Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

Of course it's nuts. If he went rogue then what is the consequence. If didn't go rogue, well that speaks for itself too. The Trump administration is so off the wall that no one even knows how to properly describe it anymore. His Rose Garden speech yesterday was just a rambling, coherent mess but we just shrug it off. I truly don't understand how we come back from this. We have no standards anymore. They simply don't exist.

Do you have macros built into OO for your posts in R&P? Because you say the same things over and over and over again in so many threads.

I mistakenly believed I had put thought into my posts but I guess not.

[Zaxxon]

It'd sure be interesting to cross-reference people's shopping cart behaviors with their mask compliance.

[malchior]

It'd sure be interesting to cross-reference people's shopping cart behaviors with their mask compliance.

I've seen it linked to Glenn Danzig. Really.

[RunningMn9]

and some people are saying we'll get hit with a 15-20% increase. In the midst of all this shit...it is going to be ugly.

If you want to see a civil war start, go ahead and try to raise my property taxes by 20%. I will burn this motherfucker to the ground.

[gbasden]

I need there to be a purge in January. I need it in my soul.

My inner rage monster is ready for that purge to be followed by summary executions.

[Smoove_B]

and some people are saying we'll get hit with a 15-20% increase. In the midst of all this shit...it is going to be ugly.

If you want to see a civil war start, go ahead and try to raise my property taxes by 20%. I will burn this motherfucker to the ground.

If NJ tries to raise property taxes by 20%+ to cover coronavirus related expenses, I would legitimately consider fleeing the state out of fear of it turning into something resembling something akin to The Road Warrior.

[Isgrimnur]

Texas is 0.61% lower. And no income tax.

[malchior]

and some people are saying we'll get hit with a 15-20% increase. In the midst of all this shit...it is going to be ugly.

If you want to see a civil war start, go ahead and try to raise my property taxes by 20%. I will burn this motherfucker to the ground.

If NJ tries to raise property taxes by 20%+ to cover coronavirus related expenses, I would legitimately consider fleeing the state out of fear of it turning into something resembling something akin to The Road Warrior.

They are legitimately talking about it in Asbury Park. I'm hearing rumbles too in my neck of the woods. And yes I'm prepared to be mad. I've paid more in school taxes than I would have for a second and third master's degree in the last 8 years.

Edit: Also keep in mind they are talking about borrowing up to $10B for a one-time budget fix for the coming fiscal year.

[Kasey Chang]

Of course it's nuts. If he went rogue then what is the consequence. If didn't go rogue, well that speaks for itself too. The Trump administration is so off the wall that no one even knows how to properly describe it anymore. His Rose Garden speech yesterday was just a rambling, coherent mess but we just shrug it off. I truly don't understand how we come back from this. We have no standards anymore. They simply don't exist.

Navarro was not rogue. But he's being thrown under the bus because he's too public/obvious about it and Trump can't take that sort of hit.

Trump will order some end-run, like shuffle Fauci off to some position of no importance and try to gag him instead of let him be a martyr in the news.

Consider this: Trump administration just ordered hospitals to report COVID stats DIRECTLY TO WHITEHOUSE, not CDC. You can guess how this is going to go.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics ... index.html

[GungHo]

and some people are saying we'll get hit with a 15-20% increase. In the midst of all this shit...it is going to be ugly.

If you want to see a civil war start, go ahead and try to raise my property taxes by 20%. I will burn this motherfucker to the ground.

Either civil war or just property abandonment rates go through the roof. Not sure either is a particularly good outcome.


Someone alluded to it earlier, I worry about serious social unrest if teachers strike en masse. And I don't think that's a far fetched idea either.

We don't get the option of 2 or 3 day a week school, you're either all in at school 5 days /week or you're all in at home, online. Though we do get the option to switch at the 9 week grading points. Wife and I still aren't sure which option we're going to go with. One day we'll think we've settled on our plan, then one or the other of us will read something that throws us back the other way. And I heard an interview with the superintendent of the Dallas Independent School District yesterday, which is by far the largest ISD within 4 hours of us, and said he'll be recommending to the school board that they delay the start of school until later than their original date of 8/17. Won't be surprised at all if many /most of the surrounding ISDs follow Dallas' lead on that. Not saying that is a good or a bad thing, but it is one more disruption to 'normal'.

