malchior wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:37 am
The risk isn't a wholesale cancellation of the election. The risk is that the electoral system has shown it has issues already. We'll be under electronic attack by at least three nations. There might be attempts to use Federal storm troopers to scare off voters. Many signs point to the reasonably high chances that this will be the *worst* election we've dealt with and the President is an autocratic cheater. So we don't have to leap to 'cancel election'. We have many other real things to worry about.
To clarify, this is what I was talking about -- not canceling or postponing the election, but intimidating voters into staying home and doing everything possible to invalidate or cast doubt upon mail-in ballots.
The initial brownshirt deployments are designed to radicalize the opposition, make it spread, and justify more brownshirts. Will the courts be able to prevent that? IDK, it's hard to order around uniformed thugs with machine guns who don't report to you.
Grifman wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:23 pm
Still keeping my fingers crossed but I don't see anything that is going to change the trajectory of this election. The virus is not going to go away and the economy is not going to significantly recover by Election Day. Nothing else really matters in comparison.
Not even brownshirts gassing moms in Democratic cities? You're assuming we'll be able to vote.
Call me naive, but I think it's over reacting to believe that we won't be able to vote. Voting is handled on a local and state level, the federal government has very little ability, IMO, to impact that. Look at voting by mail - Trump has been on a rant about that but that hasn't stopped various states from going ahead and mailing ballot applications to millions of people. What has Trump done about that - nothing. He hasn't even tried suing the states to stop it, which is the minimum he could do. And Trump isn't competent enough to manage/control a vote shut down. We're extremely lucky this time that our autocrat/dictator wannabe is just so incompetent and ill disciplined.
I mostly agree with you. I don't think Trump is in a position to prevent the election from the White House. I think the scenario of declaring a national emergency and postponing the election is far-fetched.
But my worry is that Trump cronies and sycophants at the local level will work to depress the vote in Dem-majority areas wherever possible. There's not much Trump can do, but there's plenty a state-level governor or secretary of state can do to make voting more difficult.
And there are already signs that Trump's hand-picked head of the USPS is not to be trusted.
We in the service knew this from the get-go. Fortunately, the ballots are obvious, and we have a responsibility to push this through, even if it means delaying other mail.
This is a weird take on the cusp of and August where experts are starting to recommend another lockdown and the GOP is playing chicken with coronavirus stimulus.
If you read on in the thread the point he's saying that there's a ton of economic uncertainty right now, and you need to be cautious about putting economic data / indexes / projections, because (for example) a lot of those indexes are bullish on the economy by November. And so if you input that straight into a model you could get weird results like a 5 point swing towards Trump, which is probably wrong (and not what 538 is putting into their model).
Point is - be careful about incorporating economic variables / predictions when there's a lot of uncertainty.
There apparently is a huge increase in the number of put orders in the futures market for November. So the market itself is betting on the market going down for the November election, not up.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Kraken wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:45 am
I still expect a market panic before the election. Who are you going to trust, me or a bunch of experts?
Me too. I get that the feds are pumping a ton of money into the system, but that only works for so long.
I'm guessing the same yahoos that are predicting no economic pain by November are the same ones that said nobody saw the last recession coming.
Unemployment is still 11%.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:19 pm
If you read on in the thread the point he's saying that there's a ton of economic uncertainty right now, and you need to be cautious about putting economic data / indexes / projections, because (for example) a lot of those indexes are bullish on the economy by November.
That isn't the same thread. That Tweet you quoted was a response when he was later questioned. I'm glad he clarified but leaving out that it wasn't in his actual model wasn't clear from the initial posts.
Finally some good news from the Democratic side. Biden's economy speech got covered by all the major networks today and it is a strong performance. And at least it got that horrific Judiciary committee hearing off the tv box for a little while.
The prevailing sentiment among my nephew's friends is summed up thusly:
"I'm voting green. Vote for a senile pedophile or a pedo nazi douchebag? I'll fucking pass."
