Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Paingod]

This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.

So, do smart, reasonable, rational things now to minimize long term impacts, but the goal shouldn't be to eliminate long term impacts. That doesn't seem realistic.

How do we explain to the rest of the world, to countries that have gotten COVID-19 under control, that the US is no longer a viable global partner unless they're willing to allow in our self-inflicted plague as a condition of trade and travel?

[malchior]

Agreed. But, stating the obvious, it's already having incredibly serious impacts on how we live. I suppose, the real question is to what extent we can minimize those impacts going forward and how best to achieve that.

I'm with you on this but the root problem here is that we can't do bare minimum things that 100% make sense and are super, super low impact - like recommend nationwide that we should wear a fucking mask. We're complete basket cases governance wise.

Living in OR where the impact has been one of the mildest in the nation so far, I still find myself puzzled by people who are vehemently insisting that we need to take every precaution in order to prevent new cases of the virus because that's the only way we'll get back to normal, pre-COVID19 life. I just think they're going to be disappointed when they realize there really is no going back. This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.

We can talk about how people have had their heads in the sand about how our nation was going off the rails in general. All of this goes back to our politics being broken. We can't have reasonable conversations about day-to-day things. How the heck do you chart a strategic course in this environment? It's impossible.

[Kurth]

Agreed. But, stating the obvious, it's already having incredibly serious impacts on how we live. I suppose, the real question is to what extent we can minimize those impacts going forward and how best to achieve that.

I'm with you on this but the root problem here is that we can't do bare minimum things that 100% make sense and are super, super low impact - like recommend nationwide that we should wear a fucking mask. We're complete basket cases governance wise.

Living in OR where the impact has been one of the mildest in the nation so far, I still find myself puzzled by people who are vehemently insisting that we need to take every precaution in order to prevent new cases of the virus because that's the only way we'll get back to normal, pre-COVID19 life. I just think they're going to be disappointed when they realize there really is no going back. This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.

We can talk about how people have had their heads in the sand about how our nation was going off the rails in general. All of this goes back to our politics being broken. We can't have reasonable conversations about day-to-day things. How the heck do you chart a strategic course in this environment? It's impossible.

Well, some decent leadership would be a nice start.

[Kurth]

This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.

So, do smart, reasonable, rational things now to minimize long term impacts, but the goal shouldn't be to eliminate long term impacts. That doesn't seem realistic.

How do we explain to the rest of the world, to countries that have gotten COVID-19 under control, that the US is no longer a viable global partner unless they're willing to allow in our self-inflicted plague as a condition of trade and travel?

We are a total mess, no doubt. But I’m not sure the rest of the world necessarily has COVID-19 under control. I just got off a call this morning with colleagues in Italy, France and the Netherlands, and they all reported increasing anxiety about surging cases in their areas as things begin to reopen. Similar call last night with colleagues from Japan.

[Unagi]

I'm not saying it will change anyone's mind....

...no appeal to reason is going to matter.

Well, yes.
I'm going to have to agreed with you there.

[malchior]

Agreed. But, stating the obvious, it's already having incredibly serious impacts on how we live. I suppose, the real question is to what extent we can minimize those impacts going forward and how best to achieve that.

I'm with you on this but the root problem here is that we can't do bare minimum things that 100% make sense and are super, super low impact - like recommend nationwide that we should wear a fucking mask. We're complete basket cases governance wise.

Living in OR where the impact has been one of the mildest in the nation so far, I still find myself puzzled by people who are vehemently insisting that we need to take every precaution in order to prevent new cases of the virus because that's the only way we'll get back to normal, pre-COVID19 life. I just think they're going to be disappointed when they realize there really is no going back. This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.

We can talk about how people have had their heads in the sand about how our nation was going off the rails in general. All of this goes back to our politics being broken. We can't have reasonable conversations about day-to-day things. How the heck do you chart a strategic course in this environment? It's impossible.