[GungHo]

Texas is 0.61% lower. And no income tax.

Ok sorry for the double post but....Are you freaking serious?!?! How is that even possible? Y'all must all make $300k+/year in NJ. That is nutz

[Isgrimnur]

Zillow data:

The median list price per square foot in Dallas is $202, which is higher than the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metro average of $140.


The median list price per square foot in Newark is $135, which is lower than the New York-Newark- Jersey City Metro average of $294.

[malchior]

Of course it's nuts. If he went rogue then what is the consequence. If didn't go rogue, well that speaks for itself too. The Trump administration is so off the wall that no one even knows how to properly describe it anymore. His Rose Garden speech yesterday was just a rambling, coherent mess but we just shrug it off. I truly don't understand how we come back from this. We have no standards anymore. They simply don't exist.

Navarro was not rogue. But he's being thrown under the bus because he's too public/obvious about it and Trump can't take that sort of hit.

Trump didn't expect the blow back because he lives in a bubble.

Trump will order some end-run, like shuffle Fauci off to some position of no importance and try to gag him instead of let him be a martyr in the news.

Ordinarily he can't. I expect they'll try something this weekend. Odds it'll succeed? Who knows anymore. It should be 0% but it isn't.

[Smoove_B]

I really do hope the people at the Atlantic get awards when this is all over. Death surge - incoming:

Despite political leaders trivializing the pandemic, deaths are rising again: The seven-day average for deaths per day has now jumped by more than 200 since July 6, according to data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. By our count, states reported 855 deaths today, in line with the recent elevated numbers in mid-July.

The deaths are not happening in unpredictable places. Rather, people are dying at higher rates where there are lots of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations: in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, as well as a host of smaller southern states that all rushed to open up.

The deaths are also not happening in an unpredictable amount of time after the new outbreaks emerged. Simply look at the curves yourself. Cases began to rise on June 16; a week later, hospitalizations began to rise. Two weeks after that—21 days after cases rose—states began to report more deaths. That’s the exact number of days that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated from the onset of symptoms to the reporting of a death.

...

The point in laying out these scenarios is not that we’ll reach 300,000 or 800,000 American COVID-19 deaths. That still seems unlikely. But anyone who thinks we can just ride out the storm has perhaps not engaged with the reality of the problem. As the former CDC director Tom Frieden has said, “COVID is not going to stop on its own. The virus will continue to spread until we stop it.”

The lack of containment by American authorities has resulted in not only lost lives, but also lost businesses, savings accounts, school years, dreams, public trust, friendships. The country cannot get back to normal with a highly transmissible, deadly virus spreading in our communities. There will be no way to just “live with it.” There will only be dying from it for the unlucky, and barely surviving it for the rest of us.

[malchior]

DeSantis is going to end up being a poster boy for COVID-19 denial. Obviously Trump still is well beyond him but there is the video of DeSantis crowing about the lack of cases from re-opening. Now it is out of control and soon there likely will be a surge in deaths. And he is on video boasting about how the death toll was so low there because of the lower average age of infected patients.

[Kasey Chang]

DeSantis is going to end up being a poster boy for COVID-19 denial. Obviously Trump still is well beyond him but there is the video of DeSantis crowing about the lack of cases from re-opening. Now it is out of control and soon there likely will be a surge in deaths. And he is on video boasting about how the death toll was so low there because of the lower average age of infected patients.

Rose colored glasses and all that, he had to present the GOOD news and couch it in a way that he can't be accused of lying to the public.

To horribly misquote 2012... "When the government tells you not to panic, that's when you panic!"

[malchior]

DeSantis is going to end up being a poster boy for COVID-19 denial. Obviously Trump still is well beyond him but there is the video of DeSantis crowing about the lack of cases from re-opening. Now it is out of control and soon there likely will be a surge in deaths. And he is on video boasting about how the death toll was so low there because of the lower average age of infected patients.