"I already voted. Can't remember who I voted for either. It was like a month ago."
"I voted green party last time...our two party system fucking suckssss but I don’t personally feel that this election is the right one to split the vote." "I knooow girl but what better time then when our only options are a pedophile or a nazi?"
Apparently there's widespread agreement among Gen Z that Biden is a pedophile. There's no shortage of pics of grabby Joe to fuel that narrative. When I try gently arguing with them, all I get is "OK boomer."
Kraken wrote: Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:51 pmApparently there's widespread agreement among Gen Z that Biden is a pedophile. There's no shortage of pics of grabby Joe to fuel that narrative. When I try gently arguing with them, all I get is "OK boomer."
Have witnessed the same conclusion from Gen Z'ers I interact with here in CO as well. I cannot more strongly state how the perfect should not be the enemy of the good in our efforts to get the modern day GOP out of office, but it tends to fall on deaf, young ears.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
Youth turnout compared to 2016 is either flat or down in a majority of states that have voted, according to the Harvard Institute of Politics, meaning young voters both form a smaller share of the overall Democratic primary vote and turned out in smaller net numbers. Sanders could end up seeing better data for him from the final results in Colorado and California, however.
The lack of enthusiasm among younger voters was especially pronounced with turnout up 33 percent from 2016 among every group across Super Tuesday states.
Kraken wrote: Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:51 pmApparently there's widespread agreement among Gen Z that Biden is a pedophile. There's no shortage of pics of grabby Joe to fuel that narrative. When I try gently arguing with them, all I get is "OK boomer."
Have witnessed the same conclusion from Gen Z'ers I interact with here in CO as well. I cannot more strongly state how the perfect should not be the enemy of the good in our efforts to get the modern day GOP out of office, but it tends to fall on deaf, young ears.
If it weren't for my nephew's facebook posts, I never would've even heard the Biden-is-a-pedo thing. In fact, I googled "is biden a pedophile" to see just how big a thing it is because my nephew, a father of three, sees pedos behind every tree. You don't want to google that. Creepy Uncle Joe is definitely creepy.
Youth turnout compared to 2016 is either flat or down in a majority of states that have voted, according to the Harvard Institute of Politics, meaning young voters both form a smaller share of the overall Democratic primary vote and turned out in smaller net numbers. Sanders could end up seeing better data for him from the final results in Colorado and California, however.
The lack of enthusiasm among younger voters was especially pronounced with turnout up 33 percent from 2016 among every group across Super Tuesday states.
Funny thing is that he also pitches his friends that they're the biggest generation and can control the country, if they only vote. This at the same time that he's arguing for voting against either candidate that can win.
I see my young idealist self in that. Difference is that I was in my teens and he's pushing 30, and we weren't facing actual fascism when I was rebelling.
Who could have possibly have foreseen that Trump would try to delay the election?
Biden says he thinks Trump will try to delay the presidential election
Kate Sullivan byline
By Kate Sullivan, CNN
Updated 8:58 PM ET, Fri April 24, 2020
Washington (CNN) Former Vice President Joe Biden said Thursday he believes President Donald Trump will try to delay November's presidential election.
"Mark my words: I think he is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can't be held," Biden said at a virtual fundraiser, according to a pool report. Biden has maintained the November election should not be postponed and has previously made similar comments.
What ridiculous lies. Biden’s son Beau declined taking Joe’s Senate seat because he didn’t want to inherit it — and he thought it necessary to keep supervising a case against an incredibly horrific pediatrician pedophile.
The accusations are particularly disgusting given Trump’s public history with Epstein and the Miss America pageants. It’s his classic “accuse the other side of what you’re doing” defense.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Defiant wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:05 am
Who could have possibly have foreseen that Trump would try to delay the election?
