Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:41 am

Moat_Man wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:08 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:48 pm ON the bad news side, we may have screwed the pooch.

Even with renewed measures, one expert says there's no proof that reclosing bars and other businesses will slow the resurgence of the virus in parts of the US.
"They're trying to see if they can do this surgically, meaning just close bars or 50% restaurants and encourage use of masks or in some cases mandate masks and stop short of that full lockdown," said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean for the national school of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. "What's the evidence that that will work?

Just ask Sweden.

C'mon Merica! We can do better an catchup to these numbers and be #1!

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:49 pm

Just got the note from my county that I have to sign up for e-learning by July 27th. This is going to be different than what happened in the Spring as they are hiring dedicated teachers who have experience with online learning for whomever signs up. As such, we have to commit to a year of doing it because every teacher they hire for this is one less teacher they will have in a classroom. In January, however, they will try to get people back in to brick and mortar if they desire and there is space.

Seems to be a reasonable plan, but it's hard for me to make the decision given how social my kids are/used to be. On the other hand, we hit a one day high of 1723 cases yesterday with a 19.5% positive rate...so I'm not sure the math would change very much if I could wait until mid-August to make the decision. Being the grownup stinks...I want a refund.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:56 pm

That sounds similar to what our district is likely to propose, stessier. I hate it because of the damage it's bound to do to the social development of the kids, but it's hard for me to argue that any form of in-person classes on a regular basis is going to be safe given present data.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:57 pm

Max Peck wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:40 am U.S. buys up worldwide stock of remdesivir, drug seen as potential COVID-19 treatment
The United States has secured nearly the entire worldwide supply of remdesivir, a drug that’s proven effective for severely ill patients of the novel coronavirus — leaving hardly any for Canada and the rest of the world.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Monday it has secured more than 500,000 treatment courses of the drug from its sole manufacturer Gilead Sciences for American hospitals through September. Each treatment course uses an average of over six vials of the drug.

According to a news release, the buyout represents 100 per cent of Gilead’s projected production for July, 90 per cent of August’s production, and 90 per cent of production through September. A further “allocation for clinical trials” has also been secured.

HHS Secretary Alex Azar called the move “an amazing deal” struck by U.S. President Donald Trump “to ensure Americans have access to the first authorized therapeutic for COVID-19.”

“To the extent possible, we want to ensure that any American patient who needs remdesivir can get it,” Azar added in a statement.
Strictly speaking, isn't this the second "authorized" drug that Trump has tried to stockpile? It'll be interesting to see how he doles it out to states in need, and who benefits from any profits if it is routed through resellers as seemed to be the case for PPE that was acquired by the Feds in earlier stages.

So many questions. Did we commit to paying $1.5 billion for an experimental drug that shows promise? If this is as life saving as it could be, can't (shouldn't) Gilead license its production to competitors? Don't we have a stake in this in that they use 100,000,000 in tax funding toward its development?

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... -treatment

https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancin ... cal-trials

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:05 pm

The 9 year old had her birthday party over the weekend. Netflix party (Back to the Future!) followed by a zoom chat. She had a blast and the other kids seemed to as well. The toughest part was cutting off the zoom at like 10pm Central because there were kids on Eastern time. Meanwhile the western kids were in front of their pools in lingering daylight. Endless push and pull bit we finally pulled the plug.

Anyway, it was good but not ideal. The kiddo understood and we did what we could to make it a celebratory weekend and birthday on Monday.

Then on Monday, she gets and invitation to an in-person birthday party from a friend who was in Miami for the past week. Party is today (two days after the invite). We said no and our kid is upset, the other kid is upset, and the parents are insulted. I give only one half of a shit but now will have to deal with FOMO tonight.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:05 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:56 pm That sounds similar to what our district is likely to propose, stessier. I hate it because of the damage it's bound to do to the social development of the kids, but it's hard for me to argue that any form of in-person classes on a regular basis is going to be safe given present data.

The logical part of my brain says it is an easy decision. The emotional part is dragging it's feet. Part of my problem is we are changing schools, so my daughter is losing all her friends. Additionally, we are leaving a religious school and none of her friends are allowed to use the internet, so she hasn't had any outside contact since March. That's got to be tough for an 11 year old even if she seems to be doing pretty well.

It will be interesting to see what happens to my 14 year old. We are starting her high school in a charter school this year - I can't imagine they have the budget to do some online learning for people and some in person learning for others. It's going to be interesting.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:15 pm

stessier wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:05 pmThe logical part of my brain says it is an easy decision. The emotional part is dragging it's feet.

Same.

Part of my problem is we are changing schools, so my daughter is losing all her friends.

