Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Unagi]

We haven't surrendered to the virus, we are tired of trying to tell people they still need to keep up the good fight.

I dunno. My school district just sent out a memo to teachers - be prepared to come back to school full time in September, or be prepared to resign. Even as Austin moves into Code Red crisis mode.

And the thing is...I can't even say for certain that they're wrong. Because while opening the schools up is most definitely going to be a disaster for all the reasons people have painfully outlined in this thread....the sad truth is, keeping them closed would be a huge disaster as well. Parents need to go back to work. Kids need to socialize, and to be educated. Our school system is enormous, and has an awful lot of poor kids. There's no feasible way to have everyone distance educate even if there were the resources to do so...which there aren't.

It's a huge mess, and increasingly, it seems to me like the only way out is through.

I understand what you are saying. But - mass death is worse than the other options. Period. Kid's can socialize right now. We can figure out how to get people to work or the help they need when they aren't. These are not impossible problems (with the leadership some are under, I understand they may as well be).... but nothing can bring back 100's of thousands of dead people or what their death brings to the economy, our social lives (imagine the child that knows they gave grampa the virus he died of), and the education is not Oxygen... we can hold our breaths a little on that and tell the tale.

[El Guapo]

We haven't surrendered to the virus, we are tired of trying to tell people they still need to keep up the good fight.

I dunno. My school district just sent out a memo to teachers - be prepared to come back to school full time in September, or be prepared to resign. Even as Austin moves into Code Red crisis mode.

And the thing is...I can't even say for certain that they're wrong. Because while opening the schools up is most definitely going to be a disaster for all the reasons people have painfully outlined in this thread....the sad truth is, keeping them closed would be a huge disaster as well. Parents need to go back to work. Kids need to socialize, and to be educated. Our school system is enormous, and has an awful lot of poor kids. There's no feasible way to have everyone distance educate even if there were the resources to do so...which there aren't.

It's a huge mess, and increasingly, it seems to me like the only way out is through.

I understand what you are saying. But - mass death is worse than the other options. Period. Kid's can socialize right now. We can figure out how to get people to work or the help they need when they aren't. These are not impossible problems (with the leadership some are under, I understand they may as well be).... but nothing can bring back 100's of thousands of dead people or what their death brings to the economy, our social lives (imagine the child that knows they gave grampa the virus he died of), and the education is not Oxygen... we can hold our breaths a little on that and tell the tale.

I think "socializing" is understating a bit the harm to kids and families from schools being closed. The core harm I think is to kids missing maybe a year and a half of learning, plus economic harm to the parents of being drastically limited in their work. Especially for those families and districts that can't afford the full technical and other support to do distance learning right (or to do it as right as possible).

I'm not saying that schools should be open. I just think the framework of "kids should be able to hang out with their friends" is understating the downsides of school closures quite a bit.

[Holman]

Universities opening online in order to provide "a real college experience but with social distancing" are either fooling themselves or fooling their customers. There's simply no way that 18/19-year-olds on their own for the first time can reasonably be expected to exercise care in managing physical contact.

The notion is ridiculous, and I speak as a nerd who was a virgin until my sophomore year.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that this Fall semester is simply a wash. Our efforts should be all about keeping everyone safe until a vaccine is available and widely distributed. Until then, it's just maintenance of existing skills and knowledge.

[stessier]

Some hospital statistics from SC.

1438 COVID beds in use and 177 of those are on ventilators
75% hospital bed utilization rate and 75% utilization rate for ICU beds.
25% utilization rate of ventilators
COVID-19 patients represent less than 20% of patients hospitalized.
12% of patients on ventilators are COVID-19 patients

If I did the math right, that should mean there are 1475 total people on ventilators right now of which 177 are COVID patients and there are a total of 5900 ventilators in the state leaving 4425 free.

[Smoove_B]

I'm increasingly of the opinion that this Fall semester is simply a wash. Our efforts should be all about keeping everyone safe until a vaccine is available and widely distributed. Until then, it's just maintenance of existing skills and knowledge.

