Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Skinypupy]

I'm sure the GOP would have been totally fine if Obama had withheld aid to tornado-ravaged red states unless they implemented gun control measures, right?

[RunningMn9]

True, I shouldn't have said it's as bad. That's clearly not true. But it will feel to some as though it is, and from a mental health perspective it might as well be--years or decades of work down the tubes, possibly effectively ending dreams permanently.

All's I'm saying is there's a subset of folks who I could empathize with should they be protesting. Which perhaps is a worthless position for me to post about, since it's largely not those folks doing the protesting.

And I'm fully in agreement that financially assisting these folks would have been the way to go. Rather than rewarding airlines for ruinous stock buybacks and putting out a PPP that largely benefitted those businesses not in the most dire of straits.

That’s all I was trying to get at. I 100% agree with you that folks going through these things absolutely deserve our empathy and help. Potentially killing them or their loved ones, or letting them kill others - probably isn’t such a smart idea. That’s all.

I cannot imagine the strain being placed on many people through this. And if those folks want to protest, I get it.

They aren’t the assholes with “I need a haircut” signs.

[LawBeefaroni]

Blue states want aid? Well, then they're going to need to do something about those illegals:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1255224509247954944

Trump says he wants blue states to give him "sanctuary-city adjustments" in exchange for federal financial relief

Not even hiding it anymore. Racist POS, being a racist POS.

And I want "border wall adjustments" before I pay my federal taxes. Oh, it doesn't work that way? Who knew?

[RunningMn9]

Regarding Pence and not wearing a mask, he said it was because he wanted to look them "in the eye".

That's how bad things are in the administration. No one wants to tell the VP that's now how masks work. But seriously, we all know he's not wearing it because it would have hurt Trump's fe-fes.

But they had masks on...

[Octavious]

Meanwhile whenever I leave my house there are more and more Trump flags in front of houses. I just want to leave a flaming bag of crap on every one of their doorsteps.

[RunningMn9]

So far, the dire predictions for Sweden haven't come true. They have about twice the cases and deaths of other Scandinavian countries, but they have twice the population, so it's not out of line.

As has been noted several times, the Swedes themselves took it very seriously and mostly enforced a self lockdown (from what I had read anyway). There have been a number of articles written on it, and the advantages they enjoy that makes it easier for them to do the right thing without an official order from the government.

Not all populations are created equally.

[LawBeefaroni]

So far, the dire predictions for Sweden haven't come true. They have about twice the cases and deaths of other Scandinavian countries, but they have twice the population, so it's not out of line.

As has been noted several times, the Swedes themselves took it very seriously and mostly enforced a self lockdown (from what I had read anyway). There have been a number of articles written on it, and the advantages they enjoy that makes it easier for them to do the right thing without an official order from the government.

Not all populations are created equally.

This is how we do lockdown.

[Smoove_B]

Speaking of other populations, let's see what happened when Germany loosened up their lockdown:

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate has risen following the easing of its lockdown, raising concerns that most social distancing restrictions will have to remain in place to control the outbreak.

The number of people infected with Covid-19 by each carrier had risen from about 0.7 to 0.96 since the country began lifting restrictions on 20 April, said Lothar Wieler, the head of the Robert Koch Institute.

Although that number means the epidemic is still under control, it gives the German government little leeway to remove more restrictions as the figure, which is also known as the reproduction number, must remain at or below 1.0 to contain the virus.

Counterpoint!

“Despite suggestions that cases of Covid-19 have started to increase again in Germany following relaxation of its lockdown measures, this does not appear to be the case,” Professor Hunter said, arguing that the rise in cases earlier this week was “almost certainly” due to testing levels dropping over the weekend.

“Rather than look at individual days and make inaccurate conclusions, it is always better to look at the smoothed data.”

He said the “underlying trend” of cases in Germany was still coming down on Wednesday.

I guess we'll see - such is the nature of a moving target and an unfolding experiment.

