Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat May 23, 2020 11:09 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 10:30 am Well it's one thing to avoid the tax man and state licensing. It's another to be the Typhoid Mary of Fleet Street.

Yeah, exactly. As I mentioned elsewhere, my mid-70s aunt told me about the underground hairdresser network currently operating in rural north-west NJ. I have no doubts it's happening everywhere and it'll continue. However, this is exactly the type of thing contract tracers will figure out if there's an outbreak associated with the activity, assuming they're ever activated. For reference, I volunteered to be a contact tracer (hell, I could *teach* contact tracers) about two weeks ago. Haven't heard a single thing.

I also saw this article (updated this morning) regarding the time element of exposure and it's one that likely needs to be hammered as we start opening up more and more facilities.

Wear a mask. Wash your hands with soap. Stay at least 6 feet from others. If you do gather with others, go outside rather than inside.
Still, there's one more aspect to infection that has received less attention. Growing evidence suggests that Covid-19 infection, like with other illnesses, is related to prolonged time exposed to the virus. The longer you stay in an environment that may contain the virus, the higher the risk of getting sick.

Erin Bromage, a comparative immunologist and professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, summed it up with a short and sweet equation: "Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time."

I immediately thought of radiation protection, and oddly enough the same advice we give for that works here - focus on Time, Distance, Shielding.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat May 23, 2020 12:40 pm

And there it is. We're coming up on 100K deaths and this is what's happening on Saturday morning:

https://twitter.com/funder/status/1264208302856196108

BREAKING: Trump just arrived at his Virginia golf course. Trump is the biggest failure and fraud ever.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat May 23, 2020 1:21 pm

100,000. As dumb as we act Im wondering if we will see 1,000,000 dead in the future.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sat May 23, 2020 1:26 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 10:30 am Well it's one thing to avoid the tax man and state licensing. It's another to be the Typhoid Mary of Fleet Street.

I honestly just don't know how you combat this sort of weaponized stupid.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status ... 3293336579

The Texas GOP just had a rally in Bexar County.

The GOP county chair ends the rally by saying coronavirus is a hoax perpetuated by Democrats and tells everyone to take off their masks.

Then they shake hands and hug.

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Sat May 23, 2020 1:37 pm

These people are too stupid to be breathing (no pun intended). Just let them all die. Thin the herd. Raise the average IQ of humanity. Whatever. I just can't anymore.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sat May 23, 2020 1:48 pm

gilraen wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 1:37 pm These people are too stupid to be breathing (no pun intended). Just let them all die. Thin the herd. Raise the average IQ of humanity. Whatever. I just can't anymore.

Unfortunately the virus doesn't do justice or karma.

They'll live, others will die.

I saw something on another forum. It's loaded with crazies. Someone said they didn't know anyone sick or dead. Someone else said "then maybe the right sort of people are dying." Pretty sure it was a verbatim lifted straight from some other source. Decided that place wasn't worth the intel.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat May 23, 2020 2:03 pm

That Texas GOP county chair is kinda blowing my mind right now, yeah. And then there's this from yesterday:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status ... 0322401282

This is unbelievable.

Schools have cancelled graduations because of the pandemic, so Melania Trump invites seniors to the White House, already a COVID hotspot.

There were almost no masks, and even less distancing.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat May 23, 2020 2:30 pm

Is it safe to go to the beach?

One big warning: Your personal risk depends on your age and health, the prevalence of the virus in your area, and the precautions you take during any of these activities. Also, many areas continue to restrict the activities described here, so check your local laws.

And there's no such thing as a zero-risk outing right now. As states begin allowing businesses and public areas to reopen, decisions about what's safe will be up to individuals. It can help to think through the risks the way the experts do.

"We can think of transmission risk with a simple phrase: time, space, people, place," explains Dr. William Miller, an epidemiologist at Ohio State University.

Here's his rule of thumb: The more time you spend and the closer in space you are to any infected people, the higher your risk. Interacting with more people raises your risk, and indoor places are riskier than outdoors.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sat May 23, 2020 2:31 pm

The frustrating part is that the idiot brigade won. Everything is back open. They're simply being asked to take some very basic precautions to help prevent further spread when they go out...and they can't even do that much because "FREEDOM!!".

I can't even wrap my head around caring so little for my fellow man that not only will I not personally take any precautions, but I will loudly (and sometimes violently) push back against anyone who does.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 1:48 pm Someone said they didn't know anyone sick or dead.

I've been biting my tongue damn near clean off whenever I hear my derpier friends start in with the "I don't know anyone who has been sick" bit. Hell, I even saw one of the cousins on my side - one who knew Mrs. Skinypupy's uncle that passed - talking on FB about how "he didn't personally know anyone at all who had been sick or died". When I mentioned the uncle, his only response was "oh yeah, forgot about him".

