Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[stessier]

I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?

[Grifman]

The 3 most populous states are breaking coronavirus records, leading to fears of 'apocalyptic' surges:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/u ... index.html

Houston's emergency rooms are at 97% capacity and the virus is still increasing in TX. Time is proving that without adequate social distancing measure, NYC is the future of every large city in America.

[Holman]

I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?

He once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.

Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.

[YellowKing]

There is a more extended version of the first woman circulating on Twitter - what you see here is just part of her rant. She goes on to talk about Bill Gates, 5G and 6 foot social distancing:

The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.

[stessier]

I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?

He once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.

Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks.

[The Meal]

Ah, makes no sense. Thanks.

Mortoned

[Holman]

The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.

I've been reading that QAnon has really taken off among "influencers" on TikTok, which means its getting millions of views from kids and young adults.

We need to treat it like a cult.

[raydude]

The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.

I've been reading that QAnon has really taken off among "influencers" on TikTok, which means its getting millions of views from kids and young adults.

We need to treat it like a cult.

Isn't one of the central tenents of QAnon that one day Trump will expose the deep state and prosecute them all? I don't know that if/when Trump loses the election saying "WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?" will dissipate QAnon or only make it stronger. Is there evidence for this in doomsday cults when the doomsday date has come and gone?

[Holman]

The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.

I've been reading that QAnon has really taken off among "influencers" on TikTok, which means its getting millions of views from kids and young adults.

We need to treat it like a cult.

Isn't one of the central tenents of QAnon that one day Trump will expose the deep state and prosecute them all? I don't know that if/when Trump loses the election saying "WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?" will dissipate QAnon or only make it stronger. Is there evidence for this in doomsday cults when the doomsday date has come and gone?

They'll claim that the election was rigged and call Trump a political martyr. Then Trump will be John the Baptist to their next political savior.

[Vorret]

You have to be very mentally disturbed to see Trump as a savior it's scary to think that there are people out there who refuse to see the flaws of someone or the shortcoming of your whole party simply because you want to "win".

I was waiting outside a Tim Horton earlier today (max 5 people inside at a time) and a girl who was waiting on someone who was inside started babbling on how there aren't more deaths than there usually are and that the life expectancy is the same and how all those measures are useless and all I could think of is it's like that BECAUSE of all the measure we took, just look in the south of the US and you'll have a pretty good picture of how bad it can get, infection wise, if people go with the IDGAF route.

[YellowKing]

Is there evidence for this in doomsday cults when the doomsday date has come and gone?

I listen to a LOT of podcasts about cults, read books about cults, and watch cult documentaries. I love cult stuff.

To answer your question, in *most* doomsday cult cases I've read about, the passing of a doomsday date without effect has generally weakened the cult. Weakened, however, doesn't mean "disbanded." And many examples of doomsday cults come long before internet, social media, 24 hours news, constantly reinforcing beliefs.

I think we're in uncharted times.

[geezer]

Don't think it will pass but if it does, I'll be driving to Wisconsin or Indiana to get new fishing gear to offset taxes. America!

Wow, I wonder if I could deduct photography trip expenses like new gear?

You mean the equipment itself? Check out a section 179 deduction.

Actually already do that one, heh.

Cheers!

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/ed_kilgore/status/1 ... 4406483968

Makes sense.

[Isgrimnur]

Dallas and Tarrant (Fort Worth) counties are going under mandatory masks for open businesses.

[LawBeefaroni]

I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?

He once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.

Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks.

It's the old Bilderberg conspiracy thing. That the rich want to reduce the population by up to 2/3s to have their own private Playground Earth. Before Gates it was Buffett, the Queen of England/reptilians, W Bush, you name it.

[Isgrimnur]

I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?

He once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.

Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks.

It's the old Bilderberg conspiracy thing. That the rich want to reduce the population by up to 2/3s to have their own private Playground Earth. Before Gates it was Buffett, the Queen of England/reptilians, W Bush, you name it.

[LordMortis]

I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?

He once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.

Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks.

Bill Gates was trying to take over the world through Microsoft but then he lost antitrust laws to Netscape. So he stepped to down from MS to move on to aspirations of ruling the world through biotechnology under the guise of being a vaccination philanthropist.

I'm not even kidding. I learned by watching JP's satire on how COVID 19 is a media scare and people who think for themselves can see through it. Hearing him say that was like putting on the glasses.

Spoiler:

4:10 if you can't stand sitting through the whole thing, 5:30 to Bill Gates specific.

