Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

I haven't seen the hard numbers yet but some.reports are coming in that TN has seen a 40% increase in hospitalizations over the last 5 days.

[em2nought]

Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

I hope you're just trolling as that is a seriously effed up world view that the Dems would sacrifice 200k+ American lives to make Trump look bad.

Plus countless others across the globe. Is it such a stretch from this?

Bill Maher said Friday that he is "hoping" for the bottom to fall out of the economy and for the country to enter a recession so we can "get rid of Trump."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... ion.html#!

[malchior]

Still hard to decouple from increasing testing but with other indicators like hospitalizations the outlook is not promising.

https://mobile.twitter.com/thehowie/sta ... 1172983810

[LordMortis]

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down.

To expose Trump's inability to do anything even remotely helpful in trying to stop it? Wouldn't this have been a slam dunk for him to address and then really stick it to the libs by proactively responding back in January when he seemingly learned about it? I am genuinely not following the logic here. The virus didn't make Trump look bad - he managed to do that all by himself.

Corrupt democrats are so good at controlling government, they convinced the president they had created a farce, so he could come out against tracking and containing the spread while they spread the virus by means concentrating it in blue urban centers for distribution to the rest of the United States, riling up blue states so they don't vote red.

[Jaymann]

Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

I hope you're just trolling as that is a seriously effed up world view that the Dems would sacrifice 200k+ American lives to make Trump look bad.

Plus countless others across the globe. Is it such a stretch from this?

Bill Maher said Friday that he is "hoping" for the bottom to fall out of the economy and for the country to enter a recession so we can "get rid of Trump."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... ion.html#!

Wow, he's really an asshole. I bet he even takes glee in the suffering of poor brown people trying to cross the border for a better life.

[Holman]

Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

I hope you're just trolling as that is a seriously effed up world view that the Dems would sacrifice 200k+ American lives to make Trump look bad.

Plus countless others across the globe. Is it such a stretch from this?

Bill Maher said Friday that he is "hoping" for the bottom to fall out of the economy and for the country to enter a recession so we can "get rid of Trump."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... ion.html#!

So the fact that Dems and others hoped Trump's tax-cut sugar-high for the stock market (and nothing else) would reveal itself to be economically untenable (which it is) means that Dems conspired with China to commit germ-warfare mass-murder against the United States? That's where your politics take you?

Just checking.

[Alefroth]

Plus countless others across the globe. Is it such a stretch from this?

Bill Maher said Friday that he is "hoping" for the bottom to fall out of the economy and for the country to enter a recession so we can "get rid of Trump."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... ion.html#!

You really don't know the answer? You're providing a lot of insight today.

[YellowKing]

So let me get this straight.

The same Democrats who, in your view:

- Left classified email information on private servers
- Bungled a Benghazi raid that led to the death of 4 Americans
- Stupidly got caught trying to investigate Michael Flynn illegally
- Ran a failed Deep State impeachment attempt

Are the same Democrats who pulled off a Bond villain-esque evil genius scheme to bio-engineer and weaponize a virus calculated to spread throughout the world, disrupt the global economy, and bring about Trump's election loss.........and never left one piece of evidence behind to expose their grand conspiracy?

[malchior]

Duh. The deep state helped too. They are afraid of Trump's bold new vision that stops endless war. And finally puts those boots where they belong! In our cities making sure that whites are safe!

[$iljanus]

So let me get this straight.

The same Democrats who, in your view:

- Left classified email information on private servers
- Bungled a Benghazi raid that led to the death of 4 Americans
- Stupidly got caught trying to investigate Michael Flynn illegally
- Ran a failed Deep State impeachment attempt

Are the same Democrats who pulled off a Bond villain-esque evil genius scheme to bio-engineer and weaponize a virus calculated to spread throughout the world, disrupt the global economy, and bring about Trump's election loss.........and never left one piece of evidence behind to expose their grand conspiracy?

The Russians would call that "maskirovka"...

[Smoove_B]

Some interesting news out of Ft. Benning (6/1/20):

The U.S. Army tested a cohort 640 new recruits and instructors for COVID-19 upon arrival at Fort Benning, Ga. All but four tested negative. Eight days later, 142 of them retested positive.

...

All 640 recruits entered a 14-day monitoring period, with the four COVID-positive recruits isolated and properly treated.

After the 14-day monitoring period, training operations began with COVID-19 prevention measures in place including masks and social distancing. Despite these efforts, however, eight days after the end of the 14-day monitoring period, one recruit reported to the chain of command with COVID-19 symptoms.

All 640 recruits -- which form 30th AG Battalion and 2nd Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment -- were retested for COVID-19. After all 640 tests were returned over a two-day period, that same cohort of recruits had a 22 percent COVID-positive rate with 142 positive tests.

[LawBeefaroni]

So 142 test positive. 14-16 days later they retested everyone again and another 142 positive tests.

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

[noxiousdog]

So 142 test positive. 14-16 days later they retested everyone again and another 142 positive tests.

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

day 1 - 4 positive
day 14 - 142 positive.