[malchior]

So far, the dire predictions for Sweden haven't come true. They have about twice the cases and deaths of other Scandinavian countries, but they have twice the population, so it's not out of line.

As has been noted several times, the Swedes themselves took it very seriously and mostly enforced a self lockdown (from what I had read anyway). There have been a number of articles written on it, and the advantages they enjoy that makes it easier for them to do the right thing without an official order from the government.

Not all populations are created equally.

This is definitely not holding up as more evidence comes in. They are seeing 5x the death rate of the rest of all the Scandinavian nations and have the 10th worst death rate in the world now. For that price paid in lives the Chief Epidemiologist of Sweden suggests they are going to achieve herd immunity soon. Since there is no knowledge on whether immunity is conferred this is at best a controversial claim. They don't have antibody testing as well. According to some of the reporting their proclamations are essentially based on assumptions that haven't been validated (e.g. the aforementioned immunity and case fatality rates) They aren't being led by science; instead it has become a stubbornly dogmatic stance.

At face value, Sweden is not doing well. By April 22, its mortality rates from COVID-19 were the tenth highest in the world, with 17.3 deaths per 100,000. By comparison, its neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland ranked 17th, 22nd and 31st, with 6.4, 3.4 and 2.6 deaths per 100,000.

Protecting a population from becoming infected with aggressive containment is like protecting a forest in the path of wildfire – unless continuous fire fighting efforts are made, the forest will eventually burn. Aggressive contact tracing, testing, quarantine and lockdowns minimise contagion and have substantially reduced early fatalities from COVID-19.

But unless those who remain uninfected are protected until effective pharmacological interventions (vaccines, prophylactics and therapeutics) come online, the ultimate burden of deaths may be the same in countries who opt for lockdown as in those who adopted more liberal containment strategies.

How close Sweden is to herd immunity is unknown, because random seroprevalence testing, which requires testing for both the virus and antibodies (to detect past infection), has not yet been undertaken nationwide, although plans are afoot. Nevertheless, the national public health agency, Folkhälsomyndigheten, and Swedish military sampled 738 Stockholmers and found that 2.5% were infected between March 26 and April 3 with SARS-CoV-2.


How Close Is Sweden to Herd Immunity From the Coronavirus?
.By Paul W. FranksApril 27, 2020
How Close Is Sweden to Herd Immunity From the Coronavirus?(Jessica Gow/TT News Agency via AP)

Many countries around the world are now facing the difficult decision of when and how to ease lockdown restrictions due to the novel coronavirus. In the absence of a vaccine, it is likely there will be new waves of the epidemic, unless enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity (assuming those who have contracted the virus retain enough protection and the virus does not mutate into a distinct strain) – estimated to be around 60%.

Unfortunately, government advisers in the UK, France and many other countries suggest only a few percent of the population have so far been infected. But does this add up? Like the proverbial “canary in the cage”, Sweden, which is encouraging social distancing but has not fully locked down, could guide the world. Here, the authorities claim the country is rapidly approaching herd immunity.

At face value, Sweden is not doing well. By April 22, its mortality rates from COVID-19 were the tenth highest in the world, with 17.3 deaths per 100,000. By comparison, its neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland ranked 17th, 22nd and 31st, with 6.4, 3.4 and 2.6 deaths per 100,000.

Protecting a population from becoming infected with aggressive containment is like protecting a forest in the path of wildfire – unless continuous fire fighting efforts are made, the forest will eventually burn. Aggressive contact tracing, testing, quarantine and lockdowns minimise contagion and have substantially reduced early fatalities from COVID-19.

But unless those who remain uninfected are protected until effective pharmacological interventions (vaccines, prophylactics and therapeutics) come online, the ultimate burden of deaths may be the same in countries who opt for lockdown as in those who adopted more liberal containment strategies.

How close Sweden is to herd immunity is unknown, because random seroprevalence testing, which requires testing for both the virus and antibodies (to detect past infection), has not yet been undertaken nationwide, although plans are afoot. Nevertheless, the national public health agency, Folkhälsomyndigheten, and Swedish military sampled 738 Stockholmers and found that 2.5% were infected between March 26 and April 3 with SARS-CoV-2.

