LordMortis wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:20 amI dunno but it matches my bias that coworkers with elementary age school children are primary vectors for disease spread in my workplace.
As a parent of two children, I can verify that you're not experiencing a bias here. Children are harbingers of plagues, great and small. Anyone who thinks children will follow social distancing, mask, and sanitation guidelines - or that teachers will somehow be able to enforce that ON TOP of their normal workload - is dreaming.
I think schools should only re-open under specific circumstances. It's kind of a shitty thing to put whether Grandma lives or dies on little 7 year old Bethany's level of responsibility.
Black Lives Matter
2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
2025-01-20: The nightmares continue.
YellowKing wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:53 pm
I was listening to The Daily podcast and they had a guy on there who once again reiterated that countries that have opened schools have seen no appreciable rise in cases associated with it, and that kid to adult transmission seems to be much rarer than adult to kid. And you've got pediatric groups saying it's safe for kids to go back.
How many of those countries are in our position? I'm also deeply skeptical of any group saying its safe for kids. We don't know anything about long-term effects. There have been scattered reports of incidents involving children which may be Covid-19 related for instance.
My kids have been in daycare for weeks, as have been many other kids since the start of this thing. So I'm not immediately knee-jerk on "DON'T REOPEN SCHOOLS!!!!!!" I think we need to take a really good look at it and figure out if maybe some districts can open, what we can do in terms of reduced class sizes, etc.
Sure but places like Florida in the midst of exponential growth are throwing open the doors for reasons that appear to be almost purely political.
I'm not saying throw schools wide open in hot spots. But is there a reason schools in Nowhere, South Dakota have to stay closed just because Florida is seeing record cases each day?
I'm neither on the "reopen all schools immediately" or "the keep all schools closed" bandwagon. I think it needs to be looked at state by state, and for states that do re-open classes contingency plans should be in place to switch to online learning if their area flares up again.
YellowKing wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:04 am
I'm not saying throw schools wide open in hot spots. But is there a reason schools in Nowhere, South Dakota have to stay closed just because Florida is seeing record cases each day?
Totally - same thing for rural Texas or other areas. There are places where infection is rare for sure. However, I think the wider questions is that we need a balance has to be struck between little surveillance / people travel and real risk. And we can't evaluate the risk. That is my big hang up and the fact that the decisions are often dogmatic.
I'm neither on the "reopen all schools immediately" or "the keep all schools closed" bandwagon. I think it needs to be looked at state by state, and for states that do re-open classes contingency plans should be in place to switch to online learning if their area flares up again.
I have no dog in the fight and don't think it is one size fits all too. I more look at this from a wider perspective that once again children's health is often not the main concern. The sociopathic monsters who run our society only care about maintaining power by wedging on these issues. That bothers me to no end.
I think schools should only re-open under specific circumstances. It's kind of a shitty thing to put whether Grandma lives or dies on little 7 year old Bethany's level of responsibility.
What better way to teach kids that their actions (or inactions) have consequences than "you killed Grandma!"
This nation needs more tough kids to be great again. And fewer not-rich old people.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:16 am
What better way to teach kids that their actions (or inactions) have consequences than "you killed Grandma!"
In case you're wondering how our neighbors to the north are feeling about all this:
TORONTO -- A map showing the startling contrast between Canada and the United States in the fight against COVID-19 has an infectious disease expert "terrified" at the thought of reopening the border.
As Canadian COVID-19 trends continue to decline, cases in the United States propel upwards. The Canada-U.S. border remains closed until July 21 but reopening it to non-essential travel anytime soon would likely lead to a resurgence in cases, infectious disease specialist Dr. Abdu Sharkawy said.
"It absolutely terrifies me to think of the prospect of any sort of easing of restrictions that could allow greater travel between Canada and the United States," he said, adding that the United States could hit 100,000 new infections per day sometime in the next week.