[LawBeefaroni]

So 142 test positive. 14-16 days later they retested everyone again and another 142 positive tests.

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

day 1 - 4 positive
day 14 - 142 positive.

Ah, got it. I was dumb and misread the clipped excerpt as chronological.

[noxiousdog]

So 142 test positive. 14-16 days later they retested everyone again and another 142 positive tests.

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

day 1 - 4 positive
day 14 - 142 positive.

Ah, got it. I was dumb and misread the clipped excerpt as chronological.

Not at all. I had to read the details and make some deductions. It wasn't clear at all.

[Pyperkub]

If it's a marathon, the US Army just hit the wall:

The U.S. Army tested a cohort 640 new recruits and instructors for COVID-19 upon arrival at Fort Benning, Ga. All but four tested negative. Eight days after training started, 142 of them retested positive.

According to a release from U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, 640 new recruits arrived at Fort Benning and were medically screened and tested by medical professionals. At the time, four tested positive. All 640 recruits entered a 14-day monitoring period, with the four COVID-positive recruits isolated and properly treated.

After the 14-day monitoring period, training operations began with COVID-19 prevention measures in place including masks and social distancing. Despite these efforts, however, eight days after the end of the 14-day monitoring period, one recruit reported to the chain of command with COVID-19 symptoms.

All 640 recruits -- which form 30th AG Battalion and 2nd Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment -- were retested for COVID-19. After all 640 tests were returned over a two-day period, that same cohort of recruits had a 22 percent COVID-positive rate with 142 positive tests.

[Smoove_B]

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

[noxiousdog]

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

Curved swords are better for slashing.

[Pyperkub]

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

All the same recruits (hence re-testing).

PS and no, not a clone army

[TheMix]

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

All the same recruits (hence re-testing).

PS and no, not a clone army

I believe, though I could be wrong, that Smoove was doing a subtle/silly/funny "BAM!". i.e. Look up a bit from your post.

[Pyperkub]

Different 142? Some the same? Many? All?

All the same recruits (hence re-testing).

PS and no, not a clone army

I believe, though I could be wrong, that Smoove was doing a subtle/silly/funny "BAM!". i.e. Look up a bit from your post.

OK, I'm an idiot.

[Smoove_B]

It's definitely a story to be shared. We must be circulating in the same news pools and I suspect I know which one.

[$iljanus]

First there’s the Supreme Court decision and now this declaration from the FDA. Suck it Orangeman!

The Food and Drug Administration withdrew its emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and a related drug that President Trump promoted for treatment of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
The FDA said it had concluded that it “is no longer reasonable to believe” that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are effective in treating the disease. “Nor is it reasonable to believe,” the agency said, "that the known and potential benefits of these products outweigh their known and potential risks.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ronavirus/

(Trump then announces that Jared Kushner is appointed as acting director of the FDA... )

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/jeffmason1/status/1 ... 4780285954

[Zarathud]

The stupidity is incredible. The Orange Emperor has no clothes.

Maybe if they stop writing articles about him, he won’t be President. Same logic.

[Holman]

He doesn't care about the victims. He only cares about his numbers.

[Blackhawk]

Maybe if I stop reading the news, bad things will stop happening.

[LordMortis]

I'm having a weird bit of internal hypocrite going on. I firmly believe we should support the millions of workers and small business owners out there struggling through this. Then I read about all of these AirBnB "empires" going under. Essentially people who cashed out everything to take on massive real estate debt so they could become full time AirBnB hosts. I'm reading about people a combined mortgages building equity in the tens of thousands of dollars amount that were being paid off and paying for their lifestyles and now not only have no income but still have the tens of thousands in mortgages, i.e. re-posseable collateral. Something they could walk away from like the masses did in 2008-2010. I feel no sympathy for them, when I know I should. I guess not walking away from underwater real estate debt and now living in a neighborhood interspersed with slumlord renting and seeing people leveraging their assets to a ridiculous amount not a decade after a crises we only put a band-aid on has made me jaded to the idea that collecting and leveraging an every growing real estate debt and counting on tenants and increasing property values to pay it to make you money just pushes my buttons.

It probably also doesn't help that two of my neighbors built instant backyard pools. I assume that's a thing now. A COVID this how we isolate at home thing. Doing a one day install of Really cheap above ground pools... and one of them is blasting music all day, inviting their friends and family to loud talk and drink while I am trying to WFH.

/grump

[Isgrimnur]

The second wave of the economic crash is coming. Perhaps that will address some of the housing issues. Real estate helped cause the last recession. I guess they didn’t learn enough with the rents market to prevent over inflation again.

[Smoove_B]

It probably also doesn't help that two of my neighbors built instant backyard pools. I assume that's a thing now. A COVID this how we isolate at home thing. Doing a one day install of Really cheap above ground pools... and one of them is blasting music all day, inviting their friends and family to loud talk and drink while I am trying to WFH.

There's an app called Swimply for pool sharing. I don't know if it was popular before COVID-19, but it's all the rage now.