Mathematical models have also been performed to estimate the community spread of SARS-CoV-2. In analyses conducted by a leading UK group, 3.1% of the Swedish population was estimated to be infected by March 28. This contrasts with the much higher proportions estimated for Stockholm by Tom Britton, a leading Swedish academic working with Folkhälsomyndigheten, who suggests up to half of the capital’s population will be infected by the beginning of May – and the rest of the country may follow suit quickly.

But how can you get such different estimates? As pointed out elsewhere by Britton, many of the models’ assumptions, particularly the case fatality rate (the proportion of those infected who die as a result), are uncertain. That’s because testing has been focused on cases who are serious enough to end up in hospital and health care workers. But we don’t know the number of people who suffer mild or no symptoms – these have to be estimated through simulations.

[noxiousdog]

I guess we'll see - such is the nature of a moving target and an unfolding experiment.

Yes. And unfortunately it is an experiment. There's areas we can point to that are disasters, but there's certainly some flexibility in other areas. Contingent, of course, on whether the data is being treated seriously. I'm willing to give lawmakers, like Greg Abott, who have shown they are willing to lock it down the benefit of the doubt. Dan Patrick (Texas Lt. Gov) gets no such respect from me. I couldn't care less what he says.

[El Guapo]

It's probably good for the world that Sweden is taking the approach it is, insofar as it seems to provide another data point as we're calibrating lockdowns. Unclear whether it's good for Sweden, though.

[noxiousdog]

This is definitely not holding up as more evidence comes in. They are seeing 5x the death rate of the rest of all the Scandinavian nations and have the 10th worst death rate in the world now. For that price paid in lives the Chief Epidemiologist of Sweden suggests they are going to achieve herd immunity soon. Since there is no knowledge on whether immunity is conferred this is at best a controversial claim. They don't have antibody testing as well. According to some of the reporting their proclamations are essentially based on assumptions that haven't been validated (e.g. the aforementioned immunity and case fatality rates) They aren't being led by science; instead it has become a stubbornly dogmatic stance.

They are seeing 3x of Denmark and 5x of the lower population density of Norway and Finland. But it will most certainly be over sooner, and if they aren't overloading their hospitals, it would theoretically even out. The idea isn't you keep people disease free; it's that you flatten the curve.

[LawBeefaroni]

It's probably good for the world that Sweden is taking the approach it is, insofar as it seems to provide another data point as we're calibrating lockdowns. Unclear whether it's good for Sweden, though.

Strange days when Sweden is to the world what Georgia is to the USA.

[malchior]

This is definitely not holding up as more evidence comes in. They are seeing 5x the death rate of the rest of all the Scandinavian nations and have the 10th worst death rate in the world now. For that price paid in lives the Chief Epidemiologist of Sweden suggests they are going to achieve herd immunity soon. Since there is no knowledge on whether immunity is conferred this is at best a controversial claim. They don't have antibody testing as well. According to some of the reporting their proclamations are essentially based on assumptions that haven't been validated (e.g. the aforementioned immunity and case fatality rates) They aren't being led by science; instead it has become a stubbornly dogmatic stance.

They are seeing 3x of Denmark and 5x of the lower population density of Norway and Finland. But it will most certainly be over sooner, and if they aren't overloading their hospitals, it would theoretically even out. The idea isn't you keep people disease free; it's that you flatten the curve.

Sure but there is no reason to believe it will even out...yet. The whole thing is built on a bunch of assumptions that aren't validated. They'll be achieving herd immunity in weeks? What is there is no immunity? What if instead of 50% infected it is actually 10%. They don't know anything. It is a big experiment. Maybe it'll work out but they are taking one hell of a risk.

