Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

I said it last month or maybe even in April (I can't remember anymore). If there's another round of restrictions, it's not going to go well in any state. I'm not really sure what to make of what's happening in the red states that are experiencing a significant increase in cases and how they're going to ultimately react. My gut is telling me if it reaches a point where it's no longer deniable things are bad, that's when something will change. However, at that point, the damage will have been done. For example, take this story out of Florida:

Crisp said she and her friends had been careful with social distancing and had stayed indoors for months “doing everything the right way.”

“And then the first night we go out, Murphy’s Law, I guess,” Crisp said. “The only thing we have in common is that one night at that one bar.”

Crisp said she regrets going out to celebrate after months of quarantining.

“I think we were careless and we went out into a public place when we should not have. And we were not wearing masks. I think we had a whole 'Out of sight, out of mind' mentality. The state opens back up and said everybody was fine, so we took advantage of that,” Crisp said.

One night out, 15 people test positive.

[Grifman]

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

Yes, this makes total sense. Yes, of course, China wants to kill thousands of its citizens and crash their economy. Sure that makes total sense. Let’s screw ourselves to get Trump.

And of course the Democratic leadership conspires with China to release a virus that targets the elderly that might take out two of their leading presidential candidates and other party leadership such as House Speaker Pelosi. Not to mention that Democrats have older parents and other vulnerable relatives. But they don’t care about them, do they? Of course they’d risk their families to get Trump. And of course this is going to kill hundreds of thousands around the world too. You are literally accusing the Democratic leadership of mass murder. Do you realize how stupid you have to be to believe this? You are why the Republican Party is an Idiocracy.

[El Guapo]

Is it really Murphy's Law if you haven't been doing dangerous things, then the one time that you do something dangerous, you get hurt? I feel like that's just basic cause and effect.

I haven't been attacked by a tiger for *years*. Then the one time I climb into the tiger den at the zoo, I get attacked by a tiger. What rotten luck, eh?

[Smoove_B]

Once again, The Onion nails it:

DALLAS—Saying the city remained on track for progressing into the final stage, Mayor Eric Johnson told Dallas residents Friday that they would soon officially be entering Phase 4 of pretending the coronavirus was over. “Thanks to the efforts of municipal employees, I’m happy to say we’ve reached the final phases of completely deluding ourselves into thinking that this pandemic has somehow stopped spreading and that we’re safe,” said Johnson in a press conference, in which he applauded the city for bringing them to this stage by successfully disregarding the virus in previous phases.

[Paingod]

So I think the big question is this - if the situation gets bad again in states that have re-opened - will they shut down again? Especially the large number of red states that largely avoided problems early on, but now are trending up?

Governor Mills in Maine (not a large red state) was pretty clear in her address that our phases of reopening depended entirely on how well the state kept tracking on infections. She was very clear that she was willing to step things back if it went to shit.

So far we're still on a very slow, steady trend. Currently sitting at 2,810 confirmed cases, 7th best in the nation. No idea how we're keeping it low, though, with all the chucklheads I see in rural areas deciding things are fine. I can only imagine our more densely populated areas are still taking this seriously.

[Smoove_B]

As a counterpoint, NJ's governor has been stating since March that data is driving decisions and that in order to open everything back up numerous infrastructure elements would need to be in place - namely contact tracing. Well, we're solidly in Stage 2 and yesterday he said we're weeks away from Stage 3 but I can tell you the contact tracing element is vaporware. Larger metro areas are sort of able to do it, but at the expense of everything else. Smaller and more rural communities? Nope. My impression is that because levels of virus are so low now in our state, there's a belief that having contact tracing staffing and capability at disease outbreak levels just isn't necessary. Instead, the tracing program will "catch up" over the next few months as more people are trained and added. We weren't able to deal with cases at the height of our problems and despite 90 days passing we're still not there. So again, while everything might look "normal", I'm telling you from behind the curtain that the proactive preventative infrastructure still isn't in place. Hospitals and medical staff might be ready to address another round of this, but the idea that we're putting them in the direct line of fire again is insane.

[malchior]

Yeah that isn't a surprise. Murphy is so weak he couldn't get his widely popular initiative (medical marijuana) that he explicitly ran on through Democratically controlled bodies. He is a dead bill in human form. He is only surviving by basically kowtowing to all the special business interests. And I suspect many states have similar situations because the polarization is everywhere where there is a blue and the red states are following Trump's lead. We're fuct.

[Paingod]

We're fuct.

Laws, yes. M.O.O.N. That spells fucked.