Well, some decent leadership would be a nice start.

Frankly this is the stuff that "keeps me up at night". Best case - Biden wins. Even if Trump doesn't pull shenanigans I can't see them not trying to sabotage the transition. He then steps into a broken nation and has to spend his first 100 days effectively trying to catch up on finishing the transition and a year's neglect on pandemic. This is an ugly scenario that I don't think anyone could have foreseen. It's nightmare fuel and that pre-supposes that the GOP doesn't go ape shit...which isn't a given.

This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.

So, do smart, reasonable, rational things now to minimize long term impacts, but the goal shouldn't be to eliminate long term impacts. That doesn't seem realistic.

How do we explain to the rest of the world, to countries that have gotten COVID-19 under control, that the US is no longer a viable global partner unless they're willing to allow in our self-inflicted plague as a condition of trade and travel?

We are a total mess, no doubt. But I’m not sure the rest of the world necessarily has COVID-19 under control. I just got off a call this morning with colleagues in Italy, France and the Netherlands, and they all reported increasing anxiety about surging cases in their areas as things begin to reopen. Similar call last night with colleagues from Japan.

I'm hearing the same thing from people overseas but their anxiety is worrying at a completely different scale. Plus, in the end they generally know their controls did work the first time and will work again even if it isn't the greatest thing. Also, any lip and they'll point at us and say...don't be the USA.

[Smoove_B]

A primer on why we can't compare what other nations are doing when we think about opening schools in the US:

In the debate over when to reopen Texas school buildings, many advocates for resuming in-person classes have pointed to western Europe and eastern Asia, where several countries have started face-to-face instruction again and largely avoided surges of the novel coronavirus.

The comparison, however, relies on a potentially dubious assumption: that Texas, home to one of the world’s largest COVID-19 outbreaks, will get the same results as Denmark, France, Germany and other countries that curbed the coronavirus before reopening schools.

...

Public health experts said Texas’ dramatically higher community spread puts the state at higher risk of wider outbreaks if some of the state’s 5 million-plus schoolchildren and their teachers return to classrooms in August, though the exact danger to the public remains unknown.

In the past week, Texas reported a daily average of 35 new cases per 100,000 residents, among the nation’s highest rates to date. By contrast, leading countries that reopened schools averaged about 1 case per 100,000 residents in the week leading up to their return of school.

Regarding what we know about school-aged children and COVID:

While few children have shown severe symptoms of COVID-19 and youth deaths are rare, much debate remains about the role students may play in spreading the virus to teachers, parents and older relatives who are at higher risk of health complications.

Some preliminary studies suggest older children can transmit the virus at rates similar to adults, while other researchers argue the evidence points to limited or nonexistent transmission. The studies to date have involved small sample sizes, complicating efforts to draw definitive conclusions.

One of the larger samples, which tracked about 150 infected children and 700 of their contacts in South Korea, concluded people aged 10 to 19 spread the virus at rates similar to adults, but children under than 10 transmitted at lower rates.

Of note:

“There’s nowhere that has had a community-wide number of cases per day that looks like many of the locations we have in the U.S. and opened schools,” said Brandon Guthrie, as assistant professor at the University of Washington’s departments of global health and epidemiology. “Because a lot of places haven’t had a huge amount of transmission, it’s hard to find enough cases to draw definitive conclusions.”

You can be sure the world is watching. Likely with horror.

[hitbyambulance]

Gov. Inslee has 'modified' the current reopening phases:

To counter that, Inslee announced a host of new restrictions that includes:

Limiting indoor dining at restaurants to members of the same household. People meeting from different households can still dine outdoors.
No indoor service at any bar, brewery, tavern, winery or distillery, regardless of whether food is being served.
For counties in the third phase of the four-part plan, restaurant table sizes must be reduced to five people, and indoor occupancy to 50%.
Restaurants must also close down game areas, such as for video games, pool tables and darts, until their county has reached the fourth phase.
Second-phase counties — like King, Pierce and Snohomish — must limit indoor fitness spaces to five customers at a time. Those indoor places include but are not limited to gyms, pools, fitness studios and tennis facilities.
Third-phase counties must cap indoor fitness occupancy to 25% and not more than 10 people to a group class, not including their instructor.
Indoor entertainment spaces — like bowling alleys, arcades, mini-golf and card rooms — are not allowed to open until the fourth phase.
Indoor movie occupancy for counties in the third phase is now limited to 25% capacity.