[El Guapo]

This is definitely not holding up as more evidence comes in. They are seeing 5x the death rate of the rest of all the Scandinavian nations and have the 10th worst death rate in the world now. For that price paid in lives the Chief Epidemiologist of Sweden suggests they are going to achieve herd immunity soon. Since there is no knowledge on whether immunity is conferred this is at best a controversial claim. They don't have antibody testing as well. According to some of the reporting their proclamations are essentially based on assumptions that haven't been validated (e.g. the aforementioned immunity and case fatality rates) They aren't being led by science; instead it has become a stubbornly dogmatic stance.

They are seeing 3x of Denmark and 5x of the lower population density of Norway and Finland. But it will most certainly be over sooner, and if they aren't overloading their hospitals, it would theoretically even out. The idea isn't you keep people disease free; it's that you flatten the curve.

Part of the issue is that people aren't in total agreement about *why* we're doing the lockdown. To what extent is it just to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming hospitals, to what extent is it to buy time to develop treatments / a vaccine / testing and tracing, etc. The rationale can impact how and for how long you want to maintain the shutdowns.

[noxiousdog]

Part of the issue is that people aren't in total agreement about *why* we're doing the lockdown. To what extent is it just to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming hospitals, to what extent is it to buy time to develop treatments / a vaccine / testing and tracing, etc. The rationale can impact how and for how long you want to maintain the shutdowns.

It is all of that, but primarily it is flattening the curve. There's no chance we can stay in lockdown for the months required to get a vaccine. Infrastructure would fall apart. We are already seeing significant impacts to the global food supply, though I suspect that degree of prediction is premature.

[noxiousdog]

Sure but there is no reason to believe it will even out...yet. The whole thing is built on a bunch of assumptions that aren't validated. They'll be achieving herd immunity in weeks? What is there is no immunity? What if instead of 50% infected it is actually 10%. They don't know anything. It is a big experiment. Maybe it'll work out but they are taking one hell of a risk.

Yes. But we can pretty much say it's not catastrophic. Yes, they will likely have more people die than other Scandinavian countries; even adjusted for population and time. But it's not even as bad as the UK who has a per 100,000 of 32 or Belgium's 65 compared to Sweden's 22.

[El Guapo]

Part of the issue is that people aren't in total agreement about *why* we're doing the lockdown. To what extent is it just to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming hospitals, to what extent is it to buy time to develop treatments / a vaccine / testing and tracing, etc. The rationale can impact how and for how long you want to maintain the shutdowns.

It is all of that, but primarily it is flattening the curve. There's no chance we can stay in lockdown for the months required to get a vaccine. Infrastructure would fall apart. We are already seeing significant impacts to the global food supply, though I suspect that degree of prediction is premature.

I know. In theory it could be feasible to shutdown long enough to get comprehensive testing and contact tracing in place, which would then help safely ease the lockdown. But part of the problem is that the administration is too incompetent to get that set up and running. So we seem to be hurtling toward haphazard and non-data driven reopenings (and probably into repeated shutdowns in some places).

[noxiousdog]

I know. In theory it could be feasible to shutdown long enough to get comprehensive testing and contact tracing in place, which would then help safely ease the lockdown. But part of the problem is that the administration is too incompetent to get that set up and running. So we seem to be hurtling toward haphazard and non-data driven reopenings (and probably into repeated shutdowns in some places).

I can only speak to the ones nearby, but I think Texas has a good plan and is data driven.

[El Guapo]

I know. In theory it could be feasible to shutdown long enough to get comprehensive testing and contact tracing in place, which would then help safely ease the lockdown. But part of the problem is that the administration is too incompetent to get that set up and running. So we seem to be hurtling toward haphazard and non-data driven reopenings (and probably into repeated shutdowns in some places).

I can only speak to the ones nearby, but I think Texas has a good plan and is data driven.

Yeah, I think the flaw is mainly at the federal level (and probably a few states as well, I suspect).

[RunningMn9]

I feel compelled to point out that no matter what I say, it is unfathomable to me that this can go on much longer. Like, I can’t be sitting here in August, still in the middle of a statewide lockdown, let alone a semi-national lockdown.

