Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Isgrimnur]

“Physical penetration of my sinus cavities.”

[Formix]

I'm interested to hear what Smoove thinks about Georgia not blowing up in numbers, but NC is. It's counterintuitive, but I'm wondering if it's a reporting SNAFU like Florida's "pneumonia" or just a sign that we're still in the early days and don't really have a handle on this thing.

[LordMortis]

How risky is it to see friends and family right now?

At the very least, you should continue to follow your state and local guidance, like limits on the number of people who can gather in one spot. Beyond that, the decision about how you move forward in our new normal is really going to be a personal one, Amesh Adalja, M.D., a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, tells SELF. “The virus hasn’t changed biologically. Social distancing has eased because hospital capacity is no longer an issue in most parts of the country,” he explains. “It doesn’t mean that you’re not at risk for contracting it.”

Overall lots of good information/opinions on realistic scenarios and how to think through things.

I'm itching to meet with someone without a mask and play a boardgame. Our state guideline is that won't happen until there is a vaccine, even if I have coworkers forgetting to put their masks on when around other coworkers (wherein I refuse to get near) and wherein the last time I was out in public everyone at Costco had their mask on but many didn't follow the arrows or social distancing and maybe 10% of the mask wearers were wearing their masks below their noses. I can only assume that is some sort of mutual rejection of mask wearing protest while still not deciding to boycott and finding that the store is too fatigued or too worried to tell them to do it right.

[noxiousdog]

How risky is it to see friends and family right now?

At the very least, you should continue to follow your state and local guidance, like limits on the number of people who can gather in one spot. Beyond that, the decision about how you move forward in our new normal is really going to be a personal one, Amesh Adalja, M.D., a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, tells SELF. “The virus hasn’t changed biologically. Social distancing has eased because hospital capacity is no longer an issue in most parts of the country,” he explains. “It doesn’t mean that you’re not at risk for contracting it.”

Overall lots of good information/opinions on realistic scenarios and how to think through things.

I'm itching to meet with someone without a mask and play a boardgame. Our state guideline is that won't happen until there is a vaccine, even if I have coworkers forgetting to put their masks on when around other coworkers (wherein I refuse to get near) and wherein the last time I was out in public everyone at Costco had their mask on but many didn't follow the arrows or social distancing and maybe 10% of the mask wearers were wearing their masks below their noses. I can only assume that is some sort of mutual rejection of mask wearing protest while still not deciding to boycott and finding that the store is too fatigued or too worried to tell them to do it right.

Would it be possible to play outside?

[LordMortis]

Would it be possible to play outside?

My experience with gaming outside is that wind is not gamer friendly.

[YellowKing]

I admit that even as strict as I was with quarantine, the re-opening has caused me to become much more lax in my interactions with others. That's not to say that I've been seeking out crowds or even having any kind of lengthy social interactions, but I've had friends over to help me move. I played disc golf with a couple of friends the other day. Granted these are largely outdoor activities and the risk is probably pretty low, but it's not zero.

In March I would have never dreamed of doing it, but it's hard to watch thousands of people packed together on the streets protesting, and come to the conclusion that I can't go play disc golf with two friends. Or believe that I'm allowed to send my kids to daycare with a dozen of other strangers' kids, but I can't have one person over to help me move.

It's not really cabin fever or anything for me, as I'm a loner type anyway that went through two months of shelter in place happy as a clam. It's more the disparity between what I see around me and what I'm self-imposing. And while intellectually I know staying sheltered in place is the RIGHT thing to do and the safest thing to do, it's a tough pill to swallow to be stuck in your house putting your life on hold while everyone else is out there running free.

[El Guapo]

FWIW I've been operating under the view that outdoor interactions with limited number of people at a sufficient distance and with masks is sufficiently safe.

[Paingod]

In March I would have never dreamed of doing it, but it's hard to watch thousands of people packed together on the streets protesting, and come to the conclusion that I can't go play disc golf with two friends. Or believe that I'm allowed to send my kids to daycare with a dozen of other strangers' kids, but I can't have one person over to help me move.

