Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:51 am

I genuinely have no idea what the right answer is here, especially for people living in states that learned nothing from NY/NJ back in March /April.

Here in NJ, we currently have a very low amount of circulating virus and we aim to keep it that way. And so most schools are offering full remote learning (my daughter’s preference), and a hybrid model (my preference). In my daughter’s HS, they are looking at a model where they go twice a week, rotating between groups, and online three days a week.

My daughter doesn’t want to do the hybrid model because all of her friends are in the other group.

But for states that are in a current outbreak? You guys are playing with fire. I totally get that it feels like you have to do something for lots of reasons, and maybe you’re right. But you guys are in this position because your states didn’t listen to Smoove. You got to choose between open bars or open schools, and your leaders picked open bars.

For states that just start cramming kids into schools in the middle of an outbreak, what happens when some kids die from COVID? Who has to answer for that? Who is going to sit down and say that this is important enough that they are willing to sacrifice X kids?

How many kids are you willing to sacrifice? Does the number go up as long as it’s other people’s kids?

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:56 am

YellowKing wrote:This is where there is a gray area. There are single parents, essential workers, etc that literally have no choice but to send their kids to daycare if school is not available. And I can tell you that daycares are not necessarily equipped to give a child a place to do their remote learning work or be able to provide assistance. I’d wager that the vast majority are not.

So while it’s easy to say “just do remote learning,” for some parents that means their kids aren’t going to learn jack shit this school year AND they’re going to have to incur significant child care costs for the privilege of having their kid learn nothing.

And you can understand the frustration when the state says “you can send your child to a daycare class with 20 unmasked kids every day, but you can’t send your kid to a school classroom with 7 socially distanced masked kids every day.”

Again, I know daycare workers who have been at work around school age children every day since this pandemic started. The only difference is they don’t have a giant daycare workers union telling the state they’re not going to do their job.

This is what rally makes me furious. There really is a need for SOME in-person school. But instead of reacting like human beings during this crisis Republicans chose to fight a culture war and election campaign. Depressing the response, poo pooping the science, obfuscation priorities with all or nothing false questions. My colleagues and I have been discussing hybrid and reduced schedules since March. But instead we're here in anti-mask land, where either it's full classes 5 days a week 8 hrs a day, or communism,18 yr olds are biologically closer to 5 yr olds than 19 yr olds, teachers are just collateral damage not to be talked about.

All the wrong questions. Even if we had focused on the right questions, there's plenty to disagree over, to figure out. Gaaahhh.

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Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:20 am

RunningMn9 wrote:
For states that just start cramming kids into schools in the middle of an outbreak, what happens when some kids die from COVID? Who has to answer for that? Who is going to sit down and say that this is important enough that they are willing to sacrifice X kids?

How many kids are you willing to sacrifice? Does the number go up as long as it’s other people’s kids?

Its a tough question, but the wrong one. I said it elsewhere but it needs repeated until it becomes the narrative. This isn't about the kids health directly. It's too easy a target for trumpaloos to say "theres always risk but kids don't get sick much!"

Those numbers are crazy low, and probably improved with mitigation. Only a handful of kids from each school are likely to get seriously sick and MAYBE one or two die even if the school at max population got the virus at the same time (we'll ignore for a moment the kids who die because all the hospitals are full). It's awful, we shouldn't be in this situation, but I've lost enough students to know kids die. Every single one is tragic. Especially when multiplied out across the whole population.

The average age of teachers is above 55.(from the news, not verified). The custodial staff, clerks, cafeteria workers all skew older. And then.... Every child's family. This is about the kids being carriers. How many grandma's, moms, sick brothers, are going to die?

How are those desperately needing to work parents going to cope with very possible rolling lock downs?

I don't have the answers either, but every time I prep myself to go back to school, I have to start prepping for the chance I'm going to kill keri's parents.(they live with us). If I knew people had my family's safety at heart and not their bullshit culture war I'd be more confident. I accept my part in this. I'm gearing up, but people have got to understand the right questions.
I desperately hope that's what our families are understanding. And evaluating. But I can just hear some trumpist out there telling their kid don't worry its all fake and overblown. Then a month later looking at little Stevie explaining that mommies dead because daddy's an idiot and used Stevie like a bomb.