I've been teaching undergrads fully online for almost a decade now and I can honestly say it took me about 2 years to settle on everything - pacing, content, grading, etc... Expecting people to figure this out over a two week period in March was insane. Giving them 3+ months to try and catch up over the summer seemed more reasonable, but still likely extremely difficult given my experiences. It's not even a tech barrier (though that's not helping), it's also design. I typically teach ~9 credits a semester (usually 6 online, 3 in person) and it's like spinning plates to keep the online courses working as intended. I legitimately don't know how a K-12 teacher could be expected to run daily classes fully online; i don't know how I'd do it.

So can it be done? Yes. But there's no way this is just something you "figure out". I still feel like there's no good answer here overall.

[Smoove_B]

Things sound dire in Houston:

Houston hospitals have been forced to treat hundreds of COVID-19 patients in their emergency rooms — sometimes for several hours or multiple days — as they scramble to open additional intensive care beds for the wave of seriously ill people streaming through their doors, according to internal numbers shared with NBC News and ProPublica.

At the same time, the region’s 12 busiest hospitals are increasingly telling emergency responders that they cannot safely accept new patients, at a rate nearly three times that of a year ago, according to data reviewed by reporters.

It didn't need to be this way.

[Smoove_B]

Also, in case you're looking to retreat into a deep pit of despair (join me, I have beer and scotch), an editorial from the Lancet suggests the worst may be yet to come:

As much of western Europe begins to ease countrywide lockdowns, globally the pandemic may still be in its infancy, with more than 160 000 new cases reported each day since June 25. Individual countries count cases differently, so direct comparisons are difficult, but the numbers illustrate a worrying pattern. At a subnational level the picture is nuanced, with local hotspots, but at a country level the picture is clear—the world is facing a worsening multipolar pandemic.

...

Two seroprevalence studies from Spain and Geneva published in The Lancet reveal an estimated seroprevalence of 5% nationally (10% in urban areas) and 10·8%, respectively. Even if antibodies confer immunity, most of the global population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. 5 months after WHO declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a global health emergency, the virus continues to beat a concerning and complex path. For much of the globe, the worst may be yet to come.

[Isgrimnur]

[Holman]

I'm increasingly of the opinion that this Fall semester is simply a wash. Our efforts should be all about keeping everyone safe until a vaccine is available and widely distributed. Until then, it's just maintenance of existing skills and knowledge.

I've been teaching undergrads fully online for almost a decade now and I can honestly say it took me about 2 years to settle on everything - pacing, content, grading, etc... Expecting people to figure this out over a two week period in March was insane. Giving them 3+ months to try and catch up over the summer seemed more reasonable, but still likely extremely difficult given my experiences. It's not even a tech barrier (though that's not helping), it's also design. I typically teach ~9 credits a semester (usually 6 online, 3 in person) and it's like spinning plates to keep the online courses working as intended. I legitimately don't know how a K-12 teacher could be expected to run daily classes fully online; i don't know how I'd do it.

So can it be done? Yes. But there's no way this is just something you "figure out". I still feel like there's no good answer here overall.

For several years I've been teaching (in-person) two university writing courses MWF and also serving all day as a librarian at a different campus TTh.

It's starting to look like this Fall's teaching (a hybrid of in-person and online teaching) will be a solid 5-day effort. I'm almost beginning to hope that the library won't have hours for me until after Christmas and a vaccine. I'll be poorer, but it will be more manageable.

[Smoove_B]

I'm almost beginning to hope that the library won't have hours for me until after Christmas and a vaccine. I'll be poorer, but it will be more manageable.

I keep seeing it being suggested that the role of academic libraries will likely change as a result of COVID.

I'm still not convinced a vaccine is going to be helping us any time soon, fwiw.

[raydude]

We haven't surrendered to the virus, we are tired of trying to tell people they still need to keep up the good fight.