I'm more worried about the explosion of cases in those areas with the biggest protests. We'll see how well crowds and masks work together in a few weeks...

[LordMortis]

FWIW I've been operating under the view that outdoor interactions with limited number of people at a sufficient distance and with masks is sufficiently safe.

In Michigan outdoor activity with spacing in groups of 10 or under does not ask us to wear masks anymore. I'm willing to defer to their recommendations with just a bit more caution, as I am high risk. I won't be truly comfortable until I see guidance prohibitions from hospitals become more lax.

[Smoove_B]

I'm interested to hear what Smoove thinks about Georgia not blowing up in numbers, but NC is. It's counterintuitive, but I'm wondering if it's a reporting SNAFU like Florida's "pneumonia" or just a sign that we're still in the early days and don't really have a handle on this thing.

I'm trying to stay current on what's happening nationwide now, but other than AZ and parts of TX, I'll admit I haven't been following too closely in other areas. Part of the issue is the reporting and testing (exactly like what happened in Florida), yes. But I also suspect a year or two from now we're going to see that this was really a series of localized outbreaks and for whatever reason, certain cities/regions just weren't impacted in Q1 2020. Had there been widespread testing maybe the wouldn't have needed to aggressively lock down as early? Everyone was operating with the idea that the virus was everywhere, but maybe it wasn't - or at least, maybe it wasn't at levels high enough to be a concern for rapid community spread. However, now that everyone is opening back up, whatever "pockets" of virus are out there are now going to start circulating again and communities/states that previously didn't have problems might now start seeing increased cases.

I know I'm a broken record on this, but we're still in reaction testing mode - there's no proactive surveillance (that I'm aware of) that is monitoring a region or state. Everything we're doing is still reacting to the events of March.

[Smoove_B]

Would it be possible to play outside?

My experience with gaming outside is that wind is not gamer friendly.

I've had a friend that's been asking me as well - offering the same idea. In theory it sounds great. Then remember everyone needs to bring their own food, drink and eating utensils. Are you touching the same game pieces? Cards, token, etc... What happens when someone has to use the bathroom? I know I sound like a paranoid lunatic, but any one of those scenario elements are potentially are exposures.

[LordMortis]

Would it be possible to play outside?

My experience with gaming outside is that wind is not gamer friendly.

I've had a friend that's been asking me as well - offering the same idea. In theory it sounds great. Then remember everyone needs to bring their own food, drink and eating utensils. Are you touching the same game pieces? Cards, token, etc... What happens when someone has to use the bathroom? I know I sound like a paranoid lunatic, but any one of those scenario elements are potentially are exposures.

My assumption is assumed risk. My fear is that work is now exposing me way more on a weekly basis and that I would be spreading that exposure. I can't speak to exposure the someone else would bring to the table. I'd have been much safer of a subject gaming with a friend three weeks ago when there might have been five people in the office at any given time, and those people occupied the building almost in quadrants, and no one would "forget" to put on a mask when leaving their separate spheres. The office is still sparse (maybe 10 people, which is enough that two or four people may get stuck in a shared workspace but still distant for too long at a time) but it's amazing how quickly we "meh" best practices to protect each other. And so, while I could be in the office five days a week as an essential worker, nope.

[Blackhawk]

I'm maintaining the same precautions now that I have been all along, and will likely continue to do so for some time. The only thing that I'm struggling with is not taking the kids (16 and 18) shopping with me. Shopping is once a week for a family of four. Normally we all do it together. Now on shopping day Michelle is doing her mother's weekly shopping so that her mom (elderly, other risk factors) doesn't have to go out. Trying to keep four peoples' shopping lists straight while keeping a running total on what comes down to 56 meals and 28 breakfasts, plus sides, snacks, drinks, and household stuff is a killer. I'd love to have the kids there helping.

What's really frustrating is that with all the contradictory information, it's practically impossible to figure out what the real, non-politically-motivated guidance is. In a room of ten experts, three say take the kids, but wear masks. Three say leave them home and wear masks. Two say take them and don't worry about the masks. One says it doesn't matter; we're all doomed anyway, and one says to never leave my house again, order my groceries online, and dip the kids in bleach every day for 60 seconds.