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RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:34 am

You’re asking the question rationally, I’m asking the question politically. And in that sphere, the real problem is going to show up when a kid dies.

We all know that kids die, and they are all tragic. How many kids die because we sent them back to school when we shouldn’t have?

We aren’t in control of car accidents that claim lives. We had a young man die while playing QB in a football game a few years ago because no one knew he had mono and an enlarged spleen that was lacerated when he got sacked.

They were tragic. But we didn’t actively choose those things to happen. For any kid that dies of COVID which they caught at school, that is entirely on us.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:24 pm

Agreed, I think it's also very helpful spread the rational word and eschew the political ones as much as possible. I'm constantly flummoxed at the number of my colleagues confused by the information around the virus to the point of they don't know what's true or not. I am constantly confused by alot of the personal and practical dilemmas. But not the disease itself. This disease isn't magic.
It spreads by droplets. Maaaaaaybe aerosol.
Young kids have strong resistance to it but can still get it.
Somewhere around half the people that get it show symptoms
Somewhere in the vicinity of one out of a hundred people die from it.
Masks deter droplets. (duh)
It spreads based on how much time we spend close to each other and can linger in closed spaces.
The conspiracists thrive on arguing the details. It gives them shit to obfuscate.
Its a fucking bug that kills old people at like 20% and a substantial number of young people. The rest is just machismo chest thumping. Are you willing to kill grandma and maaaaaybe Stevie? Dan Patrick already loaded his gun, and Trump is playing pin the baton on the lib.

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Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:45 pm

Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:20 am
The average age of teachers is above 55.(from the news, not verified). The custodial staff, clerks, cafeteria workers all skew older.

One angle I haven't heard much about is, How many education workers who could conceivably retire will do so now, rather than risk going back into the schools? My hunch says "most of them," but I have nothing to base that on.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:57 pm

Kraken wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:45 pm
Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:20 am
The average age of teachers is above 55.(from the news, not verified). The custodial staff, clerks, cafeteria workers all skew older.
One angle I haven't heard much about is, How many education workers who could conceivably retire will do so now, rather than risk going back into the schools? My hunch says "most of them," but I have nothing to base that on.

Which sucks, because you need experienced teachers on a faculty to mentor the new teachers.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:05 pm

Kraken wrote:
Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:20 am
The average age of teachers is above 55.(from the news, not verified). The custodial staff, clerks, cafeteria workers all skew older.
One angle I haven't heard much about is, How many education workers who could conceivably retire will do so now, rather than risk going back into the schools? My hunch says "most of them," but I have nothing to base that on.

No idea. I'm sure its higher than normal, but anecdotally and also true for myself, this thing has many of our protect the kids and step up instincts kicked in. Teachers want to work; they want to be there and pull their weight. They don't want to die for republican poll numbers, or facilitate their students' community immolation.

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malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:10 pm

It's not just teacher's. Support staff and administrators all have to be eyeing the exits as well. We're trying to talk my MIL into retiring since she just became eligible.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:14 pm

Two years.

Two more years and the school system will be in the past for us. We'll still care, but I'll finally be able to care from an outside perspective.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:56 pm

When right wing pundits and covid deniers keep bringing up how children don't get infected like adults do and cite all sorts of cherry picked data they seem to leave out that older children, I think starting at 13, may start to become efficient spreaders like us adults. From the last time I checked, we have a thing called "middle school" and "high school" and many children seem to attend those institutions.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:13 pm

IIRC, there was an article that said that above 10, they're about as infectious as adults.

Edit: For example:

While the study from South Korea showed that children over 10 effectively spread the virus, much younger kids were 72 percent less likely to spread the disease to adults.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... ldren-cvd/

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:36 pm

Defiant wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:13 pm IIRC, there was an article that said that above 10, they're about as infectious as adults.

Edit: For example:

While the study from South Korea showed that children over 10 effectively spread the virus, much younger kids were 72 percent less likely to spread the disease to adults.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... ldren-cvd/

So the obvious course of action will be to open elementary schools and end education after 5th grade. The kids can go work in the fields like in the days of old or in the modern day equivalent work in cubicle farms doing menial coding tasks.