Rose colored glasses and all that, he had to present the GOOD news and couch it in a way that he can't be accused of lying to the public.

To horribly misquote 2012... "When the government tells you not to panic, that's when you panic!"

I see that but he was hamming it up and making it sound like the libs were trying to keep them down and exaggerate the threat. The usual bluster. It is biting him hard.

[Kraken]

The report says the cost of implementing these COVID-19 precautions will be very high, totaling approximately $1.8 million for a school district with eight school buildings and around 3,200 students. These costs are coming at a financially uncertain moment for many school districts, and could lead to funding shortfalls. While the size of the funding shortfall will depend on how well-resourced a school district is, many districts will be unable to afford implementing the entire suite of mitigation measures, potentially leaving students and staff in those districts at greater risk of infection.

My district has 76k students in it...so they're saying it will be a bit more than 1.8 million. Interesting.

This has the potential to be a hot button topic in NJ. The state was forced to cut school aid and some towns are going to be forced to raise taxes...a lot. I'm actually waiting to get my tax bill for the coming quarter because my town had the 5th highest cuts. The school portion of my assessment is already something like 6500 per year and some people are saying we'll get hit with a 15-20% increase. In the midst of all this shit...it is going to be ugly.

You know what would be smart? If we had some sort of "federal" government above the state level, that could effectively borrow near unlimited amounts of money over the short to medium term, and that could transfer some of that money to states to help them get through a crisis like this without having to make incredibly damaging and painful cuts.

I know it sounds crazy, but I think it just might work.

[Smoove_B]

I don't have the words:

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is overruling local government mandates requiring people to wear masks in public to stop the spread of COVID-19, insisting that the state's less stringent guidelines take precedence.

Kemp on Wednesday extended the state's COVID-19 restrictions, which strongly encourage the wearing of masks, but stopped short of requiring them in public, calling such a measure "a bridge too far."

For reference:

Georgia on Wednesday reported its second-highest new coronavirus case count to date, with 3,871 new confirmed cases and 37 COVID-19 deaths. Since the start of the pandemic, nearly 128,000 people in Georgia have tested positive for coronavirus and more than 3,000 have died. Half of all new cases are being reported in the capital and largest city, Atlanta.

[LordMortis]

The lack of containment by American authorities has resulted in not only lost lives, but also lost businesses, savings accounts, school years, dreams, public trust, friendships. The country cannot get back to normal with a highly transmissible, deadly virus spreading in our communities. There will be no way to just “live with it.” There will only be dying from it for the unlucky, and barely surviving it for the rest of us.

I want to go back to your hospitalizations metric suggestion from mid June. Are any metrics being established WRT to those still in rehab after the COVID is longer presenting? Punisher has talked about what he is still going through. One of my coworker's kids was track runner who now may as well have COPD. Max posted a small study suggesting this is known issue. Everybody seems to know someone who with "complications" after recovery. One would think after 13,000,000 cases with I dunno how many hospitalizations, we'd start to be able put together a picture of more than testimonials.

[Smoove_B]

The NIH announced an observational study was starting last month, but I haven't seen anything else. Given the timeline, it's likely going to be months and months before we start hearing anything (I'd think). Similar to the actual death toll. I have no doubts numbers will be adjusted upwards as we march forward (and start looking backwards).

The chronic impacts for COVID is also the easiest way to dismantle the "only 1% of the people that get it die" argument because there seems to be a broad misunderstanding that there's only two outcomes from a COVID diagnosis - full recovery or death. There's going to be an entire generation of people that survived COVID but have chronic health issues. And that's not even touching the mental health issues the pandemic has likely caused. Documenting and understanding the wide range of chronic problems is one thing, really we need to start figuring out what the risk factors are that increase likelihood of complications. Is it age? Obesity? Is there a genetic component?

The great experiment continues.

[stessier]

Our state has a task force that has been working since May to come up with a plan for restarting schools. Based on that plan, our county has been working for weeks on implementing it for our area (I think I've written before the 4 different cases we could end up in based on community virus spread each week). Yesterday, the governor came out and said school must have a 5 day a week face-to-face option and told his person in charge to not approve any plan that didn't have this option. This blew up everything his own people had been working on/saying for weeks.