[malchior]

I'm talking with folks in Texas - just got off the phone with one. He had no idea this was going down. That said my client is telling people in Houston they won't be back in the office this year potentially.

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/stat ... 3282497536

[Smoove_B]

Any organization that has the ability to allow workers to stay remote that is somehow encouraging them to come in like everything is ok is acting questionably, IMHO. Speaking of which:

Virginia schools reopening:

But in phase 2, which "most schools can enter right now," according to Northam, schools may offer instruction for preschoolers through third graders, English language learners and students with disabilities. Summer camps in school buildings will also be allowed. However, strict social distancing measures need to be enforced, such as only one child assigned to each seat on a school bus and limiting large gatherings to 50 people.

When playing sports outside, 10 feet of physical distance should be maintained by the students and spectators at all times and shared items, such as balls, must be disinfected between uses.

In phase 3, all students will be allowed to receive in-person instruction, but with strict social distancing measures in place, "which may require alternative schedules that blend in-person and remote learning for students," according to a news release.

"We expect schools to have six feet between desks and work spaces," Northam said during the news conference. "There will be daily health screenings and wearing of face coverings by staff where physical distancing cannot be maintained."

Northam noted, however, that his plan is just guidance and not a mandate. Both public and private schools will have the flexibility to create their own plans based on these guidelines, which must then be submitted for approval by the Virginia Department of Education.

[YellowKing]

NC has been getting record numbers too, and the governor just keeps telling us "We're very concerned that all the numbers are going in the wrong direction" but also "We're not going to change any of our re-opening protocols or guidance - full speed ahead and see you at school in the fall!"

March 2020: Numbers rising - "EVERYONE SHELTER IN PLACE! BUSINESSES CLOSED!"

June 2020: Numbers worse than they were in March - "Ehh....I guess we'll just keep an eye on it."

[El Guapo]

I have a neighbor that I've been playing a regular game of Axis & Allies with over the past year or so, though that's been suspended during the pandemic. The other day he floated the idea of resuming the game, with masks and whatnot. We live in a triple decker on different floors, so we wouldn't have to share bathrooms.

In theory I think it could be reasonably safe, especially if we keep the windows open, both wear masks, avoid touching faces, wash hands immediately afterwards, etc. BUT the problem is in my mind that we have kids, and if I do that, it makes it infinitely harder to tell the kids that they can't be indoors with other people. Soo, guessing not, at least for now.

[LordMortis]

NC has been getting record numbers too, and the governor just keeps telling us "We're very concerned that all the numbers are going in the wrong direction" but also "We're not going to change any of our re-opening protocols or guidance - full speed ahead and see you at school in the fall!"

March 2020: Numbers rising - "EVERYONE SHELTER IN PLACE! BUSINESSES CLOSED!"

June 2020: Numbers worse than they were in March - "Ehh....I guess we'll just keep an eye on it."

People insane about governor but we have specific guidance that makes sense but can be modified as we learn more. State wide, we are in phase 5 and if things get worse, we move back to phase 4... or 3...

Sadly, the next (and final) phase as it stands is "when there is a vaccine"

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/whit ... 9875_7.pdf

Her plan makes sense to me and she seems to be following metrics. So I have nothing but contempt for the negligent or protestors.

We since March we have moved from the 2nd/3rd/4th worst hit area with 70 deaths on a good day, to a statistical middle of the pack. While testing is up new cases have come down from over 750 daily to less than 300 and death toll is less than 40 on a bad day even as Memorial Day unleashed the hounds. All things considered I think the state is handling things as well as I could hope for and I think much of that is rooted in unemployment insurance payment at an inflated wage (which actually comes from the federal level. We'll see how the game changes at the end of July)

[Unagi]

Looking at the data (Worldometer), I feel like California is on fire.

They had ‘done so well’, but their climb is off the charts.

Florida data doesn’t look as good as they pretend either.