Biden says he thinks Trump will try to delay the presidential election
Kate Sullivan byline
By Kate Sullivan, CNN
Updated 8:58 PM ET, Fri April 24, 2020
Washington (CNN) Former Vice President Joe Biden said Thursday he believes President Donald Trump will try to delay November's presidential election.
"Mark my words: I think he is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can't be held," Biden said at a virtual fundraiser, according to a pool report. Biden has maintained the November election should not be postponed and has previously made similar comments.
Don't forget the chorus of the 'very serious people' who told Joe he was a crazy alarmist. I think the world deserves at least a further 6 month moratorium on calling anyone 'alarmist' about predictions or interpretations of Trump's actions or 'words'.
Defiant wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:22 pm
I'm... not sure. I think maybe they meant "infected broken glass" (or maybe that's just how I misread it)
That's what makes the most sense to me. Variations of "I'll crawl through broken glass to vote for Biden in November" seems to be a meme that's circulating, probably as a push-back at the sense of impending voter suppression and unbridled spread of COVID-19 (hence "infected" broken glass, or my current favourite "with a vial of COVID-19 up my ass").
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Democratic strategists and supporters of Vice President Joe Biden are urging him not to debate President Donald Trump in the lead-up to Election Day, citing Trump's publicity stunts and disregard for the rules in 2016. Meanwhile Biden backers, including some conservatives, applauded the University of Notre Dame and the University of Michigan for cancelling their scheduled debates over COVID-19 concerns.
Former White House Press Secretary Joe Lockhart joined several Democratic Party strategists in bluntly advising Biden, "whatever you do, don't debate Trump." Speaking on CNN Saturday, Lockhart said Trump shouldn't be given another platform which will enable him to "repeat lies," which he said occurred in the 2016 debates against Hillary Clinton.
Laying low and letting trump hang himself every day is working fine so far. Why throw him potential lifelines? If Biden were a skilled debater I'd be persuadable, but he really has nothing to gain and a lot to lose by going head-to-head in front of the cameras.
OTOH, "Biden refuses to debate!" isn't a good look, either.
Democratic strategists and supporters of Vice President Joe Biden are urging him not to debate President Donald Trump in the lead-up to Election Day, citing Trump's publicity stunts and disregard for the rules in 2016. Meanwhile Biden backers, including some conservatives, applauded the University of Notre Dame and the University of Michigan for cancelling their scheduled debates over COVID-19 concerns.
Former White House Press Secretary Joe Lockhart joined several Democratic Party strategists in bluntly advising Biden, "whatever you do, don't debate Trump." Speaking on CNN Saturday, Lockhart said Trump shouldn't be given another platform which will enable him to "repeat lies," which he said occurred in the 2016 debates against Hillary Clinton.
Laying low and letting trump hang himself every day is working fine so far. Why throw him potential lifelines? If Biden were a skilled debater I'd be persuadable, but he really has nothing to gain and a lot to lose by going head-to-head in front of the cameras.
OTOH, "Biden refuses to debate!" isn't a good look, either.
It's bizarre to use the Clinton example as a reason *not* to debate Trump. Yeah, Trump lied, but Clinton cleaned his clock thoroughly across those debates, and Trump came across as obviously a crazy unhinged lunatic, as evidenced by the fact that Clinton's polling numbers shot up after each of those debates. I don't think that Biden's as good a debater as Clinton, but Trump hasn't become any less crazy.
I can see some reasons to decline the debates, but in general I think they're more likely to help Biden than Trump.
Biden's an OK debater (he beat Ryan in 2012, for example, and I think he held his own in the debates I saw), but even if he was a great debater, it might not be worth it (Clinton handily won the debates in 2016, and it didn't really shift the polls much in her directions, likely because everyone knew she was smarter than he is). It would put them as equals and give Trump another outlet to spout his bullshit and attacks (because these aren't real debates, they're just opportunities to spout 60-second soundbites). And there's always the possibility that Biden could have a bad night (even Obama had a bad night in one of the presidential debates).
