Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Isgrimnur]

For those keeping track, we're collectively still in the initial outbreak and it's now surging in ~8 different states.

[Smoove_B]

I'm reading the gauges right we are just in a steady state burn and now we're seeing other nations essentially making the same call.

Yes. The unspoken message is that hospitals and medical staff are now prepared to deal with cases and that there really isn't a severe danger to anyone other than fat old people.

I wish I could publicly say more about what's happening in NJ right now, but I'm so gutted and professionally frustrated; it's beyond depressing. Our new cases numbers are going down (good) and we're slowly opening back up (potentially good) but we have done minimal at a state level to address contact tracing (bad, very bad). Tracing systems and infrastructure that should have been put in place 30+ days ago haven't even been started yet. If there's another surge in cases, I am not confident we're going to know about it until it's too late. My genuine feeling now is the private industry and general public are driving the policy bus, dragging us into resumption of "normal" without adequate proactive systems in place to make sure we don't go back to mid-April levels of outbreak.

The NJ "home rule" policy is something historians will talking about as part of their analysis of this outbreak. You can see the tip of the iceberg here.

[Enough]

I'm reading the gauges right we are just in a steady state burn and now we're seeing other nations essentially making the same call.

Yes. The unspoken message is that hospitals and medical staff are now prepared to deal with cases and that there really isn't a severe danger to anyone other than fat old people.

I wish I could publicly say more about what's happening in NJ right now, but I'm so gutted and professionally frustrated; it's beyond depressing. Our new cases numbers are going down (good) and we're slowly opening back up (potentially good) but we have done minimal at a state level to address contact tracing (bad, very bad). Tracing systems and infrastructure that should have been put in place 30+ days ago haven't even been started yet. If there's another surge in cases, I am not confident we're going to know about it until it's too late. My genuine feeling now is the private industry and general public are driving the policy bus, dragging us into resumption of "normal" without adequate proactive systems in place to make sure we don't go back to mid-April levels of outbreak.

The NJ "home rule" policy is something historians will talking about as part of their analysis of this outbreak. You can see the tip of the iceberg here.

I have a faint hope that the effort to reopen schools will get some contact-tracing here at least. It's a major part of our district's reopening plan that they just announced. We obviously are not going to get the needed big boost on the federal level any time soon.

[malchior]

I have to wonder if it is a crazy intersection of national policy which: extracts dollars from us and refusing to help when we need it and a malignant administration which refuses to address the pandemic mixed in with the home rule shit, and just a weak Governor? Murphy has been pretty ineffective with constant battles with Sweeney since he got in office. It is like a perfect shit storm.

[Smoove_B]

I have to wonder if it is a crazy intersection of national policy which: extracts dollars from us and refusing to help when we need it and a malignant administration which refuses to address the pandemic mixed in with the home rule shit, and just a weak Governor? Murphy has been pretty ineffective with constant battles with Sweeney since he got in office. It is like a perfect shit storm.

Yes. It's a mult-layered suck burrito. To be clear, shutting down the state was the right move; it absolutely saved lives. However, by doing so it revealed just how gutted and ineffectual our state health department is; everything - everything is on the locals. The problem is that you can't let ~95 local health agencies covering hundreds of towns create their own policy on how to open a restaurant. Or a pool. Or a day camp. Or a school. Everything must come from the state and the locals must adopt and then enforce. But the state cannot quickly make policy recommendations or publish guidelines because staffing is minimal. Lots and lots of finger pointing right now. Certain industries have stepped in and offered recommended policy guidelines but the state still needs to review, approve and then disseminate. All while trying to manage an outbreak and minimize disease spread.

What I'm seeing happen is absolutely a result of how our state is organized (from a public health standpoint), but that same system exists for all public infrastructure (i.e. the "home rule" model). If there aren't policy experts and historians making entire careers about studying NJ's response to the pandemic, I'll eat my socks.

[malchior]

I saw somewhere where someone joked that historians will specialize in quarters or months of 2020. It is just dysfunction all across everything/everywhere at the same time. The only thing people got right was to take the opportunity to tell the world that we're fucking done with this police/racism shit.

[El Guapo]

Things are reopening in MA. Saw outdoor dining at restaurants yesterday for the first time since this all started (which I understand is generally viewed as safe with appropriate distancing, FWIW). The state also released guidelines the other day on schools reopening in the fall, which as I understand revolves around: (1) capping class size at 10, and making sure desks are spaced >6 ft apart; (2) teachers and staff having PPE; and (3) kids wearing masks, and schools having masks available for kids who show up without masks.