Formix · Post by **Formix** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:23 am

Kraken wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:45 pm
Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:20 am
The average age of teachers is above 55.(from the news, not verified). The custodial staff, clerks, cafeteria workers all skew older.
One angle I haven't heard much about is, How many education workers who could conceivably retire will do so now, rather than risk going back into the schools? My hunch says "most of them," but I have nothing to base that on.

I have also wondered about college-aged kids thinking about becoming teachers and nurses. How many of them reconsider?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:35 am

Formix wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:23 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:45 pm
Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:20 am
The average age of teachers is above 55.(from the news, not verified). The custodial staff, clerks, cafeteria workers all skew older.
One angle I haven't heard much about is, How many education workers who could conceivably retire will do so now, rather than risk going back into the schools? My hunch says "most of them," but I have nothing to base that on.
I have also wondered about college-aged kids thinking about becoming teachers and nurses. How many of them reconsider?

I dunno. We can probably expect a vaccine within a year, and this year's retirements improve next year's job market.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:24 pm

Sunday afternoon humor.

https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/ ... 7122974721

I don’t know who made this, but I can’t stop laughing.

The fact that George Takei commented on it makes it even better.

Kasey Chang · Post by **Kasey Chang** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:23 pm

SS Peter and Paul church in San Francisco tried to sneak in a "backdoor wedding" by making all guests enter through the garage on July 4, but city officials found out and stopped the proceeding. Now it turns out both bride and groom, and several guests have tested positive for COVID-19. Was it worth it?

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:03 pm

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/128 ... 65441?s=19

For the Twitter thread-averse:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1287 ... 65441.html

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:21 pm

He's absolutely correct (not that he needs me to tell him that). We don't lack the ability. We lack the willpower and leadership. We additionally lack the governance it would require to make sure people have money, food or other resources while we're all not doing things to encourage the virus to spread.

But it can't happen because freedom. And bars. And "I'm not afraid".

It's not simple or easy, but we really could have an entirely different trajectory by Oct/Nov than we are on right now.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:42 pm

Americans are special. Science will save us. Or God. One day, it will just go away.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:54 pm

The kids and Mrs Skinypupy were going completely stir crazy today. I did some research and decided I was ok with venturing out to our local zoo (Hogle Zoo). Predictably, it was a sad eye-opener.

The zoo has done a phenomenal job of setting up safety protocols. You have to make an appointment to get in and have to show up at a certain time, they only allow a certain number of guests, both traffic flow and distancing is very clearly marked, there are employees everywhere wiping things down, hand sanitizer is readily available, and masks are required.

They have done everything they can to ensure people stayed safe by implementing smart and easy to follow safety measures…which were completely ignored by at least 50% of the zoo visitors.

People would put on their masks at the ticket booth where they were told masks were mandatory, then immediately take them off the moment they got inside the zoo. Half those who did put them on wore the masks under their noses or pulled down past their chin to “technically” say they were complying. People were crowded closely together at windows, often right under giant banners which clearly mark exactly how far apart 6 feet is. They completely disregarded the very clear traffic flow markings. They made no attempt to help their kids follow the guidelines. Etc, etc. (side note: Observing the demographics of the non-maskers was hilarious. The non-maskers could have all been clone stamps of the same couple of people.)

It was a glaring example that no matter how well-intended and well-designed the safety measures are, there will be at least half the people who simply don’t care and will completely ignore them.

We’re doomed.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:03 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:21 pmIt's not simple or easy, but we really could have an entirely different trajectory by Oct/Nov than we are on right now.

Unless Trump changes his tune we very well might have a long-haul problem. Does a President Biden have a real chance to convince any of "Trump's people" to change their behavior?

dfs · Post by **dfs** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:04 pm

There is a significant minority in this country that honestly believe rules are for other people, but don't apply to them.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:25 pm

malchior wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:03 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:21 pmIt's not simple or easy, but we really could have an entirely different trajectory by Oct/Nov than we are on right now.
Unless Trump changes his tune we very well might have a long-haul problem. Does a President Biden have a real chance to convince any of "Trump's people" to change their behavior?

