Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:50 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:I wonder how this trash person got the idea that these must be two Antifa guys?

He got to play dress-up in fatigues and be The Man; don't overthink it.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Jun 14, 2020 2:07 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:44 pm
malchior wrote:It is for predicting winners but we're getting close enough to be able to use them as indicators how competitive the race itself may be.
Hear that whooshing sound?

Yeah - it is getting pretty loud.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:02 pm

Alefroth wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:43 pm 2020 even got Isg posting in the wrong thread.

I had to make a choice between the racism angle and the Antifa angle. I went with the latter.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:35 pm

Very strong ad:

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:12 am

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1272278477769670659

Did she not notice that this poll was about Arkansas? Or is she too dumb to realize that a poll showing Biden and Trump tied in Arkansas would be horrifically bad for Trump?

Not that I buy that they are tied in Arkansas, but if they were, that would arguably be a worse result than a national poll showing Biden up 14.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:43 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:12 am https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1272278477769670659

Did she not notice that this poll was about Arkansas? Or is she too dumb to realize that a poll showing Biden and Trump tied in Arkansas would be horrifically bad for Trump?

Door 3. She is working off the Kelly Anne school of communications and just spinning for an audience of one. She went on Stelter's show yesterday and misrepresented facts there as well. She is just bullshitting and I expect she knows what she is doing like all these other frauds. If Trump loses, she should be put on a 'do not ever allow in public service again' list like all the other wretched hardcore Trumpists.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:54 am

malchior wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:43 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:12 am https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1272278477769670659

Did she not notice that this poll was about Arkansas? Or is she too dumb to realize that a poll showing Biden and Trump tied in Arkansas would be horrifically bad for Trump?
Door 3. She is working off the Kelly Anne school of communications and just spinning for an audience of one. She went on Stelter's show yesterday and misrepresented facts there as well. She is just bullshitting and I expect she knows what she is doing like all these other frauds. If Trump loses, she should be put on a 'do not ever allow in public service again' list like all the other wretched hardcore Trumpists.

Oh, that makes sense. Trump is definitely too dumb to realize how bad being tied in AR would be.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:51 am

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/stat ... 6838671361

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:55 am

I can't ever remember seeing anything like these early polls. They are all trending away from him. The ramp up to criminality and dirty tricks has to be right around the corner.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:57 am

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:55 am The ramp up to criminality and dirty tricks has to be right around the corner.

I sure hope it's not a ramp down - Trump can barely negotiate those!

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271902553417138176

I know it's not cool to make fun of the elderly, but he's not well.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:59 am

I think it's fitting karma for the party which fell all over themselves trying to prove Hillary's fake health issues and inability to open a pickle jar.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:03 pm

The usual defense is that between teleprompter and off the cuff. That doesn't explain the slurring.

https://twitter.com/Van_Firth/status/12 ... 3236612097

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/stat ... 8315707392

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm

Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:49 pm

One story i read said that most trump voters won't talk to pollsters, and a large percentage of those who do, lie to throw off the results and make Democrats complacent. So that's one take, anyway.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:52 pm

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.

A lot of people didn't think Trump could win and didn't bother to vote. I highly doubt this will be as common this time around.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:14 pm

Octavious wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.
A lot of people didn't think Trump could win and didn't bother to vote. I highly doubt this will be as common this time around.

I think it's more that the media did a terrible job covering Trump in 2016, and a lot of people supported him because: (1) they wrongly believed that he was a moderate; (2) they wrongly believed that Clinton was more corrupt than Trump; (3) Trump was an 'outsider' who would 'shake things up' (which is kind of true, though I think most people are finding that they don't like things being shaken up).

It's those people that are gettable (plus people angry about how things generally suck now).

But we also need to be cautious with state level polling right now, because there aren't a lot of state-level polls right now (so less to aggregate).

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:11 pm

Octavious wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.
A lot of people didn't think Trump could win and didn't bother to vote. I highly doubt this will be as common this time around.

