Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:30 pm
I dunno. A libertarian candidate can pull support from the left and right, and could pull support from Never Trumper Republicans who might otherwise hold their noses and pull the lever for the Democratic candidate. Or it could be that he'll pull support from Never Trumpers who would otherwise not bother voting, or maybe even convince some Republicans who support Trump but have their doubts that he's a better choice.
Or best case scenario, give Republicans who vote Trump because Dems are evil and alternative. But yeah, not going to happen in meaningful numbers.
And when it comes right down to it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a record number of faithless electors from red states that shift blue, leading to Congress determining who sits behind the desk.
99%+ chance he has no effect. Maybe slightly higher chance given that he's from Michigan, so if Michigan is close again, outside chance that he swings a few thousand votes and the election again (another damn reason the electoral college is so f'ing stupid).
If he does have an effect, probably slightly more likely that he helps Biden, but not totally clear (question is how many anti-Trump conservatives vote for him instead of Biden).
El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:21 am
99%+ chance he has no effect. Maybe slightly higher chance given that he's from Michigan, so if Michigan is close again, outside chance that he swings a few thousand votes and the election again (another damn reason the electoral college is so f'ing stupid).
Yep when we know more about state polling I would not be surprised to see a few more "9s" tacked on there.
If he does have an effect, probably slightly more likely that he helps Biden, but not totally clear (question is how many anti-Trump conservatives vote for him instead of Biden).
I think he hurts Biden more but negligible amounts. I find it extremely unlikely that anyone defects from Trump to Amash at this point. In any case, a true spoiler will come from the 'progressive' side of the political world rather than from the right IMO.
It will be interesting to see whether this is just a reversion to the mean, or if his handling of the crisis actually results in a persistent shift in approval/support.
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Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:30 pm
I dunno. A libertarian candidate can pull support from the left and right, and could pull support from Never Trumper Republicans who might otherwise hold their noses and pull the lever for the Democratic candidate. Or it could be that he'll pull support from Never Trumpers who would otherwise not bother voting, or maybe even convince some Republicans who support Trump but have their doubts that he's a better choice.
But honestly, I don't think a third party candidate will get much traction, given the polarized views on this administration, plus the current environment where even the Democratic candidate doesn't get all that much coverage.
The sliver of third-party votes we saw last time were enough to fuck the country for four years and probably longer.
This is not the time for Amash or any other third-party candidate to "make a statement" or whatever. The stakes are too damn high. He knows he can't possibly win, and he can't be certain he'll hurt Trump (presumably his goal) more than help him.
If he does have an effect, probably slightly more likely that he helps Biden, but not totally clear (question is how many anti-Trump conservatives vote for him instead of Biden).
I think he hurts Biden more but negligible amounts. I find it extremely unlikely that anyone defects from Trump to Amash at this point. In any case, a true spoiler will come from the 'progressive' side of the political world rather than from the right IMO.
I got the direction right but the magnitude wrong. The good thing is this was awhile ago and before Trump killed probably a 100K people while praising himself nightly. Still why take the risk?
“In 2019, a Detroit News poll found Biden leading Trump in Michigan, a state that has grown rockier for the president, by 12 points. With Amash added as an option, Biden’s lead shrunk to six points, with some independents and Republicans moving away from the Democrat.”
El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:30 pm
It'd be nice if we had more recent polling on that than May 2019.
Yeah. The whole thing feels not smart. Amash has no chance of winning even his home state but instead could tip it to Trump. He almost certainly doesn't hurt Trump. I don't get the math here.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:30 pm
It'd be nice if we had more recent polling on that than May 2019.
Yeah. The whole thing feels not smart. Amash has no chance of winning even his home state but instead could tip it to Trump. He almost certainly doesn't hurt Trump. I don't get the math here.
I'm curious what Amash's thinking / goals are with this run, given that I assume that he realizes that he can't win.
But I'm less convinced that this will help Trump. I don't think many left-wing people will vote for him. In my mind the pools of Amash voters is mostly right-leaning low-information voters who are unhappy or uncomfortable with Trump. Some percentage of them will ultimately talk themselves into voting for Trump, and some percentage will ultimately vote for Biden. Some percentage of each would likely ultimately switch to Amash. Unclear to me whether he'd divert more Biden or Trump people. This poll helps, but it's one poll and it's fairly old.
malchior wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:20 pm
I got the direction right but the magnitude wrong. The good thing is this was awhile ago and before Trump killed probably a 100K people while praising himself nightly. Still why take the risk?
“In 2019, a Detroit News poll found Biden leading Trump in Michigan, a state that has grown rockier for the president, by 12 points. With Amash added as an option, Biden’s lead shrunk to six points, with some independents and Republicans moving away from the Democrat.”
Don't forget that Johnson got as high as 13% in some polls, and only ended up getting about 3.3%. Most people that toy with the idea of voting for third party candidates don't end up voting for them.
I wonder if it's possible that Amash's plan is to drop out before the election and endorse Biden after focusing on attacking Trump during his campaign. That would probably be a safe way to hurt Trump (though, again, it probably wouldn't make a significant difference).
Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:40 pm
I wonder if it's possible that Amash's plan is to drop out before the election and endorse Biden after focusing on attacking Trump during his campaign. That would probably be a safe way to hurt Trump (though, again, it probably wouldn't make a significant difference).
My guess is that what's driving this is that Amash can't get reelected in the House (doomed among the GOP because he's anti-Trump, doomed among Democrats because he's conservative), but he wants to do something instead of just giving up. This is something, so he's doing that.
Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:40 pm
I wonder if it's possible that Amash's plan is to drop out before the election and endorse Biden after focusing on attacking Trump during his campaign. That would probably be a safe way to hurt Trump (though, again, it probably wouldn't make a significant difference).
My guess is that what's driving this is that Amash can't get reelected in the House (doomed among the GOP because he's anti-Trump, doomed among Democrats because he's conservative), but he wants to do something instead of just giving up. This is something, so he's doing that.
Amash is wildly popular locally but his DeVos funding has been taken away due to his anti-Trump stance. That's the big reason he's not running for reelection.
I've never voted R and never will but I always said I'd vote for Amash if he didn't have that R next to his name.
Two more local idiots running for something. They share being loud, rude, and guns in their ads. And one is a girl. Both lick the orange moron's ass in their ads and play on fears. I flip to something else instantly when I hear him say his name or her say "I have a message for Pelosi"....click!
Last edited by Daehawk on Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
“I don’t believe the polls,” Trump said. “I believe the people of this country are smart. And I don’t think that they will put a man in who’s incompetent.”
That story is so clearly a response to the reports that Trump had severe meltdowns over the polling. Which is confirmed if you pay attention to Twitter. Anything that says he brushed off something negative...come on. The man is pathologically incapable of that.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:30 pm
It'd be nice if we had more recent polling on that than May 2019.
Yeah. The whole thing feels not smart. Amash has no chance of winning even his home state but instead could tip it to Trump. He almost certainly doesn't hurt Trump. I don't get the math here.
I'm curious what Amash's thinking / goals are with this run, given that I assume that he realizes that he can't win.
But I'm less convinced that this will help Trump. I don't think many left-wing people will vote for him. In my mind the pools of Amash voters is mostly right-leaning low-information voters who are unhappy or uncomfortable with Trump. Some percentage of them will ultimately talk themselves into voting for Trump, and some percentage will ultimately vote for Biden. Some percentage of each would likely ultimately switch to Amash. Unclear to me whether he'd divert more Biden or Trump people. This poll helps, but it's one poll and it's fairly old.
Hard to say. Too many have abandoned reason. Bernie supporters migrating to Trump makes no sense but that's the reality we live in. There are too many here who are convinced both that Trump is unacceptable but that the democratic party are a single organized entity out there to destroy our freedom and our way of life. Amash gives them an out they are looking for not to take a chance on Biden. To say in good conscience they voted but didn't vote for Trump. OtOH, Amash is beloved by many and many would never even consider voting D. Instinctively I would say he pulls more from Trump than from Biden but I have no faith anymore. So many of those who loved Amash because reasons now seem to only hate democrats worse than republicans because FREEDOM!!!! or immigrants or taxes or health care (yes health care)
I'm less concerned about Bernie supporters voting for Trump and more concerned about them staying home out of spite. This election was going to be dependent on turnout even before the virus. Now it's going to be even more critical. Every butt-hurt Bernie Bro sitting at home is effectively a Trump endorsement.
I know a couple of die-hard Bernie fans that are trashing Biden every chance they get. To what end, I have no idea. But I have zero confidence they're going to cast a ballot for him in November.
Yeah, I was just coming here to post this. This is a great summary of the significant issues with Reade's accusations (includes a lot of stuff that I didn't know). Also why unless and until there are additional accusations I don't think this is ultimately going to matter.
I do worry about a couple things, though: (1) this giving new reasons for Sanders supporters to not support Biden; and (2) IF this is part of some sort of organized dirty trick by the GOP and/or Russia, I wonder if there's more coming. That makes me feel unduly paranoid, but I don't think it's out of the question.
"I just wonder if it's real," Trump said of the videos. "That's a hell of a video."
"I did have one very brief meeting on it," he said in the interview. "But people are saying they're seeing UFOs. Do I believe it? Not particularly."
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
There are, as with Ms. Broaddrick, reasons to doubt her story; there aren’t good reasons not to hear her out. As The Times’s executive editor, Dean Baquet, told me in an interview two week ago, Ms. Reade has “standing.”
And yet, Ms. Reade told me Wednesday that the only offers she’s had to appear on television have come from Fox News, including a call from the prime time host Sean Hannity. She has so far turned them down.
“I’ve been trying to just kind of wait to get someone in the middle,” she said in a phone interview. “I don’t want to be pigeonholed as a progressive, I don’t want to be pigeonholed as a Trump supporter.”
CNN and MSNBC, whose DNA — even in a pandemic — is politics, have covered her on their websites but haven’t put her on camera.