May 6, 2020

This pretty much ended my watching JP videos.

[Vorret]

lmao I love that it all ended with Netscape, I mean it's probably still in the top 100 most used browser so that was totally worth it.

[Smoove_B]

Parties, not protests are causing spread:

For the clusters that have popped up, Lautenbach says the state has been using contact tracing to learn more about how they're contributing to the spread of the virus. For instance, it found that 14 cases were associated with a party of 100 to 150 people in early June. Subsequently, 15 more cases were associated with the original 14.

"So that one event spread to 29 people and 31 related employers," Lautenbach says. "Our challenge is to continue to trace as it moves through families, as it moves through workplaces and as it moves through social events as well."

But protests just aren't spreading the disease in the same way, Lautenbach says.

"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread."

This contact tracing thing sounds important.

[El Guapo]

In general my impression is that there's an enormous difference in risk between indoors and outdoors. Basically seems like if you have people together indoors without masks for 1+ hours, everyone's getting it (if one person does). But if you're outdoors, and particularly if your outdoors with masks, the risk of transmission is pretty low (though definitely not zero).

[Smoove_B]

Correct. The recommendations now are based on the observational studies that have been conducted. Outdoors, wearing a mask - lower risk. Outdoors, no masks, slightly higher risk. Indoors, wearing a mask - higher risk. Indoors no masks - highest risk.

Again, in all cases better to be outside than in. This is why activities that revolve around being inside (movie theater, classroom, office work, indoor dining, etc...) are problematic.

[Blackhawk]

NYC is the future of every large city in America.

After 15 years of pulling my hair out trying to find a way to escape this tiny redneck town (population under 4k, with the next largest town - at 5k - 20 miles away), for once I'm happy to just stay put. This is the place to be.

[El Guapo]

Correct. The recommendations now are based on the observational studies that have been conducted. Outdoors, wearing a mask - lower risk. Outdoors, no masks, slightly higher risk. Indoors, wearing a mask - higher risk. Indoors no masks - highest risk.

Again, in all cases better to be outside than in. This is why activities that revolve around being inside (movie theater, classroom, office work, indoor dining, etc...) are problematic.

Yeah, but also it seems like the risk increase is exponential between those. Like, it's not like there's a 10% risk for outdoors with mask then 30% for outdoors no mask then 50% for indoor mask and then 70% for indoors no mask. Rather, it's more like 10% --> 20% --> 40% --> 90%.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, unofficially. We don't know the exact numbers (and what could be impacting them - humidity, circulated air, volume of talking, etc...) but by all accounts the risk dramatically increases for people being inside and not wearing a mask.

[noxiousdog]

Yes, unofficially. We don't know the exact numbers (and what could be impacting them - humidity, circulated air, volume of talking, etc...) but by all accounts the risk dramatically increases for people being inside and not wearing a mask.

Do you know of any models that have been created to estimate it?

[Smoove_B]

Not exactly models, but the biggest study involving mask/goggle use and distancing was published in the Lancet earlier this month.

Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1 m or more, compared with a distance of less than 1 m (n=10 736, pooled adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·18, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·38; risk difference [RD] −10·2%, 95% CI −11·5 to −7·5; moderate certainty); protection was increased as distance was lengthened (change in relative risk [RR] 2·02 per m; pinteraction=0·041; moderate certainty). Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD −14·3%, −15·9 to −10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks; pinteraction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty). Eye protection also was associated with less infection (n=3713; aOR 0·22, 95% CI 0·12 to 0·39, RD −10·6%, 95% CI −12·5 to −7·7; low certainty). Unadjusted studies and subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed similar findings.

However even this is still heavily qualified:

The primary limitation of our study is that all studies were non-randomised, not always fully adjusted, and might suffer from recall and measurement bias (eg, direct contact in some studies might not be measuring near distance). However, unadjusted, adjusted, frequentist, and Bayesian meta-analyses all supported the main findings, and large or very large effects were recorded. Nevertheless, we are cautious not to be overly certain in the precise quantitative estimates of effects, although the qualitative effect and direction is probably of high certainty. Many studies did not provide information on precise distances, and direct contact was equated to 0 m distance; none of the eligible studies quantitatively evaluated whether distances of more than 2 m were more effective, although our meta-regression provides potential predictions for estimates of risk. Few studies assessed the effect of interventions in non-health-care settings, and they primarily evaluated mask use in households or contacts of cases, although beneficial associations were seen across settings. Furthermore, most evidence was from studies that reported on SARS and MERS (n=6674 patients with COVID-19, of 25 697 total), but data from these previous epidemics provide the most direct information for COVID-19 currently. We did not specifically assess the effect of duration of exposure on risk for transmission, although whether or not this variable was judged a risk factor considerably varied across studies, from any duration to a minimum of 1 h. Because of inconsistent reporting, information is limited about whether aerosol-generating procedures were in place in studies using respirators, and whether masks worn by infected patients might alter the effectiveness of each intervention, although the stronger association with N95 or similar respirators over other masks persisted when adjusting for studies reporting aerosol-generating medical procedures. These factors might account for some of the residual statistical heterogeneity seen for some outcomes, albeit I2 is commonly inflated in meta-analyses of observational data,21, 22 and nevertheless the effects seen were large and probably clinically important in all adjusted studies.