[Isgrimnur]

One night out, 15 people test positive.

That's incredible. Who the hell has 15 friends?

[Kraken]

One night out, 15 people test positive.

That's incredible. Who the hell has 15 friends?

I'm dividing the world into Republican bars and Democratic bars.

Most of the restaurants in my town are Republican bars: Their outdoor tables are the requisite 10' apart, but chairs aren't (the law is silent on that point). Patrons get up from their tables and mingle, sans masks. They don't take reservations, so small crowds form, waiting for tables. You can spot a Republican bar by its knots of young men standing around and drinking Bud from bottles. Needless to say, I am not going to any of these places.

Democratic bars, OTOH, seat by reservation only, and impose a 90-minute time limit. The chairs are at least 10' apart and patrons are expected to remain seated. Anyone who does get up wears a mask. You can spot a Democrat bar by seated patrons drinking craft beer pints. I would like to go to one of these places, but there aren't any nearby. I'm thinking about making a reservation at a brewpub in Cambridge, where there are no Republicans.

Republicans spread disease. They're the ones with 15 "friends" (really just contacts).

[LordMortis]

Red States won't. They're too invested in the narrative that closures are behind us.

On a micro scale, I think the loyalist/federalist factions don't see it is a problem unless it's a problem that happens to them. Herd immunity or healthy lifestyle or young or good diet or sun or reports are overstated... The exceptions would be Florida and Arizona, I'd think who have a disproportionately large aging vulnerable population. The aging see how the numbers impact the aging. I also wouldn't bet money against the California having a meeting of Red and Blue in the belief that virile will beat down viral. For their sake, I hope they're largely correct. I remember in March, when the scuttlebut was that hot *humid* environments would kill off the virus. Humidity is not something California is known for, though I must confess that hasn't been in the news since summer has come around.

I'm not really sure what to make of what's happening in the red states that are experiencing a significant increase in cases

Time it takes to get to less dense, less traveled populations and then it takes seed? Where's that life thought project?

Governor Mills in Maine (not a large red state) was pretty clear in her address that our phases of reopening depended entirely on how well the state kept tracking on infections. She was very clear that she was willing to step things back if it went to shit.

Our governor is pretty clear on that too. She gets death threats and people driving around with giant magnetic plaques on their cards of "Recall Whitmer" and very good armed people marching on the capitol with effigies in nooses.


On a "positive?" note on the drive into my ghost office this morning, there was a PSA asking you to answer the phone because it may be the Health department or a hospital letting you know you've been in contact with someone being treated for the 'Rona.

[Smoove_B]

Results were announced Tuesday and researchers said they would publish them soon. The study is a large, strict test that randomly assigned 2,104 patients to get the drug and compared them with 4,321 patients getting only usual care.

Red flag. Science Twitter is rightfully pointing out that "results by press release" needs to stop. Until the study can actually be reviewed by the scientific community, the potential for misinterpretation and misunderstanding is too great.

[malchior]

Results were announced Tuesday and researchers said they would publish them soon. The study is a large, strict test that randomly assigned 2,104 patients to get the drug and compared them with 4,321 patients getting only usual care.

Red flag. Science Twitter is rightfully pointing out that "results by press release" needs to stop. Until the study can actually be reviewed by the scientific community, the potential for misinterpretation and misunderstanding is too great.

Hey wait. There are research grants and money to be made here. That's way more important!

[YellowKing]

I went to the post office today. Wore a mask. Almost everyone else in there was wearing a mask. Clearly marked 6 foot spacers in the line which everyone followed. Dividers between customers and workers. It was easy-peasy, and I felt perfectly safe.

I don't get the attitude. If that's the only "inconvenience" to keep things safe and functional for a few months, sign me up.

[Octavious]

As I mentioned earlier they made us go back into the office despite the order that if you can work from home you should. I'm a PM I can do everything from home forever and it wouldn't matter one bit. Anyway.... I'd say half the office is not wearing masks at all including the owner. There's like zero guidelines and about all they have done is put out masks. It's a huge office and there's very few people here so staying distanced isn't hard, but come on try a little...

[LawBeefaroni]

As I mentioned earlier they made us go back into the office despite the order that if you can work from home you should. I'm a PM I can do everything from home forever and it wouldn't matter one bit. Anyway.... I'd say half the office is not wearing masks at all including the owner. There's like zero guidelines and about all they have done is put out masks. It's a huge office and there's very few people here so staying distanced isn't hard, but come on try a little...

They moved the COVID clinic to the 1st floor of our office building. Every time the AC kicks on I get a little sqirmy. It's been checked out, of course, and we're safe but it's still...why do I have to come in again?