[Smoove_B]

I feel compelled to point out that no matter what I say, it is unfathomable to me that this can go on much longer. Like, I can’t be sitting here in August, still in the middle of a statewide lockdown, let alone a semi-national lockdown.

It will be different in August - I guarantee it. However, it's not going to be "normal" by any means. NJ should be open-ish but my gut feeling is that all energy will be focused on trying to maintain minimal function without risking outbreaks. Encouraging working from home. No movie, concerts, camps, malls, or sport events. Masks at all times while in public. I do not see schools fully resuming in September. I suspect they might try split half-days to keep classrooms spaced out. I don't think colleges can safely resume, particularly those that rely on dorms. I think restaurants will want to offer dine-in but the actual number of people willing to do so will be diminished. It will be less restrictive in August but oddly feel more surreal as we come to terms with what life will be like moving forward. I actually believe stress will be higher in August because we'll be wading out into more limited social interactions and increasing risk. There is no quick solution; there is no magic bullet. Shutting down was a sprint; Now we're in for the marathon.

[Zaxxon]

I feel compelled to point out that no matter what I say, it is unfathomable to me that this can go on much longer. Like, I can’t be sitting here in August, still in the middle of a statewide lockdown, let alone a semi-national lockdown.

It will be different in August - I guarantee it. However, it's not going to be "normal" by any means. NJ should be open-ish but my gut feeling is that all energy will be focused on trying to maintain minimal function without risking outbreaks. Encouraging working from home. No movie, concerts, camps, malls, or sport events. Masks at all times while in public. I do not see schools fully resuming in September. I suspect they might try split half-days to keep classrooms spaced out. I don't think colleges can safely resume, particularly those that rely on dorms. I think restaurants will want to offer dine-in but the actual number of people willing to do so will be diminished. It will be less restrictive in August but oddly feel more surreal as we come to terms with what life will be like moving forward. I actually believe stress will be higher in August because we'll be wading out into more limited social interactions and increasing risk. There is no quick solution; there is no magic bullet. Shutting down was a sprint; Now we're in for the marathon.

[LawBeefaroni]

[Shutting down was a sprint; Now we're in for the marathon.

I'd say shutting down was the car crash and now we're heading into surgery.

[malchior]

I feel compelled to point out that no matter what I say, it is unfathomable to me that this can go on much longer. Like, I can’t be sitting here in August, still in the middle of a statewide lockdown, let alone a semi-national lockdown.

It will be different in August - I guarantee it. However, it's not going to be "normal" by any means. NJ should be open-ish but my gut feeling is that all energy will be focused on trying to maintain minimal function without risking outbreaks. Encouraging working from home. No movie, concerts, camps, malls, or sport events. Masks at all times while in public. I do not see schools fully resuming in September. I suspect they might try split half-days to keep classrooms spaced out. I don't think colleges can safely resume, particularly those that rely on dorms. I think restaurants will want to offer dine-in but the actual number of people willing to do so will be diminished. It will be less restrictive in August but oddly feel more surreal as we come to terms with what life will be like moving forward. I actually believe stress will be higher in August because we'll be wading out into more limited social interactions and increasing risk. There is no quick solution; there is no magic bullet. Shutting down was a sprint; Now we're in for the marathon.

Right and then we'll have to see what compliance with lesser restrictions is. My hunch is not good. My friends own a house down in Asbury Park and they're pretty sure they won't even hit the beach this year even if allowed. The half-joking plan is for them to sit on the far side of my pool.

[Smoove_B]

Right and then we'll have to see what compliance with lesser restrictions is. My hunch is not good. My friends own a house down in Asbury Park and they're pretty sure they won't even hit the beach this year even if allowed. The half-joking plan is for them to sit on the far side of my pool.