I'm not aware yet of any studies (it feels too early) that have simply crafted experimental conditions to definitively model risk. Everything is being done retroactively through observational studies.

Eventually we'll absolutely see studies incorporating all those indoor variables, but I fear in the interim we're going to be at the mercy of these observational studies based on various outbreaks that are identified and then analyzed.

By way of example, I haven't read it yet (it was just published yesterday), this study covering college students in TX is a perfect example of how we're trying to learn as everything is unfolding.

During contact tracing interviews, Cabo San Lucas travelers reported sharing housing in both Mexico and upon return to Austin. The proximity created by this shared housing likely contributed to transmission through ongoing exposure and reexposure to SARS-CoV-2. This pattern of social interaction, in which residents gather frequently to socialize and share facilities, is common among many college-aged persons and might lead to propagated spread, similar to the continued person-to-person transmission observed in long-term care facilities (5). The prevalence of shared housing and prolonged exposure experienced by the college-aged Cabo San Lucas travelers highlights the importance of universities and schools considering how to align students’ living arrangements with CDC recommendations for living in shared housing†† as they plan to reopen.

[Smoove_B]

News from California:

Family gatherings and celebrations among friends are causing infection rates to climb quicker than expected, giving the disease fertile territory to spread exponentially in homes and workplaces.

...

The scenario is playing out across the state. In Santa Cruz County, 50 new cases stemmed from one infected individual who attended a Mother’s Day gathering. In Imperial County, officials fear the toll of last weekend’s Father’s Day after seeing increases tied to Easter, Memorial Day and graduation get-togethers.

...

Counties across the state are toppling records and, overall, California recorded a single-day high of 7,149 new COVID cases Tuesday. Statewide, cases are also climbing over time, with a 40% jump in the average number of daily cases over the past 14 days compared with the two previous weeks. Hospitalizations were up 29%, and the number of people requiring intensive care grew 18%.

State and county stay-at-home orders bought California valuable time to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus and prepare its health care system to handle a surge in sick patients. But Gov. Gavin Newsom, who issued the country’s first statewide stay-at-home order, has allowed counties to reopen at a much faster pace than originally planned.

Since Newsom unveiled his fast-tracked reopening plan May 8, the death toll has soared by nearly 3,000, bringing total deaths to 5,632 as of Tuesday.

Of California’s 58 counties, 54 have largely reopened. State public health authorities are monitoring nearly a dozen of them even as people throng to bars and restaurants. Crowds are flocking to shopping malls, movie theaters are open, and hair salons and tattoo shops are booking appointments again. Families are gathering for holiday celebrations and friends are reconnecting after months apart.

[LawBeefaroni]

Hearing of increased infections (of staff) at area hospitals. It's been down since the peak times but the last few days picking up in bunches. Units are having 2-3 infected and it may cause some capacity issues. Contact tracing has been rapid and intense so there's that.



Was on a call with someone who lives in the suburbs. She said that everyone out there made reservations Monday or Tuesday this week to get to into restaurants this weekend. Everything is booked by now.

Going to be yet another interesting weekend.

[Smoove_B]

Going to be yet another interesting weekend.

https://twitter.com/KHCourage/status/12 ... 0231836672

Just got some sage and succinct advice from a clinical epidemiologist for a coronavirus story I'm reporting:

"Bars – don’t go into them"

[Alefroth]

Parties, not protests are causing spread:

For the clusters that have popped up, Lautenbach says the state has been using contact tracing to learn more about how they're contributing to the spread of the virus. For instance, it found that 14 cases were associated with a party of 100 to 150 people in early June. Subsequently, 15 more cases were associated with the original 14.

