Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[RunningMn9]

nursing home nightmare stuff

I believe it. The nursing home my MIL is on lost more than 20% of their residents.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah at this point I'm not going to just keep watching. I plan to go to a town hall sometime and ask him questions to his face about this. That this isn't a huge scandal is ridiculous. This state is a fucking travesty.

Until they blow up home rule, its never going to change. It needs to end for all public services and all school districts; It's not happening in our lifetimes.

EDIT: I'm saying this as someone following closely the story in Andover. Locals are out for blood (rightfully so) but the county health agency is just shrugging their shoulders (also, rightfully so) saying it's all on the state. Locals and county officials have no oversight by design. You can ask questions locally but they're going to defer to the state as they have regulatory control.

[malchior]

Yeah - fair enough. I still have a strong urge to get the hell out of here. I'm getting convinced my town has a corrupt water utility for instance which is super fun.

Edit: Oh I meant whenever Murphy has a town hall I mean to ask him a direct question about it. He does one every once awhile in the New Brunswick area.

[Paingod]

It is insane what they believe *in their bones*. It's complete fantasy land nonsense. It really shows how dangerous groupthink can be and how it can be weaponized. And I agree it can't be fixed. At least not easily. How do you de-program 30% of the population? It took decades to get here. We just have to somehow make it through this alive.

Very few seem to believe(groupthink) the level of evil which I believe your side's leadership is capable of so far. I'm sure that in the end your side will find it easier to just exterminate us all, and then spout some sort of justification for it.

Obviously, I see your "side" as winning in the "end".

120k dead from an incompetent response (it's a hoax, we've stopped it, we have only 1 case, China, here's all our PPE because you are doing such a great job, etc.) seems to indicate that you need to look in the mirror first.

Are you sure he's still on the same side he used to be on? He's talking like a Democrat there.

Very few seem to believe the level of evil which I believe your side's leadership is capable of so far.

That's exactly what we've been saying about the GOP. I also can't recall any "evil" coming from the blue side in recent memory, unless we're talking about trying to save lives by closing avenues of transmission (businesses and gatherings), mandating masks, and encouraging distancing. Fucking sadistic, that move is.

[Montag]

nursing home nightmare stuff

I believe it. The nursing home my MIL is on lost more than 20% of their residents.

Which city is this?

[stessier]

I am now questioning Indiana's numbers. My brother got tested this week and while we don't think he has it, the test only swabbed the entrance to his nose - he was pretty surprised that's all they did. If that's indicative of their general practice and not just a one off, their results could be artificially low.

[Max Peck]

nursing home nightmare stuff

I believe it. The nursing home my MIL is on lost more than 20% of their residents.

Which city is this?

I don't have specific figures for individual facilities, but here in Ottawa something on the order of 89% (232 of 260) of all fatalities have been in long term care facilities or retirement homes.

[Holman]

It is insane what they believe *in their bones*. It's complete fantasy land nonsense. It really shows how dangerous groupthink can be and how it can be weaponized. And I agree it can't be fixed. At least not easily. How do you de-program 30% of the population? It took decades to get here. We just have to somehow make it through this alive.

Very few seem to believe(groupthink) the level of evil which I believe your side's leadership is capable of so far. I'm sure that in the end your side will find it easier to just exterminate us all, and then spout some sort of justification for it.

Obviously, I see your "side" as winning in the "end".

120k dead from an incompetent response (it's a hoax, we've stopped it, we have only 1 case, China, here's all our PPE because you are doing such a great job, etc.) seems to indicate that you need to look in the mirror first.

Are you sure he's still on the same side he used to be on? He's talking like a Democrat there.

Very few seem to believe the level of evil which I believe your side's leadership is capable of so far.

That's exactly what we've been saying about the GOP. I also can't recall any "evil" coming from the blue side in recent memory, unless we're talking about trying to save lives by closing avenues of transmission (businesses and gatherings), mandating masks, and encouraging distancing. Fucking sadistic, that move is.

You haven't been following right-wing conspiracy theories, have you?