The one positive I could see to doing it would be that it would show those undecideds who think Biden has dementia that he does not. But there are other opportunities to do that without giving Trump a microphone (eg, town halls)
Last edited by Defiant on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
El Guapo wrote:I can see some reasons to decline the debates, but in general I think they're more likely to help Biden than Trump.
I agree, but I can also see the media falling all over themselves to highlight every Biden gaffe while simultaneously praising Trump's "change in tone" the first time he successfully reads from a teleprompter.
Defiant wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:42 pm
(Clinton handily won the debates in 2016, and it didn't really shift the polls much in her directions, likely because everyone knew she was smarter than he is).
This isn't true. Clinton made large gains in the polls following the debates - in the range of 4 - 6 points. It is true that they weren't permanent, but nothing is given enough time (and that damn Comey letter).
And in general more direct public exposure to Trump tends to worsen his favorability numbers.
El Guapo wrote:I can see some reasons to decline the debates, but in general I think they're more likely to help Biden than Trump.
I agree, but I can also see the media falling all over themselves to highlight every Biden gaffe while simultaneously praising Trump's "change in tone" the first time he successfully reads from a teleprompter.
I'm concerned about this too, but FWIW the expectations issue was a problem in 2016 too, that didn't really materialize. Trump just can't speak coherently, so Biden would tend to benefit from speaking in proximity to him.
Democratic strategists and supporters of Vice President Joe Biden are urging him not to debate President Donald Trump in the lead-up to Election Day, citing Trump's publicity stunts and disregard for the rules in 2016. Meanwhile Biden backers, including some conservatives, applauded the University of Notre Dame and the University of Michigan for cancelling their scheduled debates over COVID-19 concerns.
Former White House Press Secretary Joe Lockhart joined several Democratic Party strategists in bluntly advising Biden, "whatever you do, don't debate Trump." Speaking on CNN Saturday, Lockhart said Trump shouldn't be given another platform which will enable him to "repeat lies," which he said occurred in the 2016 debates against Hillary Clinton.
Laying low and letting trump hang himself every day is working fine so far. Why throw him potential lifelines? If Biden were a skilled debater I'd be persuadable, but he really has nothing to gain and a lot to lose by going head-to-head in front of the cameras.
OTOH, "Biden refuses to debate!" isn't a good look, either.
It's bizarre to use the Clinton example as a reason *not* to debate Trump. Yeah, Trump lied, but Clinton cleaned his clock thoroughly across those debates, and Trump came across as obviously a crazy unhinged lunatic, as evidenced by the fact that Clinton's polling numbers shot up after each of those debates. I don't think that Biden's as good a debater as Clinton, but Trump hasn't become any less crazy.
I can see some reasons to decline the debates, but in general I think they're more likely to help Biden than Trump.
I tend to agree that Clinton is a bad example. There was some bump each time even if they were short-lived as I remember and maybe didn't matter in the end. People somehow have the attention span of rabbits. You could make the case in 2016 it strengthened his hold over the simpletons. Those people are dying for the cult now so that isn't an effect. Unless the debate is held in the brief upcoming days before the election it isn't likely to move the needle in any meaningful way. Have the debate. Don't have the debate. *Shrug*.
Probably not a great sign that you need opportunities to show undecideds that your Presidential candidate doesn't have dementia.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:33 am
Probably not a great sign that you need opportunities to show undecideds that your Presidential candidate doesn't have dementia.
I'd say a completely false attack against you is a normal sign that you're an opponent of Trump. Or a Democratic presidential candidate.
RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:33 am
Probably not a great sign that you need opportunities to show undecideds that your Presidential candidate doesn't have dementia.
I'd say a completely false attack against you is a normal sign that you're an opponent of Trump. Or a Democratic presidential candidate.
I'm not suggesting that it's a true attack, but you invite this sort of thing I suppose when you run a 77-year old Presidential candidate. And the 74-year old opponent is already clearly suffering from the beginning stages.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