I'm not going to pretend to know how voters work anymore, nor to know jack shit about Florida but it would not be hard to convince me that COVID 19 response plus the spikes happening in Florida right now are seeing the 20.5% of the population being 65+ questioning if their needs are really being addressed by the current administration. Should no increased death toll occur from the current reported infection spike, I could see convincing me getting more difficult, should the death toll become a daily shocker like my local populace saw, it may even become easier to convince that Biden goes by 10. People don't like the idea of being on sacrificial block for vanity. I don't doubt that COVID 19 response has influenced elder trust in the GOP where I'm at, where the"but" part of "I don't like what is going on but..." is being slowly being removed from my seniors thought processes and it's bleeding over into the old "Compassionate conservatism" I remember people bleating in the 80s.

I still don't trust where we are at but that's because I didn't think it would take a take all of 2.5 years to see Orcs raised to march from Mordor.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:21 pm

LordMortis wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:11 pm
Octavious wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.
A lot of people didn't think Trump could win and didn't bother to vote. I highly doubt this will be as common this time around.
I'm not going to pretend to know how voters work anymore, nor to know jack shit about Florida but it would not be hard to convince me that COVID 19 response plus the spikes happening in Florida right now are seeing the 20.5% of the population being 65+ questioning if their needs are really being addressed by the current administration. Should no increased death toll occur from the current reported infection spike, I could see convincing me getting more difficult, should the death toll become a daily shocker like my local populace saw, it may even become easier to convince that Biden goes by 10. People don't like the idea of being on sacrificial block for vanity. I don't doubt that COVID 19 response has influenced elder trust in the GOP where I'm at, where the"but" part of "I don't like what is going on but..." is being slowly being removed from my seniors thought processes and it's bleeding over into the old "Compassionate conservatism" I remember people bleating in the 80s.

I still don't trust where we are at but that's because I didn't think it would take a take all of 2.5 years to see Orcs raised to march from Mordor.

I suppose that it's plausible that the GOP's public "the elderly need to die so that the economy can live" stance is having negative electoral consequences for them, especially in Florida.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:34 pm

I think I read somewhere that that particular Florida poll didn't "control for education" (something something pollster sorcery), so it shouldn't be taken statistically seriously but still serves as a windsock.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:21 am

Looks like the decision to forcibly remove protesters so that Trump could have a lame picture with a Bible might not have been an electorally sound one.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status ... 3544496131

(Note: Don't make the same mistake I somehow did and assume that the tweet means the Pollster is very pro-Bernie and so Bernie supporters consider the polls porn. The name of the pollster is, in fact, Bernie Porn.

)

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:59 am

I have so little faith in polls and in the media's narrative of who is "winning" the electoral horse race on any given day. I don't believe lessons from 2016 were learned. I'm afraid we'll see history repeat itself.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:10 am

Kurth wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:59 am I have so little faith in polls and in the media's narrative of who is "winning" the electoral horse race on any given day. I don't believe lessons from 2016 were learned. I'm afraid we'll see history repeat itself.

Polls were very accurate in 2016. Trump lead the primary polls for essentially the entire GOP primary (even while most people tended not to believe the polls during most of the primary). In the general Clinton had a consistent lead throughout 2016, BUT: (1) it was a narrow lead; and (2) Clinton never approached 50% in polls, which meant that Trump could overcome Clinton's narrow lead by winning mostly Republicans + independents.

A core problem was that much / most of the media assumed that Trump would inevitably win, and so they tended to disbelieve the polls that indicated that he could win (or was likely to win, in the case of the GOP primary). Ironically the media has tended to learn the opposite lesson from reality - having disregarded the polls in 2016 that showed that Trump could win, pundits tend to conclude not that they should have believed the polls, but that Trump has some kind of political magic which defies polling. So now a lot of them are too *optimistic* about Trump.

That said, it is true that the horse race stuff right now doesn't matter all that much. We can safely say that Biden is way ahead, but there's plenty of time left for things to turn around (plus the election itself is probably going to be a nightmare in a few different ways).