I dunno. My school district just sent out a memo to teachers - be prepared to come back to school full time in September, or be prepared to resign. Even as Austin moves into Code Red crisis mode.

And the thing is...I can't even say for certain that they're wrong. Because while opening the schools up is most definitely going to be a disaster for all the reasons people have painfully outlined in this thread....the sad truth is, keeping them closed would be a huge disaster as well. Parents need to go back to work. Kids need to socialize, and to be educated. Our school system is enormous, and has an awful lot of poor kids. There's no feasible way to have everyone distance educate even if there were the resources to do so...which there aren't.

It's a huge mess, and increasingly, it seems to me like the only way out is through.

I understand what you are saying. But - mass death is worse than the other options. Period. Kid's can socialize right now. We can figure out how to get people to work or the help they need when they aren't. These are not impossible problems (with the leadership some are under, I understand they may as well be).... but nothing can bring back 100's of thousands of dead people or what their death brings to the economy, our social lives (imagine the child that knows they gave grampa the virus he died of), and the education is not Oxygen... we can hold our breaths a little on that and tell the tale.

I think "socializing" is understating a bit the harm to kids and families from schools being closed. The core harm I think is to kids missing maybe a year and a half of learning, plus economic harm to the parents of being drastically limited in their work. Especially for those families and districts that can't afford the full technical and other support to do distance learning right (or to do it as right as possible).

I'm not saying that schools should be open. I just think the framework of "kids should be able to hang out with their friends" is understating the downsides of school closures quite a bit.

I agree this is a hard problem. I put it to my middle-schooler daughter on whether she would prefer a hybrid part in-school/part virtual school option or a full virtual option and she went for the hybrid choice. I feel somewhat safer with that choice given that my state (VA) seems less batshit insane than others but it's still a little scary.

And god forbid she or my other daughter or my wife gets COVID and possibly dies from it. Because then I'll be second guessing myself wondering why I chose slightly less hardship over preventing death.

[Alefroth]

Also remember it doesn't have to end in death to overturn your lives.

[Blackhawk]

Also, in case you're looking to retreat into a deep pit of despair (join me, I have beer and scotch), an editorial from the Lancet suggests the worst may be yet to come:

My hope used to be 'slow it down until the vaccine arrives.' Now my hope is 'slow it down until Biden arrives.'

[Kraken]

Also, in case you're looking to retreat into a deep pit of despair (join me, I have beer and scotch), an editorial from the Lancet suggests the worst may be yet to come:

My hope used to be 'slow it down until the vaccine arrives.' Now my hope is 'slow it down until Biden arrives.'

I fully expect rolling stay-at-home orders to break out again in the fall. We should be doing that now. I'm not adding to my stockpiled goods, but I'm not drawing them down, either.

[Kraken]

This was a Facebook post from yesterday by somebody named "Your Daily Shit Show." (Stealing it from Odin, who hasn't posted here in like forever.)

So if you didn’t catch yesterday morning’s shitshow, it went basically like this:

The CDC put out its official recommendations and requirements states should meet before reopening schools.

Trump went to twitter, shitted on the CDC recommendations, demanding that k-12 schools fully open up in the fall. He threatened to cut federal funding if they do not.

Then the coronavirus task force held a press conference, minus Fauci, because he’s on the President’s shit list.

Betsy Devos said she really really really wants kids back in school. She does not know how to do this, offered no suggestions. Just that they need to open, and leaves it up to local officials to figure it out.

Vice President Pence said children are resilient. Basically made out of cartilage with healthy lungs. They probably won’t get sick, so we shouldn’t worry about them. There is also no disagreement between the CDC and Trump. Trump wants schools to open, and just doesn’t want the CDC’s guidelines to be the reason for schools not opening?

Yes, he actually said he doesn’t want states to keep their schools closed just because their own CDC says it is not safe to open.

So the VP says, don’t worry, let’s bring up the Director of the CDC to clarify. -And I could‘ve sworn I heard this guy gulp off camera.