[malchior]

NC has been getting record numbers too, and the governor just keeps telling us "We're very concerned that all the numbers are going in the wrong direction" but also "We're not going to change any of our re-opening protocols or guidance - full speed ahead and see you at school in the fall!"

March 2020: Numbers rising - "EVERYONE SHELTER IN PLACE! BUSINESSES CLOSED!"

June 2020: Numbers worse than they were in March - "Ehh....I guess we'll just keep an eye on it."

I think it comes down to the fact that the Federal government helped everybody but the States themselves. With evil fucks like Trump and #MoscowMitch at the wheel they have no choice without laying off huge segments of the state workers and increasing the fiscal drain. These governors have been forced by these evil fucks into this Sophie's choice.

[Dramatist]

I'm still working in a super crowded Home Depot 5 days a week. It was super hot and humid yesterday and was hell wearing a mask. Still in the Houston suburb store in which I work more people than not have some sort of face covering.

Still no one at work (about 130 all together) has gotten Covid yet. I feel like we are a big guinea pig for Covid transmission. We have been extremely busy; like after a hurricane busy. But I'm not in close proximity to any particular person for more than about 5 minutes in most cases. Customers are always showing me pictures on their cell phones, so we aren't maintaining a six foot distance some of the time.

At first I was pretty sure we would have an outbreak but we haven't. Home Depot has been good to us. We are getting hazard pay each week, free paid time off (extra for seniors and high risk individuals) and will get more paid time off if we or a family member gets Covid and we have to isolate.

Maybe we have just been very lucky, but this is the story I'm hearing from the other Home Depots that are near us. I feel better about not catching it at work now.

[RunningMn9]

I've had a friend that's been asking me as well - offering the same idea. In theory it sounds great. Then remember everyone needs to bring their own food, drink and eating utensils. Are you touching the same game pieces? Cards, token, etc... What happens when someone has to use the bathroom? I know I sound like a paranoid lunatic, but any one of those scenario elements are potentially are exposures.

That friend should know better than to expect to see you in 2022 at the earliest.

To this point, the scenario you describe has no risk unless one of the individuals present is under active infection without displaying symptoms yet. Now, since you don’t know if that’s the case, the risk is obviously not zero.

But that friend should know that you run a simplified algorithm:

If (risk != 0)
{
Say(“No”);
}

[Smoove_B]

Well I'm sure as hell not going near you. Too many people in your circle that had exposures and/or had the virus. I'm not saying you're COVID-19 Mary, I'm just asking questions.

To this point, the scenario you describe has no risk unless one of the individuals present is under active infection without displaying symptoms yet. Now, since you don’t know if that’s the case, the risk is obviously not zero.

With a slight correction. We know that symptomatic people are problematic. We now suspect (but don't know) that asymptomatic transmission is lower risk. What we don't know yet either is for the pre-symptomatic people- the true risk they represent.

For example, let's say you have a family member that lives in OHIO and this person wants to take a plane and come visit you for 5 days. They're exposed on Day 1 to the virus (during the flight) and by day 3 they're now clinically ill but not exhibiting visible signs and symptoms. They're not "asymptomatic" they're "pre-symtomatic" and now shedding viral particles as part of your interactions with them on days 3 and 4 but have a sub-clinical infection. Day 5 they leave, get back on the plane and when they land, report a 102 degree fever. They're clearly a risk now, but how much of a risk were they hanging out indoors, close contact, etc... on Days 3 and 4? We don't know, but it's likely > 0.

Hanging out with others outside, 6'+ feet apart and wearing masks is undoubtedly low risk.

EDIT: More from Dr. Fauchi. Remember Dr. Fauchi? I wonder what he's been up to lately.

[LordMortis]

Looking at the data (Worldometer), I feel like California is on fire.

They had ‘done so well’, but their climb is off the charts.

Florida data doesn’t look as good as they pretend either.

To me it just looks like CA doesn't care. I don't see the pace of spread getting worse, It's just not "flattening" They are still where NY was in April and just keep plodding along doubling every month or so. Hopefully, they have the hospital beds and ventilators to deal with it. If NY is their model, Cuomo started heavy measures on March 16th. It took over a month after measures were put in place to begin seeing a flattening. For California's sake, I hope open space, exercise, and a proper diet is the cure all they think it is.