The governor also announced a new ban on receptions at weddings and funerals, which will take effect starting in two weeks.

[Fretmute]

I don't have kids, but my girlfriend is a pediatric occupational therapist and talks to a lot of parents. The craziest local plan I have heard is that everyone goes back to school, but if there is a positive case they shut down the school . . . for 5 days. And then go right back to waiting for the next infection, which presumably will appear 5-9 days later.

Is that Allen ISD's policy?

In Wylie they aren't requiring masks inside the school or on busses. Pretty much made our decision for us right there. We HATE the idea of another semester of virtual learning but we just can't with these guidelines. Really sucks because our oldest is transitioning to a new school this year and we really want him to be there on Day One. This is all so incredibly frustrating

Lucas. Still close enough to be worrisome.

[edit] - Although I presume their schools are smaller. Allen High School has 5,000 students. That's frightening to me in and of itself.

[Smoove_B]

Just an FYI, and perhaps some meta commentary on the current state of the CDC:

https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1286484516522033152

CDC just published a doc purporting to weigh the public health risks and education benefits of reopening schools. Having recently participated in a National Academies of Science committee on just that, I am not impressed at the paucity of this document. Covid is the reason schools were closed. It should be central to decisions about reopening in-person. To do otherwise is unfair to our families, teachers & communities. That doesn’t mean schools can’t open in person. But this is a weighty decision that deserves careful thought. There is almost no epidemiology in this. There are only 2 paras on the science, and one of those is mostly devoted to flu. Consideration given to 1) the role of kids in transmission both in school and the broader community and 2) the risk of severe disease is nearly absent. There is no mention of the risk of severe disease for teachers and staff, who are also part of the school community. There is only passing, vague mention of mitigation measures to reduce the risk of transmission. Same for community prevalence. Giving consideration to the importance of schools to children and communities is good. Our NAS report discusses that at length as well. But the degree to which this analysis breezes by the public health dimension does not sit well with me.

[malchior]

Good thread. One thing that pops out is how political the CDC paper is and at odds with its mission. The title and conclusion essentially position this as a pro opinion based on common wisdom mixed together with a little bit of evidence. Maybe the CDC has a history of bending facts to the President's policy but I doubt it. These are the type of outcomes that really concern me - the politicization of *everything*.

[Smoove_B]

The broad feeling from people in my field is utter disdain for what has been released by the CDC. I have no doubt there are excellent people working there now, but what's been coming out as official documentation and guidance since March has been questionable. This latest guidance is even more troubling. I wish I could adequately describe to someone just how demoralizing it is for me to see it, quite frankly. I don't know how to set up an adequate comparison.

[malchior]

The broad feeling from people in my field is utter disdain for what has been released by the CDC. I have no doubt there are excellent people working there now, but what's been coming out as official documentation and guidance since March has been questionable. This latest guidance is even more troubling. I wish I could adequately describe to someone just how demoralizing it is for me to see it, quite frankly. I don't know how to set up an adequate comparison.

Totally and then you have to think that even this level of policy shenanigans *wasn't good enough* so they had to bury data collection in HHS. Manipulating the output wasn't enough, they felt that they needed to be able to manipulate or hide the data itself.

[Holman]

It's hard to see the CDC fall into political hackery.

I had friends who worked there after college who felt like they were on the forefront of bettering humankind, politics be damned. But I guess even then Congress was meddling to forbid any research that would offend the NRA.