Our county's response was pretty nice.

Spoiler:

We are incredibly concerned about the Governor’s comments this morning suggesting schools in South Carolina should re-open with five-day-a-week, in-person instruction. His comments reflect a disregard for the recommendations of DHEC and the CDC that safeguard the health and safety of students, as well as the adults who serve them and are more susceptible to complications from this disease. They not only show a lack of respect for the precautions and protocols communicated by public health professionals, but are also a rejection of the AccelerateED Task Force recommendations. They further reflect a refusal to acknowledge that according to many objective sources, including Johns Hopkins University, our state is being ravaged by this virus, and ranks third in the percentage of positive tests per million residents, ahead of all but two states (Arizona and Florida) and every other nation.

In his own remarks, the Governor called on schools to follow the health and safety protocols recommended by public health officials, without acknowledging that it is impossible for schools to practice social distancing in our facilities, or on our buses, when all students are in attendance. Additionally, if we are required to adhere to 50% capacity on state buses, there is no opportunity to operate schools on a regular schedule. In GCS, it will take approximately six hours to transport students to school and six hours to transport them home if all buses are at 50% capacity, and all students are in attendance each day.

“It seems our focus should be on reducing the spread of the virus to allow for a safe return to full-time, in-person instruction by implementing state-wide measures that could help take South Carolina off the COVID hot-spot list,” said GCS Superintendent W. Burke Royster. “As a state, we are deeply divided between those who believe in a ‘return-to-school at all costs’ platform and those who recognize that fully re-opening schools could endanger our students, employees, and communities, and exacerbate the spread of the virus. Lost in all of this is the voice of moderation that looks to objectively combine a knowledge of educational operations and environments with factual information on the spread of disease, and the capacity of the healthcare systems.”

“This type of thoughtful, moderated approach is reflected in State Superintendent Molly Spearman’s decision to rely on the consideration, advice, and recommendations made by the AccelerateED Task Force and the advice of medical and public-health professionals, after a considerable amount of time and resources were spent studying the re-opening of schools,” said Royster. “Her approach mirrors the philosophy of the GCS plan to safely reopen schools this fall.”

The Governor called on Spearman to approve return-to-school plans, due from districts this Friday, only if they provide parents with an option between virtual school for some and full-time, in-person school for all other students. By contrast, Superintendent Spearman stated that our goal must be to return to five-day-a-week in-person instruction as soon as it is safe to do so, without turning a “blind eye to the health and safety of students and staff when the spread of the virus of our communities is among the highest in the world.” She went on to say that “school leaders, in consultation with public health experts, are best positioned to determine how in-person operations should be carried out to fit the needs of their local community.”

“We support Superintendent Spearman’s statement,” confirmed Royster, “And we encourage her to approve any return-to-school plans that feature adherence to public health recommendations in combination with a hybrid model focused on progressing toward a safe and timely return to full-time, in-person instruction as recommended, by AccelerateED.”

Important Points

• Individuals cannot socially distance in schools if all students attend on the same day.
• Students cannot socially distance on buses, even when at half capacity.
• Though children generally suffer fewer serious complications from this disease, there are still risks to pediatric patients.
• School-age children can spread COVID-19, even if they are asymptomatic.
• Though the Governor said we have an “abundance” of teachers in this state, in reality there is a critical shortage.
• Approximately 30% of the GCS workforce is 50 or above.
• Even in normal years, we do not have an adequate number of substitute teachers during certain times of the year, and we do not have a substitute pool for other positions. A high rate of employee illness, combined with subs’ possible unwillingness to endanger themselves, causes us to have grave concerns about our ability to supervise and teach children. This results in concerns about both academic achievement and safety.
• The Governor shut down schools across the state when there were 28 cases and no deaths in the State. As of July 12, South Carolina had 56,485 cases and 950 total deaths.

[Unagi]

Serious Question.

With the White House in charge of the data that every single plan hopes to use, what plan can you even put any serious faith in?