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:13 am

Kurth wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:59 am I have so little faith in polls and in the media's narrative of who is "winning" the electoral horse race on any given day. I don't believe lessons from 2016 were learned. I'm afraid we'll see history repeat itself.

It's worth remembering that the polls in 2016 were actually very accurate. Even Hillary's Comey-announcement crash was reflected in the latest polls taken before election day.

I think what's changed most (and what gives me hope) is that Democrats have learned the lesson of complacency. That's been borne out in every midterm and special election since 2016.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:22 am

Kurth wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:59 am I have so little faith in polls and in the media's narrative of who is "winning" the electoral horse race on any given day. I don't believe lessons from 2016 were learned. I'm afraid we'll see history repeat itself.

The polls weren't wrong in 2016. They actually came in relatively close to target. The CW however was that Trump couldn't win and to be honest he shouldn't have. Many estimates gave him a low chance to win and he only won by the thinnest of margins.

Now the media is another story. They suck and continue to suck. They're doing the same thing they did in 2016, amplifying the noise. They don't serve to help anyone find the signal. Their business model revolves around folks consuming all that noise and never being satisfied. We're as much a junk information society as we are a junk food one.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:36 am

Looking at the aggregated replies to Kurth's post, the overall results indicate: BAM!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:49 pm

Again, I don't know shit and I'm afraid to hope but the poor old guy in NY shoved by the cops and the hospitalized with a skull fracture is just not going away. Our collective short attention spans suddenly aren't. The next bit of craziness isn't drowning out the last bit of craziness like it has been for three years running. People who weren't keeping up are latching on to events. Trump may no longer be calling the guy Antifa with some hightech malicious equipment but it's not going away. Tulsa may not be touted by the GOP for Friday but Juneteenth is already household word when it wasn't three weeks ago and now it's intertwined with massacres most of didn't know existed until just now.

May this consciousness, this awareness, this offense at who we are capable of being not go away.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:47 pm

Also, in 2016 we had some things we don't have now:

Complacency
HRC disgust
Anti-woman vote
tRump was an unknown commodity
A sitting impeached President (granted this didn't hurt Bill)
An FBI investigation

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:48 pm

I find it strange that Trump is not more actively going after Biden. He's getting pounded in the polls, but other than the occasional tweet, i haven't really seen anything.

Is he too distracted by current events? It's not like he's actively doing anything about Covid or police brutality (other than his token, bare-minimum executive order), so what gives? Is he dealing with it the same way he dealt with the protests - hunkering down waiting for it to blow over?

Does he really even want this job anymore? Maybe he's throwing in the towel.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:51 pm

Speaking of 2020, this election year has had a lot more "news" than the typical Presidential election year, and we're only halfway through it.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 6440009728

On the other hand, I don't particularily remember 2016 as being very newsworthy, as compared to 2008, which was, so I'm not sure this measurement is all that great (or maybe my memory isn't).

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:56 pm

YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:48 pm I find it strange that Trump is not more actively going after Biden. He's getting pounded in the polls, but other than the occasional tweet, i haven't really seen anything.

Is he too distracted by current events? It's not like he's actively doing anything about Covid or police brutality (other than his token, bare-minimum executive order), so what gives? Is he dealing with it the same way he dealt with the protests - hunkering down waiting for it to blow over?

Does he really even want this job anymore? Maybe he's throwing in the towel.

He has tweeted about Biden a lot. I think a lot of it is that Biden is viewed by the media generally as boring, vanilla, nice, and not corrupt (plus the media is very focused on coronavirus and racism issues right now). I think that makes it hard for him to generate the echo chamber media effect that he was able to in 2016 (as the media viewed Clinton with a lot more suspicion). In some ways it's the upside of the effect that makes it hard for Biden to generate a lot of positive / substantive media coverage of him.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:01 pm

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.