The state teachers association isn't thrilled, on account of the state not making additional funds available in connection with this (at least not yet). You figure to make this work schools would have to drastically increase staff, to say nothing of funds for PPE and masks. You figure that's going to be difficult for even wealthy schools, let alone already underfunded schools.

[Octavious]

My office opens on Monday. Shocking nobody that follows my company history.

[Blackhawk]

Indiana just went to Stage 4 of reopening. Pretty much everything is open at 50%/75% capacity, retail stores and offices are full capacity, gatherings up to 250 (with 'social distancing' which simply will not happen with groups of hundreds), entertainment facilities, recreation facilities, and sports are all back. The only things that remain closed are festivals and large conventions.

In three weeks we go to stage 5, which is essentially a return to pre-COVID rules.

[Enough]

I saw somewhere where someone joked that historians will specialize in quarters or months of 2020. It is just dysfunction all across everything/everywhere at the same time. The only thing people got right was to take the opportunity to tell the world that we're fucking done with this police/racism shit.

Well said.

[Smoove_B]

My office opens on Monday. Shocking nobody that follows my company history.

Case in point - businesses are permitted to open Monday. Where are the guidelines? Oh, they're coming. It's Thursday afternoon!

EDIT: And a perfect example of home rule in Asbury Park:

In a move that runs contrary to Gov. Phil Murphy’s latest executive order, Asbury Park will allow its restaurants to have limited indoor dining for the first time since the state’s eateries were banned from allowing patrons to dine inside during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Asbury Park City Council approved a resolution Wednesday evening allowing restaurants to allow indoor dining at 25% of the building’s capacity or 50 people, whichever is lower, beginning Monday.

[Enough]

https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1 ... 6625037313

Spoiler:

BREAKING: @GovMikeDeWine announces the resignation of Ohio Department of Health Director @DrAmyActon.

[El Guapo]

Any context as to why she is resigning now? Is it voluntary?

[Zaxxon]

Any context as to why she is resigning now? Is it voluntary?

Read the thread Enough linked. Abuse by GOP and deplorables, basically.

[El Guapo]

Any context as to why she is resigning now? Is it voluntary?

Read the thread Enough linked. Abuse by GOP and deplorables, basically.

I did. She was hated by deplorables, and has been for some time. But what prompted her to resign *now*?

[Zaxxon]

Any context as to why she is resigning now? Is it voluntary?

Read the thread Enough linked. Abuse by GOP and deplorables, basically.

I did. She was hated by deplorables, and has been for some time. But what prompted her to resign *now*?

Good question, but not typically the type that will see a concrete answer given. We know the gov wanted her to stay (hence persuading her to stay on in an advisory capacity), so it sure seems voluntary to me.

I'd guess she hit the breaking point, but that's just a guess.

[malchior]

It probably didn't help that everyone/everywhere is yelling 'YOLO' at the top of their lungs. Advising sounds like a happy medium if you think you can better focus on more useful endeavors.

[Enough]

Wow, DOW is down 1600 points. Did Wall Street just wake up and smell the coffee again finally after the Fed comments? We have had a long run of irrational exuberance that appears to be breaking...

[Kraken]

Things are reopening in MA. Saw outdoor dining at restaurants yesterday for the first time since this all started (which I understand is generally viewed as safe with appropriate distancing, FWIW).

Based on drive-by observations of a couple of restaurants that have turned their parking lots into patios, I am not going there, as much as I'd love a draft beer and a freshly prepared meal. Lots of young guys standing around without masks, drinking Bud Light in bottles and making no discernible effort at distancing. It's just outdoor party time. The virus is still quite active in my town -- our mayor just tested positive yesterday. Not worth the risk.

The one bar that I would most like to visit reopened yesterday. They already had a patio, and expanded it into their back parking lot, which is heavily wooded. It's a pleasant space. But they aren't taking reservations, so those tables are always going to be taken by their regulars. Not worth the drive.

I reckon I'll hold out for phase 3, if we get there. Once indoor seating returns, all those new parking lot patios will be a lot less crowded.

[Isgrimnur]

Wow, DOW is down 1600 points. Did Wall Street just wake up and smell the coffee again finally after the Fed comments? We have had a long run of irrational exuberance that appears to be breaking...

Yahoo

Stocks slid, with the S&P 500 and Dow pointing to a third straight session of losses, following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, in which policymakers highlighted the ongoing economic concerns spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken to contain it.