Again, these people are colossal assholes. Unless it is personally affecting someone in their immediate family, they simply don't care one bit.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat May 23, 2020 2:32 pm

Looks like being fat is the new COVID death stat. No wonder its killing so many Americans. Of course obese already have health issues from that like diabetes and high blood pressure and bad hearts.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Sat May 23, 2020 4:30 pm

I'm in total "Lookin' after me and mine" mode now. Let all those fucktards do what they want. I'm staying safe and making sure my family's safe. Everyone else is free to go to war with science and reality. Let me know how it turns out.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat May 23, 2020 4:46 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 2:31 pmI've been biting my tongue damn near clean off whenever I hear my derpier friends start in with the "I don't know anyone who has been sick" bit. Hell, I even saw one of the cousins on my side - one who knew Mrs. Skinypupy's uncle that passed - talking on FB about how "he didn't personally know anyone at all who had been sick or died". When I mentioned the uncle, his only response was "oh yeah, forgot about him".

Again, these people are colossal assholes. Unless it is personally affecting someone in their immediate family, they simply don't care one bit.

I also wish the media would talk about some of the worst cases. I've mentioned it before but I have a friend - early 30s. He has been in the hospital since March 21st. *MARCH FUCKING 21st*. He has flat lined multiple times. Two weeks ago he finally tested negative for Covid-19 multiple days in a row and they were talking about taking him off the vent. Then they did and his O2 collapsed again. They have come to the conclusion that his lungs have been destroyed by the virus and he can live on a vent or die. That's it. He had sepsis last week. They had a prayer circle for him because they thought he was hours from death. The doctors basically bullied his wife into a DNR (about 75% of my friends are of this opinion) and his family doesn't want it. It's a horror show. This is a fucking horrible disease.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat May 23, 2020 4:56 pm

Not sure if this has been posted before, but I thought it was interesting: COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

Gives estimates for current and total estimates as well as Rt.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:05 pm

https://twitter.com/Sorry_What_Now/stat ... 36800?s=19

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:06 pm

Even Mr. Fed getting in on that thread.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:06 pm

malchior wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 4:46 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 2:31 pmI've been biting my tongue damn near clean off whenever I hear my derpier friends start in with the "I don't know anyone who has been sick" bit. Hell, I even saw one of the cousins on my side - one who knew Mrs. Skinypupy's uncle that passed - talking on FB about how "he didn't personally know anyone at all who had been sick or died". When I mentioned the uncle, his only response was "oh yeah, forgot about him".

Again, these people are colossal assholes. Unless it is personally affecting someone in their immediate family, they simply don't care one bit.
I also wish the media would talk about some of the worst cases. I've mentioned it before but I have a friend - early 30s. He has been in the hospital since March 21st. *MARCH FUCKING 21st*. He has flat lined multiple times. Two weeks ago he finally tested negative for Covid-19 multiple days in a row and they were talking about taking him off the vent. Then they did and his O2 collapsed again. They have come to the conclusion that his lungs have been destroyed by the virus and he can live on a vent or die. That's it. He had sepsis last week. They had a prayer circle for him because they thought he was hours from death. The doctors basically bullied his wife into a DNR (about 75% of my friends are of this opinion) and his family doesn't want it. It's a horror show. This is a fucking horrible disease.

That's awful, I'm so sorry for your friend.

However, it won't matter if that example and a thousand others just like it get shouted from the rooftops 24-7. The MAGAs simply do not care because it's not happening to them personally. The best you'd get is a "sorry he was one of the unlucky ones", but more likely a "guess he shouldn't have left the house then".

The lack of empathy is utterly horrific.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:12 pm

This goes beyond the MAGAts though. We are seeing a widespread, fuck it attitude starting up. Sure lots of people are going to be very careful but the number of people who are just 'fuck it' pool party in just my circle was astonishing once they heard we can have groups of up to 25 outdoors (as proclaimed by our governor here in NJ). 'Seems like they figured that was safe'. No. They saw the mob growing wild and decided to go with it because politics. Let's be real here.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:33 pm

A church up in the "hill people" section of NJ where I live announced (then deleted) a message on social media that they'd be opening on Monday for in-person services. There's a few more churches in South Jersey that are openly saying similar things.

As is usually the case, humans don't learn or change until the penalty is severe. Amazing as it is to say, the impacts for COVID-19 apparently weren't high enough. I guess we're going to see if this next round will move the needle.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:39 pm

My thought when I see a church is opening up and 100s expected is "God gave them a brain yet they refuse to use it". Let them suffer.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat May 23, 2020 5:57 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 5:33 pmAs is usually the case, humans don't learn or change until the penalty is severe. Amazing as it is to say, the impacts for COVID-19 apparently weren't high enough. I guess we're going to see if this next round will move the needle.