Prior to this year, I would have had more faith in a non-Trump President to be able to pull this out of a nosedive relatively quickly in late January of 2021. However the deplorables have not only been emboldened during the last 4 years, but I suspect after November things are going to get even worse for a while.

And then after this, we still have the anti-vax crowd to content with; I have no doubts they're going to continue to fuel spread. Between them and the forever MAGA crowd (or whatever they'll call themselves post-November), we definitely have a long road ahead.

There is a significant minority in this country that honestly believe rules are for other people, but don't apply to them.

Yes. I've taken to just calling them what they are - sociopaths.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:29 pm

We went to the beach today for the first time this summer. The parking lots were crowded, but we went late in the day and the beach itself had plenty of room to stay 20+ feet away from the nearest family so I felt pretty safe.

However, driving through town was scary. Restaurants - packed. Ice cream shops - packed. Large family groups roaming around maskless. For most, you could tell they were living in "everything's normal" reality.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:33 pm

When I was in the Philippines, there would be police stationed in mall entrances and in some business and restaurants. Usually they were very polite, sometimes opening the door for me with one hand, while the other hand held a sawed-off shotgun. I wasn't sure if I should feel safe or intimidated, but I suppose that was the point.

If police can't be spared for such enforcement activity, perhaps national guard and other troops could serve the purpose. Every big-box store for sure ought to have at least one. You don't ask the MAGA dunces nicely to comply with mask orders -- whack them in the forehead with the butt of a rifle if they refuse to comply or even bitch about it. The message needs to be "yeah, you don't need to wear a mask, but if you don't wear it here, you're not shopping here asshole."

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:36 pm

YellowKing wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:29 pm However, driving through town was scary. Restaurants - packed. Ice cream shops - packed. Large family groups roaming around maskless. For most, you could tell they were living in "everything's normal" reality.

The waterpark in my 'hood (largest in Illinois) opened last week. Driving by, I could see close-packed lines on the stairs leading up to some of the attractions. I had purchased a season pass at the end of last year that's good for this year (and, apparently now next year) but no way am I going this year.

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:34 pm

The amusement park and a water park in Denver (two different companies) never opened this year. The water park announced in May that they won't open, period. The amusement park still says the opening is "delayed", but at this point they wouldn't have time to hire and train seasonal staff even if they did decide to open, so it's highly unlikely.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:54 am

Anecdotal report from VA Beach:

We had reserved a timeshare room in our favorite hotel back in February when we hoped this thing would be over by late July. My wife and I agonized over whether to go but the kids have been such troopers with the virtual schooling, quarantining from friends, and summer school and all they asked for was to continue our annual trip to VA beach. So here we are.

Our drive in was disappointing. Virtually everyone walked around on the street with no masks. The only ones I saw with masks were African Americans. The hotel lobby was plastered with signs saying mask wearing was mandatory by order of the Governor of Virginia. Yet I saw a white lady in there with no mask on, not even one below her chin, talking to one of the staff, who was masked. Thankfully the lobby was not crowded and we had space to social distance. I don't know if that was luck or if staff was actually enforcing the max limit of 10 people in the lobby.

We managed to unload and get on an elevator with no one else and took a look at the beach. Folks seemed to be setting up at an average of 10 feet apart on the sand, but there were clusters of folks closer than 6 ft in the water.

We have been going to the beach with masks on, setting up away from people and looking for gaps in the water where we can play apart from others. I stay vigilant as folks go in the water and actually make a beeline for us sometimes; and we have to move to maintain our distance. When the girls play on the sand I stand right next to them and have my head on a swivel, looking for people who don't even try to social distance as they walk on the sand; when their path looks like a collision course to us I bark out my daughters names and we move away while I glare at them passing by.