But the director of the CDC comes up and says he also wants schools to open safely. He said he likes his job and wants to keep it, therefore, he is also in full agreement with Trump, despite the guidelines they released hours before.

So then Dr. Birx comes on and says half the country has seen a surge of new cases. The country is worse off than it was back at the start of all this. She said they should return to phase 1 and start all over.

Now, an astute reader may wonder how do half the states return to phase 1, and still expect to open by fall? Good question. ..... And while you were thinking about it, Birx tries to leave the podium.

But before she gets away, Pence stops her, suggests she ‘talk about that other thing about the children’. She hesitates, then agrees.

She comes back up to the mic, says most children probably won’t die. Maybe 0.02%. And usually the ones who die were already sick, so you parents at home may want to keep an eye on them. Oh- and we have virtually no data on how transmissible the virus is in children because we’ve barely tested any of them, but let me get out of your hair.

Pence comes back and says, see, we’re good here.

————————-

So while all that is going Cuomo is holding his own press conference.

He says I don’t even give a shit what Trump is saying. It’s not worth responding to the clown. States control school openings, and we will do it as safely as possible, end of discussion.

Other states blew off our warnings, and now they are paying the price. You want to fix your states? Pull your heads out of your asses and follow our example.

—————————

And Fauci has gone total rogue. He has been giving interviews across the media spectrum, politely telling anyone who will listen that following trump’s orders regarding the Coronavirus will lead to certain doom. Death and economic disaster on a scale never seen before. Please turn back while you still can.

And now you are filled in.

Preach it, bruh. I hadn't heard anything from or about Fauci for a few days.

[Unagi]

Some hospital statistics from SC.

1438 COVID beds in use and 177 of those are on ventilators
75% hospital bed utilization rate and 75% utilization rate for ICU beds.
25% utilization rate of ventilators
COVID-19 patients represent less than 20% of patients hospitalized.
12% of patients on ventilators are COVID-19 patients

If I did the math right, that should mean there are 1475 total people on ventilators right now of which 177 are COVID patients and there are a total of 5900 ventilators in the state leaving 4425 free.

Your math checks out

[Skinypupy]

Well, this should help in Utah anyways. LDS Church asks members to wear masks. It’s going to be fascinating to watch though, as the staunchest anti-mask advocates I know are Mormons.

As a non-religious person, it’s utterly baffling to me how a substantial number of adults wlll completely disregard all the data around mask usage…but then be perfectly willing to slap one on when their church says it’s ok. I can’t wrap my head around that at all.

[Unagi]

While certainly not all religious people ignore all data, to me this is clearly the problem behind religious faith.
Faith is not just ‘belief without evidence’, it is very often ‘belief while being in the teeth of evidence’ too.

[malchior]

Some hospital statistics from SC.

1438 COVID beds in use and 177 of those are on ventilators
75% hospital bed utilization rate and 75% utilization rate for ICU beds.
25% utilization rate of ventilators
COVID-19 patients represent less than 20% of patients hospitalized.
12% of patients on ventilators are COVID-19 patients

If I did the math right, that should mean there are 1475 total people on ventilators right now of which 177 are COVID patients and there are a total of 5900 ventilators in the state leaving 4425 free.

Your math checks out

I agree but it raises questions for me. Here is a snip from WBTV on April 24th, 2020.

New numbers from the state show an increase in both the supply and use of ventilators across South Carolina.

The South Carolina Emergency Management Division shows there are currently 1,850 ventilators in the state with 365 in use. The numbers are self-reported by the hospitals and officials say the numbers are up because more facilities are reporting. This week 76 hospitals reported.

Last week there was a 6% drop in ventilator use from the week prior. Now, however, things have gone back up. There were 308 ventilators in use last week and there are 365 in use this week.