Conservatives are starting to crack the code, and unless we liberals move fast, they'll thwart our plan to murder all the Christians and put Fox viewers into concentration camps.

[Jeff V]

put Fox viewers into concentration camps.

This can't happen soon enough. They are already self-isolated from reality.

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

[LordMortis]

seven day moving average is now up to 24k yesterday with 27000 new cases reported and the top six states aren't looking so great

California +3,787
Texas +3,357
Florida +3,207
Arizona +2,519
North Carolina +1,757
South Carolina +992

+15,619

Death still aren't trending up, so there's that at least for now.

As you said before I'm wondering what hospital occupancy is looking like as we are now nearly a week into this upward trend at the national level.

[RunningMn9]

Which city is this?

Out in Warren County, amongst the hill people. The last numbers we got, about 70% of the residents tested positive, and about 28% of those residents didn’t make it (so about 20% overall). Somehow my MIL avoided getting it, despite her roommate testing positive.

[stessier]

South Carolina hospitals are at 70.2% with 622 Covid patients (out of 10,000 beds in the system). When I started paying attention on June 1, we were at 72.9% with 420 Covid patients. So it looks like we are kicking out the normal sick people to make room for the new sick people.

[Smoove_B]

As you said before I'm wondering what hospital occupancy is looking like as we are now nearly a week into this upward trend at the national level.

Like everything else, it likely depends on the communication / coordination between that state's health department infrastructure and the hospital systems. Here in Jerz they were reporting (and still are) broadly what capacity levels are. At the height it was broken into "regions" but at no point did they ever communicate to the public that specific hospital systems were at capacity as they didn't want to cause panic. I'm not sure what hospital systems are doing in states where government is seemingly working against public health in terms of communicating (to the press directly?) capacity. For states like AZ, their governor is saying capacity concerns are a lie and as others here have pointed out, that might be technically true. In other words, they might have beds and instead are short on staff (which still seems like it should be an alarm situation). Maybe AZ is hoping out of state medical professionals will show up and help out like they did in NY and NJ.

Like most, I'm watching in horror. I genuinely feel badly for the people residing in these states; government has failed you all.

[Holman]

seven day moving average is now up to 24k yesterday with 27000 new cases reported and the top six states aren't looking so great

California +3,787
Texas +3,357
Florida +3,207
Arizona +2,519
North Carolina +1,757
South Carolina +992

+15,619

Death still aren't trending up, so there's that at least for now.

As you said before I'm wondering what hospital occupancy is looking like as we are now nearly a week into this upward trend at the national level.

And you have to wonder whether some of those numbers have been cooked.

[LawBeefaroni]

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

Well, we can't shoot it, buy it, or invade it so...meh?

[Ralph-Wiggum]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

The density of the population yes, the density of the populace, no.

[Smoove_B]

Other random stories this morning :

The governor of Texas is now blaming the 20 somethings for the increase cases, which is on-brand.

Early data suggesting the protests related to George Floyd's murder have not resulted in a spike in cases. This is good news as it more or less supports the idea that outdoor activity (generally) is lower risk - particularly when people are wearing masks.

Now, if only we could get another data point. Like a large (15k+ people) indoor event where people are in close contact for hours, yelling and screaming with little to no mask use. Sure, it's going to take another 10+ days to get results, but maybe by early July we'll have an excellent example of another scenario that presents different risks. That would be helpful.

[malchior]

seven day moving average is now up to 24k yesterday with 27000 new cases reported and the top six states aren't looking so great

California +3,787
Texas +3,357
Florida +3,207
Arizona +2,519
North Carolina +1,757
South Carolina +992

+15,619

Death still aren't trending up, so there's that at least for now.

As you said before I'm wondering what hospital occupancy is looking like as we are now nearly a week into this upward trend at the national level.

And you have to wonder whether some of those numbers have been cooked.

I'd say very high likelihood cooked. We have to consider the stakes involved plus these aren't good people.

