Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

[Alefroth]

The right liked to crow about how the polls got it wrong, maybe that's what you're remembering.

[El Guapo]

Looking at the aggregated replies to Kurth's post, the overall results indicate: BAM!

Fair enough. I suppose I should have placed my doubt in the media and its CW instead. I just seem to remember lots of talking heads and pundits referencing polls and numbers that made a Trump victory look like a near impossibility. Maybe I'm misremembering, or maybe they were mischaracterizing the numbers at the time.

There were. It's just that they were caught up in this general assumption that there's NO WAY that Trump could win, such that they ignored the polls showing him within reach. Doesn't help that most people don't understand how low probabilities work - that people tend to translate low probabilities into "definitely won't happen."

[malchior]

Don't worry the President's FB page just put up an anti-Antifa message that used an odd symbol. Inverted red triangle. It very much correlates to badges used by the Nazis for political prisoners in concentration camps. We have a lot of work ahead of us once Trump is gone.

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 7780852736

https://twitter.com/mikeydoubled/status ... 60/photo/1

[LordMortis]

Don't worry the President's FB page just put up an anti-Antifa message that used an odd symbol. Inverted red triangle. It very much correlates to badges used by the Nazis for political prisoners in concentration camps. We have a lot of work ahead of us once Trump is gone.

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 7780852736

https://twitter.com/mikeydoubled/status ... 60/photo/1

Before I get a specific kind of angry, is team trump his FB page or a page of people who work for/with him to promote him? Or is independent people promoting him? Any sane person knows Trump is supported by open and closet Nazis and that he doesn't reject them and makes dog whistles and is a bigot and gaslights like nobodies business. But there are a lot of people who do shit in his name that he's isn't part of. He's kinda like a conductor for all of these independent Nazi cells, terrorist or otherwise.

At least I'm out of Facebook for now.

Maybe they're just pro-choice? (which is what came up first when I googled red triangle. Wiki did dis ambiguate though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Trian ... _planning)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_conc ... _triangles

Red triangle – political prisoners: social democrats, socialists, communists and anarchists; rescuers of Jews; trade unionists; and Freemasons.

What a weird thing to take as you symbol. A badge you put on others to recognize why you hate them?

[malchior]

Before I get a specific kind of angry, is team trump his FB page or a page of people who work for/with him to promote him? Or is independent people promoting him? Any sane person knows Trump is supported by open and closet Nazis and that he doesn't reject them and makes dog whistles and is a bigot and gaslights like nobodies business. But there are a lot of people who do shit in his name that he's isn't part of. He's kinda like a conductor for all of these independent Nazi cells, terrorist or otherwise.

As the More Info says

The official Facebook page for the Trump Campaign. Together, we will KEEP AMERICA GREAT! �

At least I'm out of Facebook for now.

Maybe they're just pro-choice? (which is what came up first when I googled red triangle. Wiki did dis ambiguate though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Trian ... _planning)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_conc ... _triangles

I could see the confusion - but there is almost no chance that Trump is suddenly pro-choice...well...again.

Red triangle – political prisoners: social democrats, socialists, communists and anarchists; rescuers of Jews; trade unionists; and Freemasons.

What a weird thing to take as you symbol. A badge you put on others to recognize why you hate them?

This is what autocracies do. They create visible enemies for the people. Protecting them from those enemies is how they build their power.

[malchior]

This is a dumb story line for a cliffhanger at the end of Season 4 of End of Democracy. It is a repeat of the 'didn't want to be elected' story line. My suspension of disbelief is in tatters. How do the viewers accept that everyone just ignores that the man isn't a mad genius but a broken, shit stain that the system enables?

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/statu ... 9509013508

[Skinypupy]

I love Biden's new ad, and is what I want to see more of. The message can't only be "I'm not Trump", it has to be about how we can move forward. This is great.

[LordMortis]

I love Biden's new ad, and is what I want to see more of. The message can't only be "I'm not Trump", it has to be about how we can move forward. This is great.

I'm LordMortis, and I approve this message. It's about time and I'm happy to see it. (though I had not quams with laying low when you had no message or action to rally behind as we fall apart)

[Max Peck]

That touchy-feely segment near the end is going to trigger a few people.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://twitter.com/CalNBC/status/1273416410283290625


People believe this astroturf bullshit?

[malchior]

It is part of the fantasy. Wholesome white people singing a totally normal song. That is 'Keeping America Great'!