[Octavious]

You win.

[LordMortis]

They moved the COVID clinic to the 1st floor of our office building. Every time the AC kicks on I get a little sqirmy. It's been checked out, of course, and we're safe but it's still...why do I have to come in again?

NOPE

[LawBeefaroni]

Note: the Clinic is triage for those exhibiting symptoms. They go there to get checked out and routed to testing or the ER. It's not where they treat the seriously ill patients (that's in the hospital).

But yeah, still squirmy.

[LordMortis]

And I repeat NOPE.

I did sit outside in the same yard as my parents with no masks on Saturday. That was a first. I figured it was OK to be a loud talker outside and do that because the neighbor on the one side has been doing it for I don't know how long, since well before the Governor said gave her seal of approval on such actions.

[Smoove_B]

Meanwhile in L.A., underground dance parties:

At midnight on Friday, a security guard opened a thick steel door into a South L.A. warehouse. Unfamiliar sounds of late poured out from underneath: music, laughing and dancing. “Inside, inside,” the guard commanded, and slammed it shut behind a small line of wary but elated partygoers in paisley-print facemasks. A pink neon light beckoned them to a pair of masked ushers, who checked tickets for what was likely L.A.’s first underground club night since the coronavirus lockdowns began.

...

For public health professionals, even those who are sympathetic to mass gatherings like the recent protests against police brutality, congregating at a party indoors is a head-spinning gamble.

“Frankly, I think these are a terrible idea,” said Dr. Tara C. Smith, an epidemiologist and professor at Kent State University’s College of Public Health, who has written and spoken widely on COVID-19 and its transmission risks. “I understand that everyone wants to get back to normal, but being in a small enclosed area in close contact with many others is one of the highest-risk activities one can do.”

[Grifman]

My 93 year old mom is excited. She's been cooped up for months and this past weekend I told her i was going to take her on a picnic and road trip. We are going to go up to the NC mountains, drive up the Blue Ridge Parkway and just cruise the day. She is so excited about getting out of the house, and I am too, given that I have stayed cooped up other than visiting her as I am her only physical human contact. It's going to be fun!

[LordMortis]

My 93 year old mom is excited. She's been cooped up for months and this past weekend I told her i was going to take her on a picnic and road trip. We are going to go up to the NC mountains, drive up the Blue Ridge Parkway and just cruise the day. She is so excited about getting out of the house, and I am too, given that I have stayed cooped up other than visiting her as I am her only physical human contact. It's going to be fun!

I've seen my parent three or four times. Through glass with masks for the moments time glass was not feasible. This weekend was the first we occupied space no barrier other than social distance. it was... nice...

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, I hung out with my parents for a few hours on Saturday in their driveway, sitting in the shade. Everything was BYO and we're next door neighbors now so there's no bathroom issue. We speak daily by phone but I am guessing with better weather the driveway thing might become a realistic weekly option as well.

[hitbyambulance]

I said it last month or maybe even in April (I can't remember anymore). If there's another round of restrictions, it's not going to go well in any state. I'm not really sure what to make of what's happening in the red states that are experiencing a significant increase in cases and how they're going to ultimately react. My gut is telling me if it reaches a point where it's no longer deniable things are bad, that's when something will change. However, at that point, the damage will have been done. For example, take this story out of Florida:

Crisp said she and her friends had been careful with social distancing and had stayed indoors for months “doing everything the right way.”

“And then the first night we go out, Murphy’s Law, I guess,” Crisp said. “The only thing we have in common is that one night at that one bar.”

Crisp said she regrets going out to celebrate after months of quarantining.

“I think we were careless and we went out into a public place when we should not have. And we were not wearing masks. I think we had a whole 'Out of sight, out of mind' mentality. The state opens back up and said everybody was fine, so we took advantage of that,” Crisp said.

One night out, 15 people test positive.

there's gonna be a whole lot of regretting in the next year and a half

[ImLawBoy]

We do twice a week Facetime/Duo calls with the grandparents in lieu of in-person visits. I'm waiting for them to ask about in-person visits now that the state's reopening, but as the state is reopening, they're all going out and doing more - getting haircuts, shopping, having other siblings/grandkids over, etc. We're playing it extra safe with my oldest son's medical issues, so the opening of the state means we're less likely to permit in-person visits.