That sucks.

none of her friends are allowed to use the internet

OK, I fear much more for the development of those kids.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:23 pm

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:57 pm So many questions. Did we commit to paying $1.5 billion for an experimental drug that shows promise? If this is as life saving as it could be, can't (shouldn't) Gilead license its production to competitors? Don't we have a stake in this in that they use 100,000,000 in tax funding toward its development?

I'm not certain whether the drug is particularly life saving. From what I've read, at most it has been shown to reduce recovery time for severe cases by a few days. I haven't heard anything about it having a positive impact on mortality, although reducing the duration of hospitalization might provide an indirect impact by freeing up beds more quickly. In some ways, this feels more like a sequel to the hydroxychloroquine stockpiling, albeit with more basis in fact, where the Trump administration is grasping at straws so that if it does pan out, Trump can look like a hero to American voters. And as an added bonus, he gets to piss off the rest of the entire world.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:24 pm

The Army is really having troubles, and it is scary for the rest of us:

Out of the 110 students in the course, 82 students, along with eight instructors, tested positive for COVID-19, Janice Burton, a spokeswoman for SWCS told Military.com. The course was terminated and all 110 soldiers are being quarantined for 14 days, Burton said.

The three-week SERE course at Camp Mackall is one of the phases of the Special Forces Qualification Course (Q-Course). Students receive two weeks of training to learn how to live off the land, evade enemy patrols, resist the enemy's interrogation techniques and escape from captivity. On week three, the students are broken up into small groups for a field training exercise which involves two to four days in a prisoner-of-war setting.

SWCS officials said the command implemented strict COVID-19 guidelines at the outbreak of the pandemic.

"We have 2,400 students training here every day at SWCS and that [90] is the only sick population we have," Burton said.

Before attending any SWCS course, students are isolated for 14 days, Burton said, who added that if they test positive, they are quarantined for another 14 days.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:16 pm

Rave to the grave

Rockland County officials announced a coronavirus cluster Wednesday linked to a house party in West Nyack.

Officials say there have been at least eight confirmed cases, with one test pending, in West Nyack and New City.

The patients are mainly among young adults in their 20s, who were connected to the party on June 17.

Officials say the party host was already symptomatic, and since the initial party, there were at least two other parties with some common attendees.

Some are said to be refusing to cooperate with contact tracers and are facing fines.

Subpoenas were issued to nine people, officials said, with $2,000 per day fines possible for non-compliance with the Rockland County Department of Health.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:40 pm

FWIW, the only school options being given in Indiana are 1) return to school with whatever precautions the local rural, Republican district feels are appropriate (

), or 2) pull the kids out and homeschool. Since I'm not at all qualified to homeschool a high school junior, we just have to cross our fingers and hope for the best.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:49 pm

malchior wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:16 pm Some are said to be refusing to cooperate with contact tracers and

should be sent to an isolated leper colony where they can be free to reject what it means to live in a society

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:51 pm

As someone that just took a course get certified on the new system locally, it's already coded into the responses ("Would not cooperate") and then shuttled out of the workflow. How it'll be handled after that is anyone's guess. I mean, I know how it would be handled normally but we're in the after-times right now and I'm guessing it's considered patriotic to refuse to answer questions....or something.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:09 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:40 pm FWIW, the only school options being given in Indiana are 1) return to school with whatever precautions the local rural, Republican district feels are appropriate ( ), or 2) pull the kids out and homeschool. Since I'm not at all qualified to homeschool a high school junior, we just have to cross our fingers and hope for the best.

Indiana Digital Learning School

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:35 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:09 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:40 pm FWIW, the only school options being given in Indiana are 1) return to school with whatever precautions the local rural, Republican district feels are appropriate ( ), or 2) pull the kids out and homeschool. Since I'm not at all qualified to homeschool a high school junior, we just have to cross our fingers and hope for the best.
Indiana Digital Learning School

Careful now.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:56 pm

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:53 am

It's like raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain on your wedding day....

https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/ ... 0367050757

JUST IN: More than 40 South Bay school principals are in quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 during an in-person meeting to plan the reopening of schools.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:07 am

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:56 pm

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:11 am

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:27 am

Where's malchior? Women's roller derby has a plan:

The roller derby guidelines put community and player health ahead of the need to keep the game going for the sake of eager fans. Meanwhile, in other sports, efforts to resume play continue even as cases turn up among players; and Covid-19 numbers are rising in the very areas where events are meant to be held. By taking local infection dynamics into account, the roller derby guidelines could end up serving as a template for how other leagues—including those for recreational, youth, and high school sports—could safely come back.

...