"So that one event spread to 29 people and 31 related employers," Lautenbach says. "Our challenge is to continue to trace as it moves through families, as it moves through workplaces and as it moves through social events as well."

But protests just aren't spreading the disease in the same way, Lautenbach says.

"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread."

This contact tracing thing sounds important.

That's my county, and where my GOP state rep is trying to undermine Inslee's contact tracing proposal and his masks required order. Our number of cases has been pretty low, we aren't getting hammered like Yakima on the other side of the Cascades, which is bascially the cultural divide in the state.

[hitbyambulance]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01891-8

Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes
Evidence from tissue studies and some people with COVID-19 shows that the virus damages insulin-producing cells.

[Kraken]

This afternoon my radio told me that a new study out of China found that antibodies in the formerly infected decline by 80% after three months, taking immunity along with them. Not good, if true.

[ImLawBoy]

Hearing of increased infections (of staff) at area hospitals. It's been down since the peak times but the last few days picking up in bunches. Units are having 2-3 infected and it may cause some capacity issues. Contact tracing has been rapid and intense so there's that.



Was on a call with someone who lives in the suburbs. She said that everyone out there made reservations Monday or Tuesday this week to get to into restaurants this weekend. Everything is booked by now.

Going to be yet another interesting weekend.

I was at a (virtual) Continuing Legal Education seminar this afternoon covering representation issues with elder LGBTQ+ individuals (so not exactly a haven for the MAGA crowd). During one of the breakout sessions, two of the people talked about how they were looking forward to dining out this weekend. On the one hand I understand the desire to get out there, and I understand that these restaurants and their employees need the money. On the other hand, I'll be making dinner at home this weekend.

[Alefroth]

NYC is the future of every large city in America.

Unfortunately they aren't full of New Yorkers.

[Smoove_B]

Hey NJ, haven't heard from you in a while. How's the re-opening going?

The coronavirus transmission rate has increased in 16 of New Jersey’s 21 counties over the past week - with six counties rising at least 50% - as the state moves forward with Stage 2 of the reopening plan, but the overall rate remains below the key 1-to-1 mark used to track the spread of the outbreak, officials said Thursday.

Ok, well I guess as long as it's below the 1:1 level we can continue to just march forward with all our gatherings and openings.

Gov. Phil Murphy said the latest transmission rate - meaning the number of new cases from each infection - has increased to .88, up from .70 earlier this month.

The rate of transmission was .81 on Tuesday and .86 Wednesday. Both of those are still far lower than the rate of 5.31 in New Jersey in March when Murphy issued a stay-at-home order and sweeping closures to slow the spread of the virus.

Everything is fine. Consume.

Regardless I'm confident it'll be over 1 by next week. I sure hope that contact tracing program is fully up and running and everyone is trained on the new system being deployed.

[LawBeefaroni]

At least Americans aren't uniquely stupid.

[Smoove_B]

Horrible story out of Texas:

That crisis, all began on May 30 when just a single relative, unknowingly infected with COVID-19, interacted with seven family members at a surprise birthday party who later tested positive.

Now, Ron Barbosa is keeping track of 18 people in his family who have tested positive for COVID-19.

Per Barbosa, those seven family members contracted and spread the virus to 10 other relatives either at the party or through other family interactions.

...

Even though everyone did their best to stay socially distant, Barbosa said it likely wasn't enough as he suspects the party may have been a catalyst for the spread though there's no way to truly know.

"It wasn't that long. It was only a couple of hours," Barbosa, a volunteer EMT said. "But during that brief time, somehow the other 18 family members are now infected with COVID."

Barbosa, who is also married to a doctor, said he and his wife refused to go to the party due to safety reasons.

However, it was a party that by current state health standards appeared harmless considering it was just family. A total of 25 people attended, Barbosa said, and not all of them arrived at the same time or stayed for the same duration.

Public health is best communicated through stories. These are exactly the kinds of stories we need to keep track of and share because this could be anyone's family.

[Zaxxon]

Tangentially related...

https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/statu ... 01216?s=19

[LawBeefaroni]

Tangentially related...

https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/statu ... 01216?s=19

Wow.



Here's the thing about the US system. If you have money, lots of it, it's one of the best systems in the world. If you have a decent amount of money and employer insurance, it's good enough. But for everyone else it's one health event away from disaster.

The problem is they policy is set by those who have all the advantages in the current system.

[Grifman]

Both TX and NC are pausing their reopenings. Neither is moving to the next stage. NC governor Cooper is catching crap of course from rabid reopeners as is the Republican governor of Texas, but the latter just makes it more interesting.