This morning I put on my running attire and wore my mask as I rode the elevator down. On the 8th floor a reject from a Margaritaville video hops on, coffee in hand and no mask on. I sigh inside. Luckily the boardwalk is relatively empty as it's 5:30am, but then by 6am there are a few bikers who don't use the bike path and even one biker who seems to make a point of getting close to me as I try to social distance from him.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:32 am

Jeff V wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:33 pm When I was in the Philippines, there would be police stationed in mall entrances and in some business and restaurants. Usually they were very polite, sometimes opening the door for me with one hand, while the other hand held a sawed-off shotgun. I wasn't sure if I should feel safe or intimidated, but I suppose that was the point.

If police can't be spared for such enforcement activity, perhaps national guard and other troops could serve the purpose. Every big-box store for sure ought to have at least one. You don't ask the MAGA dunces nicely to comply with mask orders -- whack them in the forehead with the butt of a rifle if they refuse to comply or even bitch about it. The message needs to be "yeah, you don't need to wear a mask, but if you don't wear it here, you're not shopping here asshole."

Something something cure worse than the disease...?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:29 am

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1287740854048890880

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:55 am

Baseball is shockingly dealing with a coronavirus crisis in the Marlins. Can you believe it? What bad luck!

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:02 am

malchior wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:55 am Baseball is shockingly dealing with a coronavirus crisis in the Marlins. Can you believe it? What bad luck!

Now imagine it with an actual contact sport.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:06 am

Exactly. You're just seeing a preview for what you can expect during the attempt the NFL will make.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:40 am

Some evidence against just wearing a plastic shield:

Health officials in the canton of Graubünden studying a recent outbreak among staff at a hotel found a worrying trend - all of those who were infected wore plastic face shields, while those who avoided infection wore face masks.

Several employees of the hotel tested positive along with a guest.

Rudolf Leuthold, head of the cantonal health department in Graubünden, said the face shields were the common denominator in infections.

“It has been shown that only those employees who had plastic visors were infected. There was not a single infection among employees with a mask.”

That's kind of surprising to me overall. It's a small sample size, but an interesting observation nonetheless.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:44 am

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:40 am Some evidence against just wearing a plastic shield:

Health officials in the canton of Graubünden studying a recent outbreak among staff at a hotel found a worrying trend - all of those who were infected wore plastic face shields, while those who avoided infection wore face masks.

Several employees of the hotel tested positive along with a guest.

Rudolf Leuthold, head of the cantonal health department in Graubünden, said the face shields were the common denominator in infections.

“It has been shown that only those employees who had plastic visors were infected. There was not a single infection among employees with a mask.”
That's kind of surprising to me overall.

Doesn't surprise me that much. A face shield is like wearing a mask several inches off your face. A reflective, non absorbing mask. It will stop spittle and larger droplets but not much else. Nose breathing also goes right past a face shield. And while masks aren't used to protect the wearer as much as everyone else, the do offer some protection. Face shields do not, again except for the largest droplets.

It's better then nothing I suppose but makes things worse if it is taken to be an appropriate substitute for a mask.

Yeah, they wear them in hospitals. Over masks.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:33 pm

My sister, a nurse practitioner in an ED, refers to face shields as oversized goggles. She feels like all they do is keep thins from getting directly into her eyes. Probably a good thing where she works but not much use outside that realm.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:11 pm

It seems like the face shields would create a chimney in front of your face.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:15 pm

I didn't think the face shields were as good as a mask (as pointed out, how could they be - they hover above your face), but I was a bit surprised to see that all the people that tested positive were wearing them (and only them). That suggests to me that the micro-air currents that occur around your head during social interaction are crafty enough to allow the virus to go around and under. It could also mean that the virus is way more virulent (few viral particles are needed) than we realize.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:53 pm

So nationwide, it seems like we've reached another peak and curves seem to be flattening.

I don't know if I believe it as this change coincides with the switch from reporting to the CDC to reporting to HHS. Locally, it seems our percent positive rate dropped from averaging right around 20% for 4 weeks to 14% over the course of 3 days. Our state health department still says there are some hospitals they know are having trouble reporting in the new system, so they've stopped updating us on hospital and ventilator usage.

Normally, I'd just roll with the punches, but this is the data they are relying on to open schools. A decreasing rate of infection means hybrid learning versus full online (which is where we were last week). If it's a real drop - great! I just don't trust that it's real.