[Smoove_B]

Speaking of not good people (and yet another post I'm not entirely sure where it should go):

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 3013249026

Tony Fauci has nothing to do with NFL Football. They are planning a very safe and controlled opening. However, if they don’t stand for our National Anthem and our Great American Flag, I won’t be watching!!!

[$iljanus]

Now, if only we could get another data point. Like a large (15k+ people) indoor event where people are in close contact for hours, yelling and screaming with little to no mask use. Sure, it's going to take another 10+ days to get results, but maybe by early July we'll have an excellent example of another scenario that presents different risks. That would be helpful.

Covie says Make America Great Again!

[LordMortis]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

conversely that means the initial outbreaks and spread would happen more rapidly and peel back quicker.

[LordMortis]

The governor of Texas is now blaming the 20 somethings for the increase cases, which is on-brand.

I would too. The desire to be social and act invulnerable and not see outside of your own desire is strong in 20 somethings, especially when the data backs that they aren't going to be 1 in a thousand or 1 in ten thousand. Of course if you don't create and enforce the laws for the 20 somethings to follow then a 20 something is going to be a 20 something, en masse, every day.

[Grifman]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

That's deceptive. We have vast areas with little to no population. We still have a lot of dense urban areas, though with single family housing, it's not as dense.

[Holman]

Early data suggesting the protests related to George Floyd's murder have not resulted in a spike in cases. This is good news as it more or less supports the idea that outdoor activity (generally) is lower risk - particularly when people are wearing masks.

Now, if only we could get another data point. Like a large (15k+ people) indoor event where people are in close contact for hours, yelling and screaming with little to no mask use. Sure, it's going to take another 10+ days to get results, but maybe by early July we'll have an excellent example of another scenario that presents different risks. That would be helpful.

It probably makes a difference that the average street protester skews much younger than the average mask-hating covid-denying MAGA cultist.

[raydude]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

The density of the population yes, the density of the populace, no.

This could be an angle to exploit. Push the narrative that the "US is surrendering to the virus" while "France and Europe have not surrendered". Maybe that will get the MAGA hats to wear masks, just to show those Euros who's the non-surrenderer.

[Octavious]

We're so f'n screwed. Maybe if we hit like 500,000 dead people will start to listen? Nah...

[LawBeefaroni]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

The density of the population yes, the density of the populace, no.

This could be an angle to exploit. Push the narrative that the "US is surrendering to the virus" while "France and Europe have not surrendered". Maybe that will get the MAGA hats to wear masks, just to show those Euros who's the non-surrenderer.

If Trump sold branded MAGA masks for $45 on his website, we'd be out of this in no time.

Seriously, I think that's all it would take.

[LordMortis]

Heh, he could have co-opted mask wearing in April, made millions and claimed all of these mask wearers were showing their support of him. It's good you aren't on his staff.

[Paingod]

Heh, he could have co-opted mask wearing in April, made millions and claimed all of these mask wearers were showing their support of him. It's good you aren't on his staff.

Jeebus, and if they had made it look like two exhaust pipes spewing out rolling coal every time you exhaled, Trump might be a real millionaire.

[LordMortis]

Looks like TN has COVID case increase envy

https://www.wkrn.com/community/health/c ... tennessee/

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – The Tennessee Department of Health has confirmed additional cases of COVID-19 across the state on Friday, June 19, 2020.

The health department reported 1,188 new cases, bringing the state to a total of 34,017 total cases, a 4% day-to-day increase since Thursday. Of the total cases, 33,776 are confirmed and 241 are probable.

The number of new cases reported Friday is a record-high for Tennessee. The previous single-day new cases record was 1,156 on May 1.

I don't expect to see a decrease in cases for 6/19 come tomorrow.

[Pyperkub]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1273973204047069184

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” -European scientist.

What's crazy to me is that the population density of the EU is more than 3x that in the US; shouldn't that make it even harder to control something like the Coronavirus? And yet, here we are.

That's deceptive. We have vast areas with little to no population. We still have a lot of dense urban areas, though with single family housing, it's not as dense.