So it seems like the state added ~4000 ventilators in the intervening time. Pretty impressive. However, there were 365 in use back at that time. Now the numbers have surged to ~1500. If you go by their released data, current COVID-19 patients only account for a small percentage of this higher level of usage. My first observation is that 1500 would be near the state's capacity after it was first increased to deal with COVID in April. In fact, if you dig in it gets worse. I found this article that shows that there were 1260 ventilators available in SC prior to the pandemic. So current patient load is currently more than the capacity of the state pre COVID-19 yet isn't COVID-19? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. My takeaway? This data is either inaccurate, not being conveyed correctly, doesn't capture that there is a testing backlog, or some other health catastrophe is happening but going unnoticed.

[Smoove_B]

My takeaway? This data is either inaccurate, not being conveyed correctly, doesn't capture that there is a testing backlog, or some other health catastrophe is happening but going unnoticed.

A primer (via Twitter):

https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/12 ... 0603107336

Lots of articles about ICUs reaching capacity, but what does this actually mean?

Buckle up for a #tweetorial about ICU capacity and what it means in the context of #COVID19.
1/

[Max Peck]

Donning my tinfoil hat, I'd ask how many of those ventilators are being used to treat something like "pneumonia" rather than "COVID-19". Some of the reporting earlier this year on excess mortality statistics noted that deaths due to pneumonia were much higher than the seasonal norm in some jurisdictions. Early on, that may have simply been due to lack of testing, but it's also a possible method for obfuscating the situation if the powers that be want to downplay the impact of the pandemic.

[malchior]

Donning my tinfoil hat, I'd ask how many of those ventilators are being used to treat something like "pneumonia" rather than "COVID-19". Some of the reporting earlier this year on excess mortality statistics noted that deaths due to pneumonia were much higher than the seasonal norm in some jurisdictions. Early on, that may have simply been due to lack of testing, but it's also a possible method for obfuscating the situation if the powers that be want to downplay the impact of the pandemic.

Yup - fwiw - Polifact dove into this based on a meme that was going around. Polifact is right by the numbers but also misses the point of the confusion. It sure looks like Florida coded these in such a way that they didn't get covered by the media during the initial outbreak. You had to dive into the coding to figure out what is going on.

Our ruling
A Facebook post said, "According to the CDC, so far this year, Florida has had 1,762 deaths from COVID-19 and 5,185 from pneumonia. Average pneumonia deaths in Florida from 2013-2018 for the same time period are 918. Probably just a coincidence, yeah?"

Each number here stems from actual data, but the post makes comparisons between them that are misleading. Pneumonia deaths in Florida are up this year compared with some recent years, but the tweet ignores that the CDC’s provisional data for this year counts some deaths for now as being caused by both pneumonia and COVID-19. Finalized 2020 data released next year will list only one underlying cause of death.

We rate this claim False.

[Skinypupy]

Next door neighbor is currently holding an outdoor baby shower in their backyard. Probably 50 people there, not a single mask to be found.

[malchior]

I don't know how many systems are affected but a few of my teacher friends in NJ have been sent a list of *mandatory* PPE for the upcoming school year. Essentially, a face mask, boxes of gloves, etc. I've seen chatter from teachers asking their healthcare friends about different options in the various scenarios they'll deal with. And it is sounding like they are expected to buy all this stuff out of their own pocket. I know this isn't all that new for teacher (i.e. getting the shaft on buying teaching materials) but in this case it seems that they are basically scared to return to work, then have to make personal decisions about their safety, and oh btw foot the bill. This is really shitty.

[LawBeefaroni]

I don't know how many systems are affected but a few of my teacher friends in NJ have been sent a list of *mandatory* PPE for the upcoming school year. Essentially, a face mask, boxes of gloves, etc. I've seen chatter from teachers asking their healthcare friends about different options in the various scenarios they'll deal with. And it is sounding like they are expected to buy all this stuff out of their own pocket. I know this isn't all that new for teacher (i.e. getting the shaft on buying teaching materials) but in this case it seems that they are basically scared to return to work, then have to make personal decisions about their safety, and oh btw foot the bill. This is really shitty.