[Holman]

Just... why?

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/ ... 51009?s=20

Stephen Miller's grandmother had Covid. The WH says she had a mild case and recovered.

Her death certificate names Covid as cause of death.

[malchior]

The amount of people on the right making shit up about how death certificates are being faked out to exaggerate the Covid death count is staggering. This just leans into this. It is part of unraveling every process to imply that they are under attack by the liberals.

[wonderpug]

The amount of people on the right making shit up about how death certificates are being faked out to exaggerate the Covid death count is staggering. This just leans into this. It is part of unraveling every process to imply that they are under attack by the liberals.

How do the conspiracy theorists reconcile all the reports about COVID from the rest of the world? All the nations of the world are united in the conspiracy?

[Paingod]

The amount of people on the right making shit up about how death certificates are being faked out to exaggerate the Covid death count is staggering. This just leans into this. It is part of unraveling every process to imply that they are under attack by the liberals.

How do the conspiracy theorists reconcile all the reports about COVID from the rest of the world? All the nations of the world are united in the conspiracy?

It's a filtered media hoax, obviously. The reporting on COVID from other countries on CNN is all fabricated. No, they won't go read BBC or any other *spits* foreign trash paper. They're all in on it.

[YellowKing]

The amount of people on the right making shit up about how death certificates are being faked out to exaggerate the Covid death count is staggering. This just leans into this. It is part of unraveling every process to imply that they are under attack by the liberals.

Yeah my dad confidently told me that even if you died in a car crash while having tested positive for Covid, your cause of death would be listed as Covid.

The extremes people are going to in order to downplay this is frustrating and terrifying.

Now imagine these same people believing in climate change, which is even more nebulous and distant. We're fucked as a species.

[malchior]

There is that and there are others saying its serious but *not very serious* and to keep them down the libs are classifying everything as Covid. Here is an example of what they are being fed. There are a lot of questions to unpack here. Is it simple coding error? Is there more to it that means it is related to the coronavirus? In the end, experts have said their is a persistent under count so maybe there are errors but it still is a *deadly disease*. But that doesn't matter. The facts are meaningless because it comes down to tribal, anti-expert dogma that the GOP has been stoking for years coming home to roost. And reports like this one feed into it. And then evil men like Miller and Trump exploit it for their own gain.

https://twitter.com/KenLee50769737/stat ... 5876889600

[YellowKing]

I was going to post this in the EBG Covid thread but figured it would fit better here since this is where we've had most of the school discussion.

So after the NC governor deciding on the hybrid Plan B approach (1 week on site, 2 weeks off), there are some signs that we may be walking that back and going 100% online for at least the first nine weeks. I'm fine with that given the case count isn't decreasing at all.

Anecdotally (via mass Facebook arguments and accounts from my wife who works in the school system), the feud between parents and teachers is really contentious right now. Most teachers don't want to go back due to health concerns, most parents want kids back in school because they have to work. The teachers argue that they shouldn't have to put their lives in the line. The parents argue that millions of essential workers have been putting their lives on the line every day since this started, even without the safety precautions the schools are implementing. And in March, the teachers did jack shit in terms of actual remote teaching, and don't want a repeat of that.

It's really disappointing for me the lack of understanding on both sides to accept there is no one-size fits all solution, and that there must be some compromise somewhere. And it's incredibly disappointing to realize that the only reason parents and teachers are being put in a position to turn on each other is that the country and this administration failed them.

[Archinerd]

Yeah my dad confidently told me that even if you died in a car crash while having tested positive for Covid, your cause of death would be listed as Covid.

I heard this one yesterday too.
Even if it were true (which I'm sure it's not), it still points out the absolute incompetence of the Trump response. A corpse can get tested faster and more efficiently than a sick person?

[Zaxxon]

So after the NC governor deciding on the hybrid Plan B approach (1 week on site, 2 weeks off), there are some signs that we may be walking that back and going 100% online for at least the first nine weeks. I'm fine with that given the case count isn't decreasing at all.