YellowKing wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:04 amI'm neither on the "reopen all schools immediately" or "the keep all schools closed" bandwagon. I think it needs to be looked at state by state, and for states that do re-open classes contingency plans should be in place to switch to online learning if their area flares up again.
Kinda. Maybe. It might surprise some to learn I'm actually broadly supportive of children returning to school in September. However, that assumes the school is doing things to minimize risk *and* the community is supporting that effort. If you're expecting schools to require kids in masks, increase bus service, reduce classroom size, etc... while the surrounding community members are yelling for indoor dining, bars to be open and voluntary mask use in public, it's not going to work.
You mean south. And maybe they should build a wall. I hear walls work. They're like giant masks for your land. Oh wait masks mitigate against you infecting others. I guess we need to go back to the drawing board on walls working...
Just heard from my sister who is driving back from the airport where she dropped my (22 year old) niece off to get on a plane to visit her boyfriend in Scottsdale friggin Arizona.
WHY? Why is my otherwise intelligent sister seemingly so stupid regarding the risks of this virus? Am I the only one who thinks this is a really really bad idea right now?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
I had a sobering call with someone in Bangalore this morning. The situation sounds dire there and in India in general. Cases are increasing quickly and unique conditions there both due to population density and economics are making this pandemic difficult to control there.
If you don't know Bangalore at all, one important thing to understand is that many live in high rises or apartments. There are not many western style housing tracks with gardens aka villas or bungalows. I was speaking with my client who is a manager in the organization I am working with in big intl conglomerate. He was telling me they just found out they had a case in his building. A live in maid had tested positive. What that meant was that the 'infection apartment' had to be cleaned top to bottom, everyone else who lives *on the same floor* is quarantined for 21 days. My colleague is two floors away and he is under a 7 day quarantine. The trouble is that the maids all socialize with each other and many there have maids as labor is very cheap. Other networks of low cost labor are also spreading disease there.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
Remus West wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:21 am
Just heard from my sister who is driving back from the airport where she dropped my (22 year old) niece off to get on a plane to visit her boyfriend in Scottsdale friggin Arizona.
WHY? Why is my otherwise intelligent sister seemingly so stupid regarding the risks of this virus? Am I the only one who thinks this is a really really bad idea right now?
That's a huge nope. 22 is prime bar and nightlife age, AZ is a hot spot full of bar and nightlife rebellion, daughter lives with parents who are presumably not in a hot spot. What could possibly go wrong?
I couldn't find Scottsdale reports on infection but I did find Maricopa County
We've been stuck in our home here in Mesa, AZ for the last two and a half weeks. Wife was exposed at work (via one of the doctors, no less) and we got tested on Wednesday of last week. We still haven't heard anything back regarding the results and are currently on hold with the testing clinic.
"Don't believe everything you read on the internet." - Abraham Lincoln
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:32 am
I had a sobering call with someone in Bangalore this morning. The situation sounds dire there and in India in general. Cases are increasing quickly and unique conditions there both due to population density and economics are making this pandemic difficult to control there.
If you don't know Bangalore at all, one important thing to understand is that many live in high rises or apartments. There are not many western style housing tracks with gardens aka villas or bungalows. I was speaking with my client who is a manager in the organization I am working with in big intl conglomerate. He was telling me they just found out they had a case in his building. A live in maid had tested positive. What that meant was that the 'infection apartment' had to be cleaned top to bottom, everyone else who lives *on the same floor* is quarantined for 21 days. My colleague is two floors away and he is under a 7 day quarantine. The trouble is that the maids all socialize with each other and many there have maids as labor is very cheap. Other networks of low cost labor are also spreading disease there.
FWIW, most of my team (~100 folks) is split between Bangalore and Hyderabad and we have had a single positive case.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:32 am
I had a sobering call with someone in Bangalore this morning. The situation sounds dire there and in India in general. Cases are increasing quickly and unique conditions there both due to population density and economics are making this pandemic difficult to control there.