The Dow dropped more than 6%, or greater than 1,700 points, at session lows and paced toward its worst day since mid-March. The VIX Volatility Index (^VIX), or so-called fear gauge, spiked more than 38%.

[El Guapo]

Things are reopening in MA. Saw outdoor dining at restaurants yesterday for the first time since this all started (which I understand is generally viewed as safe with appropriate distancing, FWIW).

Based on drive-by observations of a couple of restaurants that have turned their parking lots into patios, I am not going there, as much as I'd love a draft beer and a freshly prepared meal. Lots of young guys standing around without masks, drinking Bud Light in bottles and making no discernible effort at distancing. It's just outdoor party time. The virus is still quite active in my town -- our mayor just tested positive yesterday. Not worth the risk.

The one bar that I would most like to visit reopened yesterday. They already had a patio, and expanded it into their back parking lot, which is heavily wooded. It's a pleasant space. But they aren't taking reservations, so those tables are always going to be taken by their regulars. Not worth the drive.

I reckon I'll hold out for phase 3, if we get there. Once indoor seating returns, all those new parking lot patios will be a lot less crowded.

I'm inclined to do some research / asking around about what restaurants around here are doing the best with spacing and precautions, and see about arranging a date with my wife there. We didn't eat out a ton before anyway, so I don't think we're going to do much now. But it would be nice to have a genuine date night again.

[LordMortis]

Wow, DOW is down 1600 points. Did Wall Street just wake up and smell the coffee again finally after the Fed comments? We have had a long run of irrational exuberance that appears to be breaking...

Yahoo

Stocks slid, with the S&P 500 and Dow pointing to a third straight session of losses, following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, in which policymakers highlighted the ongoing economic concerns spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken to contain it.

The Dow dropped more than 6%, or greater than 1,700 points, at session lows and paced toward its worst day since mid-March. The VIX Volatility Index (^VIX), or so-called fear gauge, spiked more than 38%.

And I'm finally starting to pick up and buy again. Starting. It may not be wise this early. But I've tucked away everything nearly 3 months running, marveling at what people consider value in a market where the only being consumed is food and media. And buying on the way down seems to be easier for me than pretending I know what a bottom is. I was pretty happy with the results of buying on the way down in early March. I just have to not over commit too early, as part of the reason for keeping all things cash is if manufacturing completely shits the bed then I'll be out of job not just on/off/on/off/on/off furlough.

VTI is actually my barometer. It peaked at around a crazy a $164 from it's pre COVID shutdown peak of around $172. Right now it's back under $152 which is about where I started buying before. I ran out of cash well before it hit a low around $110 and I'm sure I'll do it again if we hit level of shitter again. I don't think we will unless all that options trading insanity gambling to replace sportsbook while sitting at home comes to roost. I suppose we'll find out next Friday/Saturday.

I'm guessing a lot of my orders are going to hit over night and fill first thing in the morning and I'm going to feel broke as the cash to back those orders turns in to equities.

[Smoove_B]

I'd guess she hit the breaking point, but that's just a guess.

Death threats will do that, yes.

[LordMortis]

I'd guess she hit the breaking point, but that's just a guess.

Death threats will do that, yes.

Not to mention the hypocrisy of trying to keep people safe and being attacked for it, probably because you are woman. I say this because in Michigan we don't attack the Health department. We attack the governor. We largely followed suit from Ohio. They were the beacon that got our state moving even as we were way harder hit. What do Whitmer and Acton have in common? What sets apart DeWine from Acton and Whitmer? Hmmm...

[Enough]

I'd guess she hit the breaking point, but that's just a guess.

Death threats will do that, yes.

Not to mention the hypocrisy of trying to keep people safe and being attacked for it, probably because you are woman. I say this because in Michigan we don't attack the Health department. We attack the governor. We largely followed suit from Ohio. They were the beacon that got our state moving even as we were way harder hit. What do Whitmer and Acton have in common? What sets apart DeWine from Acton and Whitmer? Hmmm...

Apologies in advance for the cross-pollination. But I wonder if it's the same reason that it's primarily trans femmes that are taking all the heat re JKR screed?

https://twitter.com/samdylanfinch/statu ... 6942919680

Spoiler:

I want to point out that while I understand that JKR's letter took jabs at trans people of all sorts, it's STILL primarily trans femmes taking the heat for speaking out.