The guidelines don’t just address athletes, but also include recommendations for officials, photographers, announcers, and other volunteers. The section spelling out the WFTDA’s safety-first policy on spectators is so good, it “almost made me cry,” Binney says. “It’s so nice to see a clear, unambiguously right take.” According to the guidelines, a small live audience is permissible at tier 5, but large-scale events and audiences likely will require “the existence of commercially available vaccines.” This puts them on the conserative end of the spectrum. While pro leagues like the National Basketball Association and Major League Baseball are also restarting without fans, college football, NASCAR, and the Kentucky Derby are all still planning to allow spectators, as of now.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:13 pm

LOL. My take is the plan essentially closes down the sport permanently. If this applied to the 1918 flu they'd probably still be not playing. The entry into re-opening requires 5 new cases per 10000 in 2 weeks in any "county" that a person lives in the entire team lives on. That gets a team to Phase 1 to have a non-contact practice with their home teams (a subset of the team). That's basically impossible. To get to Phase 2 requires *another 2 week period* at 5 per 10000 new cases. Phase *7* is competitive sanctioned play. It ain't happening in any realistic time frame. So a team needs to trace the county level data of every team member for months on end.My wife's team has people living across 10 counties in NJ and 3 counties in NY. It's absurd. I'm glad an epidemiologist approves of it but we've seen waves of player/official retirements since most people think it's over.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:26 pm

I think curling is well positioned to be the breakout sport of the year!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:25 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:13 pm LOL. My take is the plan essentially closes down the sport permanently.

That's what's so funny to me about the school plan for re-opening in September. They're telling schools to "work with" contact tracing plans so they can quickly identify sick students and all of their contacts. Note that the NJ contact tracing plan is current a hot mess. Roller Derby leagues should be doing the same (I guess) but the system isn't set up for the scale we're expecting. If (for example) this was all set up back in March (like, if it was existing infrastructure) we could have slowly started adding into an already existing program. Instead, a whole new program has been created *and* it's being launched at the same time things are opening.

Trouble. There is trouble ahead.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:33 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:25 pmTrouble. There is trouble ahead, behind, and around.

FTFY.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:34 pm

An article published in The Medium and signed by over 500 epidemiologists regarding how they make decisions:

Contrary to recent reports by the New York Times, epidemiologists are NOT using calendars to decide when we will fly, hug, or do 18 other everyday activities again.

Why do we (530 epidemiologists and public health experts) disagree with the New York Times?

....

Our decisions about when to return to various activities consistently depend on the following:

1) The amount of COVID-19 in our specific community, which can only be known with accurate, widespread testing;

2) Which protective measures are adopted by other people in our community, reflecting public health and political responses;

3) The availability of safe, effective, affordable, and widely-used treatments and vaccines;

4) The risk of severe disease to ourselves and others around us.

I'm not an epidemiologist, but I am guided by epidemiological principles. I'd sign it if I could.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:58 pm

This makes sense, though I didn’t see if it was peer-reviewed yet or not. To safely reopen, we need a LOT more tests, especially given the probability of false negatives early in the virus course:

"A negative test, whether or not a person has symptoms, doesn't guarantee that they aren't infected by the virus," says Lauren Kucirka, M.D., Ph.D., M.Sc., obstetrics and gynecology resident at Johns Hopkins Medicine. "How we respond to, and interpret, a negative test is very important because we place others at risk when we assume the test is perfect. However, those infected with the virus are still able to potentially spread the virus."

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:25 pm

Wait...what? (update to the story posted earlier)

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1278653571521826816

Alabama state officials confirm that a group of college students took bets on and intentionally spread COVID-19, and at least 8 cases are linked to a house party in a New York City suburb.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:27 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:25 pm Wait...what?

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1278653571521826816

Alabama state officials confirm that a group of college students took bets on and intentionally spread COVID-19, and at least 8 cases are linked to a house party in a New York City suburb.

Was in the NCAA FB thread, believe it or not.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:29 pm

We're all a coronavirus thread now!

Alternatively: We really need a coronavirus sports forum

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:33 pm

"They put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. It makes no sense," McKinstry said. "They're intentionally doing it."

Literally "play stupid games, get stupid prizes."

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:34 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:25 pm Wait...what? (update to the story posted earlier)

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1278653571521826816

Alabama state officials confirm that a group of college students took bets on and intentionally spread COVID-19, and at least 8 cases are linked to a house party in a New York City suburb.

Do they have any sources for this beyond Alabama state officials saying that college students are having Covid parties? Any of the students involved, or any 'tickets' from these parties, etc.?

Kind of seems like this has all the hallmarks of a "kids these days" apocryphal story.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:38 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:34 pm Do they have any sources for this beyond Alabama state officials saying that college students are having Covid parties? Any of the students involved, or any 'tickets' from these parties, etc.?

Kind of seems like this has all the hallmarks of a "kids these days" apocryphal story.