If you don't know Bangalore at all, one important thing to understand is that many live in high rises or apartments. There are not many western style housing tracks with gardens aka villas or bungalows. I was speaking with my client who is a manager in the organization I am working with in big intl conglomerate. He was telling me they just found out they had a case in his building. A live in maid had tested positive. What that meant was that the 'infection apartment' had to be cleaned top to bottom, everyone else who lives *on the same floor* is quarantined for 21 days. My colleague is two floors away and he is under a 7 day quarantine. The trouble is that the maids all socialize with each other and many there have maids as labor is very cheap. Other networks of low cost labor are also spreading disease there.
FWIW, most of my team (~100 folks) is split between Bangalore and Hyderabad and we have had a single positive case.
Yeah - same - there haven't been any in the big teams at the client for the entire company. Thousands of people. But they are starting to see this hit their neighbors which is why they are starting to get worried. Plus it sounds like the numbers on a whole don't look good for them overall.
Remus West wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:21 am
Just heard from my sister who is driving back from the airport where she dropped my (22 year old) niece off to get on a plane to visit her boyfriend in Scottsdale friggin Arizona.
WHY? Why is my otherwise intelligent sister seemingly so stupid regarding the risks of this virus? Am I the only one who thinks this is a really really bad idea right now?
That's a huge nope. 22 is prime bar and nightlife age, AZ is a hot spot full of bar and nightlife rebellion, daughter lives with parents who are presumably not in a hot spot. What could possibly go wrong?
I couldn't find Scottsdale reports on infection but I did find Maricopa County
Yeah, but she's also 22. What is a parent supposed to do when a 22-year-old really wants to do something risky but legal? I mean after reasoning with them fails, you can either ground them(?) or support them as best you can.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
Remus West wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:21 am
Just heard from my sister who is driving back from the airport where she dropped my (22 year old) niece off to get on a plane to visit her boyfriend in Scottsdale friggin Arizona.
WHY? Why is my otherwise intelligent sister seemingly so stupid regarding the risks of this virus? Am I the only one who thinks this is a really really bad idea right now?
That's a huge nope. 22 is prime bar and nightlife age, AZ is a hot spot full of bar and nightlife rebellion, daughter lives with parents who are presumably not in a hot spot. What could possibly go wrong?
I couldn't find Scottsdale reports on infection but I did find Maricopa County
Yeah, but she's also 22. What is a parent supposed to do when a 22-year-old really wants to do something risky but legal? I mean after reasoning with them fails, you can either ground them(?) or support them as best you can.
Its the reasoning with her part that I do not think is happening at all and which makes me worried for her. Full disclosure, my BIL is a HUGE tRumper so I wouldn't be shocked if they sent her off without so much as a mask.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
I haven't been following Britain but did it really do much to alter their approach when Boris got sick? He had it pretty rough iirc.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
stessier wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:48 am
South Carolina hospitals are at 70.2% with 622 Covid patients (out of 10,000 beds in the system). When I started paying attention on June 1, we were at 72.9% with 420 Covid patients. So it looks like we are kicking out the normal sick people to make room for the new sick people.
Today, 1599 cases and 19.6% positive rate from 8,170 tests. Hospitals state wide are at 73% capacity with 980 Covid patients. The county next door is at 97.4% capacity in their hospital but they say that is misleading because they are in phase one staffing. If they need it, they go to phase two and call in more people to staff more beds. This, to me, seems to be missing the larger point.
SC reported our lowest number of cases in quite a while - only 934 new cases!! Of course, we have a 20.7% positive rate and only tested 4,521 people - we were testing ~9k/day last week with the same positive rate. Our hospital capacity is holding in there at 72.93% but we're up to 1,324 beds for Covid patients.
Novel coronavirus cases in Florida and Texas continue to soar, including nearly 3,800 and 2,700 deaths, respectively. Each state has reported nearly 205,650 to 206,450 infections to date, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.
The combined number of COVID-19-related deaths recorded in both states over the past month is greater than the total hurricane-related deaths reported in the U.S. over the past 20 years.