That said, I'm not sure I realized quite how hard this was on the kids. The twins completed their "100 Days of Practice" challenge for their music lessons (they had to practice something like 100 out of 125 days). Normally they'd give out the awards for this at a recital, but that's virtual these days. Instead, they set up a drive by celebration where you were given a time window to drive by their school, encouraged to decorate your cars, and the masked instructors would hand trophies to the kids through the windows. It had been nearly 3 months since the twins had been any further than walking distance from the house, and they were laughing giddily as I left the garage and drove down the alley with them - they were just excited to go anywhere, even if they weren't getting out of the car.

[Octavious]

We do twice a week Facetime/Duo calls with the grandparents in lieu of in-person visits. I'm waiting for them to ask about in-person visits now that the state's reopening, but as the state is reopening, they're all going out and doing more - getting haircuts, shopping, having other siblings/grandkids over, etc. We're playing it extra safe with my oldest son's medical issues, so the opening of the state means we're less likely to permit in-person visits.

That said, I'm not sure I realized quite how hard this was on the kids. The twins completed their "100 Days of Practice" challenge for their music lessons (they had to practice something like 100 out of 125 days). Normally they'd give out the awards for this at a recital, but that's virtual these days. Instead, they set up a drive by celebration where you were given a time window to drive by their school, encouraged to decorate your cars, and the masked instructors would hand trophies to the kids through the windows. It had been nearly 3 months since the twins had been any further than walking distance from the house, and they were laughing giddily as I left the garage and drove down the alley with them - they were just excited to go anywhere, even if they weren't getting out of the car.

Ya my daughter has been a trooper during all of this, but it's been pretty hard. She also pretty much hasn't left the house at all for 3 months. For her 8th grade graduation they had all the kids setup an appointment to show up and be recorded. Her friend lives on the block where the school is and came over. You could see how exciting it was to see her friends in person and it just sucks. She got top of her class which is amazing, but it feels a bit hollow when we couldn't have everyone together to celebrate it. At least we have the video of the graduation that we can look at years later.

[LawBeefaroni]

Kiddo has "outdoor karate" today. First time she'll be with other kids anywhere beyond the alley in 3 months.

They'll still be like 10 feet apart in a park just doing katas, no contact. But it's a huge thing and that is kind of sad that it is.



Worried about the younger kid, this is kind of a critical social development period and he's essentially turned into a feral madman. Scheduled to go back to school in a month.

[Smoove_B]

It's almost like...maybe sometimes the government has an obligation to act in the best interest of the citizenry and consider enacting restrictions to limit things:

"We are beginning to see for the month of June an increase in the number of people testing positive who are in the age group the 20s, meaning between the age of 20 and 29," Abbott told KRGV. "People of that age group, they're not following these appropriate, best health safety practices."

"They are not wearing face masks, they're not sanitizing their hands, they're not maintaining social distancing," he added. "And as a result, they are contracting COVID-19 at a record pace in the state of Texas."

Texas has seen a significant increase in infections as the state continues to reopen. Over 14,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported over the past week, with 2,504 cases, the largest single-day increase, being recorded on Wednesday.

[Isgrimnur]

[LordMortis]

Ya my daughter has been a trooper during all of this, but it's been pretty hard. She also pretty much hasn't left the house at all for 3 months. For her 8th grade graduation they had all the kids setup an appointment to show up and be recorded. Her friend lives on the block where the school is and came over. You could see how exciting it was to see her friends in person and it just sucks. She got top of her class which is amazing, but it feels a bit hollow when we couldn't have everyone together to celebrate it. At least we have the video of the graduation that we can look at years later.

I dunno anything about 8th grad graduation but my memory is the summer going into 9th grade was the beginning of coming in to our own. The begging of the Rite of passage. Of independence (while still living under your parent's roof) To me that would be harder than any other time.

[Smoove_B]

Plus all this is coming as (from what I understand) restaurants are now permitted (today?) to open at 75% capacity and next week amusement parks can open at 50%. It feels like the last week of June he's going to say, "Who could of predicted this?" as your cases and deaths skyrocket.

[ImLawBoy]

Kiddo has "outdoor karate" today. First time she'll be with other kids anywhere beyond the alley in 3 months.

They'll still be like 10 feet apart in a park just doing katas, no contact. But it's a huge thing and that is kind of sad that it is.



Worried about the younger kid, this is kind of a critical social development period and he's essentially turned into a feral madman. Scheduled to go back to school in a month.

If the twins have an advantage, it's that they have a same age playmate built in. Of course, they fight all the time, so . . . .

[LordMortis]

It's almost like...maybe sometimes the government has an obligation to act in the best interest of the citizenry and consider enacting restrictions to limit things:

"We are beginning to see for the month of June an increase in the number of people testing positive who are in the age group the 20s, meaning between the age of 20 and 29," Abbott told KRGV. "People of that age group, they're not following these appropriate, best health safety practices."