I feel like we're in the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ snowball now. As more things open, the perception is that everything is fine. And when the perception is that everything is fine, people are more likely to approve things opening. I just saw that the Texas State fair announced they're not changing their plans and will be holding their annual event as scheduled (end of September 2020). One the one hand, that's three months away. But on the other things are not looking great as our numbers continue to climb nationwide. We're likely going to hit 120K national deaths by weeks end. Remember when we hit 50K and that was unthinkable? 100K during Memorial Day weekend? We should hit ~145K by the end of July. Will 200K happen in September or October?

Meanwhile VP Pence is telling President Trump that Oklahoma managed to "flatten the curve". I'll leave that up to you to see what his interpretation of a "flattened curve" looks like.

So much time has been squandered and now there's no choice but to prop up the economy. I can't help but think future historians are going to ponder WTF we were doing at great length.

[malchior]

I am beginning to think future historians will have seen the end to end of the United States decline and this will just be a part of the story. Much of this is no different than the many, many other governance crises we have had. The scale is just worse.

[Kraken]

As a character on Buffy once said, "I suddenly find myself needing to know the plural of 'apocalypse'."

As bad as this year has been, I worry that it's a warmup to next year. The aftermath of the election is going to be nasty, regardless of who wins. Neither side will be good sports about losing.

[Jeff V]

Neither side will be good sports about losing.

We can only hope one side loses so badly that their pleas for pity go unheeded. For many years to come.

[YellowKing]

Our state has entered the "Susan Collins" phase of re-opening, where "we are very concerned" about the numbers even though we are doing absolutely nothing about it. There have been threats of making masks mandatory, rolling back to Phase 1, etc. but so far every press conference is just furrowed brows and disapproving frowns.

I'll have to say it's a bit disappointing from a leadership that constantly stresses how their decisions are being driven purely by science and data. Except when that science and data trends negatively, I guess.

[LawBeefaroni]

Breaking news about a steroidal treatment study with positive results driving market to DOW +850.


From what I'm seeing maybe a 20%-35% decrease in mortality. Not a vaccine, just improved recovery for the most ill Covid patients.

[Max Peck]

Breaking news about a steroidal treatment study with positive results driving market to DOW +850.


From what I'm seeing maybe a 20%-35% decrease in mortality. Not a vaccine, just improved recovery for the most ill Covid patients.

First drug proves able to improve survival from COVID-19

Researchers in England say they have the first evidence that a drug can improve COVID-19 survival: A steroid called dexamethasone reduced deaths by up to one third in severely ill hospitalized patients.

Results were announced Tuesday and researchers said they would publish them soon. The study is a large, strict test that randomly assigned 2,104 patients to get the drug and compared them with 4,321 patients getting only usual care.

The drug was given either orally or through an IV. It reduced deaths by 35% in patients who needed treatment with breathing machines and by 20% in those only needing supplemental oxygen. It did not appear to help less ill patients.

This is the same study that earlier this month showed the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine was not working against the coronavirus. The study enrolled more than 11,000 patients in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who were given either standard of care or that plus one of several treatments: the HIV combo drug lopinavir-ritonavir, the antibiotic azithromycin; the steroid dexamethasone, the anti-inflammatory drug tocilizumab, or plasma from people who have recovered from COVID-19 that contains antibodies to fight the virus.

Research is continuing on the other treatments. The research is funded by government health agencies in the United Kingdom and private donors including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

[Grifman]

So I think the big question is this - if the situation gets bad again in states that have re-opened - will they shut down again? Especially the large number of red states that largely avoided problems early on, but now are trending up? They have treated this as much of political question as a public health question. Will they shut down to slow the virus again? Can they politically afford to do so? Can any state for that matter?

[malchior]

It depends. If we see healthcare systems buckle then all bets are off.

[LawBeefaroni]

So I think the big question is this - if the situation gets bad again in states that have re-opened - will they shut down again? Especially the large number of red states that largely avoided problems early on, but now are trending up? They have treated this as much of political question as a public health question. Will they shut down to slow the virus again? Can they politically afford to do so? Can any state for that matter?

They won't shut down. They will probably require masks and should go active on contact tracing but they won't shut down. They may limit business (50% restaurant capacity, etc) but businesses and citizens won't stand for renewed shutdowns and there is a lot of perception that shutting down was a complete fail (even thought it wasn't).

There is no political will for more shutdowns.

[Holman]

So I think the big question is this - if the situation gets bad again in states that have re-opened - will they shut down again? Especially the large number of red states that largely avoided problems early on, but now are trending up? They have treated this as much of political question as a public health question. Will they shut down to slow the virus again? Can they politically afford to do so? Can any state for that matter?

Red States won't. They're too invested in the narrative that closures are behind us.

I wonder if it will come down to individual institutions making their own decisions. My university is preparing to open on-campus in late August, but instructors have been told to be ready to shift back to remote teaching on a few days' notice if necessary. They've eliminated Fall break from the calendar, expecting to use it as a brief transitional holiday at whatever point a shift becomes necessary.

It will be harder for smaller businesses to temporarily close down, as I doubt the GOP will be willing to make financial payouts or protections available. A return to masking and customer spacing might be the best we can hope for there.