[Scoop20906]

https://twitter.com/CalNBC/status/1273416410283290625


People believe this astroturf bullshit?

That looks incredibly produced. Obviously not volunteers but a paid group.

[YellowKing]

It amazes me that anybody could want 4 more years of this shit show. Seriously, I want to know what awesome things Trump's done that they want four more years of.

[Zaxxon]

It amazes me that anybody could want 4 more years of this shit show. Seriously, I want to know what awesome things Trump's done that they want four more years of.

Stigginit.

[Holman]

That looks incredibly produced. Obviously not volunteers but a paid group.

Someone commented on Twitter that this gang was doing the same thing for Santorum in the run-up to 2016. They might be believers, but they're also an act.

[Kraken]

It amazes me that anybody could want 4 more years of this shit show. Seriously, I want to know what awesome things Trump's done that they want four more years of.

NBC News story included this: ""We want to show our support," Robin Stites, who's been camped out since Monday, told The Oklahoman newspaper. "We feel like President Trump and his family have dedicated their lives to helping our country. Sacrificing a week of our lives is nothing for what Trump has done for us.""

Name three things.

This will be a super-spreader event, and trump is likely to hold more rallies just like it before the disease statistics become obvious. Methinks a "second wave" is integral to his reelection strategy.

[Isgrimnur]

Name three things.

I want to link to the Sports Night pilot scene here, but given the hand gestures she makes when Felicity Huffman says it, I don't think it has aged well.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/CalNBC/status/1273416410283290625


People believe this astroturf bullshit?

That looks incredibly produced. Obviously not volunteers but a paid group.

They did a (better) song for Rick Santorum in 2012:

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/12 ... 2436414466

[stessier]

I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.

[Scoop20906]

I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.

Awesome stess!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Holman]

I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.

Great job!

My wife is a Dem committeeperson, so she spends hours at the polls on election day. I bring the poll workers lunch.

The last time I voted in person (I went by-mail for this year's primary), my poll worker was Hugo- and Nebula-winner Michael Swanwick.

[Skinypupy]

It amazes me that anybody could want 4 more years of this shit show. Seriously, I want to know what awesome things Trump's done that they want four more years of.

Name three things.

I've talked to lots of Trumpers who are fully convinced that Obama had "destroyed" the economy. That the pre-COVID low unemployment and stock market gains were 100% a product of Trump's policies, and had absolutely nothing to do with the previous 8 year trend.

When you then throw in Justice Kegbro and the hundreds of other wildly unqualified sycophant judges, the tax scam - er, cut, the fact they think they no longer have to hide their racism/xenophobia/jingoism, and the overall level of STIGGINIT, I can absolutely see how they would consider Trump to be wildly successful.

All of those data points completely fall apart with even minor scrutiny, of course, but since when have facts mattered to MAGAs?

[Holman]

Don't forget that the military was completely gutted under Obama. "Sir," the big tough generals have told Trump, "We didn't even have ammunition!"

[LordMortis]

It amazes me that anybody could want 4 more years of this shit show. Seriously, I want to know what awesome things Trump's done that they want four more years of.

Name three things.

I've talked to lots of Trumpers who are fully convinced that Obama had "destroyed" the economy. That the pre-COVID low unemployment and stock market gains were 100% a product of Trump's policies, and had absolutely nothing to do with the previous 8 year trend.

When you then throw in Justice Kegbro and the hundreds of other wildly unqualified sycophant judges, the tax scam - er, cut, the fact they think they no longer have to hide their racism/xenophobia/jingoism, and the overall level of STIGGINIT, I can absolutely see how they would consider Trump to be wildly successful.

All of those data points completely fall apart with even minor scrutiny, of course, but since when have facts mattered to MAGAs?

If I could speak for what I've heard, it'd be that stopped Obamacare from getting even worse, saved our 401k, and runs government like a business. And if the democrats didn't stop him, he'd also keep high paying jobs in the US and out of illegal immigrants hands concurrent with keeping them from raiding social security and medicare as well as allowing them to go to college for free. (That talk is dying a bit since George Floyd and with COVID response)

[Defiant]

It amazes me that anybody could want 4 more years of this shit show. Seriously, I want to know what awesome things Trump's done that they want four more years of.

I'm under the impression that the "awesome" thing he's done that they want four more years of is liberal tears.

[Carpet_pissr]

I think it's really, really difficult if not impossible to understand "the other side" at this point in our little representative democracy experiment.