I don't think it will. Our cultural values are all 'what I see, believe, and most importantly all about "me" are best'. We have seen it strongly over the years. However, I think Sandy Hook really sank it that we had no bottom when it came to death. We have a new tragedy sacrament. Thoughts and prayers. Let's wash our hands by giving their GoFundMe some dollars. Money makes everything better, right?

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat May 23, 2020 6:08 pm

Saw interviews from people at a beach someplace. Stuff like "Wanted to get out" "Wanted to be out. Maybe go to a bar maybe have some fun"

Fools dont seems to consider "Wanted to get out, have some fun, hit the beach, get COVID, die, kill my friends and family"

I don't think it will. Our cultural values are all 'what I see, believe, and most importantly all about "me" are best'. We have seen it strongly over the years. However, I think Sandy Hook really sank it that we had no bottom when it came to death. We have a new tragedy sacrament.

Hate saying it but maybe its our culture of violence in entertainment and the banning of natural nudity and such in its place. Head blown off and body hit at 100 mph shown in full detail? Thats fine. ....OMG BOOBS!!! Cover their eyes change the channel and protest the station!!

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat May 23, 2020 7:59 pm

Defiant wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 4:56 pm Not sure if this has been posted before, but I thought it was interesting: COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

Gives estimates for current and total estimates as well as Rt.

By that reckoning, we can expect 187,000 dead by August. Easily a quarter of a million by November, unless we find an effective treatment in the interim. If Americans don't vote this assclown out of office in a landslide, this country is finished.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat May 23, 2020 8:18 pm

Kraken wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 7:59 pm
Defiant wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 4:56 pm Not sure if this has been posted before, but I thought it was interesting: COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

Gives estimates for current and total estimates as well as Rt.
By that reckoning, we can expect 187,000 dead by August. Easily a quarter of a million by November, unless we find an effective treatment in the interim. If Americans don't vote this assclown out of office in a landslide, this country is finished.

Eh. This is a real poor use of machine learning. There is no predictive power in the data if the underlying conditions (in this case everything all the time) are changing. If everything stayed the same it'd be useful. Throw heaping handfuls of salt on it.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat May 23, 2020 8:23 pm

Americans voted that assclown into office.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat May 23, 2020 8:59 pm

Defiant wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 4:56 pm Not sure if this has been posted before, but I thought it was interesting: COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

Gives estimates for current and total estimates as well as Rt.

Well, on that page (says last updated today) - they predict we will hit 100,000 deaths on May 27th, when in reality it looks like we will hit it tomorrow.

/macro_image "InherentBase_Torment" "School" "enterbasefrompasscode PICA-9403"

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sat May 23, 2020 9:08 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 12:40 pm And there it is. We're coming up on 100K deaths and this is what's happening on Saturday morning:

https://twitter.com/funder/status/1264208302856196108

BREAKING: Trump just arrived at his Virginia golf course. Trump is the biggest failure and fraud ever.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KFILE/status ... 2976150529

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 7799067648

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
Oct 13, 2014
Can you believe that,with all of the problems and difficulties facing the U.S., President Obama spent the day playing golf.Worse than Carter.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat May 23, 2020 9:44 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 10:30 am Well it's one thing to avoid the tax man and state licensing. It's another to be the Typhoid Mary of Fleet Street.

Almost 12 hours later, and now with an actual example:

A hair stylist in Springfield, Missouri, exposed as many as 91 people to coronavirus after working at a salon for eight days while symptomatic, health officials said Friday.

The exposed include 84 Great Clips customers and, potentially, seven coworkers, said Clay Goddard, director of the Springfield-Greene County Health Department. The condition of the stylist, who was not identified, was not revealed.

...

"The good news is both the clients and the hairstylists were masked" at the time of exposure, he said.

Goddard said at a news conference Friday that more cases like this would quickly strain Springfield's ability to care for patients.

"The hair stylist worked while sick," he said. "I’m gong to be honest with you: We can’t have many more of these."

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun May 24, 2020 9:24 am

Another "experts weigh in on the risk of different activities" article

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... er-activit

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun May 24, 2020 11:55 am

Swim party exposure in Arkansas:

Several people who attended a high school swim party in Arkansas have contracted Covid-19, Gov. Asa Hutchinson told reporters on Saturday.
"A high school swim party that I'm sure everybody thought was harmless. They're young, they're swimming, they're just having activity and positive cases resulted from that," Hutchinson said.