A couple of districts here in Colorado have done the same, but not ours. I'm really hoping that more districts follow suit. One thing that's become clear to me is that schools are not ready with full plans yet, even if opening is a wise move (which is of course not at all a given).

[Paingod]

I'm glad some schools are approaching this with some levels of sanity. No one should just be accepting that kids will get sick and saying that's just fine.

[Smoove_B]

In case you were wondering:

Walmart and other major retailers made headlines last week with a new requirement for customers to wear masks in its US stores. But the new rules only go so far.
Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Walgreens (WBA), CVS (CVS) and others say they still won't prohibit customers who refuse to wear a mask from shopping in stores. The issue, they say, is they want to avoid confrontations between angry customers and employees.

About what I expected.

[malchior]

In case you were wondering:

Walmart and other major retailers made headlines last week with a new requirement for customers to wear masks in its US stores. But the new rules only go so far.
Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Walgreens (WBA), CVS (CVS) and others say they still won't prohibit customers who refuse to wear a mask from shopping in stores. The issue, they say, is they want to avoid confrontations between angry customers and employees.

About what I expected.

Same but I can't say I blame them.

[Smoove_B]

I'm surprised Erik Prince isn't willing to offer his services to retailers.

[stessier]

This strikes me as so stupid. Of course people down here want games. That does not mean there should be games.

CLEMSON, S.C. —
The Clemson University Board of Trustees met Friday to talk about a list of topics, including the potential return of football.

During the meeting, the school's athletic director Dan Radakovich announced results of a survey of season ticket holders.
The survey found:

83% indicated they are 'comfortable' coming to games in the fall with social distancing measures.
54% indicated they would prefer 'fall football without fans' versus 'spring football with fans.'
21% indicated they would tailgate on campus even without tickets to the game.
For more on the survey, click here.
Radakovich said the decision about the capacity of the stadium was still being discussed and he hoped for a decision in the next three weeks.

The university had already announced it would move to mobile-only ticketing for the football season. Radakovich said the information on the app that will be used will be released in August.

[Jeff V]

In other news, the market value of a Clemson degree dropped 87%.

[Isgrimnur]

NCAA-approved university-branded ventilators.

[Zarathud]

And it's incredibly disappointing to realize that the only reason parents and teachers are being put in a position to turn on each other is that the country and this administration failed them.

This is a wedge the Republican Party can and will use to destroy the last powerful union, Teachers. The anti-intellectual movement in the Republican party partly comes from sustained attempts to undermine education because educators are the enemy.

[Smoove_B]

Too precious not to share, the NJ gym that was in trouble back in May and June is continuing to cause problems (big surprise, I know). As a way to try and loophole their way through regulations, they've declared they're all romantic partners, allowing them to be inside together. They've also physically removed the doors to prevent them from being chained closed and have vowed to remain on site 24/7.

People love their gyms, I guess.

What I can't understand is how the building owner is allowing this. I guess if they keep providing rent checks, that's all that matters?

[Holman]

Too precious not to share, the NJ gym that was in trouble back in May and June is continuing to cause problems (big surprise, I know). As a way to try and loophole their way through regulations, they've declared they're all romantic partners, allowing them to be inside together. They've also physically removed the doors to prevent them from being chained closed and have vowed to remain on site 24/7.

Pics or it didn't happen.

[Kasey Chang]

When stupidities converge... Florida covid-iot was shopping at Walmart unmasked. When someone confronted him about lack of mask, he pulled out his pistol and threatened the guy with the gun while stating "I'll kill you"... While pushing his father in a wheelchair. He was arrested later when his image went viral after Sheriff's department asked for public's help to ID him.

Who the **** goes to shop at Walmart with a CCW pistol?