Time alone won't do it. There has to be some sort of impetus and I can't really imagine what that would be.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:05 pm

Alefroth wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:01 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm Some of these individual polls I have a hard time believing (hard to believe that Biden is up by *10* in Florida), but taken together they all point towards a very large Biden lead.

There's enough time for things to swing back towards Trump, but for now, it's nice to see.
Time alone won't do it. There has to be some sort of impetus and I can't really imagine what that would be.

The protests could end, I suppose. Best case for Trump would be some sort of dramatic 'unrest' event that sours people on the protests - something like a video of an African-American man executing police officers, or something like that.

Hard to see how he could plausibly escape the coronavirus / economic issues, though. Unless there's some miracle cure / vaccine developed in the fall.

Does seem unlikely. But he just needs to get close enough for electoral college / voter suppression / voting shenanigan effects to swing things in his direction.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:10 pm

YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:48 pm I find it strange that Trump is not more actively going after Biden. He's getting pounded in the polls, but other than the occasional tweet, i haven't really seen anything.

Don Jr. and people like Jenna Ellis are carrying that water right now.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:13 pm

Alefroth wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:10 pm
YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:48 pm I find it strange that Trump is not more actively going after Biden. He's getting pounded in the polls, but other than the occasional tweet, i haven't really seen anything.
Don Jr. and people like Jenna Ellis are carrying that water right now.

I don't think that's getting beyond Trump's base, though. Trump needs credulous and sustained "questions raised" type coverage from mainstream media sources to really have an impact.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:48 pm

Jaymann wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:47 pm Also, in 2016 we had some things we don't have now:

Complacency
HRC disgust
Anti-woman vote
tRump was an unknown commodity
A sitting impeached President (granted this didn't hurt Bill)
An FBI investigation

Impeachment wouldn't have hurt Bill Clinton's chances for reelection since he was impeached during his second term.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:34 pm

I thought the inquiry started near the end of his first term.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:38 pm

Jaymann wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:34 pm I thought the inquiry started near the end of his first term.

The Lewinsky affair became public in January 1998. Ken Starr had a roving inquiry of Clinton going back to I think 1995, but the affair (which is what he was impeached over) didn't become public until then.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:59 pm

To be fair, IIRC, impeachment didn't hurt the Democrats in the midterm, either. Nor, IIRC, did it hurt Clinton's approval rating.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:02 pm

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:13 pm
Alefroth wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:10 pm
YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:48 pm I find it strange that Trump is not more actively going after Biden. He's getting pounded in the polls, but other than the occasional tweet, i haven't really seen anything.
Don Jr. and people like Jenna Ellis are carrying that water right now.
I don't think that's getting beyond Trump's base, though. Trump needs credulous and sustained "questions raised" type coverage from mainstream media sources to really have an impact.

That's the challenge Trump has always faced this year. Trump has his dedicated base, but has no real way to actively recruit new people to his camp. At this point, you've either bought into his morass of racism, xenophobia, and jingoism, or you haven't. He's not going to convince anyone who isn't already convinced. Interestingly, he had a golden opportunity to get people to jump on the Trump bandwagon if he could have managed COVID-19 even semi-competently, but we know how that turned out.

His success hinges solely on energizing his base and getting every single one of them out to vote, then hoping that a) enough people are uninspired by the options that they sit out the election again, or b) election interference (which is, admittedly, a very serious concern). Problem is, most people simply don't see Biden as the nefarious boogeyman that Hillary was made out to be.

Also, while literally nobody is excited for President Biden, there seems to be less and less tolerance and enthusiasm for the non-stop Trump shitshow, even among his most ardent supporters that I know. That could be purely anecdotal though.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:00 pm

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:36 am Looking at the aggregated replies to Kurth's post, the overall results indicate: BAM!

Fair enough. I suppose I should have placed my doubt in the media and its CW instead. I just seem to remember lots of talking heads and pundits referencing polls and numbers that made a Trump victory look like a near impossibility. Maybe I'm misremembering, or maybe they were mischaracterizing the numbers at the time.