IMHO, I think one huge factor is Nursing Homes in the US - where it really has raged like wildfire. However - here's the WaPo on Europe and Germany:

Whereas the U.S. response to the crisis has at times appeared disconnected from American scientists’ publicly available findings, U.S. researchers’ conclusions informed the actions of foreign governments.

“A large portion of [Germany’s] measures that proved effective was based on studies by leading U.S. research institutes,” said Karl Lauterbach, a Harvard-educated epidemiologist who is a member of the German parliament for the Social Democrats, who are part of the coalition government. Lauterbach advised the German parliament and the government during the pandemic.

Despite its far older population, Germany has confirmed fewer than 9,000 coronavirus-linked deaths, compared with almost 120,000 in the United States. (Germany has about one-fourth of the United States’ population.)

Lauterbach cited in particular the work of Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, whose research with colleagues recently said that forms of social distancing may have to remain in place into 2022. Lipsitch’s work, Lauterbach said, helped him to convince German Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the pandemic will be “the new normal” for the time being, and it impacted German officials’ thinking on how long their strategy should be in place.

[Alefroth]

Heh, he could have co-opted mask wearing in April, made millions and claimed all of these mask wearers were showing their support of him. It's good you aren't on his staff.

Jeebus, and if they had made it look like two exhaust pipes spewing out rolling coal every time you exhaled, Trump might be a real millionaire.

Or gun masks.

[Unagi]

I'm pretty anti-gun, but I admit - I will maybe buy a mask-gun, as long as Trump sees it as a sign of support for those against Trump, and I can wear it to a rally.

And I can use it as a weapon against those that are attacking my face with their unmasked chest hole.

[Skinypupy]

In the article about about Trump's Tulsa hate rally, this caught my eye:

“I don’t fear anything. If today is the day I die, today is the day I die," said Riniker, 62, who drove to Tulsa from his home in Arkansas earlier this week to attend what he said was his first political rally since Ronald Reagan was running for office. "I'm not paranoid, I'm not afraid."

Riniker brought a homemade mask that his neighbor had given him and said he would wear it "if the need arises," but doubted it would come that.

"I'm not stupid," he said Friday, on the eve of the rally. "I'm not going to jump in a den of snakes and sit in front of someone who is coughing uncontrollably. But I do have a mask just in case."

Proving, yet again, that people have no idea why masks were even recommended in the first place.

[Zaxxon]

Looks like TN has COVID case increase envy

https://www.wkrn.com/community/health/c ... tennessee/

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – The Tennessee Department of Health has confirmed additional cases of COVID-19 across the state on Friday, June 19, 2020.

The health department reported 1,188 new cases, bringing the state to a total of 34,017 total cases, a 4% day-to-day increase since Thursday. Of the total cases, 33,776 are confirmed and 241 are probable.

The number of new cases reported Friday is a record-high for Tennessee. The previous single-day new cases record was 1,156 on May 1.

I don't expect to see a decrease in cases for 6/19 come tomorrow.

My Mom lives in the Gatlinburg area. The tourists are back in force, largely sans masks. It's a disaster.

[LordMortis]

It's a disaster.

New cases for 6/19

+33,539

Texas +4,497
Florida +3,822
California +3,608
Arizona +3,246
Tennessee +1,188
New York +1,167
North Carolina +1,150
Georgia +1,097
South Carolina +1,083

Not good. That 23k 7 day rolling average? 25.5 and climbing. And now we wait two weeks to see how this translates.

[Smoove_B]

This seems like a pretty bold claim:

Had American leaders taken the decisive, early measures that several other nations took when they had exactly the same information the U.S. did, at exactly the same time in their experience of the novel coronavirus, how many of these Covid-19 deaths could have been prevented?

That isn’t a hypothetical question. And the answer that emerges from a direct comparison of the fatalities in and policies of the U.S. and other countries — South Korea, Australia, Germany, and Singapore — indicates that between 70% and 99% of the Americans who died from this pandemic might have been saved by measures demonstrated by others to have been feasible.

[LordMortis]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity

So at 33,000 on a Saturday, I'm thinking it has to be due to increased testing which means surely positive rates are still declining, right?

Nope

Dammit.