Venezuela heats up....

[Max Peck]

Venezuela's rulers accused by UN of death squads and policy of fear

The UN has accused Venezuela of a strategy of instilling fear in its population to retain power, removing opponents with a "shocking" number of alleged extrajudicial killings.

Victims are arrested and shot, with crime scenes manipulated to suggest they resisted police, a report says.

The UN urges Venezuela to end the "grave violations of economic, social, civil, political and cultural rights".

Nicolás Maduro's administration has not yet officially responded to the report.

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

The government of President Nicolás Maduro attempted a de facto takeover of Venezuela's legislature on Sunday, swearing in its own candidate as head of the National Assembly in a move apparently orchestrated to rob international credibility from Juan Guaidó, who had led the body and has staked a rival claim as head of state.

The dramatic events marked a sharp escalation in Maduro’s gambit to end Guaidó’s quest to unseat him and sparked immediate condemnation by Washington, which has strongly backed the 36-year-old opposition leader. Opposition officials declared the move an effective “parliamentary coup” meant to consolidate Maduro’s near-dictatorial powers.
...
Later Sunday, Guaidó sought to counter the move by gathering opposition lawmakers at the headquarters of El Nacional, a local newspaper, to cast an official vote. In a 100-to-0 tally — enough to put him over the top in a full session of the 167-seat chamber — those present reelected Guaidó as head of the legislature. Twenty-eight of the 100 were votes from stand-ins of exiled lawmakers.

[Max Peck]

Venezuela loses a Coast Guard vessel in an engagement with a cruiser cruise ship.

A Venezuelan navy coastal patrol boat sank in the Caribbean after allegedly ramming a cruise ship that it had ordered to change direction.

The owners of the Portuguese-flagged RCGS Resolute said the naval vessel Naiguata also fired shots in an "act of aggression in international waters”.

The collision left the cruise ship, which has a reinforced hull for sailing in icy waters, with only minor damage.

Venezuela accused the Resolute of an act of "aggression and piracy".

It also said it "did not rule out" that the cruise ship "was transporting mercenaries to attack military bases in Venezuela".

I eagerly await a spirited sea shanty, regaling the exploits of the mighty RCGS (Royal Canadian Geographical Society) Resolute.

[Unagi]

little Caribbean boat tries to ram a ship equipped to break ice... hilarious.

[hepcat]

McJulio’s Navy

[Holman]

OMG how are we not talking about the junior-varsity Bay of Pigs invasion of Venezuela that collapsed as the American mercenaries were live-tweeting it?

In a state TV appearance, Maduro said that the two Americans arrested outside Caracas were “professional mercenaries” named Luke Denman and Airan Berry, who carried ID cards for a Florida-based security contractor called Silvercorp. Maduro equated their alleged efforts to overthrow his government to “playing Rambo” and “playing hero.” He did not mention, however, that the two were not very good at cosplaying the American tradition of violently overthrowing Latin American governments. Below are some of the less thought-through elements of the apparent coup attempt.

In what is surely just a coincidence, Silvercorp has previously been hired to run security at Trump events.

This episode of Pod Save the World has an excellent run-down of the idiocy involved. Start listening at 13:35.

[Holman]

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1 ... 64578?s=20

I'm not sure how reliable to consider Bellingcat (an "open-source intelligence" site), but what's pulled together here is some pretty damning and ridiculous public information.

[Max Peck]

I'm not sure that "planned" is the first word that comes to mind...

Venezuela raid: How an ex-Green Beret and a defecting general planned to capture Maduro

For the men in the Colombian safe house, the arrival of the muscular American felt like deliverance.

Defectors from Venezuela’s police and military, they had been rounded up from flophouses and streetside encampments for a secret mission to liberate their homeland from the socialist government of autocratic President Nicolás Maduro. They were holed up in a sweltering smuggler’s town near the Venezuelan frontier late last spring when Jordan Goudreau — a square-jawed former Green Beret who ran a strategic-services firm in Florida — stepped out of a car and approached.

“He had a translator,” said a man who later bowed out of the mission, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of persecution. “Jordan was talking about how he had connections with the U.S. high command.”

Five men who initially trained for the mission, or who came into contact with its operatives, said the 43-year-old veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had convinced the men that they were training for a U.S.-backed incursion into Venezuela. That belief, these people said, bolstered their sense of a serious operation that was worth risking their lives for.

I look forward to the inevitable Netflix/Amazon/HBO/Hallmark docudrama.

[Isgrimnur]

BBC

The US is offering a reward of $5m (£3.9m) for information leading to the arrest or conviction of the chief justice of Venezuela, Maikel Moreno.

The US accuses Mr Moreno of participating in transnational organised crime, which he denies.
...
The 54-year-old judge has been leading Venezuela's Supreme Court since February 2017.

The Supreme Court has played a key role in overruling or annulling laws passed by the National Assembly, the only institution which is not controlled by the Maduro government.
...
The US State Department alleges that Mr Moreno has received bribes in exchange for telling judges to release defendants or dismissing cases altogether.

Earlier this year, he was charged with money laundering by a court in Florida.
...
Previous offers of rewards for top Venezuelan officials have so far had little effect. In March, the US accused President Maduro of "narco-terrorism" and said it would pay $15m for information leading to his arrest.

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

Two former members of U.S. Special Forces were sentenced to 20 years in prison by a Venezuelan court for taking part in a murky raid in May to oust President Nicolás Maduro, the country’s attorney general announced on Twitter.