[stessier]

Serious Question.

With the White House in charge of the data that every single plan hopes to use, what plan can you even put any serious faith in?

Our state is relying on it's own data (theoretically), so it shouldn't matter for schools. For other things, it's obviously a travesty.

[LordMortis]

From the vast understanding of talking to one track running kid a few times in his life in my sample size of one case of the populace developing seemingly chronic problems, it is my untrained opinion that building stress on the organs, even when it is heretofore strengthening them is the major contributing factor and that we will see this phenomena displayed as professional and college sports try to resume and players who both suffered from COVID and rehabbed from more severe conditions find themselves unable to perform at the peak levels they could a year ago.

One can only hope that those smarter than I'll ever comprehend can learn ultimately learn better healing from all of this. As a person with chronic fatigue, pain, and breathing issues I would not welcome another segment of the population to my world.

[Smoove_B]

Yesterday, the governor came out and said school must have a 5 day a week face-to-face option and told his person in charge to not approve any plan that didn't have this option. This blew up everything his own people had been working on/saying for weeks.

I'm hoping we find out sooner than later that the White House is actively pressuring governors - maybe even threatening aid/funding/assistance if they don't fully open schools. And I don't even think Trump particularly cares about the schools - it's just a means to the end of keeping the economy juiced. Schools that aren't fully open means parents and guardians aren't able to work full-time.

Schools could have been working on fully remote learning plans for the last ~2 months and instead we're now ~30 days out, and everyone is scrambling with plans to try and open them.

[Unagi]

I don't have the words:

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is overruling local government mandates requiring people to wear masks in public to stop the spread of COVID-19, insisting that the state's less stringent guidelines take precedence.

Kemp on Wednesday extended the state's COVID-19 restrictions, which strongly encourage the wearing of masks, but stopped short of requiring them in public, calling such a measure "a bridge too far."

For reference:

Georgia on Wednesday reported its second-highest new coronavirus case count to date, with 3,871 new confirmed cases and 37 COVID-19 deaths. Since the start of the pandemic, nearly 128,000 people in Georgia have tested positive for coronavirus and more than 3,000 have died. Half of all new cases are being reported in the capital and largest city, Atlanta.

They have banned cities and counties from requiring masks. Holy hell. Have fun with that one, Atlanta.

Probably puts Georgia in play.

[Smoove_B]

One can only hope that those smarter than I'll ever comprehend can learn ultimately learn better healing from all of this. As a person with chronic fatigue, pain, and breathing issues I would not welcome another segment of the population to my world.

It was only relatively recently that we (public health) broadly acknowledged the idea that a single foodborne illness might cause a lifetime of chronic health impacts for someone. I've seen a few reports circulating about "years of life lost" as it relates to COVID, which is another way to measure things. But it's all abstract; it's hard for most people to think about the what-ifs or what-might-be. Instead, they focus on that 1% mortality rate and can't abstract out the numbers across the entire US population (what 1% mortality looks like) or that 20% (guess) of the people that get it and recover have a lifetime of suffering. Instead it's about some fabricated constitutional right to not have cloth on your face.

[stessier]

Schools could have been working on fully remote learning plans for the last ~2 months and instead we're now ~30 days out, and everyone is scrambling with plans to try and open them.

Our plans have to be submitted by Friday for approval - and we had a fairly well thought out plan to submit. Now who knows what is going to happen or what happens if the plan is rejected.

[Unagi]

Meanwhile, in Denver...

https://twitter.com/jordan_chavez/statu ... 93824?s=12

They really should have had two podiums.

One for those who deny the virus is a threat to them, and one for those concerned about it.

That would have been a great move. Just clean the one, of course.

[YellowKing]

Followed by a mandatory course on cognitive dissonance.

[raydude]

DeSantis is going to end up being a poster boy for COVID-19 denial. Obviously Trump still is well beyond him but there is the video of DeSantis crowing about the lack of cases from re-opening. Now it is out of control and soon there likely will be a surge in deaths. And he is on video boasting about how the death toll was so low there because of the lower average age of infected patients.