In other covidiot news... Another Covid-iot was arrested in Roseville, California (near Sacramento) when she decided to protest Verizon's store's mask policy by pulling her pants down and peeing on the floor. She was detained by police, and items were found in her car that is believed to have been stolen from Dick's Sporting Goods store nearby

In yet another related news...

San Francisco public transit bus driver assaulted when asking three unmaksed individuals to get off the bus... One of there three individuals pulled out a wooden bat and beat the driver several times, then all three fled the scene. No arrests had been made.

While in Hawaii...

Filipino Social Influencer Anne Salamanca (originally from Alabama) documented herself defying the 14-day self-quarantine order. She was arrested and released on bond.

[Isgrimnur]

When I get my LTC, I will carry to go to Walmart.

[Unagi]

Who the **** goes to shop at Walmart with a CCW pistol?

Is that a trick question?

Isn't the entire point of CCW so that you can bring a pistol to shop at Walmart ?

[stessier]

I thought this was pretty interesting - Diary of a Trauma Surgeon (in CA).

[Formix]

I was going to post this in the EBG Covid thread but figured it would fit better here since this is where we've had most of the school discussion.

So after the NC governor deciding on the hybrid Plan B approach (1 week on site, 2 weeks off), there are some signs that we may be walking that back and going 100% online for at least the first nine weeks. I'm fine with that given the case count isn't decreasing at all.

Anecdotally (via mass Facebook arguments and accounts from my wife who works in the school system), the feud between parents and teachers is really contentious right now. Most teachers don't want to go back due to health concerns, most parents want kids back in school because they have to work. The teachers argue that they shouldn't have to put their lives in the line. The parents argue that millions of essential workers have been putting their lives on the line every day since this started, even without the safety precautions the schools are implementing. And in March, the teachers did jack shit in terms of actual remote teaching, and don't want a repeat of that.

It's really disappointing for me the lack of understanding on both sides to accept there is no one-size fits all solution, and that there must be some compromise somewhere. And it's incredibly disappointing to realize that the only reason parents and teachers are being put in a position to turn on each other is that the country and this administration failed them.

This is exactly the experience in my neck of NC. The school board debated for four hours, listening to all sides, and finally decided almost unanimously to go with C. Parents on FB who are mad are almost uniformly Trumpaloos who didn't watch the debate. There was a survey done before the meeting which was overwhelmingly in favor of in-person schooling, so these folks thought that since that won, then that is what the school board would do. If you wanted that, then why have a board at all? Just vote on everything and away you go! The one board member who voted against C used the argument that his son is at-risk, but he still went to the beach, and kept his job at the grocery store, so how could he tell his son to do those things, but that it wasn't okay to go to school? Well mister, first of all, thanks for the false equivalency, and also, maybe some of those other decisions were WRONG! "Hey, I made a bad decision once, so for consistency's sake, shouldn't all my future decisions be equally bad?" For the most part, the other members treated him like Ruprecht and moved on.

[YellowKing]

This is where there is a gray area. There are single parents, essential workers, etc that literally have no choice but to send their kids to daycare if school is not available. And I can tell you that daycares are not necessarily equipped to give a child a place to do their remote learning work or be able to provide assistance. I’d wager that the vast majority are not.

So while it’s easy to say “just do remote learning,” for some parents that means their kids aren’t going to learn jack shit this school year AND they’re going to have to incur significant child care costs for the privilege of having their kid learn nothing.

And you can understand the frustration when the state says “you can send your child to a daycare class with 20 unmasked kids every day, but you can’t send your kid to a school classroom with 7 socially distanced masked kids every day.”

Again, I know daycare workers who have been at work around school age children every day since this pandemic started. The only difference is they don’t have a giant daycare workers union telling the state they’re not going to do their job.

[Grifman]

Trump is calling for schools to reopen, yet his own son's school will going to hybid in person/online or totally online:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/p ... virus.html

I wish the press would ask the president about this, and ask him if he is going to withdraw his son from that school and put him in one that will have full time in person classes since he feels that is so important.