[Paingod]

According to the JHU map, we can expect to roll into 2,000,000 cases tomorrow in the US.

Two million confirmed infected.

[stessier]

Go, go, South Carolina! Oh, and I live in Greenville County.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster has no intention of restricting businesses in South Carolina after a spike in confirmed cases of coronavirus.

WYFF News 4's Amanda Crawford reached out the governor's office after the recent spike in cases statewide.

"The governor has no intention of reinstating restrictions on businesses," Communications Director Brian Symmes said. "Every time he’s made a decision to lift restrictions, it was accompanied by guidelines for businesses to follow that will help protect South Carolinians. With those recommended guidelines still in place, there’s no reason to close businesses again."

As of Tuesday, South Carolina reported 15,228 cases and 568 deaths. The Department of Health and Environmental Control had tested 256,710 people as of Tuesday with 23,956 of those tests being positive.

WYFF News 4 Investigates is tracking cases reported, deaths, hospitalizations and testing across South Carolina.

On May 10, the seven-day moving average of daily cases reported in the state was 146. The figure more than doubled by June 3, and a week later hit its highest level ever – 408.3 See chart below or mobile users click here to see chart).

The 2,222 cases reported in Greenville County is the highest rate for any county in the state, though 14 other counties have a higher case rate when compared to population.

The other nine Upstate counties have a total of 1,857 cases reported combined

I can't figure out how to embed the graph, but here's the link.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/matt ... Dashboard1

[Isgrimnur]

[malchior]

I wouldn't be shocked if SC cases are clustered in the Charlotte/Fort Mills region which has exploded in density over the last few years.

[Jeff V]

Sadly, the next (and final) phase as it stands is "when there is a vaccine"

This is ultimately the thing that maximum resources should be provided for and a very prudent metric before fully returning to life as it was.

Around here, all major festivals in Chicago have been canceled, including Lollapalooza. My suburb announced today that July 4 fireworks will proceed as scheduled...but it should be noted there is no official gathering spot for the fireworks. I walked to a playground less than 2 blocks from my house last year and was able to watch them in a sparse crowd. The water park's website still says they will open near the end of June...I have season passes for my whole family, but at this point it's uncertain if we will be able to make use of them.

[RunningMn9]

With a slight correction. We know that symptomatic people are problematic. We now suspect (but don't know) that asymptomatic transmission is lower risk. What we don't know yet either is for the pre-symptomatic people- the true risk they represent.

I chose my words carefully to capture both asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals. Assuming I didn’t show up to your house symptomatic, I would only represent a risk to you if I had an active infection. What are the chances?

[RunningMn9]

I wouldn't be shocked if SC cases are clustered in the Charlotte/Fort Mills region which has exploded in density over the last few years.

That would be unfortunate. My daughter is campaigning to visit her friend in Fort Mills in late July. If that’s a hot zone, that’s gonna be a negatory good buddy.

[Skinypupy]

This just caused my blood pressure to spike

Trump says the virus is now reduced to just the "embers" and "ashes" of a spent pandemic as patience for nationwide lock downs fades and states aggressively open up.

Words cannot quite express how much I despise this man.

[Smoove_B]

For those keeping track, we're collectively still in the initial outbreak and it's now surging in ~8 different states.

[Fretmute]

I’m on a corporate corona update call every week, and the plan calls for sites to open for ever so slightly less necessary people based on a two week decline in local cases. 1 out of ~50 sites currently qualifies.

[Blackhawk]

I just got the notification that my son's high school graduation is scheduled for mid-July. It will be held indoors in the gym. Each graduate will be allowed six guests. Even with a very small, crappy school that is ~600 people crowded into the gym. After that everybody will crowd onto the front lawn for a balloon release, which is also bullshit (for a variety of reasons.)

And my choice now is to expose my family to this or have my son miss his graduation. And I also have to try and convince his elderly, diabetic, immune-compromised grandmother to skip his graduation.