I myself am guilty of constantly asking myself how people can support Trump, every time a new norm-busting, rule of law breaking event happens that seems to strain our country a little more each time. I'm literally unable to comprehend where one would have to be in order to keep buying into his daily, worsening bullshit and downright treasonous behavior. But I have some ideas, living where I do, and growing up where I did.

1. The people who will absolutely 100% vote for Trump again might not tell pollsters or anyone else who is not "on their team" that they are voting for Trump. "Preference falsification" - it's a thing. Many totally support his policy, methods and even style, at the same time despising him. "Yes, he's an evil chaos monster, and breaking MUCH more than we expected, but he's OUR evil chaos monster"

2. Since the two American teams have pretty much been divided between "Fox News watchers" and "Other" in terms of how they consume political news, after talking to MANY (I hate anecdotal, but I don't have any data here) Fox news watchers (not necessarily rabid right wing hardliners), they will not defend Trump. In fact, I have had many say "I can't stand the man" or something similar. Instead though, they will point to BIDEN (like Hillary) and say "but ANYbody is better than HIM (her)!". Fox has done such a spectacular (seriously) job of propaganda for their side, that any non-Republican entity is basically the Devil. And they have the "proof" to back up how corrupt Biden is. I mean, the Ukraine thing FFS! We can't have that kind of rampant corruption in our highest office!

3. Finish with the strongest theory: they are way, way too far in to back out now. Socially. Politically, emotionally, whatever. I think it's the same reason that Repubs are being so cowardly in response, or lack of response, to Trump's overtly anti-American behavior. They bought the ticket, boarded the train, and the train is now (unfortunately for them) going 347 mph. No possible way for them to exit safely, here. Thus the incredulous doubling down that baffles many non-Trump supporters. It's just too late, and too far down the crazy track to say "ok, that's it. I made YUGE mistake. This guy is so much worse than what I expected, I'm out!" That would basically be political suicide, and they would be mocked mercilessly. And it would be REALLY hard!

Related to 3. If you haven't read this article in The Atlantic, it's well worth the time to read (warning - it is VERY long, but they nicely have an audio version embedded in the text!). It deals specifically with how people (specifically people in power) go from "America-loving patriot" to semi-autocrat over the course of years or even months.

"History Will Judge the Complicit" - Why have Republican leaders abandoned their principles in support of an immoral and dangerous president?
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... rs/612250/

[Z-Corn]

I think it's really, really difficult if not impossible to understand "the other side" at this point in our little representative democracy experiment.

This was a great post and I want to say it's nice to see you posting again.

[Holman]

I think it's really, really difficult if not impossible to understand "the other side" at this point in our little representative democracy experiment.
[...]

As weird as it seems to political junkies like us, many voters actually are malleable in their opinions. There actually are people out there who voted for Clinton in 1996 and then for Bush once or twice and then for Obama once or twice and then for Trump. A lot of voters respond entirely to their current situation rather than to any long-term ideological commitment or political plan.

The "two camps" model makes narrative sense (especially since most of us here are committed to one of the camps), but one thing to remember is that demographics change quickly enough that a four-year span actually matters. Old people vote in large numbers, but they also die in large numbers. They are replaced by the young, and it's starting to look like activism and political participation are in fashion more than they have been.

Finally, Trump might be reaping the whirlwind. He promised yuge results and failed to deliver, and voters who went with him in 2016 might feel that their loyalty was to the promise, not the man. The more he's perceived as a failure, the less his voters will feel invested in him. This makes it easy to jump ship.

[Jaymann]

The evaluation of tRump as a one-term failed Presidency will be cold comfort as we try to pick up the sheds of democracy and the rule of law, but it will feel good.

[Unagi]

It deals specifically with how people (specifically people in power) go from "America-loving patriot" to semi-autocrat over the course of years or even months.

"History Will Judge the Complicit" - Why have Republican leaders abandoned their principles in support of an immoral and dangerous president?
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... rs/612250/

this here

[Unagi]

The evaluation of tRump as a one-term failed Presidency will be cold comfort as we try to pick up the sheds of democracy and the rule of law, but it will feel good.

It is very hard for America to conclude that 30-40% of the population still "supports" the rebel flag and exactly what it meant.

It's weird, but we need to get back to a point where we as a nation tell "those" that they are 100% wrong.