“They’re not offering to put me on TV — they’re just doing stories,” Ms. Reade told me. “No anchors, no nothing like that.” She’d most like to tell her story to a network television anchor she admires — CBS’s Gayle King is one, she said — but they haven’t called.
So she’s planning to accept Fox News’s offer for an interview to air this weekend, she said, with “someone a little more up the middle.” She declined to say who, but a person who has spoken to her said Ms. Reade is in talks with Chris Wallace.
The booking would be a coup for the conservative network, and give its on-air hosts a club with which to beat a mainstream media that can’t quite explain why it won’t book Ms. Reade, while Julie Swetnick, a woman with a shaky claim against a Supreme Court nominee, got airtime during a prime time evening broadcast.
The other (well, maybe other other other) thing I worry about with Reade is, Barr's going to open some criminal probe of Biden before the election, right? Seems like this could be a plausible pick (with some creative / extremely aggressive statute of limitations arguments).
Trump actually pretends to believe, too, so you're not technically agreeing until one of the Trump whisperers explains on FOX News. For a President who "says what he means," Trump spews quite a lot of nonsense.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Why a Liberal Democrat Supports Vladimir Putin By: Alexandra Tara Reade
...
Through my lens, President Putin brought a chaotic and failed nation to become a vibrant, creative, economic force within a decade. I don’t care what your politics; just admit that his sheer, calculated vision and willful energy brought Russia back to be a world power. Now, I said this to a friend recently, she waved her glass of Merlot at me and began the “anti-Russia” lecture we all have come in America to memorize, a tale of spies, oligarchs, rigged elections and murders. I start to drift. I listen to the Sade song playing in the background “The Sweetest Taboo” as she speaks. When she finishes, I say, “Well, he is very good to women, holds them in high regard.” She starts to protest then stops and says, “yes, yes, but…” She trails off no doubt thinking of the American President’s obvious disdain and objectification of all women. I shrug. Maybe, America is on some wrong side of very big issues and we need to look at our own actions.
Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:36 am
Has anyone seen this circulating yet?
Why a Liberal Democrat Supports Vladimir Putin By: Alexandra Tara Reade
...
Through my lens, President Putin brought a chaotic and failed nation to become a vibrant, creative, economic force within a decade. I don’t care what your politics; just admit that his sheer, calculated vision and willful energy brought Russia back to be a world power. Now, I said this to a friend recently, she waved her glass of Merlot at me and began the “anti-Russia” lecture we all have come in America to memorize, a tale of spies, oligarchs, rigged elections and murders. I start to drift. I listen to the Sade song playing in the background “The Sweetest Taboo” as she speaks. When she finishes, I say, “Well, he is very good to women, holds them in high regard.” She starts to protest then stops and says, “yes, yes, but…” She trails off no doubt thinking of the American President’s obvious disdain and objectification of all women. I shrug. Maybe, America is on some wrong side of very big issues and we need to look at our own actions.
Yup. When this came up Reade deleted it, and then claimed that it was being taken out of context, and was part of a fictional novel that she was writing. Which, I mean, it's clearly not. And Reade's implausible explanations for some of the issues with her story are itself a red flag.
Ah, ok. I hadn't see it mentioned until today. There's someone (multiple people?) going through her Twitter account and finding all kinds of weird Tweets that have odd syntax/phrasing. I find it difficult to discern anything from reading a Tweet as I always feel like I'm chopping up how I'd speak or write normally to fit within character limits. Either way, it continues to interject chaos, which I think is the goal.
Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:50 am
Ah, ok. I hadn't see it mentioned until today. There's someone (multiple people?) going through her Twitter account and finding all kinds of weird Tweets that have odd syntax/phrasing. I find it difficult to discern anything from reading a Tweet as I always feel like I'm chopping up how I'd speak or write normally to fit within character limits. Either way, it continues to interject chaos, which I think is the goal.
I've seen that too. Her tweets really do sound like someone writing inexpertly in a second language: missing articles, mismatched verb tenses, common idioms misused.
It's possible that she's just sloppy on Twitter, but she's a published writer with a law degree, and it seems odd that she would represent herself so poorly in public statements. It seems too much of a cartoon conspiracy to assume someone foreign is writing her tweets, but it does suggest someone who's somehow not in full control of her expression.
Blackhawk wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 pm
And when it comes right down to it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a record number of faithless electors from red states that shift blue, leading to Congress determining who sits behind the desk.
And a Biden/Pence White House.
FYI, if the election goes to congress because neither got over 269 EV, Republicans get to decide both the President and the VP. The House determines the presidency, but each state gets one vote, and while the Democrats hold a majority of seats, they don't hold the majorities of a majority of the states.
Blackhawk wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 pm
And when it comes right down to it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a record number of faithless electors from red states that shift blue, leading to Congress determining who sits behind the desk.
And a Biden/Pence White House.
FYI, if the election goes to congress because neither got over 269 EV, Republicans get to decide both the President and the VP. The House determines the presidency, but each state gets one vote, and while the Democrats hold a majority of seats, they don't hold the majorities of a majority of the states.
So what you're saying is the House doesn't decide the Presidency.