Students in Alabama Threw COVID Parties to See Who Would Get Infected First, Say Officials

Tuscaloosa City Councilor Sonya McKinstry said students hosted the parties to intentionally infect each other with the new coronavirus, news outlets reported.

McKinstry said party organizers purposely invited guests who tested positive for COVID-19. She said the students put money in a pot and whoever got COVID first would get the cash.

“It makes no sense,” McKinstry said. “They’re intentionally doing it.”

Tuscaloosa Fire Chief Randy Smith confirmed the incidents to the City Council on Tuesday.

The department thought the parties were rumors, but Smith said after some research, officials discovered the parties were real.

“Not only do the doctors’ offices confirm it but the state confirmed they also had the same information,” Smith said.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:40 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:25 pm Roller Derby leagues should be doing the same (I guess) but the system isn't set up for the scale we're expecting. If (for example) this was all set up back in March (like, if it was existing infrastructure) we could have slowly started adding into an already existing program. Instead, a whole new program has been created *and* it's being launched at the same time things are opening.

That'd be easier than the proposed plan. The teams have to somehow collect data for each person's home county, maintain it, and then submit it to the parent organization -- Women's Flat Track Derby Association (WFTDA). My wife's team isn't even bothering to try to track it obviously because 5 cases per 100000 over 14 days isn't happening anytime soon across the 15-ish counties they need to track - some of which include NYC.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:43 pm

Max Peck wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:38 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:34 pm Do they have any sources for this beyond Alabama state officials saying that college students are having Covid parties? Any of the students involved, or any 'tickets' from these parties, etc.?

Kind of seems like this has all the hallmarks of a "kids these days" apocryphal story.
Students in Alabama Threw COVID Parties to See Who Would Get Infected First, Say Officials
Tuscaloosa City Councilor Sonya McKinstry said students hosted the parties to intentionally infect each other with the new coronavirus, news outlets reported.

McKinstry said party organizers purposely invited guests who tested positive for COVID-19. She said the students put money in a pot and whoever got COVID first would get the cash.

“It makes no sense,” McKinstry said. “They’re intentionally doing it.”

Tuscaloosa Fire Chief Randy Smith confirmed the incidents to the City Council on Tuesday.

The department thought the parties were rumors, but Smith said after some research, officials discovered the parties were real.

“Not only do the doctors’ offices confirm it but the state confirmed they also had the same information,” Smith said.

Right, this is quoting various Alabama state and local officials saying that the parties are real. But like...what's the supporting evidence? What's the "some research"? Did they talk to other Alabama state officials? Did they talk to any college students? Did they just go on Facebook for 20 minutes?

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:28 pm

Herman Cain has now been hospitalized with COVID-19.

Pretty good bet that he got it at either one of the Trump rallies (Tulsa or Phoenix).

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:52 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:43 pm Right, this is quoting various Alabama state and local officials saying that the parties are real. But like...what's the supporting evidence? What's the "some research"? Did they talk to other Alabama state officials? Did they talk to any college students? Did they just go on Facebook for 20 minutes?

The only information out there at the moment seems to be the statement made by Smith to the Tuscaloosa city council. He said that he confirmed it with doctor's offices and "the state" which I'd take to mean some sort of Alabama state officials. Beyond that, if anyone has been able to follow up with him to get more information, I'm not seeing any reporting on it as yet.

On the one hand, COVID parties seem too stupid to be true. On the other hand, well, we have America in 2020. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Meanwhile, you're far from the only skeptic.

https://twitter.com/thrasherxy/status/1 ... 1053963269

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:54 pm

Max Peck wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:52 pm Meanwhile, you're far from the only skeptic.

Thanks for posting that thread.

Yeah, this has all the hallmarks of a moral panic. It's like D&D Satanism or the Knockout Game: parents are sure it's happening and it's terrible but no one actually doing it can be located.

Kids are savvy enough to know that Covid can ruin their lungs even if they don't die from it. There's a reason they don't play Russian Roulette, either. (Nor, as it happens, do actual Russians.)

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:00 pm

https://twitter.com/vanillaice/status/1 ... 77792?s=20

TIL Vanilla Ice is smarter than a certain political party.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:20 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:54 pmKids are savvy enough to know that Covid can ruin their lungs even if they don't die from it. There's a reason they don't play Russian Roulette, either. (Nor, as it happens, do actual Russians.)

I really want to believe it's all BS, but I can't. Not yet.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:03 pm

If only we could have been working on increasing capacity. It's a shame this pandemic came out of nowhere and then just instantly exploded.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1278781826035789824

BREAKING: Testing is about to reach capacity again nationally.

LabCorp the biggest lab has capacity for 130k tests/day (out of the 500k+/day) but with the run up in cases are now running 5 day wait times.

At 7 days, testing stops being of value. We may get there soon.