[Enough]

This is a fucking travesty happening that is not getting nearly enough attention or help,

The Navajo Nation is facing a unique set of challenges amid the coronavirus outbreak that has reportedly led to a death toll higher than that of 13 different states.

The nation, which straddles the borders of Arizona, Utah and New Mexico, is home to about 175,000 people — and yet it has more cases of COVID-19 than eight states, according to The New York Times data.

The nation’s first positive case was reported on March 17, and as of Monday, there have been 1,197 confirmed cases and 44 deaths, meaning the per capita infection rate is 10 times higher than neighboring Arizona, NBC News reported.

The area has just 12 health care facilities across 27,000 square miles, and many Navajo citizens suffer chronic health issues like diabetes, heart disease and obesity, according to the outlet, which puts those who contract coronavirus at a higher risk of severe illness, the CDC has said.

[LordMortis]

This is a fucking travesty happening that is not getting nearly enough attention or help,

The Navajo Nation is facing a unique set of challenges amid the coronavirus outbreak that has reportedly led to a death toll higher than that of 13 different states.

The nation, which straddles the borders of Arizona, Utah and New Mexico, is home to about 175,000 people — and yet it has more cases of COVID-19 than eight states, according to The New York Times data.

The nation’s first positive case was reported on March 17, and as of Monday, there have been 1,197 confirmed cases and 44 deaths, meaning the per capita infection rate is 10 times higher than neighboring Arizona, NBC News reported.

The area has just 12 health care facilities across 27,000 square miles, and many Navajo citizens suffer chronic health issues like diabetes, heart disease and obesity, according to the outlet, which puts those who contract coronavirus at a higher risk of severe illness, the CDC has said.

That's from April 20th. I'm curious to know what the stats comparison is now. If things have comparatively leveled or if they're even more fooked from the hot zones all over the southwest right now.

That said, 12 health care facilities over 27,000 square miles or 1 per 2,250 square miles is nucking futz. Having care within a short drive is mandatory on my "where to live" list.

Edit Stats are in https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, though I would hazard to guess that if the health care status is correct, the Navaho nation is way under reporting.

[Enough]

This is a fucking travesty happening that is not getting nearly enough attention or help,

The Navajo Nation is facing a unique set of challenges amid the coronavirus outbreak that has reportedly led to a death toll higher than that of 13 different states.

The nation, which straddles the borders of Arizona, Utah and New Mexico, is home to about 175,000 people — and yet it has more cases of COVID-19 than eight states, according to The New York Times data.

The nation’s first positive case was reported on March 17, and as of Monday, there have been 1,197 confirmed cases and 44 deaths, meaning the per capita infection rate is 10 times higher than neighboring Arizona, NBC News reported.

The area has just 12 health care facilities across 27,000 square miles, and many Navajo citizens suffer chronic health issues like diabetes, heart disease and obesity, according to the outlet, which puts those who contract coronavirus at a higher risk of severe illness, the CDC has said.

That's from April 20th. I'm curious to know what the stats comparison is now. If things have comparatively leveled or if they're even more fooked from the hot zones all over the southwest right now.

That said, 12 health care facilities over 27,000 square miles or 1 per 2,250 square miles is nucking futz. Having care within a short drive is mandatory on my "where to live" list.

Yeah, I felt ashamed posted an old link from icky People nonetheless. But it's been on my mind. We work with some tribes and I keep hearing how they feel completely forgotten.

[Smoove_B]

I wish I could comment specifically on what's happening with the Navajo nation, but other than saying it's a legitimate humanitarian crisis that's being largely ignored by our federal government, I don't know what else to add.

This quote from Dr. Ashish Jha is an excellent summary of where we stand on 6/11/20:

"I think right now, most Americans are not ready to lock back down, and I completely understand that. ... I understand people are willing to live alongside this virus. It means that between 800 and 1,000 Americans are going to die every single day," Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told CNN.

[malchior]

If I'm reading the gauges right we are just in a steady state burn and now we're seeing other nations essentially making the same call. Save the economies over people. Scary times continue being scary.