In the only official statement on the previously unannounced trial, Tarek William Saab tweeted late Friday that Airan Berry, 42, and Luke Denman, 34, admitted “to having committed the crimes of conspiracy, association, illicit trafficking of weapons of war and terrorism” in connection with the botched mission known as Operation Gideon.

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request to comment. Lawyers for the men said they were barred from the jailhouse proceedings, the Associated Press reported.

[Max Peck]

Annexing a neighbor is always a sure-fire way to fix your domestic problems.

Essequibo: Venezuela votes on claim to Guyana-controlled oil region

Venezuelans are voting in a referendum on Sunday which has ratcheted up the tension between the South American country and its neighbour, Guyana.

The Venezuelan government has called the referendum to measure popular support for its historical claim to a contested oil-rich swathe of jungle currently administered by Guyana.

The 159,500-sq-km (61,600-square-mile) region is known as Essequibo and makes up two thirds of the total of the land currently controlled by Guyana. It is home to 125,000 of Guyana's 800,000 citizens.

[LordMortis]

I had seen it was in large part about XOMs interests in Guyana, even as most Guyana's drilling is offshore. Why Venezuala would want to remove XOMs interests on shore. :Idunnoshrug:

[Freyland]

I had seen it was in large part about XOMs interests in Guyana, even as most Guyana's drilling is offshore. Why Venezuala would want to remove XOMs interests on shore. :Idunnoshrug:

I read "XCOM" initially. That made for some confusing imagery.

[LordMortis]

Exxon Mobile. Sorry.

[Carpet_pissr]

I had seen it was in large part about XOMs interests in Guyana, even as most Guyana's drilling is offshore. Why Venezuala would want to remove XOMs interests on shore. :Idunnoshrug:

I assume they would nationalize it like they did in the 70’s (80’s?).

[Max Peck]

Essequibo: Venezuela moves to claim Guyana-controlled region

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is plunging ahead with its plans to take over Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighbouring Guyana.

He has ordered the state oil company to issue extraction licences there and proposed the National Assembly pass a bill making the area part of Venezuela.

Guyana has put its defence forces on full alert in response.

Venezuelan voters on Sunday approved a referendum claiming rights over Essequibo, ratcheting up tensions.

In a Facebook address slamming Mr Maduro's "missteps", Guyana's President Irfaan Ali said he had already spoken to the UN secretary general and is asking the UN Security Council to consider intervening.

"This is a direct threat to Guyana's territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence," he said. "Guyana views this as an imminent threat... and will intensify precautionary measures to safeguard its territory."

He also sought to reassure the country's investors - mainly oil companies - that their money is safe.

Meanwhile, Brazil said on Wednesday that its military was reinforcing its presence on the border with Guyana and Venezuela by moving more troops and armoured vehicles there.

On Sunday, more than 95% of voters in Venezuela's referendum approved establishing a new Venezuelan state in the region. While only two million people voted - making up roughly 10% of eligible voters - Venezuela's claim to Essequibo enjoys broad support in the country.

The UN Security council is not going to do anything. At a minimum Russia will back any play that Venezuela makes.

[El Guapo]

Is there any chance that Brazil intervenes on Guyana's side?

[Max Peck]

I don't know enough about South American geopolitics to guess what Brazil might do in response to a Venezuelan incursion into Guyana. On the one hand, Lula has been fairly chummy with Maduro. On the other hand, Brazil has stated that they do not support Venezuela taking the disputed territory by force. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Brazil urging Venezuela to avoid force or threats against Guyana, says Lula aide

Brazil rejects any use of force by Venezuela to occupy the Esequibo territory in Guyana and will urge the Caracas government not to threaten its neighbor, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's top foreign policy advisor said on Wednesday.

Celso Amorim, who traveled to Venezuela as Lula's special envoy last month, told Reuters that Brazil opposes "the use of force or threat thereof."

"I conveyed our very serious preoccupations," he said of his visit to Caracas ahead of a public referendum on the Esequibo.

"Now there are new facts that are still more worrisome. We'll not fail to transmit our concerns especially in relation to the policy of no use of force," Amorim said.

[LordMortis]

Last night CNBC was reporting that Brazil is building up "Calvary" (Armored transports) along the border.

[El Guapo]

I'm assuming (though who knows for sure) that Guyana's military doesn't have much of a chance at holding out against Venezuela. If so, the question as always with this sort of thing is whether anyone's willing to do anything to stop Venezuela. Part of the challenge is that Venezuela is already (I think) under significant sanctions and isolation so I'm not sure whether any plausible additions are likely to achieve anything.

And Brazil seems like the only plausible candidate who could be willing and able to stop a Venezuelan invasion militarily.

[LordMortis]

I'm assuming (though who knows for sure) that Guyana's military doesn't have much of a chance at holding out against Venezuela. If so, the question as always with this sort of thing is whether anyone's willing to do anything to stop Venezuela. Part of the challenge is that Venezuela is already (I think) under significant sanctions and isolation so I'm not sure whether any plausible additions are likely to achieve anything.

And Brazil seems like the only plausible candidate who could be willing and able to stop a Venezuelan invasion militarily.

Again CNBC had a pundit suggesting the UN does nothing but that there is some sort America (as in the Americas) agreement that would kick in and do something. I forget the name. We'll see... or hopefully we won't.

[Unagi]

Probably UNASUR (Union of South American Nations)

[Zarathud]

This is why Putin‘s invasion of Ukraine matters. Our inability to fully commit to its defense was a signal the US would no longer stop nations from invading another country.