"They are not wearing face masks, they're not sanitizing their hands, they're not maintaining social distancing," he added. "And as a result, they are contracting COVID-19 at a record pace in the state of Texas."

Texas has seen a significant increase in infections as the state continues to reopen. Over 14,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported over the past week, with 2,504 cases, the largest single-day increase, being recorded on Wednesday.

I can't prove it, but I would contend Michigan resisted lockdown until two things happened. 1) Ohio locked down 2) in reaction Whitmer published a guideline and pleaded for people to stay at home and exercise caution, asking people not to gather and shut down schools whose response from the youth of SE Michigan was to gather en mass in tight quarters in bar districts in Detroit by the 10s of thousands to celebrate.

https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/article ... s_warnings

https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/2 ... te-orders/

[Smoove_B]

Yes - similar to how NJ/NY tried to coordinate stuff. The difference is that NY has a much stronger public health infrastructure than NJ. In other news, HELLO, FLORIDA:

Miami, among Florida's most populous cities, won't move into the next phase of reopening because of concern over rising COVID-19 cases, Mayor Francis Suarez announced at a Monday news conference.

Although the majority of the state is in Phase 2 of reopening, rising new coronavirus cases may put a damper on residents' new freedom.

...

When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's stay-at-home order expired May 4, there were roughly 680 cases being diagnosed each day in the state. As of June 14, Florida's seven-day rolling average for new COVID-19 infections, which accounts for fluctuations in the number of cases, was 1,661 per day. On Tuesday, Florida reported a record-high one-day increase of 2,783.

[LordMortis]

Also, I can't prove it, but I would contend Ohio shut down because the governor asked pro and college sports to stop allowing fan attendance and the owner of the Blue Jackets basically, said, that's question? then the answer is "no."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/blu ... mendation/

So in a weird way I can thank John P. McConnell for being such a complete money grubbing jackass that he was capable of forcing the lighting a beacon of Gondor that would get us to react much quicker than we normally would have.

[Formix]

My 93 year old mom is excited. She's been cooped up for months and this past weekend I told her i was going to take her on a picnic and road trip. We are going to go up to the NC mountains, drive up the Blue Ridge Parkway and just cruise the day. She is so excited about getting out of the house, and I am too, given that I have stayed cooped up other than visiting her as I am her only physical human contact. It's going to be fun!

Just be prepared. If it's pretty, lots of folks have been visiting the BRP. Black Balsam last weekend was packed. Beautiful drive though!

[Unagi]

My 93 year old mom is excited. She's been cooped up for months and this past weekend I told her i was going to take her on a picnic and road trip. We are going to go up to the NC mountains, drive up the Blue Ridge Parkway and just cruise the day. She is so excited about getting out of the house, and I am too, given that I have stayed cooped up other than visiting her as I am her only physical human contact. It's going to be fun!

That's a great idea.

[Grifman]

My 93 year old mom is excited. She's been cooped up for months and this past weekend I told her i was going to take her on a picnic and road trip. We are going to go up to the NC mountains, drive up the Blue Ridge Parkway and just cruise the day. She is so excited about getting out of the house, and I am too, given that I have stayed cooped up other than visiting her as I am her only physical human contact. It's going to be fun!

I've seen my parent three or four times. Through glass with masks for the moments time glass was not feasible. This weekend was the first we occupied space no barrier other than social distance. it was... nice...

My mom still lives at home alone in the house I grew up and is able to take care of herself. I go over, get some take out, we eat, I help her with any financial stuff, and get groceries as necessary. We try to wear masks as much as we can except for eating together. We have also started zooming with the rest of the family, and she has really enjoyed that.

[Grifman]

My 93 year old mom is excited. She's been cooped up for months and this past weekend I told her i was going to take her on a picnic and road trip. We are going to go up to the NC mountains, drive up the Blue Ridge Parkway and just cruise the day. She is so excited about getting out of the house, and I am too, given that I have stayed cooped up other than visiting her as I am her only physical human contact. It's going to be fun!

Just be prepared. If it's pretty, lots of folks have been visiting the BRP. Black Balsam last weekend was packed. Beautiful drive though!

We should be ok. We'll drive around, get out and look around at some of the overlooks - she can't walk far, and then find a picnic table, shouldn't be too hard or unsafe. She hasn't seen the Lin Cove Viaduct around Grandfather Mountain so I plan to take to see that.