The governor declined to provide further details on the swim party but noted the incident was "just an encouragement for us to be disciplined in our activities."

I do hope they share details soon - more specifically the number of people involved and the details related to how they were exposed.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun May 24, 2020 12:09 pm

I guess everyone thought that having fun would keep the covid at bay.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Sun May 24, 2020 12:12 pm

Smoove_B wrote:Swim party exposure in Arkansas:

Several people who attended a high school swim party in Arkansas have contracted Covid-19, Gov. Asa Hutchinson told reporters on Saturday.
"A high school swim party that I'm sure everybody thought was harmless. They're young, they're swimming, they're just having activity and positive cases resulted from that," Hutchinson said.

The governor declined to provide further details on the swim party but noted the incident was "just an encouragement for us to be disciplined in our activities."
I do hope they share details soon - more specifically the number of people involved and the details related to how they were exposed.

I guess they should have ingested more chlorinated pool water.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun May 24, 2020 12:17 pm

You mean injected.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sun May 24, 2020 12:29 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 11:55 am Swim party exposure in Arkansas:

Several people who attended a high school swim party in Arkansas have contracted Covid-19, Gov. Asa Hutchinson told reporters on Saturday.
"A high school swim party that I'm sure everybody thought was harmless. They're young, they're swimming, they're just having activity and positive cases resulted from that," Hutchinson said.

The governor declined to provide further details on the swim party but noted the incident was "just an encouragement for us to be disciplined in our activities."
I do hope they share details soon - more specifically the number of people involved and the details related to how they were exposed.

Same shit, different state:

https://twitter.com/scottpasmoretv/stat ... 5861232640

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun May 24, 2020 12:31 pm

Yeah, I'd seen that too this morning; I fear there's going to be a reckoning.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun May 24, 2020 1:24 pm

Anecdote of the day but everyone in my social circle...and I mean everyone is obsessed with socially distant pool parties now. They are all clamoring for it. And I'm saying, "Outside is..maybe...fine but how do you want me to deal with the bathroom, guys." And I'm lucky. There is a bathroom specifically right off the kitchen by the porch for the pool. But it'll be coronavirus central in about 5 seconds if 25 people show up. One of these people is bound to get it if they are ok with the whole ikea of this arrangement to begin with. It isn't safe.

I'm honestly torn on opening the pool. I should because not opening a pool is problematic maintenance wise but I also don't want my wife peer-pressured into things. It's insane how much this spun up in only a few days. These two pool party articles were just dropped by me into our discord because I don't want to hear it. And then we have the other 'big pool house' and they are like, "We'll make it work. It'll be fine." They have one bathroom for the whole house. It is upstairs through the kitchen and up a set of stairs by the bedrooms. Great idea people. I can't wait for the suck show this summer is going to be. When did we get so stupid and soft?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun May 24, 2020 1:36 pm

We’ve always been this stupid and soft.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun May 24, 2020 1:59 pm

Makes me glad that I dont know anyone, have any friends, no one comes over, and I dont go anywhere. I can totally avoid stupid except for the quick trips to town for food and banking.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:21 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 12:29 pm

Same shit, different state:

https://twitter.com/scottpasmoretv/stat ... 5861232640

Ruling Days

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sun May 24, 2020 3:03 pm

malchior wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 1:24 pm Anecdote of the day but everyone in my social circle...and I mean everyone is obsessed with socially distant pool parties now. They are all clamoring for it. And I'm saying, "Outside is..maybe...fine but how do you want me to deal with the bathroom, guys." And I'm lucky. There is a bathroom specifically right off the kitchen by the porch for the pool. But it'll be coronavirus central in about 5 seconds if 25 people show up. One of these people is bound to get it if they are ok with the whole ikea of this arrangement to begin with. It isn't safe.

I'm honestly torn on opening the pool. I should because not opening a pool is problematic maintenance wise but I also don't want my wife peer-pressured into things. It's insane how much this spun up in only a few days. These two pool party articles were just dropped by me into our discord because I don't want to hear it. And then we have the other 'big pool house' and they are like, "We'll make it work. It'll be fine." They have one bathroom for the whole house. It is upstairs through the kitchen and up a set of stairs by the bedrooms. Great idea people. I can't wait for the suck show this summer is going to be. When did we get so stupid and soft?

Pool parties are trending? Well then let's all do a pool party. That's all it is. Sheep gonna sheep.

Madmarcus · Post by **Madmarcus** » Sun May 24, 2020 6:55 pm

The big news in my extended family is a story on how Florida has done everything right (originally in the NYT I think). It makes a good case that they handled the nursing home situation terrifically but I think it is a little early to say that opening up has been a complete success.