes from Facebook memes.

This is what makes the comments on his post hilarious. They are clearly responding to bubble information but this one is more a self-own because when you read the statement and watch the video...it is clear what he actually was communicating and thought was at the time a great idea. I am trying to find the tweet but Getty Images has an image of him studying the board behind him just prior to these remarks. It is like he came up with them on the spot and in the spirit of all morons who think they will outsmart experts just blurted them out. Not that my idiotic mean spirited canary could even comprehend the levels of irony involved all around.

And then this - this time line would be unbelievable if we weren't living it.

https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1253742258853199872