I know shore towns are scrambling to try and figure out how to open beaches and boardwalk areas for the summer, but I don't see it happening. The reason is people. People are the worst and all it will take is for a significant group to ignore social distancing on a beach or to ignore rules to not gather on the boardwalk and that will be it. With the announcement that all NJ State and County parks are opening this weekend (along with golf courses),I fully expect to see it happen. And maybe that's the plan - to open the parks now to test what happens. The footage I saw from NYC during yesterday's Blue Angel flyover was all the confirmation I needed. This isn't easy to do (stay separated; wear masks) - particularly when it feels like it's not doing anything. Unlike RM9, I still don't know a single person that has the disease. I don't have a family member working on the front lines; it's about as abstract for me as it could be (well, ignoring what I know), and yet every time I leave the house I operate like I'm in The Hot Zone.

[El Guapo]

I feel compelled to point out that no matter what I say, it is unfathomable to me that this can go on much longer. Like, I can’t be sitting here in August, still in the middle of a statewide lockdown, let alone a semi-national lockdown.

It will be different in August - I guarantee it. However, it's not going to be "normal" by any means. NJ should be open-ish but my gut feeling is that all energy will be focused on trying to maintain minimal function without risking outbreaks. Encouraging working from home. No movie, concerts, camps, malls, or sport events. Masks at all times while in public. I do not see schools fully resuming in September. I suspect they might try split half-days to keep classrooms spaced out. I don't think colleges can safely resume, particularly those that rely on dorms. I think restaurants will want to offer dine-in but the actual number of people willing to do so will be diminished. It will be less restrictive in August but oddly feel more surreal as we come to terms with what life will be like moving forward. I actually believe stress will be higher in August because we'll be wading out into more limited social interactions and increasing risk. There is no quick solution; there is no magic bullet. Shutting down was a sprint; Now we're in for the marathon.

The key question on everyone's mind is - will my family be able to make our trip to Disney World at the end of August?

[Smoove_B]

The key question on everyone's mind is - will my family be able to make our trip to Disney World at the end of August?

In a world of logic, no, theme parks would not be open in August. But this is Florida so I'm guessing they'll be open and telling you that there's no refunds or exchanges if you opt not to go.

[raydude]

The key question on everyone's mind is - will my family be able to make our trip to Disney World at the end of August?

In a world of logic, no, theme parks would not be open in August. But this is Florida so I'm guessing they'll be open and telling you that there's no refunds or exchanges if you opt not to go.

I'm going to go with no on Disney World. They are a private company and there is no way anyone can say the Mouse House is essential services. And since this is Disney they know the public relations catastrophe that will happen if they open and families die after visiting.

[Smoove_B]

I'm going to go with no on Disney World. They are a private company and there is no way anyone can say the Mouse House is essential services. And since this is Disney they know the public relations catastrophe that will happen if they open and families die after visiting.

Interestingly though (because money drives all decision making now), it looks like they might be working behind the scenes to figure out what is possible. Some might say it's a whole new world - A new fantastic point of view (from behind a mask).

[RunningMn9]

Unlike RM9, I still don't know a single person that has the disease.

This is shocking to me.

[Isgrimnur]

I know of people within two miles of me that have it, but I do not know anyone that has it.

[Smoove_B]

/sad

Would you prefer longer term sadness projections?

The first trend concerns deficits and their corollary risks: debts and defaults.
A second factor is the demographic time bomb in advanced economies.
A third issue is the growing risk of deflation.
A fourth (related) factor will be currency debasement.
A fifth issue is the broader digital disruption of the economy.
This points to the sixth major factor: de-globalization.
The backlash against democracy will reinforce this trend.
This points to an eighth factor: the geostrategic standoff between the U.S. and China.
A final risk that cannot be ignored is environmental disruption, which, as the COVID-19 crisis has shown, can wreak far more economic havoc than a financial crisis.

EDIT: Maybe this is better sadness for the Viral Economy thread

[Defiant]

I'm going to go with no on Disney World. They are a private company and there is no way anyone can say the Mouse House is essential services. And since this is Disney they know the public relations catastrophe that will happen if they open and families die after visiting.

Interestingly though (because money drives all decision making now), it looks like they might be working behind the scenes to figure out what is possible. Some might say it's a whole new world - A new fantastic point of view (from behind a mask).