If the schools aren't at least sourcing reliable, consistent PPE for the teachers and getting them bulk discounts, this is a farce.

[LawBeefaroni]

Very Jurassic Park feel to this ad. Not at all reassuring to me and if you changed the music slightly it would be scary as shit.

[Alefroth]

Next door neighbor is currently holding an outdoor baby shower in their backyard. Probably 50 people there, not a single mask to be found.

That could make a great story for the child to retell.

[em2nought]

I'm not sure why so many so called conservative commentators are in such a hurry for kids to go back to school.

[Skinypupy]

Next door neighbor is currently holding an outdoor baby shower in their backyard. Probably 50 people there, not a single mask to be found.

That could make a great story for the child to retell.

Kids have been bugging me to have a water balloon fight all morning. I’ve told them no because I figured it would be rude to the neighbors.

After seeing the derpiness over the fence, I’m thinking I may load them up with balloons and tell them they get $1 for each one they land in the middle of the party.

[Unagi]

It’s a shower, after all.
I say, let it rain.

[Alefroth]

[Alefroth]

I'm not sure why so many so called conservative commentators are in such a hurry for kids to go back to school.

Because consistency of principles isn't one of their fortes.

[Smoove_B]

I know this isn't all that new for teacher (i.e. getting the shaft on buying teaching materials) but in this case it seems that they are basically scared to return to work, then have to make personal decisions about their safety, and oh btw foot the bill. This is really shitty.

Employers cannot skip out on providing PPE, that's crap. Even if teachers have never needed it before I'd be amazed if OSHA doesn't get involved. Then again, maybe not because Trump. Regardless, I would fully support teachers as individuals and as a group saying "hell no" over all this.

Speaking of weird things in the news:

https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1 ... 7913390080

NEW: Oklahoma reports 687 new coronavirus cases, the 2nd-highest single-day increase the state has recorded.

The 7-day average of new cases is now approaching six times what it was at for two months starting in early April.

Did anything happen in Oklahoma ~3 weeks ago?

[Exodor]

30 Year old dies after attending "COVID Party"'

I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not."

Those were the final words of a 30-year-old patient who died at Methodist Hospital in San Antonio, Texas, this week after attending a so-called "COVID party," according to the hospital's chief medical officer.

[Zarathud]

Indiana beaches had no masks but groups were 6+ feet away on the sand / in the water and about 1/2 usual crowds. The pizza we picked up was from a place on delivery and pickup only. The 2 BBQ places were wide open for usual business and packed without masks. We’ll be placing a pickup order then sanitizing.

[malchior]

I'm seeing more teacher agita on my feed beyond the PPE discussion one was having earlier - this goes back a day or two.

[malchior]

And of course an apropos story appears on my Twitter feed about this.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1282016064533073920

[Jeff V]

Our county sent a survey last week and I pretty much answered in favor of no physical school until this is under control (and a vaccine available). That I'm now Covid-unemployed. I actually have the bandwidth to work with my kids through online school.

[Blackhawk]

Ours never asked our position.

Oh, and next Saturday is Ian's graduation. It's inside the gym, and while the graduating class is only about 80 students, which is small, they're allowed six guests each. With staff, that's ~600 people in the gym.

I'm so tired of stupid.

[YellowKing]

Yeah, the more I read, the more I'm convinced there's no way to send everyone back to school safely. It's going to be a clusterfuck of epic proportions, and even the districts that do send kids back will probably be forced to shut down after a few weeks when they start having outbreaks.

Incidentally, my wife as a data manager (enrollment, etc.) for a local elementary school, and she's already starting to get inundated with parents wanting to pull their kids out and home school.

I'm getting more and more depressed each day about how all of this could have been prevented if we had stayed locked down and the government had had a plan to support the economy while we did so. Instead we did everything half-assed and erased all of our gains. We're right back to square one with no end in sight. But you know, our neighbors can go out to restaurants and go bowling now so that's nice.