100 %
WRONG

there is no "good people on both sides" shit here... Those that 'disagree' need to shut the fuck up (again, and there will always be those that feel this way, but fuck them) and those that see the danger in Trump need to drop support entirely.

[Kraken]

I think it's really, really difficult if not impossible to understand "the other side" at this point in our little representative democracy experiment.

This was a great post and I want to say it's nice to see you posting again.

+1. I especially like the train analogy. The only remedy is to derail that sucker.

It is very hard for America to conclude that 30-40% of the population still "supports" the rebel flag and exactly what it meant.

It's weird, but we need to get back to a point where we as a nation tell "those" that they are 100% wrong.

100 %
WRONG

there is no "good people on both sides" shit here... Those that 'disagree' need to shut the fuck up (again, and there will always be those that feel this way, but fuck them) and those that see the danger in Trump need to drop support entirely.

The guy is courting Nazis. Actual fucking neo-Nazis. If the old people find out about that -- and I realize they mostly won't, not in their media bubble -- they will not be at all cool with it.

I need to see that "What if we're the baddies" clip again.

[malchior]

The evaluation of tRump as a one-term failed Presidency will be cold comfort as we try to pick up the sheds of democracy and the rule of law, but it will feel good.

I look forward to the end of incompetent, dysfunctional government trying to break the nation to establish a fascist state. We'll finally return to the safety of a dysfunctional vetocracy that can't do anything besides bail out the extremely wealthy. What a relief!

[Unagi]

I look forward to the end of incompetent, dysfunctional government trying to break the nation to establish a fascist state.


I'm ok with 1 out of 3.

We'll finally return to the safety of a dysfunctional vetocracy that can't do anything besides bail out the extremely wealthy. What a relief!

lol Oh, wait, OK - so are you!

+1

[Holman]

News from the KY primary:

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/12 ... 46469?s=20

Kentucky cutting number of polling places for Tuesday’s primary from 3700 to 200

There will be one polling place for 616,000 registered voters in Louisville’s Jefferson County, where half state’s black voters live

This is going to be a disaster

They're going to do this for the general election too, aren't they?

How does a state get away with this? Is there anything stopping a GOP state government from eliminating all polling places in Dem-majority areas?

[Jaymann]

Fucking Moscow Mitch. This is worse than poll tax and voter ID combined.

[Kraken]

The morning after I read that Atlantic story about why people who should know better collude with fascists, this item was in the local news:

Mayor Martin J. Walsh warned the Boston police commissioner against meeting with the US attorney general, and was surprised to learn that the meeting — which set off a firestorm of criticism — had taken place as the mayor was holding a press conference at City Hall on Thursday, city officials said.

Walsh was wrapping up the news conference, answering questions about police overtime and a proposal to make Juneteenth a citywide holiday, at about the same time a Department of Justice spokeswoman tweeted a picture of Boston Police Commissioner William G. Gross and US Attorney General William Barr standing shoulder-to-shoulder.
...
Walsh told WBZ-TV Friday that he would not have met with Barr because “he has a general lack of respect for people and their rights, and they’re a danger to our country.”
...
A day after the Barr meeting, the impetus remained unclear. Justice Department officials in Washington did not answer questions about why the country’s top law enforcement official wanted to meet with Gross in the first place. But the blowback was both swift and ferocious.

City Councilor Julia Mejia said the meeting “took everyone by surprise” and represented a lack of coordination and communication by both federal and local authorities. She said she found Barr’s presence in Boston alarming, and thought the meeting between Gross and Barr should not have happened the way that it did.

Another reaction story is here. And this is the photo that Barr came for:

Spoiler:

Trumpsters in general are not welcome in Boston, and Barr is one of the Big Three enemies of the people (with trump and McConnell).

[LordMortis]

Barr is one of the Big Three enemies of the people (with trump and McConnell).

Barring the "freedom caucus" it sure does seem like that is the unholy trinity.

[Carpet_pissr]

I think it's really, really difficult if not impossible to understand "the other side" at this point in our little representative democracy experiment.

This was a great post and I want to say it's nice to see you posting again.

Thanks. Glad to be back. Some mid life re-balancing was in order, and kind of threw out the baby with the bath water in the process. For clarity, OO is the baby in this analogy.

[Carpet_pissr]

Barr is one of the Big Three enemies of the people (with trump and McConnell).

Barring the "freedom caucus" it sure does seem like that is the unholy trinity.

I know 3 is cleaner than 4, but room should be made for Matt Gaetz also.