Well, as much as we would like to be where the people are, before they can let us be their guest and let us be part of their Disney World, they've got to be one jump ahead of the virus.

[stessier]

I technically don't know anyone who has had it. We had someone at work who sure looked like they had it (and it was looking really bad for them), but they tested negative (and eventually recovered). So it depends if you believe the test.

[LawBeefaroni]

We're still at peak and my little hospital has the 4th most hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the city. We are not the 4th largest in the city, we aren't even top 10.

We're just in a high density manual labor neighborhood. With a lot of old people.

[malchior]

Unlike RM9, I still don't know a single person that has the disease.

This is shocking to me.

Same here. I know people all over the place in NJ and even outside NJ who got the disease. I've known 1 who died and 1 who I'm not sure will make it. He has been on a vent since the end of the 3rd week of March aside from a few days off it in the middle. Also, my town has about 2% of the population with known positive cases and about 20 deaths.

[Smoove_B]

I do like how the Atlantic is out of fucks to give:

Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice - The state is about to find out how many people need to lose their lives to shore up the economy.

...

Public-health officials broadly agree that reopening businesses—especially those that require close physical contact—in places where the virus has already spread will kill people. Even so, many other states are quietly considering similar moves to Georgia’s. Most are taking a more measured approach—waiting a bit longer to reopen, setting testing or infection benchmarks that must first be met—but some, such as Oklahoma and Colorado, have already put similar plans in motion. By acting with particular haste in what he calls a crucial move to restore economic stability, Kemp has positioned Georgia at the center of a national fight over whether to stay the course with social distancing or try to return to some semblance of normalcy. But it’s easy to misunderstand which Americans stand on each side. Many Georgians have no delusions about the risks of reopening, even if they need to return to work for financial reasons. Among the dozen local leaders, business owners, and workers I spoke with for this article, all said they know some people who disagreed with the lockdown but were complying nonetheless. No one reported serious acrimony in their communities.

...

Estimates vary as to how many businesses might actually reopen now, but none of the Georgians I talked with knew many people who intended to voluntarily head right back to work. That was true in Athens, which has long been one of the Deep South’s most progressive cities, as well as in Blackshear, a small town in the rural southeastern part of the state that tends toward conservatism. Kelly Girtz, the mayor of Athens, estimated that about 90 percent of the local business owners he had spoken with in the past week had no intention of reopening immediately. “Georgia’s plan simply is not that well designed,” Girtz says. “To call it a ‘plan’ might be overstating the case.”

Several of Georgia’s Republican mayors did not return requests for comment, but some have publicly supported Kemp’s decision. In Watkinsville, which is near Athens, Mayor Bob Smith released a statement on Sunday encouraging the town’s residents to return to religious services and their jobs.

...

Extensive protective gear is required in most types of reopened businesses, which was a sticking point for every Georgian I spoke with who was contemplating a return to work. They said the state is providing neither the gear itself nor guidance on how to get it, so they’re in the same market as everyone else, competing with medical workers and high-risk people who need masks to safely go to the grocery store. Lee said he doesn’t “feel comfortable buying up that stuff right now when there’s hospitals that are needing it and they can’t get it.” Dupree said that to secure the gear she needed to reopen, she had to ask clients and friends to volunteer their extras.

[Zaxxon]

/sad

Would you prefer longer term sadness projections?

I would not.

[Zaxxon]

I'm going to go with no on Disney World. They are a private company and there is no way anyone can say the Mouse House is essential services. And since this is Disney they know the public relations catastrophe that will happen if they open and families die after visiting.

Interestingly though (because money drives all decision making now), it looks like they might be working behind the scenes to figure out what is possible. Some might say it's a whole new world - A new fantastic point of view (from behind a mask).

We're scheduled to go in October, and I just really can't see it happening. Even were they to be open, it'd be under some form of distancing restrictions. And that would kill both the magic and any desire I have to pay Disney rates...