Rose colored glasses and all that, he had to present the GOOD news and couch it in a way that he can't be accused of lying to the public.

To horribly misquote 2012... "When the government tells you not to panic, that's when you panic!"

I see that but he was hamming it up and making it sound like the libs were trying to keep them down and exaggerate the threat. The usual bluster. It is biting him hard.

His head bob should be made into a meme.

[Grifman]

The governor of GA is an idiot. How did wearing masks, a simple public health precaution become so politicized? This is just insane!

[Remus West]

GA is a hot mess. First, allowing him to control the election in which he was "elected" was a huge sham and now they are really paying a price for his corruption.

BTW, Unagi, it was my understanding that the state has already been very much in play for a while now.

[Holman]

What is the timeline for vaccine development, anyway?

Some are in testing now. At what point does Pharma declare a series of tests successful and announce production? And how long is it from then until the average person can expect to get the shot?

In other words, what's the lag time between science having a vaccine and our bloodstreams having it?

[Ralph-Wiggum]

This seems... less than ideal:

https://twitter.com/charlesornstein/sta ... 81410?s=20

Spoiler:

I had hoped it was a glitch, but no...The @CDCgov hospital capacity dashboard has gone dark. @CDCDirector
has said CDC still has access to the data but apparently the public no longer does.

[malchior]

Wow. That's a new low.

[LawBeefaroni]

What is the timeline for vaccine development, anyway?

Some are in testing now. At what point does Pharma declare a series of tests successful and announce production? And how long is it from then until the average person can expect to get the shot?

In other words, what's the lag time between science having a vaccine and our bloodstreams having it?

Depend on how safe you want it to be. Usually it's a year plus for new vaccines. There is extreme political and economic pressure to get it out ASAP, trials and testing be damned.

If the Moderna vaccine is the first to market and it's before the end of this year, I will take my sweet time to get vaccinated. I don't like beta testing released games, I sure as hell won't beta test released drugs.

[Smoove_B]

Yup. Read about it here:

On the CDC site where data on available hospital beds and ICU was previously stored, a note now reads, “Data displayed on this page was submitted directly to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) and does not include data submitted to other entities contracted by or within the federal government.”

“We don’t have this critical indicator anymore,” Panchadsaram said. “The intent of just switching the data streams towards HHS, that’s fine. But you got to keep the data that you’re sharing publicly still available and up to date.”

Panchadsaram said he and his team, which includes researchers from the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy and from Resolve to Save Lives, a public health initiative led by former CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden, have been tracking the data since April.

[stessier]

What is the timeline for vaccine development, anyway?

Some are in testing now. At what point does Pharma declare a series of tests successful and announce production? And how long is it from then until the average person can expect to get the shot?

In other words, what's the lag time between science having a vaccine and our bloodstreams having it?

Depend on how safe you want it to be. Usually it's a year plus for new vaccines. There is extreme political and economic pressure to get it out ASAP, trials and testing be damned.

If the Moderna vaccine is the first to market and it's before the end of this year, I will take my sweet time to get vaccinated. I don't like beta testing released games, I sure as hell won't beta test released drugs.

A number of important people think we should be doing challenge trials.

Over 100 prominent scientists, including 15 Nobel laureates, are calling for healthy volunteers to be exposed to the coronavirus to see whether vaccines against Covid-19 actually work.

The scientists signed an open letter to Dr. Francis Collins, the head of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in the U.S., on Wednesday calling for human “challenge trials” that they say could “greatly accelerate” the development of a Covid-19 vaccine.

Challenge trials see healthy volunteers deliberately exposed to a virus, after being given a vaccine, to test whether the vaccine works to prevent infection.

Such trials are not without controversy, but organization ‘1 Day Sooner’ and other prominent experts insist the benefit of fast-tracking challenge trials outweigh the risks, and are calling on the U.S. government to authorize them.

“If challenge trials can safely and effectively speed the vaccine development process then there is a formidable presumption in favor of their use, which would require a very compelling ethical justification to overcome,” the letter published by 1 Day Sooner, an organization that advocates for challenge trials, states.