I'm not getting harassed for this thread at all. But I'm watching trans femmes being attacked elsewhere.

[LordMortis]

Apologies in advance for the cross-pollination. But I wonder if it's the same reason that it's primarily trans femmes that are taking all the heat re JKR screed?

This is kinda the year cross-pollinating social awareness.

[El Guapo]

Are we getting intersectional all up in here?

[Enough]

Are we getting intersectional all up in here?

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/sta ... 9512546305

Interesting. Doesn't make masks a cure-all (and when you go out you can't trust that others around you will be wearing masks), but still a positive sign on the efficacy of masks.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/sta ... 9512546305

Interesting. Doesn't make masks a cure-all (and when you go out you can't trust that others around you will be wearing masks), but still a positive sign on the efficacy of masks.

Please, no one tell dear leader or he'll be promoting daily hairspray injections and oral ingestion of Barbicide.

[malchior]

Please, no one tell dear leader or he'll be promoting daily hairspray injections and oral ingestion of Barbicide.

That or he doesn't care.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 6974001152

[Enough]

https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/sta ... 9512546305

Interesting. Doesn't make masks a cure-all (and when you go out you can't trust that others around you will be wearing masks), but still a positive sign on the efficacy of masks.

https://twitter.com/conradhackett/statu ... 2408940546

https://twitter.com/conradhackett/statu ... 2408940546

Spoiler:

"In all scenarios the study looked at, routine face mask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R of less than 1.0, flattening future disease waves and allowing for less stringent lockdowns."

[Enough]

On a related note, my wife has been having a person help her sew who said there is no way I will ever send my kids to school masked and so she will go to home-schooling.

[Unagi]

I'm not sure I am going to be ready to send my two kids back to school come fall, and I anticipate they (the schools) will be pushing for it.

I'm not sure what I'm to do.

[LordMortis]

I'm not sure I am going to be ready to send my two kids back to school come fall, and I anticipate they (the schools) will be pushing for it.

I'm not sure what I'm to do.

I'm not sure I'm to be ready to work around people who send their kids back to school come fall. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be filled anxiety and try to avoid all of the young parents in the office, which is not good for my position.

[Enough]

I'm not sure I am going to be ready to send my two kids back to school come fall, and I anticipate they (the schools) will be pushing for it.

I'm not sure what I'm to do.

I'm not sure I'm to be ready to work around people who send their kids back to school come fall. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be filled anxiety and try to avoid all of the young parents in the office, which is not good for my position.

I work in a room with no windows and an ancient hvac system that blows on my desk. Our building in home to the manly not gonna wear a mask facilities dudes that every time I go in for essential IT duties are not masked and meeting in close quarters in tiny offices against university policy. Can't say I am stoked about going back either.

[Enough]

It will be years before we quantify the real toll of COVID,

The Northern Colorado Drug Task Force says they have seen a significant spike in drugs usage since the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic. Drug overdose fatalities in 2020 are already on pace to more than double the number from last year.

Twenty-five people died of drug overdoses in Larimer County in 2019 while 28 Larimer County residents have died due to drug overdoses in the first six months of 2020. Only 21 have died in the county due to COVID-19 in the same period.

[Smoove_B]

Alarming rise in 21 states:

There is no single reason for the surges. In some cases, more testing has revealed more cases. In others, local outbreaks are big enough to push statewide tallies higher. But experts think at least some are due to lifting stay-at-home orders, school and business closures, and other restrictions put in place during the spring to stem the virus’s spread.

...

The virus is also gradually fanning out.

“It is a disaster that spreads,” said Dr. Jay Butler, who oversees coronavirus response work at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “It’s not like there’s an entire continental seismic shift and everyone feels the shaking all at once.”

That is also happening globally. Places that suffered early on such as China, Italy and Spain have calmed down but Brazil, India and other countries that were spared initially are seeing large increases. The world is seeing more than 100,000 newly-confirmed cases every day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The virus first landed on the U.S. coasts, carried by international travelers infected abroad. For months, the epicenter was in northeastern states. More recently, the biggest increases have been in the South and the West.

[LordMortis]

I work in a room with no windows and an ancient hvac system that blows on my desk. Our building in home to the manly not gonna wear a mask facilities dudes that every time I go in for essential IT duties are not masked and meeting in close quarters in tiny offices against university policy. Can't say I am stoked about going back either.

I didn't even think about the HVAC part.

[Unagi]

Look at the bright side.
The hospitals feel they can handle the influx of patients now.