Looks like we could top 1,000 deaths today. Who would have seen that coming?
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.
Octavious wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:44 pm
Looks like we could top 1,000 deaths today. Who would have seen that coming?
It'll be close. It is running around 900 reported as of 7 PM EST but it is a bit of statistical noise considering Mondays/Tuesdays often catch up stuff from the end of the previous week/weekend and we had a holiday to boot. Even then it seems probable that the toll will climb or is climbing and we just haven't seen it yet.
I'm fairly certain this is just a biproduct of increased testing. I mean if we had less testing they'd have surely had a different cause of death today. (It feels wrong to spew this kind of sarcasm when people are dying but I don't know how to vent my anger and frustration and anxiety any other way)
Octavious wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:44 pm
Looks like we could top 1,000 deaths today. Who would have seen that coming?
Economists. Apparently (somehow) they're still on social media and in the news making all kinds of whack-ass predictions and somehow armchair explaining epidemiology to actual epidemiologists. How or why economists suddenly decided they knew about population health issues I don't quite understand, but it feels like it's about to get ugly. And last week Elon Musk was arguing with a virologist. I guess when you make battery cars and launch rockets you also know about antibodies and the immune system.
In a lawsuit filed in federal court in Trenton late Monday, some of the nation’s largest theater chains filed suit against Gov. Phil Murphy and Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli, challenging the continued closure of the state’s movie theaters as unconstitutional.
They sought the issuance of a temporary restraining order by a judge.
“COVID-19 represents a serious public health risk,” they wrote, saying they supported fair and reasonable actions by the government to address that risk. “However, the government-mandated total closure of movie theaters is neither fair nor reasonable,” calling it a violation of their First Amendment rights.
...
“I don’t know how a court could rule against this with a straight face,” remarked attorney Bruce S. Rosen of McCusker, Anselmi, Rosen & Carvelli, a specialist in First Amendment law. “There are many, many cases saying you cannot treat religious interests differently than secular interests. Why wouldn’t the inverse be true?”
He said that while the health considerations weighs on everyone, the matter of equal protection is significant in the case, and that the First Amendment rights of a church or other religious institution do not trump the rights of a secular business.
The rules and restrictions in our state are confusing and often counter-intuitive - I fully expected this to happen but much sooner. Churches should not be open (IMHO) as there is no difference (in terms of disease spread) between 100 people in a church or in a movie theater. It's probably best I don't make big picture decisions as I'd likely be hated even more than Murphy.
Smoove_B wrote:In case you're wondering how our neighbors to the north are feeling about all this:
TORONTO -- A map showing the startling contrast between Canada and the United States in the fight against COVID-19 has an infectious disease expert "terrified" at the thought of reopening the border.
As Canadian COVID-19 trends continue to decline, cases in the United States propel upwards. The Canada-U.S. border remains closed until July 21 but reopening it to non-essential travel anytime soon would likely lead to a resurgence in cases, infectious disease specialist Dr. Abdu Sharkawy said.
"It absolutely terrifies me to think of the prospect of any sort of easing of restrictions that could allow greater travel between Canada and the United States," he said, adding that the United States could hit 100,000 new infections per day sometime in the next week.
As seen on Twitter, that map is terribly misleading. Canada is reporting cases by province while the US reports by county, so a map like that will necessarily look like a huge spread in the US vs being contained to isolated areas in Canada.
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:17 pm
Churches should not be open (IMHO) as there is no difference (in terms of disease spread) between 100 people in a church or in a movie theater.
I've never been asked to rise and sing in a movie theater or greet those seated around me.
Yeah, the map is awful but they have every right to be concerned. We're in free fall and they shouldn't be letting Americans in (like the EU) anytime soon.
Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:20 pmI've never been asked to rise and sing in a movie theater or greet those seated around me.
No Rocky Horror Picture Show for you?
You should attend a Russian Orthodox mass. You just stand for an hour straight, get coated with incense, and have no idea what anyone is saying. It's a great time!
